Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[pokerpro5]

I booked our POA 11 day cruistetour B1 balcony category last June. Just in the last 3 weeks before the 75 days cancellation period I was able to get 4 price drops, received the UDP promotion but had my OBC reduced from $200 to $75. I am now $1500 to the good! Now I see that Penthouse suites category SG have dropped the last 3 days by $600pp, still not in my price range. Doing a mock booking 10 SG cabins come up, I plan to monitor and if the price drops enough will call to see about a upgrade. The promotion now ends on the 28th which is also 55 days hope it drops enough for me to snag one of those Penthouse suites. Thanks for all your info and if you have any recommendations they will be greatly appreciated. Should I wait past the 55 days or upgrade?

 

55 day point not likely to affect suites, so just book now.

[pokerpro5]

Thanks so much! What's interesing with this cruise is that the insides were the only category to have any significant price drop. I assume this was due to them not selling because of the ubp promo combined with outside and higher cabins?

 

So, I will wait and see if rates drop off after this promo is set to end at the end of the month. In any event, at $53/pd including the taxes, booking 2 insides was the way to go.

 

We really appreciate your insight. Thanks again!

 

My observations have also shown that the price drops haven't occurred much during this promo.

 

So yes, after March 1 I bet it will change on a lot of sailings that are coming up within the next 14-55 days.

[theloo]

Can I get some more advice? Pokerpro, you answered my question on another thread, but a new development today: prices went UP, only by $50 pp, but I can't book yet as I have to wait on others in my party to decide. Otherwise, I would have booked yesterday.

 

Anyway, here's the immediate question. The final payment date is this coming Sunday. Do you think the price could go UP even further after the final payment date? It sounds like the answer should be no, but I didn't expect the price to go up today either. BTW, we are booking inside rooms.

 

I guess this is the problem of traveling with others; you can't just book exactly when you want to!

Edited February 20, 2015 by theloo

[Budget Queen]

Not a terrible deal, but unless you are in love with the UBP, I would wait. You may still get it for free if you book in the 14-55 range and they are offering it again.

 

My approach here would be to cancel, wait until 55 days out and watch for price drops, and then buy a balcony and really cheap inside. You will probably get away cheaper, and your daughter will have her own room.

 

It is not common to get the best deal on a balcony room 11 months early, but perhaps in your case it's worth it if you want the "family sails free" and UBP promotions.

 

Just keep in mind that I find a balcony room to be very uncomfortable for 3 adults (or 2 adults and 1 teen).

 

I also have to say that these NYC Jan cruises drop like a rock late booking. Not sure what dates are involved but the 1-12 Breakaway this year was $499 inside. Last year similar rates less than 30 days prior.

 

The packages may be of value however, each has to determine. :)

[Out to sea!]

Can I get some more advice? Pokerpro, you answered my question on another thread, but a new development today: prices went UP, only by $50 pp, but I can't book yet as I have to wait on others in my party to decide. Otherwise, I would have booked yesterday.

 

Anyway, here's the immediate question. The final payment date is this coming Sunday. Do you think the price could go UP even further after the final payment date? It sounds like the answer should be no, but I didn't expect the price to go up today either. BTW, we are booking inside rooms.

 

I guess this is the problem of traveling with others; you can't just book exactly when you want to!

 

It could go up, it could go down. It all depends on how well bookings are going (which no one here has access to that realtime data). No one has a Magic 8-Ball to predict the future so you just have to ask yourself "Am I happy with this price?". If the answer is yes, then book it and don't worry about what it may do. If you're not happy with the current price, don't book it.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Out to sea!

[pokerpro5]

Can I get some more advice? Pokerpro, you answered my question on another thread, but a new development today: prices went UP, only by $50 pp, but I can't book yet as I have to wait on others in my party to decide. Otherwise, I would have booked yesterday.

 

Anyway, here's the immediate question. The final payment date is this coming Sunday. Do you think the price could go UP even further after the final payment date? It sounds like the answer should be no, but I didn't expect the price to go up today either. BTW, we are booking inside rooms.

 

I guess this is the problem of traveling with others; you can't just book exactly when you want to!

 

I would advise to wait. The bump in price probably occurred because they are getting a lot of bookings due to the current promotion.

 

Once the promotion is over (March 1), the bookings should slow down big time.

 

If I were you, I would wait until the 55 day mark and start price watching.

 

Edit: I just remembered you're the one putting 7 people in two cabins. If the KSF part of the promo is important to you, then you probably want to book now.

Edited February 21, 2015 by pokerpro5

[njhorseman]

55 day point not likely to affect suites, so just book now.

 

Are you aware of the fact that suite categories have a final payment due date that is far earlier than the due date for lower category cabins? For bookings made before 1/1/15 the due date is 90 days out in most cases. For bookings made 1/1/15 and after, the final payment due date in most cases is 120 days prior to sailing. Once you know that, it may explain why the price drops could occur far earlier for suites than 55 days prior to sailing...suite inventories will rise at that 120 day mark due to cancellations at the due date. The spike in inventory at about that time, not 55 days out, is what may lead the yield management programs and processes to lowering fares.

[peg013]

I would advise to wait. The bump in price probably occurred because they are getting a lot of bookings due to the current promotion.

 

Once the promotion is over (March 1), the bookings should slow down big time.

 

If I were you, I would wait until the 55 day mark and start price watching.

 

Edit: I just remembered you're the one putting 7 people in two cabins. If the KSF part of the promo is important to you, then you probably want to book now.

 

Don't count on it. The next promo from Mar 1 to April 5 is even better than the current one. :cool:

Edited February 21, 2015 by peg013

[littlelulu01]

Don't count on it. The next promo from Mar 1 to April 5 is even better than the current one. :cool:

 

So what is the promo starting March 1?

[HowardK]

It seems there are not as many last minute solo discounts (on non-studios) compared to prior times.

[Shanlon42]

Don't count on it. The next promo from Mar 1 to April 5 is even better than the current one. :cool:

 

Please don't tease! Share! :D

[sfaaa]

It seems lately, NCL is having blow out sales earlier than the 55 day threshold. This is true on 2 cruises I was tracking. My humble advice is if the cruise price looks good, make you move before cheap rooms are all gone.

[Mirrasi]

It seems lately, NCL is having blow out sales earlier than the 55 day threshold. This is true on 2 cruises I was tracking. My humble advice is if the cruise price looks good, make you move before cheap rooms are all gone.

 

Agreed. I almost didn't book mine and was going to wait, but Im glad I didn't. Today is the 56th day mark and the rooms suddenly shot up $100pp. Im so glad I booked when I did!

[backsbanny]

Whats the next promo?

 

 

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[peg013]

Sorry. I've been offline. Add a 4th choice to the current promo - free service charges. Says for Haven suites you get all 4 plus FF Sail Free/50% Off but doesn't mention non-haven suites so hopefully the all 4 and FFSF is for Haven suites and regular suites. Don't know details of what can be combined as I haven't seen the actual T&C's.

[dna529]

Sorry. I've been offline. Add a 4th choice to the current promo - free service charges. Says for Haven suites you get all 4 plus FF Sail Free/50% Off but doesn't mention non-haven suites so hopefully the all 4 and FFSF is for Haven suites and regular suites. Don't know details of what can be combined as I haven't seen the actual T&C's.

 

Thanks for the info!

 

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[Quench]

It seems lately, NCL is having blow out sales earlier than the 55 day threshold. This is true on 2 cruises I was tracking. My humble advice is if the cruise price looks good, make you move before cheap rooms are all gone.

 

Agree. Sometimes you have to listen to that inner voice.

[Lorey2007]

55 day point not likely to affect suites, so just book now.

 

We are booked on POA in the highest B1 category at 62 days away. Getting ready to call and see about a upgrade or try to negotiate for one to a SG suite. Should I ask to speak to a specific department or should I just talk to the rep that answers the "already have a cruise booked" line.

 

Any tips you are give me would be great.

[JuneauWhatIMean]

pokerpro5- I'm so happy to see this thread come back up again! It's often in the back of my mind and I think your theories border on genius. :D

 

I've been struggling with the fact that I booked a Haven suite on the Escape before this Freestyle Choice promo started and only got $150 OBC. (It was last July). But I did get that changed to $300 for booking a Haven suite so far out, just before they apparently changed that policy. So all I'm missing is the UDP and UBP, but I sure would like to have those.;)

 

Anywhoooo.......because I booked early I've always been ahead by $2,000 +/- on the total for two. And it was nice to reread your original post re the Haven prices not necessarily dropping too much.

 

Thank you! :cool:

[michaellasdad]

Thank you for all the great information on this board, my question is regarding the 5/1 Dawn Sailing out of Boston to Bermuda, do you think that the current prices will go down at the 55 day mark? I'm talking about the lower end pricing, insides, ocean view, maybe a balcony.:)

[sfaaa]

Thank you for all the great information on this board, my question is regarding the 5/1 Dawn Sailing out of Boston to Bermuda, do you think that the current prices will go down at the 55 day mark? I'm talking about the lower end pricing, insides, ocean view, maybe a balcony.:)

 

Check # of rooms available is usually a good indication which way prices will go.

[SuiteCruiser]

Sorry. I've been offline. Add a 4th choice to the current promo - free service charges. Says for Haven suites you get all 4 plus FF Sail Free/50% Off but doesn't mention non-haven suites so hopefully the all 4 and FFSF is for Haven suites and regular suites. Don't know details of what can be combined as I haven't seen the actual T&C's.

 

Hi Peg,

 

I'm assuming you're a TA. I'm really waffling on what to do. I want a suite for a cruise 4 weeks from today, thought about booking on the 28th to see if the price dropped at all (lots of my suites left) but now with your post I wonder if I should wait that extra day and book on the 1st.

 

I really don't want to lose the promo as I'm taking all of my staff on this trip as a thank you, and to cover their drinks and all meals would be really great.

 

When do you usually get the terms & conditions sent to you?

 

Thanks so much for your help.

Edited February 22, 2015 by SuiteCruiser

[sfaaa]

Oooops, wrong thread.

Edited February 22, 2015 by sfaaa

[michaellasdad]

Check # of rooms available is usually a good indication which way prices will go.

 

Thank you for the response, it seems to me that there are quite a few of the lower priced rooms still available so I can assume that they will go down in price vs. up, good old supply and demand.:)

[zacdilone]

Here's a hypothetical question based on the situation I'm in, which is that I booked our very first cruise before reading this thread, and now wish I had waited and learned more first (rookie mistakes!).

 

Couldn't you theoretically book a room at a category lower than the one you really want and take advantage of a really great promo before the magical 55-day window, then upgrade to the room you want when prices drop significantly? If I'm understanding people right, you can do this and still hold on to the promo perks if you get the right person on the phone. Do I have that correct?

 

My wife and I booked an Oceanview room for our trip to Alaska in May, and now I'm watching to see if rates for a balcony room drop to our price range. From what I understand, I can upgrade with no penalty, right?

 

NCL sure has pricing/booking policies that are not the norm for the kind of travel I'm used to. Thanks for this VERY informational thread!