Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[Rhea98]

And regular KSF with Free upgrades

Booking Window: 7/1/14 - 8/2/14

http://www.ncl.com/promo/q3terms

 

All great promos to watch for. If anyone is interested in the POA cruise I referenced earlier, it includes free upgrades as well as KSF. Hey, I need to go back and look at that cruise for real!

 

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[dalgirl]

A really good summary of booking strategies. If you cruise a lot and book often you will already understand the ins and outs of cabin selection, promotions, and final payment options, etc.

 

My main strategy is to book at the maximum time out - many times for the lowest price up to final booking and the maximum perks including large amounts of OBC offered. The cruiselines wants to hook you in early and you get the cabin you want. I do check prices up to final payment, but most of the time the original price and perks are better - booking early is just as much a strategy as booking at the last minute and you can plan better.

 

And I always contact my TA the last week before we sail to see if there is a free upgrade - many times there are. Of the three inside cabins we have booked in the past, two were upgraded to balcony cabins - one on the POA to a large balcony - at no extra cost.

 

I hope that those who complain that they were "ripped off" with a certain fare change, promotion, etc. will be a little more thoughtful in their vitriol towards the cruiselines. It is business: you win some and you may loose some, but no matter what once you commit and board the ship you should forget the price and have a wonderful time.

[Shawnino]

I hope that those who complain that they were "ripped off" with a certain fare change, promotion, etc. will be a little more thoughtful in their vitriol towards the cruiselines. It is business: you win some and you may loose some, but no matter what once you commit and board the ship you should forget the price and have a wonderful time.

 

Yes, and no, for me.

 

I agree that once onboard everyone should put aside thoughts of what he paid and have a good time.

 

But I'm OK with a little vitriol because in my opinion getting a good deal really shouldn't be this hard. PP5 put a lot of work into the initial post and responses, and other people including you have chimed in with useful info. I'm grateful for all of it. And I use my education and past experience to put in the leg work to come to Cruise Critic and another fishy site daily to try to maximize my experience while minimizing my cost.

 

Many people I'll be cruising with won't have heard of Cruise Critic, and I'll bet 90% won't have seen this thread. A lot of these people will have paid hundreds or thousands of dollars more than they might have. If somebody wants to get sour at how complex the landscape is, I'm OK with that. I really appreciate all the light this thread is shining, but my goodness it really shouldn't be this hard. That this thread is necessary, in a way, is a sad statement about the industry.

[holula]

pokerpro5, this was a great read! I'm currently watching a studio on the Epic for December so this was very helpful. :)

[Rhea98]

pokerpro5, this was a great read! I'm currently watching a studio on the Epic for December so this was very helpful. :)

 

The first week of Dec is crazy good ($349. with any of the available discounts). I'd book it for myself if I could get away with it-DH might object as we're on the Nov 16 cruise. Hope the one you're looking at does the same or better.

 

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[dalgirl]

Yes, and no, for me.

 

I agree that once onboard everyone should put aside thoughts of what he paid and have a good time.

 

But I'm OK with a little vitriol because in my opinion getting a good deal really shouldn't be this hard. PP5 put a lot of work into the initial post and responses, and other people including you have chimed in with useful info. I'm grateful for all of it. And I use my education and past experience to put in the leg work to come to Cruise Critic and another fishy site daily to try to maximize my experience while minimizing my cost.

 

Many people I'll be cruising with won't have heard of Cruise Critic, and I'll bet 90% won't have seen this thread. A lot of these people will have paid hundreds or thousands of dollars more than they might have. If somebody wants to get sour at how complex the landscape is, I'm OK with that. I really appreciate all the light this thread is shining, but my goodness it really shouldn't be this hard. That this thread is necessary, in a way, is a sad statement about the industry.

 

Buying a car, a house, timing airline tickets, shopping at the grocery store, or shopping at the mall etc. requires homework, patients, and some gambling spirit. This is not a statement about the cruising industry, it is about all aspects of consumerism. Life is complex - it is only simple for those with a lot of money who don't have to look at price tags unless they want to, or those that don't care to get the best bargain, they just want to buy and go. Good for them if it makes them happy. For those who don't know about these sites or using strategies to get the best deals, then that is their choice. I found the site, you found the site. I bet you know people that pay whatever price in on the tag, and if that makes them happy, then I am not going to worry that they paid to much. I worry about what I pay - and hope to sometimes pass on my experience to those who have taken the trouble to try to also save some money, find the best excursions, and maximize their vacation experience. For those 90% that don't know or care to negotiate for good deals, then no harm no foul - ignorance can be bliss;)

 

And for my friends and family who know how obsessive I am about all aspects of consumerism, who are (IMO) also too lazy to do any homework themselves, I am the go to person for saving money. I have saved them a lot of money too:p

[pokerpro5]

A really good summary of booking strategies. If you cruise a lot and book often you will already understand the ins and outs of cabin selection, promotions, and final payment options, etc.

 

My main strategy is to book at the maximum time out - many times for the lowest price up to final booking and the maximum perks including large amounts of OBC offered. The cruiselines wants to hook you in early and you get the cabin you want. I do check prices up to final payment, but most of the time the original price and perks are better - booking early is just as much a strategy as booking at the last minute and you can plan better.

 

And I always contact my TA the last week before we sail to see if there is a free upgrade - many times there are. Of the three inside cabins we have booked in the past, two were upgraded to balcony cabins - one on the POA to a large balcony - at no extra cost.

 

I hope that those who complain that they were "ripped off" with a certain fare change, promotion, etc. will be a little more thoughtful in their vitriol towards the cruiselines. It is business: you win some and you may loose some, but no matter what once you commit and board the ship you should forget the price and have a wonderful time.

 

I'm glad you enjoyed my post, and thanks for the compliment.

 

I would like to add to something you wrote above:

 

"Booking early is just as much a strategy as booking at the last minute and you can plan better."

 

For the most part, this isn't true if you are looking to score the best prices and won't be happy with simply upgrading at the same price.

 

Booking early is good to do if ANY of the following apply:

 

1) You want a suite.

-or-

2) You are going to be on a European itinerary, an itinerary that doesn't sail often (e.g. Panama Canal), or a Christmas/New Years itinerary.

-or-

3) It is really important to you to have a specific stateroom.

-or-

4) You don't mind spending too much for your room now, if you can upgrade for free (or very cheaply) later.

 

It sounds like #4 applies to you, and if you're happy with that strategy, great.

 

However, if you are on a typical sailing and want a balcony category or lower, the best booking strategy is indeed to wait 14-55 days prior to sailing and closely price watch, as I described in my OP.

 

You do raise a good point, though.

 

If you are sure you want a balcony, what's the harm in booking early with an inside cabin, and simply upgrading to a bargain-priced balcony for the price difference when the prices drop? Doesn't that work out to the same thing?

 

It can.

 

But it also reduces your flexibility. For example, if the balconies sell well and never come down in price, now you're stuck with an expensive inside cabin, even if other inside cabins came way down in price. Or what if the balcony rooms drop so low that the price you paid for the inside cabin is MORE than that of the balcony? You don't get refunded the difference.

 

And what of promotions? When you upgrade, you usually don't get the existing promotion that comes with it, and often you lose the promotion you had before.

 

Also, upgrades are not a right. NCL can refuse them at their discretion, or charge more than simply the price difference if they want. You also never know when this policy might change.

 

The bottom line is that you're better off not purchasing a room you don't want a a price you don't want, with the belief you will upgrade later. It's better to just wait until the time of the expected price drops, and buy from there.

 

I agree with your final statement that cruisers shouldn't be mad at NCL for "ripping them off" because they paid a higher price than others for their cruise. NCL is a business and can charge what it wants, when it wants. It is up to the customer to recognize pricing patterns and use this to their advantage.

[pokerpro5]

BTW, as an informed cruiser, you should be HAPPY that NCL has this highly fluctuating pricing structure.

 

If NCL simply took an average of its prices paid for each stateroom and kept them constant, the informed consumers would lose out, while the "I'll just book this cruise and not bother to look at what happens later" people would gain.

 

This is similar to the practice of no-haggle car pricing, as seen with Saturn when it existed.

 

I had a friend brag to me that she bought a Saturn and that the experience was so great "because they have no-haggle pricing."

 

I told her that no-haggle pricing is only good for people who are poor at negotiating with car dealerships, because it simply takes an average of what price they would get for each car and makes it constant for everyone. Thus, anyone good at haggling with car dealers ends up getting a bad deal on a Saturn.

 

One-size-fits-all pricing is rarely good for the consumer, as it takes out the loopholes and quirks where clever buyers could have otherwise taken advantage.

Edited October 21, 2014 by pokerpro5

[pokerpro5]

Some observations about suite pricing.... I've been watching prices on the Haven suites for low season (Nov/Dec) sailings for the last six years, since I first became aware of them.

 

Prior to about 2.5 years ago, on underbooked sailings, NCL tended not to drop their public (internet) prices for suites very much, but kept them well above any sort of market clearing level. They then relied on the "upsell fairy" to fill the suites in what were, in effect, private unreported transactions at levels which were presumably well below the public prices.

 

First anecdote: Five years ago I saw that 8 out of 8 H4 (then known as A3) cabins were available a month before a 7-day December Miami cruise. The cabins had been listed initially at $4999pp and never fell below $4099pp, even though there were no takers. All 8 of the cabins were sold between T-4 weeks and T-3 weeks, most likely through the upsell fairy, at least 2 of which went for $1199pp (first hand knowledge).

 

More recently, NCL seem to have moved towards a descending-price ("Dutch") auction model where the internet prices of the suites drop sporadically beginning about 6-8 weeks before the cruise, more or less corresponding to the beginning of the penalty cancellation period. From NCL's standpoint, this has the benefit of broadcasting the fare reductions to a larger audience than was possible with upsell fairy's one-on-one telephone calls, thus increasing the chances that they'd match with potential customers at any given price level. However, it has the disadvantage of broadcasting the fare reductions to all previous purchasers who are then likely to want some form of compensation, and also of broadcasting more realistic clearing prices to keen observers who are then advised to wait even if they were willing to pay the full asking price.

 

Second anecdote: Two years ago I watched a H1 on a 7-day December Miami cruise go from $9999pp to $7999pp at T-8 weeks to $4299pp at T-2 days. It went for $3870pp after factoring in a 10% AARP discount (again, first hand knowledge).

 

Anyway, I just wanted to offer a counterpoint to the conventional wisdom that cruise ships fill up from the top and bottom. On certain cruises the relative demand for suites simply isn't as great as on others and lower prices can be achieved by waiting. However, what you gain in lower expected prices you give up in certainty; I outsmarted myself this year by not booking a cruise early enough only to watch the Haven fill up completely four months before sailing. The cruises on either side still have 5/8 and 3/8 H4's available. Go figure.

 

Interesting anecdotes.

 

Regarding your second one, are you saying that you saw a price of $9999 go down to $4299 on the website, when it was 2 days prior to sailing?

 

I guess this can occur because $4299 per person is still a lot of money (most cruisers won't pay that, no matter what room they're getting), and if it's 2 days away, perhaps they felt this massive drop was necessary when the upsell fairy couldn't get it moved.

[jmele999]

Very interesting discussion so far.

 

We primarily book suites and we have always found that the price is the lowest right after the itinerary is released. By the lowest price, I mean the actual price of the suite in comparison to the amount of OBC received. It is true that prices might drop close to sailing date, but then you might lose your OBC.

 

I would be the first one to admit that our strategy does not work for everyone, but it works for us as we see having OBC as a discount on the total price of our cruise.

[pieshops]

I started out with our upcoming jade cruise coming in a few weeks with 3 inside cabins (2 for me and wife, one for 2 kids and one for my mother) at a total of just under $6000 total when booked over a year ago, then moved up to a 2 bedroom regular suite and one inside cabin when the prices dropped for the same exact price for both cabins. The when KSF was going on moved all 5 of us into a haven 2 bedroom for a total of $5500. Now that same Haven cabin is $7888. Also got to keep my 400 dollar ship board credit and also have 200 shipboard credit from my NCL credit card.

 

I am very happy, that is why i check prices on a daily basis.

[havenfan]

Regarding your second one, are you saying that you saw a price of $9999 go down to $4299 on the website, when it was 2 days prior to sailing?

 

I guess this can occur because $4299 per person is still a lot of money (most cruisers won't pay that, no matter what room they're getting), and if it's 2 days away, perhaps they felt this massive drop was necessary when the upsell fairy couldn't get it moved.

 

I did watch the price drop from $9999 to $4299, but it didn't happen in one step. The price was $9999 about seven months out when I first began watching, fluctuated between $7999 and $9999 for several months, was at $7999 at about eight weeks out, dropped about $500 a week for several weeks, stood at $4999 one week before the cruise, and then went to $4299 on the Friday before a Sunday sailing. I was told by the butler during the cruise that there were several disappointed Haven dwellers who'd been hoping to dicker about the cabin at the pier (totally second-hand, I never discussed this with any guests on the cruise).

 

There was some discussion that, two or three years ago, NCL stopped upselling Garden Villas. The butler also told me that the GVs occasionally sailed empty, especially on the European sailings on the Jade.

Edited October 21, 2014 by havenfan

[havenfan]

I started out with our upcoming jade cruise coming in a few weeks with 3 inside cabins (2 for me and wife, one for 2 kids and one for my mother) at a total of just under $6000 total when booked over a year ago, then moved up to a 2 bedroom regular suite and one inside cabin when the prices dropped for the same exact price for both cabins. The when KSF was going on moved all 5 of us into a haven 2 bedroom for a total of $5500. Now that same Haven cabin is $7888. Also got to keep my 400 dollar ship board credit and also have 200 shipboard credit from my NCL credit card.

 

You've contributed to the other thread I started so you might recall that I got stuck when the Haven sold out on my Jade cruise. I'm guessing that it sold out on yours as well. However, I'm curious, how would the pricing for 3 inside cabins or the 2 bedroom regular suite and one inside cabin today compare with when you made those bookings? That's assuming, of course, that there's still availability in those categories.

[dalgirl]

My point really was that there are many advantages to booking cruises early and it can also be the best price - don't necessarily expect all cruises (with exception of suites) to go down:

 

Our POA cruise was booked 18 months in advance based on a good promotion at the time and it never went down before final payment. We booked inside based on advise on these boards that it is was so port intensive it wasn't worth upgrading to the balcony. It is an expensive cruise no matter when you book or what category. It never went down. I only called about the free balcony upgrade because, why not? If the answer was no, I would have been just as happy - I booked it, I live with it. But the price was not the factor, they happened to not have sold the family balcony on the bow.

 

And I have seen suites at incredibly low prices at the last minute on some itineraries. It happens.

 

Your strategies are very sound if your only goal is for a low price. And all cabins in a category are not created equal. It's like booking guarantee cabins - a sometimes very economical choice. But don't do it if you aren't comfortable getting the worst cabin in that category. And don't complain.

 

As for getting those last minute fares, that is great if you can take off at a moments notice or if you aren't nervous booking your flights, hotels, etc. and getting maybe an inside cabin when you were waiting for that balcony price to go down - balconies tend to sell out so that the last minute cabins are mostly insides. If your goal is to get on the ship, be prepared for whatever you get.

 

I see a lot of value in OPs post and hope that newbies will read it and get some good pointers on bookings, and maybe an explanation about why these things fluctuate so much. But keep in mind that price is not the only consideration. Just as timing, price and perks need to be weighed into booking equations, so does personal comfort level in cabin category choices and your personality for taking off at a moments notice.

[pieshops]

You've contributed to the other thread I started so you might recall that I got stuck when the Haven sold out on my Jade cruise. I'm guessing that it sold out on yours as well. However, I'm curious, how would the pricing for 3 inside cabins or the 2 bedroom regular suite and one inside cabin today compare with when you made those bookings? That's assuming, of course, that there's still availability in those categories.

 

There is actually still availability for the 2 br haven suite, that is the 7888 price for 5, 2000 more then I paid.

 

The price for the insides is considerably less also, i could probably get the 3 cabins for about 3000.

 

But I do not look at it like that ( probably should for financial reasons though LOL) I figure I was willing to pay the original 6000 for the cruise so if I can get a Haven for less then I am ahead. Probably rationalizing in my mind and the smart thing to do would take the price reduction and stay in the inside but what the hell, like I said I was willing to pay that price originally so in my mind I am ahead.

[havenfan]

There is actually still availability for the 2 br haven suite, that is the 7888 price for 5, 2000 more then I paid.

 

The price for the insides is considerably less also, i could probably get the 3 cabins for about 3000.

 

But I do not look at it like that ( probably should for financial reasons though LOL) I figure I was willing to pay the original 6000 for the cruise so if I can get a Haven for less then I am ahead. Probably rationalizing in my mind and the smart thing to do would take the price reduction and stay in the inside but what the hell, like I said I was willing to pay that price originally so in my mind I am ahead.

 

We've each got our own preferences and heuristics. Some people have a budget and try maximize what they can get for it. Some people have a target product and try to minimize what they have to pay for it. You use the former strategy, I use the latter. If you've ever studied optimization, you know that both strategies can put you on the efficient frontier. Bravo for us!

 

A question: You said that you originally paid $6000 but that the final fare was $5500. Were you able to get the $500 because the KSF sale was in July, i.e., before the penalties?

 

Btw, your situation supports my theory that the KSF in July caused the run on Haven suites:) I mentioned in my first post on this thread that I've been following suites on off-season cruises for several years. In each of the past four years the pre-Christmas Jade cruise has had at least 5 Haven two bedrooms available a month before the cruise. This year it was effectively sold out (GTY only) in August.

[pieshops]

We've each got our own preferences and heuristics. Some people have a budget and try maximize what they can get for it. Some people have a target product and try to minimize what they have to pay for it. You use the former strategy, I use the latter. If you've ever studied optimization, you know that both strategies can put you on the efficient frontier. Bravo for us!

 

A question: You said that you originally paid $6000 but that the final fare was $5500. Were you able to get the $500 because the KSF sale was in July, i.e., before the penalties?

 

Btw, your situation supports my theory that the KSF in July caused the run on Haven suites:) I mentioned in my first post on this thread that I've been following suites on off-season cruises for several years. In each of the past four years the pre-Christmas Jade cruise has had at least 5 Haven two bedrooms available a month before the cruise. This year it was effectively sold out (GTY only) in August.

 

Yes at that time of the KSF I changed all to the haven hence not paying for the 3 extra people in the cabin and removing the other cabins. Bravo I agree

[JohnIreland]

So how low will a haven suite go ?

 

The 1/11 Jewel cruise (11 days away) still has all 8 x H4 cabins available.

[havenfan]

So how low will a haven suite go ?

 

The 1/11 Jewel cruise (11 days away) still has all 8 x H4 cabins available.

 

The answer to the question is, of course: it depends:)

 

In general, I've found the sailings between Thanksgiving and Christmas to be the cheapest of the year, followed by the pre-Thanksgiving cruises. Similarly, I've found the Jewel and Jade to be cheaper than the Gem or the Pearl. I don't know if this is because of the ports they sail from or because they're the two oldest ships. I've not tracked any of the newer ships because I think I prefer the small Haven in the Jewel class. And the Garden Villas.

 

The lowest priced examples I can think of have been $4299pp for a GV on a 7-day Jewel sailing out of Miami and $4999pp for a GV on a 10-day Jade sailing out of Venice. In both cases these were NCL's internet prices on pre-Christmas cruises where I dummy booked and "verified" availability.

 

For H4s I've seen as low as $1499pp on a 7-day Jewel sailing out of Miami.

 

For SCs (I know it's not Haven, but I have a family so I'm still interested), I've seen as low as $1199 on a 7-day Jewel sailing out of Miami.

 

These prices were all before any promotions and TA benefits and, of course, extra guests or port charges.

 

For the sailing and cabin you mentioned, my best guess is that it might drop another $150pp by late next week. Please let me emphasize: this is just a guess.

 

I'll mention another thing that might affect you with this booking. I have observed that, on sailings with lots of suite availability near the end, pretty much all the suites will disappear off the website over a 24 hour period. This after no movement for months. My interpretation of this observation is that the upsell fairy goes into high gear for that sailing on those days. Unfortunately, I haven't detected any pattern for when that happens beyond that I've seen it start as early as T-10 days and I've seen it start as late as T-3 days.

 

The upsell fairy will, of course, offer prices below what's shown on the website to those fortunate enough to get a call.

 

So, if you are gambling man, you might consider waiting for a call from the upsell fairy. My guess is that she'll offer H4s for something south of $1499pp to the lucky ones.

 

If you're not happy with the $1999 that's showing now and are willing to take a bit of a chance you might wait until late next week and hope for an across-the-board price drop on the cruise. But I'd check twice a day and, if you see any movement in the suites, decide right away whether you're happy with the price.

 

I hope this helps. Good luck.

[JohnIreland]

Thanks for that.

 

I am currently booked into an forward penthouse , so figures crossed on the fairy doing her stuff. :D

[havenfan]

Thanks for that.

 

I am currently booked into an forward penthouse , so figures crossed on the fairy doing her stuff. :D

 

Wow, another early bird. If you're intent on this course, then my actual guess for a H4 upsell on this sailing would be between $1199 and $1499. If you are so fortunate as to get the call, would you mind sharing when it happens? The date you get the call, I mean, not the price.

 

Also, have you booked through NCL or with a TA?

[holula]

The first week of Dec is crazy good ($349. with any of the available discounts). I'd book it for myself if I could get away with it-DH might object as we're on the Nov 16 cruise. Hope the one you're looking at does the same or better.

 

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

 

I'm looking at the 12/14 sailing. I leave on another line on 12/21 from Miami so it would be perfect. There are still a ton of cabins available!

 

 

 

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[sunflower47]

Thank you for taking the time to post the information. It helps to understand why the prices do change.

 

I have been watching an Alaskan Cruise on the Pearl for several months and it just keeps going up. I think it started at around $579/pp and today it is $1029/pp for the cheapest cabin.

 

I was waiting to take my first cruise before booking it. Two reasons: 1-To see if I like cruising and 2-To get the Future Cruise Credit and use that toward booking the Alaskan Cruise.

 

Now I am wishing I had just booked it in the beginning.

 

I am hoping it will go down again.

[freshfish2day]

I wish I read this post before I booked my NCL trip, I would have save so much money. My trip is coming in Dec, 2014 and I have been observing the price dropping down but I still can't get my cabin up grade. I am so frushtrated that I lost my excitement about this trip. Thanks for the posting

[dalgirl]

I wish I read this post before I booked my NCL trip, I would have save so much money. My trip is coming in Dec, 2014 and I have been observing the price dropping down but I still can't get my cabin up grade. I am so frushtrated that I lost my excitement about this trip. Thanks for the posting

 

After final payment you are pretty much locked in. If it is during the holiday you may be totally out of luck, but since it is dropping most likely that is not the case. Call your PCC or TA the week that you are to leave and see about getting an upgrade - you may be pleasantly surprised.