kangforpres Posted July 5, 2018 #1 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Hi- Although this is not a HAL specific topic I've seen several stories lately in the business/financial press indicating CCCL stock and it's competitors have been sliding and demand for the Fall/Winter is expected to be soft. So I'm wondering if we can expect big discounts moving forward and further cutbacks with on board service? In general the economy is pretty strong right now and I think the travel industry is doing very well, especially airline profits. Maybe the cruise market has finally made it to a saturation point and the demand is at it's max? How many 6000 pax ships can the industry support? https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/carnival-stock-sinks-as-morgan-stanley-sees-year-end-slowdown-for-cruise-sector-14610878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveOKC Posted July 5, 2018 #2 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Hi- Although this is not a HAL specific topic I've seen several stories lately in the business/financial press indicating CCCL stock and it's competitors have been sliding and demand for the Fall/Winter is expected to be soft. So I'm wondering if we can expect big discounts moving forward and further cutbacks with on board service? In general the economy is pretty strong right now and I think the travel industry is doing very well, especially airline profits. Maybe the cruise market has finally made it to a saturation point and the demand is at it's max? How many 6000 pax ships can the industry support? https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/carnival-stock-sinks-as-morgan-stanley-sees-year-end-slowdown-for-cruise-sector-14610878 Obviously, no one can predict the future of any stock. My thoughts (for what they are worth) at $57 the stock pays a $2.00 dividend, which is 3.5% - not bad and has been increasing (it has doubled since 2014)! This helps to limit the downside in stock price IMO. As to the industry, I like the demographics of it - the retired community is increasing daily and is already at record levels, many of these retirees will turn to cruising for their vacations, plus they now have the time to do longer cruises. In addition, these retirees have more disposable income than past retirees. A current negative issue is the price of oil, which has recently jumped. Living in the oil patch, we certainly like this, but the local feeling is that oil prices will not stay high long term, as there are too many factors that could push it downward (increased fracking, new technologies, electric cars, OPEC issues, etc.). So, I do not see oil being a longer term negative. In disclosure, I recently purchased a fair amount of CCL stock, after watching it more than double since my last purchase in 2012. For what its worth.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wishing on a star Posted July 5, 2018 #3 Share Posted July 5, 2018 I have heard nothing but positive about the 'growing cruise industry'... New lines... New ships... Expanding itineraries... Record numbers of cruise passengers... This 'slump' really means nothing, other than the stock markets at play. We have a CCL (Princess) cruise booked for later this year. The prices are NOT cheap. We have been considering adding an inside cabin close to our balcony. The price on what should be a 'cheap inside' just went UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mllewis48 Posted July 6, 2018 #4 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Obviously, no one can predict the future of any stock. My thoughts (for what they are worth) at $57 the stock pays a $2.00 dividend, which is 3.5% - not bad and has been increasing (it has doubled since 2014)! This helps to limit the downside in stock price IMO. As to the industry, I like the demographics of it - the retired community is increasing daily and is already at record levels, many of these retirees will turn to cruising for their vacations, plus they now have the time to do longer cruises. In addition, these retirees have more disposable income than past retirees. A current negative issue is the price of oil, which has recently jumped. Living in the oil patch, we certainly like this, but the local feeling is that oil prices will not stay high long term, as there are too many factors that could push it downward (increased fracking, new technologies, electric cars, OPEC issues, etc.). So, I do not see oil being a longer term negative. In disclosure, I recently purchased a fair amount of CCL stock, after watching it more than double since my last purchase in 2012. For what its worth.......... CCL has shown positive growth but hasn’t doubled in 4 years, $38 in 7/14? It’s in my portfolio only for the SB credits. JMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveOKC Posted July 6, 2018 #5 Share Posted July 6, 2018 CCL has shown positive growth but hasn’t doubled in 4 years, $38 in 7/14? It’s in my portfolio only for the SB credits. The dividends (which I were referring to) are currently 50 cents per quarter. According to the NASDAG website the dividends declared in 2014 were as follows: 0.25 10/14/2014 0.25 7/16/2014 0.25 4/22/2014 0.25 1/16/2014 As to stock price, it was $30 in Feb, 2012, the date of my stock purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mllewis48 Posted July 6, 2018 #6 Share Posted July 6, 2018 The dividends are currently 50 cents per quarter. According to the NASDAG website the dividends declared in 2014 were as follows: 0.25 10/14/2014 0.25 7/16/2014 0.25 4/22/2014 0.25 1/16/2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mllewis48 Posted July 6, 2018 #7 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Sorry thought you meant stock price but I agree the dividend has doubled, we bought at $40 and 25 cent dividend. With all the increases in shares + dividend increases and then add on the SBC for 15+ cruises I’m happy with the investment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mllewis48 Posted July 6, 2018 #8 Share Posted July 6, 2018 The dividends (which I were referring to) are currently 50 cents per quarter. According to the NASDAG website the dividends declared in 2014 were as follows: 0.25 10/14/2014 0.25 7/16/2014 0.25 4/22/2014 0.25 1/16/2014 As to stock price, it was $30 in Feb, 2012, the date of my stock purchase. You must have bought when the Costa Concordia went down in Italy and the stock tanked to below $30, great buy at the time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bUU Posted July 6, 2018 #9 Share Posted July 6, 2018 All investments go through cycles. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Gail & Marty sailing away Posted July 6, 2018 #10 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Between the fuel and so many new ships coming out Sent from my SM-G930T using Forums mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardboy Posted July 6, 2018 #11 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Higher oil prices and a trade war are going to have repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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