Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[relic2]

OP, I have seen that balcony prices for my January 16 POA cruise dropped significantly after final payment. (I wouldn't have benefitted as we had booked rear facing balconies and we wanted 4 cabins together) So, I guess it boils down to how much of a gambler are you? A $300 OBC would be hard to beat. Good luck, and enjoy your cruise.

[olya1972]

OP, I have seen that balcony prices for my January 16 POA cruise dropped significantly after final payment. (I wouldn't have benefitted as we had booked rear facing balconies and we wanted 4 cabins together) So, I guess it boils down to how much of a gambler are you? A $300 OBC would be hard to beat. Good luck, and enjoy your cruise.

Thank You, Relic2. This cruise's final payment was few weeks ago and it didn't drop at all, though still showing a lot of available cabins. I don't know myself how much of a gambler I am. Never played in casino in my life.:)

[hawkeyetlse]

Any other thoughts? Such a dramatic price difference between 01/22/16 and 01/12/16 and especially 01/03/16 sailings make me uncomfortable. I feel that any day 01/22/16 sailing price will drop significantly.

Looks like a pretty good gamble to me. No reason I can see for that date to remain more expensive than the rest of January. But how well do you know this TA? Do they always offer some OBC, even when it's not Black Friday? About how much?

 

I don't know if there is still any 55-day effect. The magic number for you is 30 days, because if you wait past that date, you lose the UBP, and there is no way the price will drop enough to make up for that (assuming that you are interested in the UBP).

[olya1972]

Good point. Yes, they do offer when the price is high. Once price becomes bottom dollar, there is no OBC. I am interested in UBP. SDP would be nice to have as well. But once I get both of those I really don't need that much of an OBC (plus I will be getting some through using NCL credit card). By the way, for all sailings 6 days and longer departing before Feb, 29th, 16 NCL now allows to use two Next Cruise Certificate to book one cabin ( a promo).

What happen to 55 day effect? Did they change cancellation rules?

Edited November 27, 2015 by olya1972

[hawkeyetlse]

Good point. Yes, they do offer when the price is high. Once price becomes bottom dollar, there is no OBC.

In that case, you will need a price drop of at least $200 per person… Which is not inconceivable, I suppose. I think I would wait. Because I would rather have money off the cruise fare than lots of OBC (I think you are saying the same thing).

 

The two deposits offer is a great deal! :)

What happen to 55 day effect? Did they change cancellation rules?

The cancellation policy has not changed, you still enter the 50% cancellation penalty phase at 55 days for most cruises. So maybe it still works, but there is a whole new factor this year, since they also started using the constant (and constantly changing) promotional offers to manipulate buying behavior, and this interacts with pricing in ways that probably no one around here has fully figured out yet.

Edited November 27, 2015 by hawkeyetlse

[olya1972]

Hawkeyetsle, Thank You for your responce, I appreciate it.

[mamagina]

I have a cabin (Balcony, $1,359 per person + tax/fees) on hold for Gem 10 days Eastern Carib. sailing out of NYC and I don't need to fly. Hold includes Black Friday special from online TA ($300 OBC) and two out of four perks from NCL. Ship looks 1/2 full (when trying mock bookings on any balcony categories). I don't know what to do, should I just go ahead and book or let go of hold and wait till 55 day mark (which is tomorrow). Identical sailing before this one (Jan., 12th) is $160 less, and one before that (Jan., 3rd) is $259 less PER PERSON for same balcony cabin. Any insights appreciated.:confused:

 

We did that cruise in 2015 and I watched and booked about 14 days before because balconies came way down--I believe to $749, but you never know what can happen. Its a tough decision! Our NY 1/3/16 Breakaway cruise is on its way down as we speak:

 

This year we are doing the 14 day on the Breakaway leaving 1/3/16 which I booked in the early summer when it was still a 12 day. Before final payment it came down $400 pp. Since final payment, the balconies are now another $200 off so I called and was upgraded to a mini-suite which was still $20 less per person than I paid for the balcony at final payment but it has a bigger bathroom and they are both mid-ship. Oh well! I'm now waiting for the spa balconies to come down. If they go lower than what I am paying, I may try to book one because a spa pass is going for $300 pp for our sailing and that would be a true $600 savings.

[olya1972]

That was a true drop judging by this years's prices! I do need to book 30 days prior to sail date, though, because I need UBP for my DH. BTW, the BA 14 days cruise is what I really wanted to do and it is priced much better then Gem, but I can't take off for two weeks , Friday through Monday on Gem is very convinient. Enjoy.

Edited November 27, 2015 by olya1972

[mamagina]

That was a true drop judging by this years's prices! I do need to book 30 days prior to sail date, though, because I need UBP for my DH. BTW, the BA 14 days cruise is what I really wanted to do and it is priced much better then Gem, but I can't take off for two weeks , Friday through Monday on Gem is very convinient. Enjoy.

 

 

Yup! That's exactly why we picked the gem last year! We went to work Monday morning right from the ship!

[olya1972]

Mamagina, do you recall where the prices started from on your 11 days Jan., 2015 Gem cruise before they dropped to below $800 (were they as high as now at 1,359 per person)? Did they offer UBP and such at the time? And was it the end of January? Thank You.

[mamagina]

I'm sorry, I don't remember exactly but I don't think it was that high when I started watching. It was also when they started the dining and beverage promotions. The promotions are now back to just one choice. If you have two promotions locked in and $300 onboard credit, it might be a good deal to lock in and then try to get a better cabin later on. You just have to be satisfied with the price. If you take a lot of cruises over the long run it will work out!

[mamagina]

Yes, we took the dining package and it was specialty dining every night. Actually even lunch at the hibachi place was included. We're not big drinkers so we took the food over the booze.

[olya1972]

Mamagina, Thank You for the response. You are being very helpful. I will book it on Monday (Ciber Monday).

[mamagina]

I hope it works out for you! Fingers crossed. We were on the middle of January Gem cruise last year which did start out higher because like this year it was the one that contained both weekends so less vacation time required. Did you see that the Gem has been renovated? I really liked that ship before (much better than the Breakaway). It is really going to be beautiful now, I bet! Also NCL, as of last night is offering two promotions again. They switch it almost daily! When I logged on last night to check my price, it said "two days left"

Edited November 28, 2015 by mamagina

[olya1972]

Mamagina, thanks again for more updates. Yes, I saw the threads about renovations and I know about two promos. We loved BA, sailed it twice. I am sure we will like Gem.

[sloperate]

We are two couples sailing on the Gem Feb. 1. I've been holding off booking it to wait and see what the prices do in the coming few weeks. Day 55 falls on Dec. 6th, so it will be interesting to see if there is a fairly dramatic price shift after that.

 

Looking forward to the Gem, it will be our third visit and the first since the renovation.

[olya1972]

We are two couples sailing on the Gem Feb. 1. I've been holding off booking it to wait and see what the prices do in the coming few weeks. Day 55 falls on Dec. 6th, so it will be interesting to see if there is a fairly dramatic price shift after that.

 

Looking forward to the Gem, it will be our third visit and the first since the renovation.

On my sailing 55 days was on Sat., 11/28/15. Today is "Cyber Monday" and there was no change in price from months ago when I first checked. There may be some movement once Pick 2 promotion is over.

[JG-TX]

Sailing with 2 kids under 18? No problem. Just assign one adult to each room. NCL does not care where you actually choose to sleep once onboard (this has been verified countless times here).

 

This implies that a 18 year old child can be booked in their own room. The way I read the NCL rules, you have to have a 21 year old in the room. Can you confirm that I can book my 16 and 18 year olds in their own room? I am looking at booking NCL for the first time and have done this on RC and Carnival.

 

Thanks!

[olya1972]

This implies that a 18 year old child can be booked in their own room. The way I read the NCL rules, you have to have a 21 year old in the room. Can you confirm that I can book my 16 and 18 year olds in their own room? I am looking at booking NCL for the first time and have done this on RC and Carnival.

 

Thanks!

 

You misunderstood. You need to book an adult in each room , but once you are on the ship you can have any sleeping arrangement you need, such as 16 and 18 years old can be in a separate cabin (unofficially).

[ladybird77]

I'm eyeing to take a South American cruise in 2016. I'm debating between March and October.

 

I would likely be going solo.

 

Now, I saw yesterday that Norwegian has a Dec. 1 South American cruise that dropped to $399 for inside cabin (no single supplement, that's right $400 for a 2 week cruise). The same/similar iteneraries in 2016 are going for about $1100+ per person. I'm wondering if I should wait very close to sail date to buy a 2016 cruise if Norwegian always slashes the prices that low. Or if that would be an issue. The thing is if I did that I'd have to buy my plane ticket before I bought my cruise.

Edited December 1, 2015 by ladybird77

[insidecabin]

With long haul getting cheap flights and cruise is a very hard trick to pull off.

 

the taxes on the SA tips are relatively high.

[clementine01]

How does booking through one of the big travel agencies fall into this?

 

I know that they buy a "block" of rooms and often offer better pricing than is showing on the cruise liner's website for those rooms.

[Carla3]

I saw a thread today where a poster claimed that NCL lowered their fares when a promotion was over, while others chimed in and claimed that their cruise's fares either had not gone down or in fact had gone up.

 

I have also had debates here with people regarding the best time to book.

 

So when is the best time to book, and why do the fares jump up and down?

 

The short answer: It depends.

 

 

Computer Predictive Modeling

 

It is important to understand that there is not a human being watching the sales of your cruise and manually changing the prices. It is mostly done by computer, with the human element simply setting guidelines or coming up with promotions.

 

Initially each stateroom is assigned a "brochure price", or basically the highest rate that anyone will likely pay. It is very rare for the brochure price to be exceeded, and this only happens during super-high-demand cruises.

 

From there, the computer has a model of how the ship and itinerary have sold historically, and if not, it usually has something comparable. It also takes into account how cruises in general have been selling recently for other itineraries. These factors are then used to price each room.

 

The computer uses both historical averages and data fed by humans regarding what it expects to sell by certain dates. So if it's expected that 30% of inside cabins should have sold by 270 days out (a hypothetical I'm making up), then it will set prices according to what prices accomplished this last year, and perhaps adjust it up or down in accordance with current market conditions.

 

If the ship sells unexpectedly well, and is ahead of last year's sales, the price will automatically go up. If the sales fall behind prior years, the price will be lowered until it either catches up or it hits a pre-final-payment baseline. More on that shortly.

 

 

 

The Suite Exception

 

The above is done for the common room types -- balconies, oceanviews, and insides. Mini-suites are less plentiful, and thus their pricing is held more steady. This is why sometimes there is a huge price gap between balconies and mini suites, despite their relative similarity. Balconies will fall far below brochure price on many cruises, while mini suites will often see a much lesser reduction.

 

Full suites typically sell well, and there are not many of them. It is assumed that suites will sell out at a fairly constant price, so the sales-goal predictive pricing model is not exercised on them. Furthermore, the suites are considered luxury products, and the cruise line does not want to degrade their perceived value by highly discounting them at any point.

 

What if there are still unpurchased suites as it gets closer to sail time? Will they sail empty? No.

 

That's where the "upgrade fairy" comes in. Sales reps are assigned the task to move existing passengers into unsold suites, for an upgrade fee. If it is getting too close to cruise time, and suites remain unsold, cruisers currently in mini suites (or ones who paid a high price for their balcony room) will be called and asked if they wish to upgrade to a full suite, for what appears to be a reasonable cost. They will also attempt to upgrade lower-tier suite passengers to unsold higher-tier suites in the same fashion, knowing that it's easier to move the lower tier suites either through direct booking or upgrades.

 

This model allows the suites to always sail full, while keeping the price fairly constant.

 

In fact, if you plan to sail in a suite, booking early is the right way to go. You get your room locked in, and you are protected against possible price increases. And of course, if the price drops, you can adjust it provided that it's within the cancellation period.

 

However, if you are not in a suite, and if your itinerary is not either rare or popular, booking early is often a mistake.

 

 

 

The Pre-Final-Payment Baseline

 

For insides, oceanviews, and balconies, the computer keeps dropping the price until the proper number of cabins are sold in relation to the amount of time left before sailing.

 

So if the early bookings are slow, does that mean you will find an extreme bargain?

 

No. The reason you won't is because of the pre-final-payment baseline.

 

You are allowed to cancel for a full refund prior to final payment date (75 days out). People who notice price reductions can easily call up, cancel, and rebook at the new price. Knowing that this can and will occur, NCL will usually just adjust your price down to current levels if you notice a drop prior to the final payment date.

 

Given the customer's ability to re-rate the stateroom he purchased earlier, NCL is careful NOT to over-discount these rooms prior to final payment date. This would result in a large number of people re-pricing their rooms to super-discount fares, and it would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, NCL sets a pre-final-payment baseline rate for each category. If it's before final payment date, the rate will never drop below this baseline, no matter how poorly the cruise sells.

 

This is why you will never find spectacular bargains prior to final payment date. The only way you will get a "bargain" early is if you book, the ship sells unexpectedly well, and the price shoots up. But that's different matter entirely, and fairly uncommon for most mainstream US-departing itineraries.

 

The massive price drops occur AFTER final payment date -- when customers' hands are tied, and they can no longer re-rate their cruise fares.

 

Does this mean that you will find major bargains at the 74 day mark? No. Read on.

 

 

 

Drivin' (A Hard Bargain) at 55

 

NCL allows you to cancel your cruise from 56-75 days out and receive a full refund minus your deposit. As the deposits are typically not very large, this penalty is not very high, and therefore NCL does NOT dump rooms for very cheap during this period. Otherwise, it would be worth it for most cruisers to cancel and rebook at the bargain rates, and again this would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, even on poorly-selling cruises, NCL will wait until at least 55 days prior to sailing to start deeply discounting rooms. Why 55 days? At that point, the cancellation penalty is 50%, which makes it prohibitively expensive for customers to cancel and rebook at a cheaper rate.

 

The reductions do not always happen at the 55 day mark. That's just the first time you will possibly see a significant reduction in price. Depending upon how your cruise is selling, you may not see the massive reduction until as late as 14 days before sailing, but it's wise to start looking at the 55 day mark.

 

As a reference point, I just took an 1-way Vacouver-Anchorage cruise this summer. They dumped rooms at bargain rates 48 days before sail date. I grabbed a bargain room, and then the price slowly creeped back up after enough bargain rooms were grabbed. I got mine at the exact low point. It doesn't always work out this well (sometimes they fall even lower), but you need to use your best judgment if you're seeing the bottom price.

 

Will this dumping always occur? No. If the cruise is selling well, they have no need to dump rooms, and therefore you will never see super-bargain fares. However, as I said, most sailings DO have insides/oceanviews/balconies dumped at some point between the 14-55 day mark.

 

 

 

Determining When It Has Bottomed Out

 

It is important to check the NCL website for prices starting from the 55th day prior to sailing. However, if you do see a sharp reduction, how do you know it won't drop even more?

 

You rarely know for sure, but you can take a few steps to help determine this.

 

First off, you're looking for a HUGE sudden reduction in price. If it drops $50, don't get excited. We are talking about hundreds of dollars per person here. If you don't see that, keep waiting.

 

Sometimes the price drop will be huge but not sudden. For example, if you see four successive drops of $50 each, totaling $200, there's a good chance that you have found a great deal.

 

Second, you need to figure out the NCF (non-commissioned fare) part of each price. You can do this by simply calling NCL, asking for the current fare for the room you're interested in, and then asking, "And what portion of that is the non-comissioned fare?" They will tell you, and that amount is constant for ALL stateroom types, regardless of price. The NCF will also not change once it's established for a particular sailing, so you can ask this early on if you want.

 

So let's say they tell you that the NCF is $199 for this itinerary.

 

The price will absolutely, positively, NEVER fall below the NCF. So if you see a price for $249 for an inside stateroom, you should grab it, because it's just $50 over NCF.

 

Keep in mind that it is VERY RARE that they will sell a room for NCF only. Even the greatest bargain inside cabins tend to be at least $50 over NCF. I paid $104 over NCF for my second cabin. I did see some going for $54 over NCF, but I chose to pay an extra $50 to get a location close to my first stateroom.

 

So if you're going for an inside, you want to look for something no more than $150 over NCF, and preferably $50-$100 over NCF.

 

What about oceanviews and balconies? That's a bit harder, as they will never approach NCF. That one you'll have to just eyeball and go with your gut. If you see abrupt reductions of $250 or more on those rooms, you're pretty safe booking and knowing you got the best (or near the best) price possible.

 

Often it's best to strike while the iron is hot when you see massive, abrupt reductions. This is because the public will jump on these bargain rooms, and once those are sold, the computer will no longer be in panic mode, and the prices will creep back up.

 

What about super-super-last-minute rooms?

 

Yes, you can occasionally get bargains there, but it's not necessary to do this, and often waiting too long can backfire.

 

The NCL computer attempts to sell out almost the entire ship by 14 days prior to sail date. It keeps adjusting the prices around prior to that in order to assure this happens. Sometimes some cabins still won't sell, at which point you will still find amazing bargains. It is considered a disaster if a room sails empty, so the computer tries very hard to fill all rooms. However, the price will NEVER drop below NCF (and never below pre-assigned minimums for oceanviews and balconies), so sometimes a few rooms do sail empty.

 

However, given the focus upon filling the ship before 14 days prior to sailing, usually the best deals are already gone before then. It is best to deal shop starting at 55 days prior to sailing, and if you haven't seen a reduction by the 14 day mark, it is unlikely you will see one for that sailing.

 

 

 

The Book Extra People And Cancel Trick

 

One little-known pricing feature on NCL allows you to cancel extra people out of your stateroom for a full refund if you're 14 or more days away from sailing.

 

So if you have a family of 4, don't settle for one room and pay the expensive third and fourth person surcharge.

 

Even if you don't want to play the 14-55 day game of chicken described above, you can still book all 4 people in one room (whenever you feel comfortable doing so), and then keep price-watching starting from day 55 for a possible second room.

 

When you see inside cabins being dumped for near NCF, call NCL, cancel the extra two people out of your room, and book them their own inside cabin!

 

There will be no penalty for this (if it's 14 days or more away), and you will often get a second room for CHEAPER than adding third and fourth people to your existing room. Sailing with 2 kids under 18? No problem. Just assign one adult to each room. NCL does not care where you actually choose to sleep once onboard (this has been verified countless times here).

 

 

 

What About My Flight?

 

Many people feel uncomfortable waiting until 14-55 days out (especially if it's less than 30) to buy their airline tickets. After all, it is well known that airlines raise their prices as it gets close to the travel date.

 

As insides/oceanviews/balconies rarely sell out until VERY close to cruise time, you are really not risking anything. Go ahead and book your flights as if you're sure you're taking the cruise, even if you have not booked the cruise yet. You WILL get a room onboard of the type you desire (provided it's a balcony/oceanview/inside), it's just a matter of how much you pay.

 

The only itineraries I wouldn't try this would be the Christmas and New Year's ones, as those are popular and will sometimes sell out early.

 

 

 

What About Promotions?

 

Contrary to popular belief, promotions are somwhat independent of fares. It is not correct to say that they always raise prices before a promotion, and lower them afterwards.

 

However, promotions DO affect fares in two ways. First, price drops will often be delayed if a promotion is forthcoming. So if the computer would normally drop the price today but a good promotion is coming three days from now, the price drop will be delayed with the assumption that the promotion will bring in new orders and the percentage of staterooms sold will "catch up" to historical averages.

 

So then why do you sometimes see price drops right after promotions end? If the promotion fails to drum up enough interest to reach the expected percentage sold, the price will be lowered right when the promotion is over.

 

Second, if the cruise is selling ahead of historical averages, and if a promotion is coming up, the price might be raised because it is determined that this sailing doesn't "need" the promotion to reach the sales goals.

 

These two factors can give the illusions that promotions are just a shell game where you are actually paying for the extra perks you get, but in reality it sometimes just works out that way for the reasons stated above. There is not a set rule in the system to jack up prices just for promotions.

 

On a side note, you should always seek out the best promotion possible if booking prior to final payment date, and rebook if you see a better one (provided the fare hasn't risen). If you are booking in the 14-55 day range, you shouldn't worry too much about promotions, as the money you save on fare will typically dwarf any promotion they're running, aside from Kids Sail Free. Of course, Kids Sail Free requires that you stuff extra people in one stateroom, which in my opinion is quite unpleasant for a balcony room or smaller.

 

 

 

What's The Conclusion?

 

If you want a SUITE, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. (You likely won't see much of one, though.)

 

If you want a mini suite, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. However, if you are willing to gamble regarding the mini suites selling out (and just take a balcony if they do), I would suggest still waiting until the 55 day mark, because you will often save some money over booking early (though usually not anything dramatic).

 

If you want a baclony, oceanview, or inside, do NOT book early, unless the itinerary is rare (such as one that only sails 1-3 times per year) or during the Christmas/New Year's holidays. Instead, wait for the 55 day mark and do what I described above to get the best price.

 

 

 

Where did I get the above information? Some of it was from my own observations and studies, while some of it came from speaking to a source within NCL with whom I've recently become acquainted.

 

Feel free to ask me any questions.

 

 

Thanks for the great info

[lettienets]

Where do 'guarantee' bookings fit into all these scenarios?

[btracing03234]

Wow! You put a lot of thought and effort into this and it is appreciated. Thank you.