Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

[theloo]

This would likely mean the cheapest inside cabins are selling but not the more expensive family insides. I would go for the cheaper guarantee and hope it gets upgraded to a higher floor/category when the room is finally assigned.

 

Thanks for the response. As the price went up for the 2nd time in a week, I may just have to sit this one out. Or wait for a last-minute price drop. Or maybe try for a different cruise.

[peg013]

We usually look for big sales & last minute deals/offers, with some exceptions and had been watching ours for a while and put a hold on it @ T-49 days, with last month's big promo & sales transition into Feb. on the Breakaway - ours sailing just before the Easter break & usually, get some great deals.

Luckily, it paid off instead of waiting closer to the 30 to 40 days mark for further price drops - the popular Oceanview GTY prices went up by about $400 for 2. We kept our $200 OBC for the OV-GTY, applied our Cruise Reward & made final payment.

I just checked again this evening, OV is nearly soldout and prices even higher now, same price as Balcony (BD as BX is soldout ?? as the lowest price tier within) With 23 days to go, the ship is nowhere near selling out or full to capacity, counted about 90 balcony staterooms listed by cabin # in practically all categories, including plenty of large balconies on deck 10 (AFT Bal. are gone) and last minute prices are even higher than 5 to 10 days ago. *

I don't know what NCL is thinking - not dropping prices to attract last minute folks looking for bargains & CAN take a week off (from work, with approval last minute - not all employers do THAT unless you are your own boss) and just pack-n-go. Easter sailing that is following our return to NYC isn't sold out either, and priced even higher. Lowest balcony/oceanview for 2 is $2,1000 in total for 7 nights, select your option for the "Perks" like UDP or UBP as value-added choices - still not exactly a bargain.

We are fine with sailing on a less than full Breakaway, less crowd & shorter lines and easier to do walk-in dining without reservations, etc.

*

By "giving" away UBP, UDP and KSF, etc. to attract earlier booking, but how's NCL going to fill those remaining 90+ cabins in 2 to 3 weeks ??? Offer deals to TA and Friends & Families deal last minute - those ain't exactly good for corporate bottom lines.

*

The other move by NCL actualy really surprised us and at least 2 or 3 other on the same sailings, our OV booking got free upgrades to the lower/est Balcony category, locations is okay - so "no complaints" from us as happy campers with a nice view, still scratching my head every time I think about it, what on earth ??? What kind of logic is that - maybe NCL's computer system is randomly giving us Plantinum cruisers something extra :D

 

So, what if they don't drop prices on/after March 1st. with these fast approaching sailings - dozens of cabins remaining empty as the ship sail ... Stay tuned for an interesting watch in a few days. :confused:

 

Are you taking into consideration the NCL might be sitting on 50-60 or even more GTY's is just waiting to see how much they can get for those remaining higher priced cabins before making any assignments? :confused:

[mking8288]

Are you taking into consideration the NCL might be sitting on 50-60 or even more GTY's is just waiting to see how much they can get for those remaining higher priced cabins before making any assignments? :confused:

Well, true & THAT is always a possibility, cannot rule it out - we did 3 GTY in 2014 on BA (late March too) and waited, waited & finally assigned within days apart at T minus 20 to 25 days or so. Prices were dropping & actually dipped lower than what we paid.

This time, we got our GTY assigned at T - 35 days, sooner than expected from Oceanview to Balcony (never expected one & highly usual, right !! ) but we aren't the only ones (at least 1 other cabin in our RollCall with the same - everyone rollcalling on CC with GTY already assigned)

I'm probably missing some logics here but prices are heading higher & higher with all those cabins listed (unless it's a "systems" error) - been watching the sailing's prices since early/mid-December for the early Spring sailings. If we waited last minute "longer" till now to book OV or Balcony today, the lowest prices to be paid is about $500 more for the 2 of us - puzzled & not the "old" NCL way.

If the prices are right (bargain) - I'm sure that there are lots of snowbirds tired of old man Winter & will pack up & sail on short notice (and, throw in a Resident Rate deal ...) Except that most corporate employer/HR dept won't necessary be kind to approve a last minute request for a week off on short notice for non-emergencies. Mrs. M has to submitted hers by Jan. 15 or be left with lousy choices on when to take vacation days - self employed, business owners & retirees being "exempt", of course.

The Upgrade Fairy seemed to be on an extended vacation lately as not much posting, if any, from the headlines posted herein.

Edited February 26, 2015 by mking8288

[sfaaa]

Thanks for the response. As the price went up for the 2nd time in a week, I may just have to sit this one out. Or wait for a last-minute price drop. Or maybe try for a different cruise.

 

Very wise approach. Prudent and value conscious consumers would say no cruise is a Must Have. If the deal doesn't look right, drop it and move on to the next one.

[michaellasdad]

Very wise approach. Prudent and value conscious consumers would say no cruise is a Must Have. If the deal doesn't look right, drop it and move on to the next one.

 

That's my thoughts as well, we are very flexible, my fiance is out of work for 3 months and my job allows me a lot of flexibility so I can go at a weeks notice. I see the prices are creeping up for the 5/1 Dawn sailing but we are still outside of that majic 55 day window, so I can wait, if we don't get that cruise another one will be just as fine. Did I mention that I'm Frugal (cheap) LOL

[Quench]

I'm gad I booked my cabin the prices have increase $60 for two.

[michaellasdad]

I'm gad I booked my cabin the prices have increase $60 for two.

 

When is your cruise?

[Quench]

When is your cruise?

 

 

May sailing to Alaska:D

[apmecruise]

Wow, lots to think about. Thanks

[pokerpro5]

Here is a little warning to everyone.

 

I posted this last year, when the techniques I described were highly likely to work for insides, oceanviews, and balconies. They had been working this way for years, so I felt safe to post these tips advising you guys for future bookings.

 

Unfortunately, NCL threw a wrench into everything by offering these high-value promotions.

 

They seem to be taking a different approach to their business model.

 

Namely, they are willing to sell fewer UDP/UBP packages (giving them away "free" to most passengers), and are also throwing away the lucrative model of high fares for 3rd/4th passengers.

 

At the same time, I am seeing fewer 14-55 day deals than I had in 2014 -- MUCH fewer.

 

I think they are selling better because of these great promotions, and now have far fewer empty cabins than they used to. This is just a theory, but I have noticed that the 14-55 day deals are nowhere near as reliable as they were prior to these big promos.

 

While this promo ends February 28, I hear another high value promo is starting on March 1, so this may persist.

 

Now, don't panic.

 

Your prices are not likely to go UP on most sailings. From my research, the current cruises 14-55 days away are selling insides/oceanviews/balconies a little cheaper than prior to final payment date, but only a little bit cheaper.

 

What I'm not seeing is the situation where $649/pp inside cabins are going for $299/pp in the 14-55 day range.

 

I found a few bargains. For example, the April 24 sailing on the Gem from New York now charges $499/$779/$979/$1029 for inside/oceanview/balcony/minisuite, while most other sailings are $799/$879/$1179/$1329 type fares.

 

But that's the exception, and not the rule. Also, April 24 is 56 days from now, not 55!

 

I will be watching and updating as things unfold.

 

This makes me sad, because it looks like NCL is getting away from the model where a second room is cheaper/equivalent to placing a 3rd and 4th in your existing room, and they are also getting away from dumping at bargain prices.

 

I hope this isn't partially my fault. I wasn't sure if I should post this thread because I know NCL reads CC, and they might have been unhappy that I let these "pricing secrets" out to the public. I mean, these were more observations/strategies than secrets, but they were very effective and laid out plainly/clearly, and I'm afraid that might have influenced them to do away with it. If that's the case, I apologize.

[insidecabin]

Many of the cruises I have looked at the 3+ where not free are still high.

 

eg. getaway 18July

 

inside ID

 

UK 1-2 £689 3+ £554 taxes inc balcony 3+ £594

US 1-2 $999 3+ $790 + $119pp taxes

(cheapest is $989)

 

Looking at one with cheap insides

 

Epic 19April TA

lowest inside $399 taxes $66

 

family inside I1 for 4 1-2 $469 3+ $420

1/2 price 3+ on this cruise, really?

 

Uk cheapest £319 I1 £349 3+£299 balcony 3+ are £339

[sfaaa]

Perhaps fewer discount deals is a sign of time in 2015. Financial crisis is over and consumers feel more comfortable to cruise and spend again.

[insidecabin]

I had been looking at the Spirit Jade cruises for quite some time and when the Choice came in(mid Dec US, Jan UK) this is what happened

 

The prices for the next few cruises, through Jan did not move up or came down a bit, the added promotions(2 choices) made these cruises a steal they were already good prices(Jan is a dead zone for prices in EU)

 

The following cruises Feb into March and beyond did not get their normal price drops I think people have been booking the deals as with the promo they are still great value.

 

10day cruises with UBP and UDP for $500-$700 is bargain cruising even dates coming up are still $100pppd or less with UBP and UDP where there is availability and balcony for that on some dates.

 

For now dates further out into the summer are still holding at the higher prices set before the choice started but many of those don't have GTY rates yet

[insidecabin]

Another thing NCL can do is set OV up pricing at a level they are happy with including the choices.

 

they can play with the no frills price on insides and just upgrade people to fill an OV cabin without the benifits if they want to fill the ship.

 

What RCI/X do is not have the benifits on GTY rates so have two tier pricing like P&O and Cunard in the UK.

[Ship2shoreCO]

We got a steal on our 10 day eastern med cruise by booking 43 days out. We paid $619 per adult and $449 per child for a BX for four. We got the kids sail half price and UBP promos included. Had we waited a few days, we could have gotten the UDP too for about the same price. We wound up with an upgrade to a B2 though, so I'm not complaining at all. I'm just not sure how NCL can make any money at those prices. I checked the following week and they were wanting $800+ per person for ocean view GTYs. Definitely glad I booked when I did.

[luv2gonow]

Wow thanks for all the great info. Really appreciated.

 

I have 4 jammed on a Disney cruise:eek:. I wonder what their policy is

Kerri

Edited February 28, 2015 by luv2gonow

[titangas]

Wow thanks for all the great info. Really appreciated.

 

I have 4 jammed on a Disney cruise:eek:. I wonder what their policy is

Kerri

 

If you are wondering about price drops, they rarely happen on DCL.

Probably holds more true to them than any mainstream North American line, booking early pays off.

 

As far as "Jammed" - I have had 5 in a family balcony stateroom (3 kids) and had more space than any other line.

 

The split bath is key.

[HowardK]

I will be watching and updating as things unfold.

 

and they are also getting away from dumping at bargain prices.

 

I hope this isn't partially my fault. I wasn't sure if I should post this thread because I know NCL reads CC, and they might have been unhappy that I let these "pricing secrets" out to the public. I mean, these were more observations/strategies than secrets, but they were very effective and laid out plainly/clearly, and I'm afraid that might have influenced them to do away with it. If that's the case, I apologize.

 

 

I think its more the new CEO. I noticed a change almost immediately after KS left. They might be willing to have the rooms remain unsold given that the extra charges on prior rooms could cover their losses.

 

Kind of like how ticket brokers used to operate where they refused to give last minute sales even at last minute.

 

Here's kind of an analogy: A friend of mine was outside either a Phillies game or concert and offerred the person with an extra ticket a few bucks- not much but perhaps something to get his kid a hot dog or drink. Instead the guy laughs in his face and eats the ticket pretty much.

 

Could be the same thing. A refusal to offer a last minute deal- in an effort to end all deals perhaps and eventually the consumer succumbs at some point to the higher price because they a) move past the discounts and b) accept the fact that they have to pay more.

[Dave85]

I think its more the new CEO. I noticed a change almost immediately after KS left. They might be willing to have the rooms remain unsold given that the extra charges on prior rooms could cover their losses.

 

Kind of like how ticket brokers used to operate where they refused to give last minute sales even at last minute.

 

Here's kind of an analogy: A friend of mine was outside either a Phillies game or concert and offerred the person with an extra ticket a few bucks- not much but perhaps something to get his kid a hot dog or drink. Instead the guy laughs in his face and eats the ticket pretty much.

 

Could be the same thing. A refusal to offer a last minute deal- in an effort to end all deals perhaps and eventually the consumer succumbs at some point to the higher price because they a) move past the discounts and b) accept the fact that they have to pay more.

 

 

Other lines are on record recently about their willingness to "eat" more empty cabins to keep prices higher -- Most notably Carnival and RCI. Of course, it remains to be seen whether that'll work out for them financially.

 

NCL seems to be trying to fill more cabins earlier with value added promotions -- ie, Freestyle Choice -- to prevent so much discounting later. This seems to have directly coincided with the appointment of the new CEO.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Cruise Critic Forums mobile app

Edited March 1, 2015 by Dave85

[sfaaa]

No business wants to get into a price war because it is a risky gamble and the result unpredictable. If your competitors match your discount rate, you are now back to square one and every operator is worse off because of it. I suspect no more deep discount strategy is where the cruise industry is heading.

Edited March 1, 2015 by sfaaa

[littlelulu01]

Granted I don't have my finger on the pulse of cruise pricing like pokerpro but I fear that restructuring of cruise pricing is more a sign of the times with travel costs in general.

 

I consider myself your typical traveler. It's always been a passion but I've never been able to throw cost to the wind. Pre 2008 many Americans had a quest living large, way too large. Post 2008 it became quite vouge to be the bargain shopper. I just don't see those bargains like I used to. I think the travel industry really wants us all to forget about those times and adjust to the costs they wish to charge.

 

The problem is that people like myself have lived an entire adult life on those bargains for luxury expenses such as travel and so are not willing to give up the deal.

 

My family started traveling frequently circa around the time google became a great search engine and I could find the deals (around 1999). Not long after there were tragedies that caused fear of travel which gave us crazy good travel bargains. Post 911, pig flu, drug wars in Mexico... The traveler not afraid got the bargains. Then 2008 hit and that's when we got the really killer deals. Mileage awards that were crazy good in first class, luxury hotel package deals, NCL Haven rooms going at the last min for what I'm now paying for OV.

 

Those new to the table as adult travelers will be more accepting of higher prices. I however can't see myself accepting new pricing structures. With two kids in college, one studying abroad, our families travel costs are more conservative. We will still travel but will do what is the best bang for our buck. I usually book in waves for what is the best deal. Sometimes it's Disney, sometimes Maui, Europe, sometimes cruises.

 

I actually think the cruise industry is playing with pricing and testing waters on what the industry will bear. The huge perks recently offered may not stick around. I think it was a smart move to offer them to boost sales but since things such as alcohol sales make up such a huge portion of profits I don't necessarily see offering as a perk for an OV will work unless the OV price never gets dumped. If that's the case they may lose quite a few customers. I will never be the person booking the garden villa with no care on the cost. Nor do I see myself sailing A five star luxury line. I'm the traveler booking my staple trips far in advance and price shopping as long as possible. Then filling in with last minute bargains. If last min bargains go away in the cruise world ill just find them somewhere else. It may be a ski trip in Canada, a jungle trek in Central America ... I sure hope its a bargain cruise but if not there's always Google to help me find the next travel passion.

[William W]

I'm not sure if this is the right strategy/gamble. I have booked myself, DW, and both of my DS under the 3rd to 8th passenger free promo on the Gem, thinking that quad inside will sell out soon on this particular May sailing.

 

My parents are coming on this trip as well. In fact, that's the purpose that we are taking this trip, so we can have a vacation that encompass all three generations. However, I haven't booked their cabin yet, hoping that the price of their inside cabin will go down once the current sale is over.

 

I understand the danger is the inside cabins will sell out before they book or the price will further increase. But given that the freestyle choice doesn't applies to people booking inside cabins, and the rate for the 1st two passenger are somewhat inflated now due to the kids sail free promo, I'm betting that NCL will decrease the inside rate later on once they pull the kids sail free promo and the cruise is 30 days from sailing.

 

Am I playing with fire here, or is this a calculated gamble that would most likely pay off?

[mking8288]

Just did an "Upsell Fairy" CC search within NCL Forum here - and, it seemed that the Upsell department has been on virtual vacation since this January and/or reassign to other sales function, etc.

Sailing in 13 days and folks in our Roll Call watching & tracking prices (also using that "fish" site) with the countdown for last minute deals - nothing, prices going up (& higher) and last 2 sailings didn't go out FULL, unsold & empty cabins remaining until embarkation time. Still hoping for chance to upgrade - one cabin getting a nice "offer" to move up to Haven for about $1,000 MORE per person (that's for a 7 night cruise, NYC-FL-Bahamas on BA) - so "no thanks".

For that kind of add-on upgrade pricing, we can do ANOTHER 7 nights somewhere by planning ahead and/or doing a last minute thing. I wish NCL luck & success in selling the remaining unsold 40-50 plus cabins (family balconies, mini-suites & Haven's) with their new strategy for the industry - and more mega-ships coming from the yards.

With the airline pricing & fares, they can quickly & "easily" downsize & substituted smaller aircrafts and re-route their equipments, and most flyers won't bark a beep. Not so easy with those 120,000 tons floating & doing milky runs around Florida & the Carib's, I think - unless the mass market feel the prices are good.

Lower gasoline prices meant that this summer, many more families might be hitting the nation's highway behind wheels - the average "bread-n-butter" households, family of 3 or 4 ready to commit early on to spend 7 nights in Bermuda for roughly $8,000 to $10,000 USD (or more) for a typical oceanview cabin ... not so sure about it. Even if the lower-tier cabins are gone for 2016 now, what about those suites & Haven's - NCL isn't the only game in town these days, so ... wait & see.

[fstuff1]

yup, lets see what happens under the new ceo's strategy.

 

and we will know by the stock price.

jan-mar will be the 1st full quarter for this strategy.

lets see how the market reacts when they release those revenue #s in june(?)

Edited March 10, 2015 by fstuff1

[ladybird77]

Well I booked my cruise around the 65-67 day mark. Didn't see this thread. My cruise leaves in early may. It was an inside cabin. I had been tracking a NCL Jade and a NCL epic cruise cabin with single supplement since December. The base PP/Double Occupancy price of the Jade cruise never changed that much (about $50 up and down), but the single supplement at some point dropped from about 75%-80% to 50%. I was scared the supplement price may increase in the 60 day mark so I booked it.

 

I'll watch the pricing on this cruise and supplement to see how it is closer to the 30 day mark.

 

Having tracked a few cruises for a couple of months, I don't really see NCL prices dropping too drastically in the last four weeks. I followed the pricing for mostly european cruises.

Edited March 10, 2015 by ladybird77