Fares getting steeper?

[MamaParrotHead]

Just returned from our most recent cruise, so to ease the post cruise depression, obviously, I'm looking into our next trip. :) I had read an article around New Year's that airfare in general may be getting more expensive for 2011, and am wondering if the state of SHOCK that I'm in (after looking into some fares for November) has to do with that. Or whether the fares are high just because it's relatively far out there (from now to November). I'm talking almost double what I paid for my ticket for this past trip (MLI to MIA). Even in checking all the Chicago airports to FLL the cheapest fare I could find was well over $300 (for 11/4/11-11/13/11).

 

Any of you "in the know" know anything about fares rising that drastically and/or whether that is a permanent place the airfare market is parked in?

[CruiserBruce]

Demand is up. Fuel prices are up. Need I say more?

[frugaltravel]

Demand is up. Fuel prices are up. Need I say more?

 

Yes, you could say supply is also down.

 

Any of you "in the know" know anything about fares rising that drastically and/or whether that is a permanent place the airfare market is parked in?

 

If anyone were really "in the know" they would not be able to share the information publicly. Insider information is not allowed by law to be shared unless it is shared publicly to all at the same time. I don't think sharing on FT for the first time would meet this rule :)

[MamaParrotHead]

I obviously didn't want anyone to reveal anything that would get them arrested, but I know there are several active board members who follow the industry closely and would be better informed than I in regards to policies, mergers, pricing strategies, things of that nature.

[frugaltravel]

I obviously didn't want anyone to reveal anything that would get them arrested, but I know there are several active board members who follow the industry closely and would be better informed than I in regards to policies, mergers, pricing strategies, things of that nature.

 

My point was that anyone who says they are "in the know" is just guessing.

[FlyerTalker]

Three different kinds of "in the know". First are those who work in the industry within the revenue management sphere or their superiors. Those are the corporate "insiders", and as frugal mentioned, there are restrictions on what they can say privately.

 

The second are those who get their knowledge from tracking and studying publicly available information. Greatam and her pricing analysts fit into that group, along with other industry "watchers".

 

The third are those who take personal experience & research and then extrapolate into the general. You can put me into that group with other SWAGers.

 

My own take FWIW: Demand is up, Jet A is up, seat inventory is down to flat. Econ 101 tends to confirm my own observations that pricing to the consumer is up. Not to say that some good bargains can't be found - just that they tend to favor those with flexible schedules, not cruisers flying to catch a ship. So cruisers need to keep their eyes open, their options flexible, and be ready and able to pull the trigger when an opportunity arises.

[MamaParrotHead]

Thanks, FT. That's the kind of info I was looking for. Any guesses as to whether or not this is a permanent/long term market situation? Technically I'm not even looking to buy for another year or so, but I'm debating between booking two sailings and trying to notice difference between early November and early December fares.

[kenish]

IMHO (emphasis on the 'O'), fares worldwide will not dip back down even if fuel prices ease. Not likely as the global economy reawakens. Many small, very low-cost airlines are no longer around...combined with mergers there are fewer airlines out there. About 20% of seats are parked in the desert. Airlines are becoming profitable with the higher fares and numerous fees....why would they give up a profitable pricing model?

 

Even though higher fares are the "new normal", one suggestion is to track the fares of interest and be ready to "buy on the dip" at a moment's notice. There's been several recent posts from people who were successful.

 

Without a crystal ball, I'd speculate that early November will have lower fares than December. It's not a busy time for leisure or holiday travel.