Christmas Airfare... Book Now or Wait for Southwest?

[trabeler]

We've got a Panama Canal transit cruise booked and need these flights:

 

IAH-SAN 20 Dec 2013 (anything after noon)

FLL-IAH 5 Jan 2014 (after 11 am to allow time for disembarkation)

 

I can book now on UA nonstop for $478 per person (one stop would save maybe $30 which isn't worth it to us).

 

OR... I can wait for Southwest. Unknown exactly when they will release Dec/Jan, but likely late April or May?

 

Hoping to get some experience from people as to whether or not it might be worth waiting. I tried to get a feel for what Southwest charges for the same cities over a holiday period. Looking over Memorial Day week (5/24 to 6/2) was about $465. But looking during non-holiday periods was around $350-380.

 

Our desired dates are certainly high season, so I'm wondering if it would be better to just get the UA tickets for $478 now and quit worrying, particularly if Southwest would end up charging about the same.

 

Does anyone have similar experiences they could offer to help us decide?

[6rugrats]

Well, Southwest doesn't fly from IAH, so if that's important to you, take that into consideration.

 

You can't accurately use past fares to know exactly how future fares will be priced, but from February through September 2013, the lowest fares on Southwest for HOU-SAN seem to be around $153.00. I don't know why they would be lower for travel during a holiday period.

 

Fares FLL-HOU seem to range from $170 to $357; average fare looks around $204.

 

No one can predict what prices would be for your dates, but using the above information, it looks like $204 + $153 = $357.00. But of course, it could be much higher! Who knows?

 

Personally, I'd book the UA flight and be done with it. It's nonstop, it leaves from IAH and you won't have to worry about it anymore

[waterbug123]

I can book now on UA nonstop for $478 per person (one stop would save maybe $30 which isn't worth it to us).

 

OR... I can wait for Southwest. Unknown exactly when they will release Dec/Jan, but likely late April or May?

 

 

A couple of questions to ask yourself, since there is no way to know for sure what Southwest fares will be when they open up booking for your dates:

 

1. If $478 was the best you could get, would you be willing to pay it?

 

2. How much MORE than $478 would you be willing to pay? In other words, if you wait to book Southwest, at what price would you say "no, that's too much."

 

3. If you wait for Southwest and the fares are above your deal breaker price point, and you go back to United and their fares have also gone up above your deal breaker price point, are you willing to cancel the cruise?

 

The answers to those 3 questions should help you decide whether to go ahead and pay $478, or hold out for a price that may be either lower OR higher than that.

[greatam]

Just a few words about Southwest pricing. Their business model is based on selling the CHEAPEST ticket on any given day WHEN their schedule opens.

 

Does this mean their tickets are ALWAYS the cheapest??? FAR from it.

 

Example: United, AA, US, Virgin America, etc. etc. sells tickets for $400 RT BEFORE WN opens their schedule. In essence, when WN opens the schedule, the CHEAP tickets on other airlines are gone. And this is especially true during high demand peak seasons.

 

At the time WN opens their schedule, the CHEAPEST ticket on any other airline is $475.00. WN prices at $450.00. YES, it is cheaper ON THAT DAY. But you could have saved $50 per ticket buying from the OTHER airlines 3 months BEFORE WN opens the schedule.

 

From a business standpoint, WHY would WN price their tickets BELOW other airline's LOWEST price? They KNOW there are no more "cheap" tickets available.

 

We buy between 450-600+ airlines tickets per year. From MAJOR markets, it is VERY rare for WN to come in under what we can buy airline tickets for BEFORE WN opens the schedule.

 

Buy the tickets you have found NOW. As 6rugrats posted, you have a FIXED price vs pie in the sky. And as waterbug123 posted, how high are you WILLING to pay with an unknown commodity? As your Mom or Grandmother repeatedly stated, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush about 90% of the time.

[parody]

A chart of the recent fare history between IAH and SJU is:

 

While it may be difficult to forecast exactly when and how fares will change in the future, how airfares fluctuate in a market are "generally" fairly constant. If these are round trip fares, this site is saying that the average airfares over this period is $481. So, if you pay $479, you are paying about the average. But note that once a month, fares fluctuate about $100 higher and lower than the average.

[trabeler]

Thanks to all for the good comments, which have pretty much validated my thinking on this. We went ahead and got the tickets today. Although it might be possible to save some money by waiting, the downside risk and effort involved isn't worth it.