Disturbance in the Gulf

[spleenstomper]

It appears that Alberto is now transitioning from cold core to warm core, from subtropical to tropical storm.

[jmspls72]

Ok, this thing is moving ENE. I’m starting to think Tallahassee to Tampa might get the center (but since this is mostly a rain event, it might not really matter who gets the center because everyone is going to get rain)

 

It is predict to turn back toward mobile before making landfall

 

I hope it keeps heading east

[jmspls72]

If they cancel the cruise, you will get a refund. If the ship is on track to sail, they expect you to be there.

 

How is the weather where you are now? You might luck out if this stalls a bit and goes farther east.

 

I’m an hour from mobile right in the center of its path. I figuared I was not going to get a refund.

[spleenstomper]

We will know more tomorrow. I hope it works out for you.

 

I board Dream about 1:30 to 2:00.

[spleenstomper]

000

WTNT41 KNHC 270256

TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018

1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just

north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the

center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.

Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from

an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best

ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum

flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35

kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the

convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than

the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they

were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt

which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the

strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen

since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial

intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm

due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just

west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to

become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or

just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution

should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become

more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto

transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.

There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane

before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt

peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After

landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken

over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,

although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains

possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move

north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This

should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern

United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the

westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the

new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the

previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make

landfall near the 48 h point.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected

to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,

southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding

potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast

region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning

Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central

and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well

east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge

watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their

local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within of the tropical storm

warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the

warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread

northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$

Forecaster Beven

Goodnight!!

[ocut]

Headed to Miami now. I will be there about 4pm. Wish us luck

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

Good luck! I’ll be on Dream around 2. I just woke up so am about to have coffee and check the weather.

[spleenstomper]

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

000

WTNT41 KNHC 271438

TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018

1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved

markedly over the past 12 hours or so. Deep convection has

increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around

the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the

circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated

that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb. The aircraft has also

reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds

of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the

northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection

is located. Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that

area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller

radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its

transition to a tropical cyclone. The reconnaissance aircraft data

also indicate that a shallow warm core is present. It is likely

that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today

or tonight. As this transition occurs, some additional

strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm

sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes. However, dry mid-

level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation

could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the

coast.

The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due

to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to

24 hours. The cyclone should move generally northward today, then

turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over

the central Gulf of Mexico. The timing and location of landfall of

the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs.

The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it

makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner

and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS. The NHC forecast is

near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous

advisory. Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing

and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread

northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of

flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and

south Florida today. The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will

then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern

Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the

track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area

are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local

government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm

warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the

warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to

affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through

Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 27.1N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

36H 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

48H 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

72H 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

96H 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

Forecaster Brown

[spleenstomper]

 

Nothing going on in New Orleans!

[ItsADryHumor]

How goes it, spleenstomper? It's pretty calm over here in the Panhandle. People bought all the breadmilk for a little rain.

[spleenstomper]

How goes it, spleenstomper? It's pretty calm over here in the Panhandle. People bought all the breadmilk for a little rain.

 

 

 

We are fine! I think we are going faster than I remember but I can’t be sure.

 

 

 

 

 

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[spleenstomper]

 

 

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[banzaii]

:-( I thought this was going to be a "Star Wars" thread.:-(

 

 

 

Mmmm thought the same I did!

 

 

Cheers

[ItsADryHumor]

 

 

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Stay safe, and have fun! Looks like Alberto took a lil' turn towards us, so hopefully that will mean sooner to sunshine for you and the rest of the Dream! :)

[spleenstomper]

Thanks!!

 

We are between Buras, Louisiana and Venice on the river

 

 

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