Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[Mandy923]

Wow! A 4yr old thread revived! Still invaluable info.

[BirdTravels]

16 hours ago, btracing03234 said:

Wow! You put a lot of thought and effort into this and it is appreciated. Thank you.

This is a 5 year old thread. The issue with posting to it is that some of the information is no longer valid. And it confuses people. Be careful of thread dates before you post to them. 

[olya1972]

Now, that the final payment date is 120 days out, how does it change price drops? Is new 55 day mark becomes 90 days out?

[pokerpro5]

7 hours ago, olya1972 said:

Now, that the final payment date is 120 days out, how does it change price drops? Is new 55 day mark becomes 90 days out?

 

A lot of the info I posted 5 years ago is no longer applicable to 2019, so please be aware of that.

 

Regarding the change to final payment date, the 55 day mark is no longer the time to start looking.  Indeed, 90 days out is when you should start, and you should continue looking all the way to about 14 days out.

 

The one positive thing about this change (which otherwise mostly hurts the customer) is that the price drops will happen sooner, thus giving you more time to grab reasonably priced flights.

 

It is still wise to wait to book non-high-demand cruises until a month AFTER final payment date, for the reasons I described.  However, the new CEO is not as room-dump-happy as the previous one, so this isn't as much of a slam dunk as it used to be.

 

I haven't been on an NCL cruise since late 2017 due to health issues, but if I were to be booking one today, I would first check if the cruise is rare/popular (i.e. does it typically sell out way in advance?), and if not, then I wouldn't book until 90 days out minimum.

 

BTW, this only applies to balconies, oceanviews, and insides.  It does NOT apply to minisuites and above.

[olya1972]

Thank you for the response. The cruise I am looking at is that to Bermuda from NYC during 4th of July week. As I understand, this is a popular cruise. However, yesterday was a final payment date and price for balcony cabins dropped $250 per person. Simultaneously, instead of " take five promos with balcony" they switched back to " take two promos with balcony cabin". Despite the drop, price is very expensive ( it's NCL Escape). I don't know what to do. On one hand we are day post final payment with $500 savings and numerous cabins show as available. On the other hand, it's a popular week and expensive itinerary. Should I wait for 90 days? If they decide to bring back " take all five promos with balcony cabin" promo for this sailing, will the price jump back up? What would you do?

[pokerpro5]

Holiday weeks can be tough to figure out.  Bermuda-NYC is NOT a rare itinerary by any means, so it's only a matter of the date.

 

However, I will say that a price drop indicates that they are selling far below expectation.

 

This is NOT related to the promos going from five to two.  The promos are NCL-wide, not just for this itinerary (though sometimes certain itineraries are excluded.)  The change likely occurred simply due to the other promo expiring, and the two "free" items being the new (and inferior) promo.  It is unclear if the five promos will return soon, but it might.  FYI, you get the promos available at the time of booking, and they will NEVER make exceptions to that.

 

On the bright side, if the "get 5" promo comes back, it will NOT likely make the price spike.

 

At this point, I would wait.  The price decline means that they aren't selling well.  They usually will NOT make such a decline before final payment date!  This is a good sign for you.

Of course, this is gambling to some degree.  If you're worried about being shut out of a balcony cabin completely, you can always call NCL every so often and ask how many balcony cabins are available, and they'll usually tell you.

[olya1972]

Pokerpro5. Thank you again. Hope your health issues are better and you'll be sailing soon.

[marktwothousand]

This also doesn’t apply to studios as they are limited special inventory. I bought two studios yesterday and the remaining cabins dropped about $50 in price after I paid. 40 days out on a west coast sailing. 

Edited March 12, 2019 by marktwothousand