CDC letting the NO sail order expire

[cruisr]

Reported on Travel Weekly and I just received an email from RSSC
 

We will wait and see what happens.

Edited October 30, 2020 by cruisr

[cruiseman58]

We will return to cruising when there is a tested reliable vaccine.

[cruiseej]

23 hours ago, cruiseman58 said:

We will return to cruising when there is a tested reliable vaccine.

 

It's highly likely there will be a vaccine with some availability in 2021. But it's important for everyone to set their expectations regarding "reliable." The vaccine(s) that become available next year will significantly decrease the chance of getting the disease, and may possibly reduce its impact if you do -- but it's almost certain that a vaccine won't give anyone a guarantee of not getting the virus. The vaccine may be only 60% effective, or if we're lucky, closer to 80% effective. But it will not provide complete immunity; it will significantly improve your odds.

[hamrag]

2 hours ago, cruiseej said:

....The vaccine may be only 60% effective, or if we're lucky, closer to 80% effective....

I have read nothing that would support your theory! Here in the UK, it is reported that the effectiveness is more like 30% and the vaccine may only provide immunity for 3 or 4 months.

[hamrag]

Just now, hamrag said:

I have read nothing that would support your theory! Here in the UK, it is reported that the effectiveness is more likely to be 30% and the vaccine may only provide immunity for 3 or 4 months.

 

[cruiseej]

On 11/6/2020 at 5:27 PM, hamrag said:

I have read nothing that would support your theory! Here in the UK, it is reported that the effectiveness is more like 30% and the vaccine may only provide immunity for 3 or 4 months.

 

First, I did not advance any "theory."

 

Second, there has been no release of data on vaccine effectiveness yet, because not one of the vaccine candidate trials have concluded yet. In the US, medical experts have said they'd need to see effectiveness of at least 50% to approve a vaccine. But vaccine effectiveness varies widely depending on the disease, from 50-60% up to 98+%. The speculation has been that a COVID vaccine will be on the lower end because it will be similar to flu vaccines. But it's worth noting that there are a wide variety of approaches to creating a COVID vaccine, so it's possible one of them will prove to be more effective. 

 

And as for how long immunity conferred from a vaccine -- or contracting the virus -- lasts, no one knows. How can they? Even the earliest vaccine trial subjects only received their vaccines a few months ago. It will take time to know how long immunity lasts -- and there may be meaningful differences between the various vaccine candidates.

[markham]

Hamrag,

 

Today’s news from Pfizer puts your “30%” rumor in the shade. 
No doubt more trial data from other firms will be out in the coming few weeks.

BTW, I am in the UK and read the broadsheets. Where and when did you say you heard about this 30% effectiveness? That would be one source I would abandon. Gladly so.

 

Happy and healthy sailing!

 

[cruiseej]

@markham I agree! If Pfizer's early data -- showing a 90% effectiveness rate -- holds up as they get data from a larger sample, that would be a huge victory. It still won't confer guaranteed immunity, but it will give even better odds of blocking infection than we've been led to expect by scientists over the past few months. Importantly, if a large percentage of the population gets such a vaccine -- and we know that's a very big 'if' at the moment -- it will tamp down severely on future community spread of the disease. That is, the disease will still exist, but it won't spread much because most of the population won't be able to get it and spread it. That's very important for the future of cruising.

 

As you say, we'll start hearing about early results from other vaccine makers over the next month, and it may take some time for things to settle out about whether one has the 'winning' approach, or whether multiple vaccines will be available with similar efficacy. It's worth keeping in mind that Pfizer's vaccine will be the most difficult to distribute because of the requirement of super-cold storage, which will make it difficult in foist-world countries and a major obstacle in third-world countries. Pfizer also is not participating in the US government funded "Operation Warp Speed" to help fund not only development but a massive distribution operation for an eventual vaccine. Some of the other vaccines under development do not require the super-cooled storage, and would thus be easier to distribute.

[hamrag]

7 hours ago, markham said:

Hamrag,

 

Today’s news from Pfizer puts your “30%” rumor in the shade. 
No doubt more trial data from other firms will be out in the coming few weeks.

BTW, I am in the UK and read the broadsheets. Where and when did you say you heard about this 30% effectiveness? That would be one source I would abandon. Gladly so.

 

Happy and healthy sailing!

 

At the time of my posting, there was no anticipation of up to 90% effectiveness, although we still do not know how long it will be effective for. The link below answers your where and when question. 😉

Have a good evening.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/30/covid-vaccine-rush-could-make-pandemic-worse-say-scientists

 

[cruiseej]

@hamrag  That article (which is more than two months old) talks about why 30% effectiveness would be a bad thing, but it doesn't actually say there are any "reports that the effectiveness is more likely to be 30%". Nor does it mention only short effectiveness. No one has the data on the duration or the efficacy vaccines being tested yet. Well, until Pfizer became the first to share partial results, which fortunately seem strong enough to make this discussion moot. 😉