Disturbance in the Gulf

[spleenstomper]

Keep the carnival excursions. They will cancel them if they have to. Same with the non carnival excursions.

 

We are doing Jamaica first, then grand cayman and then Cozumel on June 1.

 

 

80% thunderstorms means 80% of th viewing audience will see a thunderstorm. It doesn’t mean rain all day (though it could rain all day).

[winddawn]

I heard my local weather guy say this morning there is potential for 2 tropical systems in the extended forecast.

[spleenstomper]

Yes, that is the theoretical Beryl I mentioned.

[spleenstomper]

 

Current view

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

Recon plane going out tomorrow afternoon

[spleenstomper]

THURSDAY MAY 24 1:00 pm

AREA OF INTEREST #1...The surface trough in the western Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized while spinning up into a surface low over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula as observed in high-resolution GOES-16 satellite animation. Although this system is currently struggling with westerly shear on the south side of an upper trough in the Gulf of Mexico...the upper trough is amplifying as warm upper ridging over the north-central US amplifies due to warm southerly flow on the east side of a western US frontal cyclone. The amplification of the upper trough is changing the upper-level flow over this system from westerly to southerly which is reducing the unfavorable westerly shear and also supporting the thundersorm activity of the disturbance as the upper-level flow on the east side of the amplifying upper trough is also more divergent. Given that this system has become organized faster than I expected...and is located slightly southwest of where I expected...I have increased my intensity forecast and shifted my forecast track accordingly. The forecast keeps this system stalled over the next 12 hours as a blocking surface ridge over the Great Lakes remains in place...supported by western convergence of the upper trough associated with a frontal cyclone that has recently moved out of the northeast US and into the NW Atlantic. After that time...I show a northward track of this system across the eastern Gulf of Mexico after the blocking ridge moves out of the way such that this system gets steered north by the west side of the Atlantic surface ridge and east side of the amplifying upper trough in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest GFS model shows the upper trough in the Gulf amplifying into an upper vortex that swings eastward over this system...with amplification further aided by the latent heat release of this system's thunderstorms which could help build upper ridging over and to the east of this system. I currently forecast that this system will strengthen in split flow upper divergence between the forecast upper vortex and warm upper ridging expected to develop over and east of this system...but as a fully tropical storm (instead of a subtroipcal storm) as I currently expect the outflow provided by the warm upper ridging to also be a major aid in the strengthening of this system. The lastest presentation of this warm upper ridging in the latest GFS model run encourages me to show this system strengthening into a minimal category 1 hurricane by 72 hours. Given the increased risk for tropical cyclone development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...interests on the west Florida coast and Florida panhandle coast...Alabama...Mississippi...and Louisiana Gulf coast should begin to consider storm surge and rip current impacts this system could have during the busy Memorial Day weekend coming up. Interests along the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama may have to deal with some wind damage from this system as well this weekend. It has already rained alot over the last few days over western Cuba....Florida and the southeastern United States. These areas should watch for flash flooding as this system moves slowly moves through in the coming days...particularly over Florida and the southeast US as this system could slowly move after making landfall if the Gulf upper vortex tries to drag this system back southward. The flooding risk to the Cayman Islands has decreased as this system has become more consolidated off to the west...and significant weather over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula should be minimal as westerly shear from the upper trough in the Gulf of Mexico will keep the strongest weather pushed off to the east.

0 Hr Position (1200Z May 24)...Surface low over the eastern Yucatan peninsula centered at 19N-88.5W

24 Hr Forecast (1200Z May 25)...35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula at 21N-88W

48 Hr Forecast (1200Z May 26)...60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico centered at 24N-87W

72 Hr Forecast (1200Z May 27)...75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 27N-87W

96 Hr Forecast (1200Z May 28)...40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the Alabama/Florida border at 31N-87W

120 Hr Forecast (1200Z May 29)...Remnant low centered over Alabama at 32.5N-87W

[spleenstomper]

00

ABNT20 KNHC 241726

TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern

Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although

showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain

primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean

Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive

for development through early next week, and a subtropical or

tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday

afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across

western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast

into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will

steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to

Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on

these threats, please see products issued by your local weather

office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system

will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

[indygirl76]

Should we cancel our excursions they are not booked thru carnival we have them to a all inclusive in Freeport 80% thunderstorms and Atlantis in Nassau 80% thunderstorms, will the water park even be open?

It really depends on the company/ies you booked them through. Most of the major, well-established players will automatically cancel and refund, in the case of obvious weather problems or even just an itinerary change. However, if you booked through a smaller independent company, I would read the docs carefully and cancel if they don't automatically refund. Ymmv....

[spleenstomper]

Latest euro model run (MODEL, not reality) is showing a hurricane with landfall around mobile. Just one possibility that may or may not become real.

[ItsADryHumor]

This mama is so old, she ran from Katrina on the Ecstasy.

 

We actually did. :)

[spleenstomper]

This mama is so old, she ran from Katrina on the Ecstasy.

 

We actually did. :)

I was running an illegal hotel and dog kennel with all of the relatives I had here.

 

Marine update:

 

000

AGXX40 KNHC 241851

MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

251 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,

and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W

and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to

develop and potentially become a tropical cyclone as it moves

slowly northward through Monday. System may evolve by Friday

morning into a Central American Gyre structure with a large area

of cyclonic winds of fresh breeze to near gale, but lacking a

strong inner core characteristic of a tropical cyclone. However,

global model guidance is fairly aggressive in spinning the

system up to a tropical cyclone before its center reaches the

U.S. Gulf coast in three to four days. Strong winds and building

seas are likely primarily east of the tropical low center in the

NE Gulf. Winds are kept at a peak of 30 kt and seas of 12 ft in

the forecast for now. However, an option that may be pursued

tonight or tomorrow is to issue oceanic gale warnings before

tropical cyclone (or potential tropical cyclone) advisories are

issued.

 

 

(A gyre is a monsoon type event, a rain event)

[spleenstomper]

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

 

Is dream supposed to be in Cuba or are they hiding out?

 

 

I didn’t think any cruises went to Cuba from New Orleans (or I would have booked one)

 

 

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[gerelmx]

Now 90% to become Hurricane in the following 5 days

[spleenstomper]

Now 90% to become Hurricane in the following 5 days

 

 

Yes and I kinda think my cruise will get truncated or something. I can’t see how we are going to get out of the Mississippi on Sunday.

[mnp75]

I'm leaving on the Vista this Sunday! I've got excursions at all 3 ports. Storms are starting up early this year.

[spleenstomper]

They are early,

 

I’m an idiot, lol. I thought they were in Cuba but when I put my glasses on, I see Roatan looks like a small Cuba. Lol

[Fla Senior]

Now 90% to become Hurricane in the following 5 days

 

If you're going to post on here, then try to be accurate. NHC is giving the system a 90% chance of forming into a tropical system. That would be a depression or tropical storm. NHC has mentioned nothing about a hurricane.

[spleenstomper]

Levi Cowen’s Tropical Tidbits update

 

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

It is now subtropical storm Alberto.

[spleenstomper]

A sub tropical storm can have winds that extend out farther than a tropical storm and it can convert to a tropical storm.

 

We will just have to wait for the recon flight this afternoon to see what is going on and what the dropsonde data tells us.

[spleenstomper]

I’m last minute scramble packing and then headed to New Orleans, so if I disappear for a little while, follow Levi at tropical tidbits and someone else can update as needed!

 

Thanks.

 

I think we are going to be maybe not getting out of the river on a Sunday afternoon.

[NBBaker]

You're cruising during storm season. There are storms.

[spleenstomper]

Technically, the season doesn’t start until June 1.

 

I’m happy to get on the ship and let the captain figure it out.

[NBBaker]

spleenstomper, you're speaking of hurricane season. I'm speaking of storm season, which is broader than the NOAA hurricane season.