SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[TLCOhio]

Not sure I understand and/or can explain these financial tricks/tools known as "covered calls".  Feel free to explain more as to how you can "ride the wave" with this potential for these stock approaches.

 

From this below-connected financial news website this morning, they had this headline: “Create Instant 18% Yield On Royal Caribbean, If You're Willing To Hold Long Term” with these highlights: “The stock does not pay a dividend, but savvy investors can still create a yield from Royal Caribbean using covered calls.  A covered call involves buying 100 shares of the underlying stock and simultaneously selling a call option against those shares.  Selling calls limits the upside but increases the yield from the investment in the form of option premium.  The investor keeps the premium generated from selling calls no matter what happens with the stock.”

 

This is way above my "pay grade" and expertise level!!  Also shared in the report: "According to the IBD Stock Checkup, Royal Caribbean stock is ranked No. 1 in its group. It has a Composite Rating of 98, an EPS Rating of 81 and a Relative Strength Rating of 94." 

 

Full story at:

https://www.investors.com/research/options/royal-caribbean-stock-option-trading/?src=A00619&refcode=aflMarketWatch&_gl=1*j4dk9t*_gcl_au*MTc3NTQ5MDQwOC4xNzEzNTU5NzQ5*_ga*NzI5MzY4NzcyLjE3MTU4MDA4MzM.*_ga_K2H7B9JRSS*MTcxOTQxNjYxMC4yMzEuMS4xNzE5NDE2ODY3LjExLjAuMA..

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday morning, they had this headline: “Carnival’s Ship Is Coming In" with this sub-headline:  "Cruisers are booking further in advance and paying more as berths fill up.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Carnival’s stock was the top performer in the S&P 500 on Tuesday. William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia was among those raising forecasts. She noted that 'demand trends bode well for considerable pricing power in 2025.'  'We are hitting records on top of previous records' a positively gleeful Carnival chief Josh Weinstein said on an investor call.”

 

From this story, here are the flashing yellow lights: "Look below the waterline, though, and Carnival is a different company than it was before the day that 'Covid-19' entered our vocabulary. That is why its shares remain more than 60% below their January 2020 level. Long-term debt is almost triple, and shares outstanding nearly double their levels in those happier times. The important thing now is how quickly Carnival rights its balance sheet."

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/carnivals-ship-is-coming-in-90ecc2b8

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Canada 2022/2023: Scenic visuals, details from Canada Maritimes (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton Island).  Plus, new from Aug. 2023, exploring historic/charming Quebec City.    Visual/Info Summaries:

www.flickr.com/photos/196555480@N08/albums

[TLCOhio]

Quite an interesting week for the cruise stocks.  From the Wall Street Journal, below are some of their charts as of late Friday afternoon for the three major cruise lines, plus more.  

 

Of special interest was that earlier today, Royal Caribbean hit a new 52-week high at $162.50.  Impressive??  Carnival is getting closer to a 52-week high.  Norwegian is the slowest with its recovery.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

India to Singapore 2024: Live/Blog with many visuals, including “Golden Triangle”, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Malaysia:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2992045-live-terryohio-india-to-signapore-silver-moon-rising-pix’s/

 

It has been an impressive week for the cruise stock during the past five trading days.  Where for the month of July?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

Here's Viking for the past five trading days per WSJ.:

 

For the past month, Royal Caribbean has had a "rocky" ride, but a nice upward swing during late June.:

 

For comparison, here is how the overall S&P 500 stocks moved during the most recent five trading days on Wall Street.:

[Pizzasteve]

Someone was writing earlier about writing covered calls as a way to earn extra money. 

 

A few quick comments. 
1. It is an options trade where you offer to sell your shares at a price, while holding the shares.

 

2. A person pays you a premium for this option. The amount of the premium depends on the stock, time until expiration and price.

 

3. Usually one is ‘giving up’ the upside of ‘if the stock rises’ in exchange for the premium.

 

Some people get fooled into thinking this is ‘free money’ because the stock must rise and one has received the premium.

 

But these options are priced by people who know precisely the odds and sometimes you may be giving up a fortune.  For example I lost a large position in stock by writing calls during a year it tripled in price. Since then it is up over 10x from when I lost the shares, costing me huge profits in lost ‘upside’.

 

I don’t recommend trading options for anyone.  Spreads tend to be high and most don’t know how to price them properly.

 

 

Edited June 29 by Pizzasteve

[RetiredandTravel]

Volatility is also very important in options pricing.

 

 

 

 

[highplanesdrifters]

16 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Volatility is also very important in options pricing.

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly, the components of pricing in simplistic terms.

Intrinsic Value - what would it be worth if exercised today.

Time Value - How long till expiration. 

Volatility - How much and how fast is the underlying going to move.

 

16 hours ago, Pizzasteve said:

these options are priced by people who know precisely the odds

 

First - Pizza is my favorite food group!

 

Thousands of computers and quants are sitting in windowless rooms analyzing the minutiae and changing pricing models in nano second time frames.  

 

I cut my teeth in the way back machine when the CME first started options on FX futures. I was clueless then, and am slightly less clueless now.  Fortunately I had a team of youngsters who could help me. One of them identified that the local market makers were pricing the far out of the money with the at the money VOL.  Why?  Because I was coming up with a lot of trading ideas for the far OTMs. It became a game trying to trade efficently around their pricing models. We could do that because they were not updating their models in real time.  But that was 35 years ago. I would loose that game quickly now.

Edited June 30 by highplanesdrifters

[TLCOhio]

On 6/29/2024 at 5:11 PM, Pizzasteve said:

Some people get fooled into thinking this is ‘free money’ because the stock must rise and one has received the premium.  But these options are priced by people who know precisely the odds and sometimes you may be giving up a fortune.  For example I lost a large position in stock by writing calls during a year it tripled in price. Since then it is up over 10x from when I lost the shares, costing me huge profits in lost ‘upside’.   I don’t recommend trading options for anyone.  Spreads tend to be high and most don’t know how to price them properly.

 

Appreciate these great follow-ups, comments and sharing above and from R&T and highplanesdrifters.  Excellent added info, but still way, way over my head to understand for playing in that Wall Street "CASINO".  Too high risk when it's too challenging for my brain to comprehend and I cannot figure it out.

 

WOW!!  Wild stock market to start off July and the second half of 2014.  It will be a short week due to our Independence Day (from you know who) on Thursday.  Big, BIG drops for Carnival and Norwegian.  Royal Caribbean only fell 1.86% today.  The overall S&P was up 2.7%.  Strange movements?

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this pm, below are two of their charts.  Not a pretty-looking SLIDE!!??

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Love the Caribbean? Here are popular posts/links with Dominica having nearly 30,000 views. Much information for . . . .

Barbados:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2179164-barbados-50th-birthday-our-pixs-experiences-feb2015/page/3/#comment-65530134Or, Dominica:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2169714-dominica-love-our-experience-pictures-etc/page/3/#comment-66637276

 

Nearly 6% drops in just one day.  Why and how?  What's next??:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

On 6/30/2024 at 10:26 AM, highplanesdrifters said:

First - Pizza is my favorite food group!   Thousands of computers and quants are sitting in windowless rooms analyzing the minutiae and changing pricing models in nano second time frames.  I cut my teeth in the way back machine when the CME first started options on FX futures. I was clueless then, and am slightly less clueless now.  

 

Love the point above PIZZA being a favorite food group.  Agree.  Pep with extra cheese and sauce.  Good and tasty!!  

 

Maybe this below is the answer for the severe cruise ship stock drops today.  Stormy weather?

 

From this financial news website this afternoon, they had this headline: “What's Going On With Cruise Stocks As Category 4 Hurricane Beryl Churns In the Caribbean?” with these highlights: “Shares of cruise line stocks are trading lower Monday as Category 4 Hurricane Beryl churns in the Caribbean.  Hurricane Beryl strengthened to a Category 4 storm and made landfall in the Grenadines' Carriacou Island in the Caribbean Sea with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph Monday.  According to a report from Weather Channel, Beryl is expected to take a general west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea through the rest of the week.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39581491/whats-going-on-with-cruise-stocks-as-category-4-hurricane-beryl-churns-in-the-caribbean

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon vs. Porto?  Many different Portugal tips, options, ideas, visuals, etc. with more than 31,400 views at:   https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2558841-lisbon-vs-porto-which-best/page/7/#comment-66782296

[Dolcevita Diva]

20 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Maybe this below is the answer for the severe cruise ship stock drops today.  Stormy weather?

 

From this financial news website this afternoon, they had this headline: “What's Going On With Cruise Stocks As Category 4 Hurricane Beryl Churns In the Caribbean?” with these highlights: “Shares of cruise line stocks are trading lower Monday as Category 4 Hurricane Beryl churns in the Caribbean.  Hurricane Beryl strengthened to a Category 4 storm and made landfall in the Grenadines' Carriacou Island in the Caribbean Sea with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph Monday.  According to a report from Weather Channel, Beryl is expected to take a general west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea through the rest of the week.”

 

 

It may well be. This storm has/is going to devastate several popular cruise ports and it will take time to rebuild. The cruise lines will have to adjust itineraries for the remainder of the summer and possibly well into peak Caribbean season; as a result they may experience higher than projected cancellations.  

 

This is the first time in recorded history that a hurricane of this magnitude has appeared this early in the hurricane season, which is of special concern given the projections for an unusually high number of named storms and major storms this year. 

 

Here is hoping that the impacted islands/countries fare better than is feared. 

[TLCOhio]

On 7/2/2024 at 2:21 PM, Dolcevita Diva said:

This storm has/is going to devastate several popular cruise ports and it will take time to rebuild. The cruise lines will have to adjust itineraries for the remainder of the summer and possibly well into peak Caribbean season; as a result they may experience higher than projected cancellations.  This is the first time in recorded history that a hurricane of this magnitude has appeared this early in the hurricane season, which is of special concern given the projections for an unusually high number of named storms and major storms this year.   Here is hoping that the impacted islands/countries fare better than is feared. 

 

YES, sadly, this has been a hard hit, especially this early in the storm "season", to this scenic areas of the Caribbean.  News reports have been devastating as to how this region has been affected.  Appreciate this follow-up and we wish the best for those affected.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during the first three days of July.  With the stock market closed today for the July 4 holiday and Friday being a super light trading day, I am posting these today.  Not a good start for the second half of 2024??  

 

Why and how to explain it, especially as the rest of the market has been up, UP?  What do the Wall Street "experts" know that we do not understand?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Abu Dhabi vs. Dubai?  Many different UAE tips, options, ideas, visuals, etc., with more than 21,600 views at:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2521493-abu-dhabi-vs-dubai-procon-factors/page/5/#comment-66634467

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the charts for the recent trades of the three major cruise lines.  Starting July 1, things went negative by a significant margin and continued that way for all three days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

By contrast, here is a look at the upward trend with the overall S&P 500.:

 

As an added puzzling difference, Viking did not slide downward during the earlier part of this past week.  Why?  Viking seems to be doing very well since their opening on the market two months ago.  Right?:

[dawntrdr]

11 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Why and how to explain it, especially as the rest of the market has been up, UP?  What do the Wall Street "experts" know that we do not understand?

I think this is due to Hurricane Beryl, for sure.

[TLCOhio]

Agree with dawntrdr that Wall Street must be anticipating that the Caribbean hurricane is driving this negative stock slide.  

 

Did a little more digging.  The impacts seem worse than I had expected.  From USA Today and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: “Some Caribbean islands see almost 'total destruction' after Hurricane Beryl” with these highlights: “A more complete picture emerged Wednesday of the extensive damage wrought by Hurricane Beryl's trek across the Windward Islands, revealing destruction and at least seven deaths.  At least three islands report more than 90% of the homes and buildings either destroyed or severely damaged, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency reported Wednesday. All three are within the chain of Grenadine Islands, where Beryl roared into the Caribbean on the southern end of the Windwards, between St. Vincent and Grenada."

 

Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell described "total destruction" on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique.  "There's really nothing that can prepare you to see this level of destruction," Mitchell said. "It is almost Armageddon-like, almost total damage and destruction of all buildings. Complete devastation and destruction of agriculture. Complete and total destruction of the natural environment."

 

As linked below, we have previously visited Grenada and loved it very much.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/some-caribbean-islands-see-almost-total-destruction-after-hurricane-beryl/ar-BB1pnhjf?ocid=BingNewsVerp

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Enjoy the Caribbean? Here are two popular posts/links with thousands of views with much info for . . . . Grenada   

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2179927-grenada-pixs-fun-experiences-jan2015/page/2/#comment-66823149

Or, Aruba:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2178325-aruba-pixs-fun-experiences-feb2015/page/3/#comment-66677721

[highplanesdrifters]

Just now, TLCOhio said:

What do the Wall Street "experts" know that we do not understand?

 

Hedge fund managers rarely beat the S&P these days.  I've often wondered who the experts really are and what is their expertise besides collecting commissions. 😃

[TLCOhio]

40 minutes ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Hedge fund managers rarely beat the S&P these days.  I've often wondered who the experts really are and what is their expertise besides collecting commissions. 😃

 

Yes and YES!!   Agree much above as to the serious questions facing hedge funds and the variety of Wall Street "experts" these days.  When that next recession comes, much will exposed with hedge funds and their self-serving "shell game", casino tactics.  Many carry their "assets" at inflated book values when the realistic and/or market values these days are much lower.  This is especially true with many office and retail properties.  Appreciate this great, wise follow-up.  When "it" happens, we can look back and said "we told you so" about hedge funds.  Right or wrong?

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister Barron's financial publication and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: “Travel Is the American Way—Even When It’s Pricey” with these highlights: “High inflation and interest rates have made Americans wary of overspending, and they’re cutting back on groceries and electronics while holding off on major purchases such as a new home.  Yet there’s still one area they’re happy to splurge—travel. And this summer is gearing up to be yet another record-breaking season.  People are also venturing further. Intentions to vacation internationally are at a record high, according to data from the Conference Board and Mastercard Economics Institute.”

 

Some travel pricing drops were noted.  Also of interest shared in this reporting:  "These consumption trends won’t change soon, Moody's expert Claire Li wrote. She expects consumption growth over the next few quarters will continue to be propelled by spending on services rather than goods, even if total expenditures slow down.  Lower airfare has also encouraged people to travel. After two years of increases, plane-ticket prices are trending down. In May, airfare was 5.9% lower than a year ago.  While there is a strong desire to travel, consumers are becoming more strategic about how, when, and where they go, Mastercard said.  Luxury travel—one of the fastest-growing segments in the industry— could also remain strong. Indeed, that bullishness over wealthy travelers is largely why Viking Holdings stock has risen 18% since the company’s initial public offering this year. Cruises in general are having a moment, as lower and middle-income consumers look for the best bang for their buck."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/travel-is-the-american-way-even-when-it-s-pricey/ar-BB1po9Sf?ocid=BingNewsVerp

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 260,222 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1362155-solstice-livefirst-timer-reportspix’s-italycroatian-june-7-19/

[highplanesdrifters]

Just now, TLCOhio said:

Luxury travel—one of the fastest-growing segments in the industry— could also remain strong. Indeed,

 

UGH!  I'm late in planning our before and after for Japan cruise next spring.  Prices and availability, YIKES!

[silkismom]

Of course Denali NP is closed because of fires, that potentially messes up cruise/tours in Alaska. 

[TLCOhio]

2 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

UGH!  I'm late in planning our before and after for Japan cruise next spring.  Prices and availability, YIKES!

 

Agree, Japan has its challenges in lining up the best avails . . . and at a reasonable cost.  Part of it was that Japan was late to re-open after the Covid shut-down.  AND, it's very popular now . . . and not cheap normally.  In early March, we stayed in Tokyo for three nights and the hotels can be challenging to afford and/or get the best locations.  Be prepared for sticker shock!!

 

BUT, from our first visit to Japan, it was definitely worth it!!  Need proof and evidence??  See four quick visuals to help build excitement for that upcoming adventure.  First is the Giant Buddha in nearly and super charming Kamakura.  And, fortunately for us, the cherry blossoms in Kamakura were out in early March for us.  Wonderful!!   Third is just one sample for the Tokyo lights and evenings.  Fourth proves there are many temples and much in the way of the interesting architecture to experience and see.  

 

 

 

 

Lots of markets, shopping, great food, etc., in Tokyo and at other locations.  You can see Tokyo as the world's largest city, but make sure you can explore the smaller towns, charming countrysides, etc.  We definitely want to go back to Japan and experience more.  Have good friends there now and expect to gain added updates and Japan tips/insights. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 253,116 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1172051-livesilver-cloud-norway-coastfjords-july-1-16-reports/

[TLCOhio]

2 hours ago, silkismom said:

Of course Denali NP is closed because of fires, that potentially messes up cruise/tours in Alaska. 

 

WOW!!  Had no idea that things were that challenged for this super scenic part of Alaska.  Yes, sadly, that will impact Silversea and the other cruise lines.  Appreciate the news and updating.  

 

Fortunately for us, we were able to do the Silversea extension up to Denali in 2019 after completing our Vancouver to Seward sailing on the Silver Muse.  That was early August when we were up there.  At that time, the rains came at night and caused challenges in that part of the world with rail lines getting washed out for our train return to Anchorage. Weather can be a serious variable in travel.    

 

Hope for the creatures, such as this one shown below from during our visit there, can survive with these fire challenges.  Good luck to all doing Alaska.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals, Our firsts in these scenic areas!  Now at 22,443 views. Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[highplanesdrifters]

3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

You can see Tokyo as the world's largest city, but make sure you can explore the smaller towns, charming countrysides

 

Great advice! We are doing just that, skipping Tokyo and Kyoto. Trying Ponant for the first time. Starting in Kagoshima (inland sea) and ending in

Ishigaki (sub tropical). Lovie grew up in Japan, and I did a lot of biz there, so it will be fun to explore those more remote places. 

 

On our way home we are looking for a Ryokan in Hakone if you have any suggestions. They best all seem to be booked.

 

Thanks for all your great visuals!