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Everything posted by njhorseman

  1. Other than the timeline repeatedly getting shifted to later and later dates as the restart of cruising continues to get pushed off, there really isn't anything new here. They've always planned for a gradual ramp up that would take several months from the first cruise until all ships are fully deployed.
  2. That's just break even on operating costs for the cruise...items like food, fuel and crew salaries. It doesn't include items such as corporate overhead, depreciation and debt service...and debt service is the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
  3. He's always said it would be up to 6 months from first cruise to full fleet deployment. Originally he stated the start might be in late third quarter to early fourth quarter, but obviously that's out the window and the earliest now is mid to late fourth quarter. All that's happened is the whole time line just got pushed off but the time it will take to progress from first ship to full fleet is about the same. Keep in mind that today is about two months until the earliest date a ship might sail, which is November 1, so the full time line is still 6 months from start to finish as it's been all along. The start and end dates have just been shifted a couple of months later than they originally were.
  4. Other than the possible restart date being repeatedly pushed back over the past couple of months, FDR has always stated that full deployment of the NCLH fleet would take several months to accomplish. The plans have always included a couple of ships at the start and then gradually ramping up from there. I don't see any change to that approach in today's announcement.
  5. We recently cancelled three cruises that were coming up to their final payment due dates over the next month. I was pleased to see that it took less than two weeks for the refunds to be posted to the credit card originally used to make the deposit payments. That's not much consolation to those of you waiting a much longer time to get your refunds of fully paid cancelled cruises, but at least those who are cancelling prior to final payment don't have to wait very long for their refunds.
  6. No...about 90% of new vaccines entering human trials failed. That means new vaccines entering phase 1, not after completing phase 2. There's a huge difference. And that number came from an expert, the former president of Merck's vaccine division . I've provided a link to the article several times, but I'll do it once more: https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it . The comparable information from the article cited by cruisemom42 is not very different from the 10% in the article I cited . Here's what it says: "We find that 13.8% of all drug development programs eventually lead to approval, which is higher than the 10.4% reported by Hay and others (2014) and the 9.6% reported by Thomas and others (2016). " You're not comparing apples to apples. I am.
  7. Based on your photo it looks like you are eating food that was prepared to your order at the grill, which is what we did also. I agree that was good...and we also rarely ate in the dining room. My comment was about the other hot food in the Terrace Cafe, which we found frequently suffered from the same problems that plague the food sitting out at any buffet, often not hot enough and sometimes dried out.
  8. That's going to be the case in every cruise line's buffet after they restart. Please...no way. Hot food in the Terrace Cafe is just like hot food in any other cruise line's buffet...rarely at proper temperature and frequently dried out from sitting at the buffet far to long.
  9. I don't recall their having a store in Brooklyn. I'm virtually 100% sure my bar mitzvah suit (my first real suit) came from Barney's, and they only had the store on 7th Ave in Manhattan at that time...1959. I remember my mother and father arguing about the cost of the suit, which they thought was far too expensive.
  10. "Sailings aboard the two vessels, which would initially be limited to residents of Schengen (European Union) countries," No...the EU countries are not identical to the Schengen countries. Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechenstein, (as well as Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City) are part of the Schengen Area, but not part of the EU. Ireland is part of the EU but not the Schengen Area.
  11. No...New Zealand puts the brakes on Trans-Tasman...., not the breaks
  12. Just as in the case of flu vaccine, efficacy of any approved vaccines is not the only problem that may prevent achievement of herd immunity. Surveys have shown a downward trend over time in the percentage of Americans who say they'll get vaccinated against COVID-19. In one recent survey only 42% said they would be vaccinated: https://news.yahoo.com/yahoo-news-you-gov-coronavirus-poll-number-of-americans-who-plan-to-get-vaccinated-falls-to-42-percent-a-new-low-162000936.html
  13. All the ships' masters didn't suddenly make the same decision on their own without consulting with and obtaining recommendations from their corporate offices.. Every major cruise line has consulting meteorologists whose job it is to predict when and where the weather will be unfavorable for cruise ships and recommend where the ships should head to avoid that weather. Royal Caribbean learned that lesson the hard way when some bad decisions were made and a couple of their ships sailed right into the teeth of powerful storms. In 2017 they hired a meteorologist to prevent that from reoccurring : https://crew-center.com/royal-caribbean-hires-first-chief-meteorologist-cruise-industry#:~:text=Casting%20a%20watchful%20eye%20on,line's%20fleet%20of%2024%20vessels https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2017/06/19/after-being-caught-off-guard-twice-last-year-royal-caribbean-hires-a-former-orlando-meteorologist. The officers, as skilled as they are, are not professional meteorologists.
  14. The Norwegian Majesty left the NCL fleet in 2009. I was on one of her last NCL cruises, from Philadelphia to Bermuda, in October 2009.
  15. That is NOT what the article says. What it says is that they're going to give the vaccine to health care workers while the phase 3 trials are being conducted: "The country will reportedly complete phase 2 of its clinical trials by Aug. 3. The third phase will take place at the same time health care workers begin receiving the vaccination."
  16. You undoubtedly know this, but others may not...American Cruise Lines and Chesapeake Shipbuilding are sister companies. Note this comment by American Cruise Lines' CEO Charles A. Robertson in a 2018 interview. ( Charles A Robertson passed away earlier this year and was immediately succeeded by his son Charles B. Robertson) https://www.travelagentcentral.com/cruises/charles-robertson#:~:text=At the helm of the,industry since the mid-1970s. "When the line builds new vessels, it does so at Chesapeake Shipbuilding, its own shipyard in Salisbury, MD. Building your own ships does have its perks, according to Robertson: “It certainly streamlines the process and there’s never an argument with the shipbuilder.” " Chesapeake Shipbuilding also builds vessels, mostly tugs, for other companies.
  17. No...it was the PVSA, not the Jones act. The Jones Act governs the transportation of merchandise (cargo).The PVSA governs the transportation of passengers. If the NYT said it was the Jones Act they were wrong. in fact the Jones Act wasn't a century-old law at the time the article was likely written either. It was enacted in 1920. The PVSA would have been over a century old at the time, having been enacted in 1886.
  18. One of my classmates had come down with polio as a young child and had to use crutches thereafter. I think his case was what motivated all the parents in the school to permit their children to be part of the vaccine trial.
  19. In 1954 I was one of the 1.3 million US school children who became known as "Polio Pioneers"...the participants in the testing of the Salk polio vaccine. Obviously it wasn't my choice to participate...my parents made that decision, but having survived that early in my life I don't think I would roll the dice near the opposite end of my life to test another vaccine. But...my thanks to those of you brave enough to volunteer .
  20. A little math lesson is needed here. 1200 passengers do not comprise 60% capacity of a 2900 passenger ship...they are sailing at only a bit over 40% capacity. Further, as seems to be a regular problem with Cruise Critic articles lately there's a misstatement about the US's PVSA requirements: " (Such "cruises to nowhere" aren't allowed in the United States, where foreign-flagged cruise ships that leave American homeports are required to stop at an international port)" In fact the PVSA specifically permits cruises to nowhere by foreign-flagged ships. Please see the top of page 16 "Voyages to Nowhere" of https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2019-Sep/PVSA-ICP.pdf , which is a continuation of the PVSA exceptions that start on page 15. The "cruise to nowhere" issue involves a DHS ruling made a couple of years ago about the types of visas needed by the crew. If that visa issue were resolved cruises to nowhere could resume .
  21. Every publicly traded company tries to pump up their stock price every day. It doesn't matter how successful or profitable the company already is. Just look at Pfizer's press releases https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/default.aspx . If any corporate board found that the company wasn't putting out every iota of favorable sounding news the CEO and other officers would be handed their walking papers in the blink of an eye. Do you not realize that senior corporate officers typically derive most of their earnings from performance-based bonuses and their stock options, not from salary ? To do anything but pump up their company's stock would be moronic and contrary to their own financial interests.
  22. They were still doing research for over a decade after SARS disappeared, so it was not just a matter of an insufficient number of subjects to test. Government and industry were unwilling to put any more money into something for which there was no perceived need. Read this article. The cessation of SARS vaccine research was a matter of money. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
  23. The fact is that as of now four years has been the minimum. I have no problem with Fauci giving as optimistic a spin as he can on the situation because of his position in the public eye, but if you asked him directly, unless he's ignorant or a liar, and I think he's neither, he would have to say that to date no vaccine has been developed in under four years. That's a fact and good scientists like Dr. Fauci won't dispute facts.
  24. Note that this press release appears on the "investors" web page of one of the companies developing this vaccine. Why is it there? For scientific review? No... Didn't AstraZeneca also "intend" to include seniors in its vaccine trial? Hey...I hope a vaccine or two is successfully introduced soon, but I'm wary of the barrage of press releases whose main purpose is to pump up the company's stock price.
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