Possible storm in the Caribbean late next week--HURRICANE IAN THREAD*********

[RockHoundTX]

14 hours ago, ZoeyVictoria said:

We also live in Bradenton, close to the coast.  We have a 4th floor condo, so flooding wouldn’t be an issue (except for our cars).  I looked at flights to evacuate to family up north.  It would be far cheaper to get on a ship on Monday.  If the weather is still extreme on Friday, the ship might not dock until the next day, keeping us safe.  I need to think about this carefully, because ships are almost sold out but we will be obligated once we book.  Can anyone offer anything I haven’t thought of because I am so stressed?

Sounds like you are new to living on the coast. If you did not come up with a plan, a back-up plan, and a back-up to the back-up plan 3 months ago, then you are behind the 8-ball. By early June you should have enough food, water, and other necessities to last a few weeks. The second that the TV weathman says "potential hurricane in the Gulf", there is a mad rush on the supermarkets, hardware stores, and gas stations. Figure that for any location on the Gulf of Mexico (from Texas all the way to Florida), you will be in the "5-day cone of uncertainty" for a tropical storm or hurricane about once every 2 years or so and thus something to get used to. 

 

I have been on cruises when there was really bad weather (hurricane, tornados, wild-fires, etc.) and the folks from those areas had a miserable time. Most were worried about their homes, friends, pets, etc and tended to not have a good time. Hopping on a last-minute cruise is probably not a good idea. Hopping on a cruise out of Tampa would be a particulary bad idea since waves are likely to be "interesting" throughout the Gulf. I have been on 3 cruises with 20+ foot waves and can say most folks do not enjoy them (LOTS of green faces even on some of the biggest ships).     

 

If you don't already have a full tank of gas (plus maybe another 5-gallon tank), then you should do that now. Some gas stations WILL run out of gas. Worse yet is the grid-lock on the major evacuation routes. What would normally be a 3-4 hour drive can turn into 24 or 48 hours (check out what happened when Houston evacuated). When this happens, cars start running out of gas and the delays just feed on themselves. 

 

Most folks I know that live on the coast have a grab-bag with all their valubles, medications, and important docs. They have a vehicle with a full gas-tank, 2-3 days of food in a cooler, and a map of the back-roads to a Walmart or other large shopping area about 50-75 miles in-land (assuming that they don't have friends or relatives they can stay with). Once an evacuation notice is made, they hop in their vehicle and go. Once they get to their destination, they look for sturdy structures to use as a wind-block (concrete buildings, car wash, etc.) and away from trees that may fall.  

 

Stay safe.

 

(By the way, my great, great grandfather was the Founder of Bradenton: William Iredell Turner)

[Guest BasicSailor]

8 hours ago, RockHoundTX said:

Sounds like you are new to living on the coast. If you did not come up with a plan, a back-up plan, and a back-up to the back-up plan 3 months ago, then you are behind the 8-ball. By early June you should have enough food, water, and other necessities to last a few weeks. The second that the TV weathman says "potential hurricane in the Gulf", there is a mad rush on the supermarkets, hardware stores, and gas stations. Figure that for any location on the Gulf of Mexico (from Texas all the way to Florida), you will be in the "5-day cone of uncertainty" for a tropical storm or hurricane about once every 2 years or so and thus something to get used to. 

 

I have been on cruises when there was really bad weather (hurricane, tornados, wild-fires, etc.) and the folks from those areas had a miserable time. Most were worried about their homes, friends, pets, etc and tended to not have a good time. Hopping on a last-minute cruise is probably not a good idea. Hopping on a cruise out of Tampa would be a particulary bad idea since waves are likely to be "interesting" throughout the Gulf. I have been on 3 cruises with 20+ foot waves and can say most folks do not enjoy them (LOTS of green faces even on some of the biggest ships).     

 

If you don't already have a full tank of gas (plus maybe another 5-gallon tank), then you should do that now. Some gas stations WILL run out of gas. Worse yet is the grid-lock on the major evacuation routes. What would normally be a 3-4 hour drive can turn into 24 or 48 hours (check out what happened when Houston evacuated). When this happens, cars start running out of gas and the delays just feed on themselves. 

 

Most folks I know that live on the coast have a grab-bag with all their valubles, medications, and important docs. They have a vehicle with a full gas-tank, 2-3 days of food in a cooler, and a map of the back-roads to a Walmart or other large shopping area about 50-75 miles in-land (assuming that they don't have friends or relatives they can stay with). Once an evacuation notice is made, they hop in their vehicle and go. Once they get to their destination, they look for sturdy structures to use as a wind-block (concrete buildings, car wash, etc.) and away from trees that may fall.  

 

Stay safe.

 

(By the way, my great, great grandfather was the Founder of Bradenton: William Iredell Turner)

Really great advice 👍 Just to add make sure you have a workable generator for your home. I can't tell you how much this has saved on our food and electric.     You know you're in for a Rockfest on the ship when you see all those little white Barf bags taped in the hallways and elevators entrance.

[celebrityxxo]

Ian. Intensified  overnight tracking more east..getting out should b fine,  but port Canaveral  may sustain  damage to terminal  if stays w current  track..East coast philly area flights for this evening  will  b an issue  as well from storms..not a great weeknd to travel..

[wolft927]

One model shows it heading more toward the north west part of Florida, another one has it making landfall  in the Tampa area or fort Meyer. We should have a better idea tomorrow. I drive down to port Canaveral Wednesday from Charlotte for my cruise Thursday unless NCL changes it to Friday, 

[kelkel2]

Any news on what Ian is supposed to be categorized as when it hits the Caymans? My sister has a land vacation planned there coming up and is pretty stressed she won’t get to go. 

[lostsoulcruiser]

1 minute ago, kelkel2 said:

Any news on what Ian is supposed to be categorized as when it hits the Caymans? My sister has a land vacation planned there coming up and is pretty stressed she won’t get to go. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/125324_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

Here is the latest  NHC projections/path.  The NHC also said "Hurricane or tropical storm conditions   are expected on Grand Cayman beginning early Monday".

You can see the NHC strength projections by date.

[Homosassa]

Track for Ian has been slowly moving to the northwest.

 

At this point southern Florida is out of the cone.

 

Most of the projection around here is probably for the storm to come ashore someone around the Pensacola / Alabama border.

 

Of course, until Ian hits that hot water area off the Yucatan peninsula and is pulled up by the Jet Stream, it is all best guess scenarios by the meteorologists  down here  who rapidly gain expertise in tropical weather and usually are correct.

 

Personally, at this point, I expect  rain and  maybe some wind as the storm passes offshore on its  way to the Alabama/Florida border. I live an hour north of Tampa.

[Homosassa]

On 9/23/2022 at 7:12 PM, jeffr6596 said:

Leaving on the Ecstacy Monday 26 out of Mobile returning Oct 1..  I assume if the storm stays on course we would have very little impact other than some rocking in the crib nights.  Am I “on track”?

Um, maybe not.

 

Many predictions have the hurricane heading to the Florida/Alabama area. Cat 4 out in the Gulf, decreasing to Cat 1 at landfall.

[spleenstomper]

I haven’t had time to watch or track this storm. Levi at Tropical Tidbits is always on point. Look for his videos. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Edited September 25, 2022 by spleenstomper

[SeaHunt]

4 hours ago, wolft927 said:

One model shows it heading more toward the north west part of Florida, another one has it making landfall  in the Tampa area or fort Meyer. We should have a better idea tomorrow. I drive down to port Canaveral Wednesday from Charlotte for my cruise Thursday unless NCL changes it to Friday, 

 

😉 You can follow Port Canaveral port conditions here:

 

https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Severe-Weather-Awareness

 

Right now it shows (but usually can/will change quite a number of times):

 

CONDITION "WHISKEY" - The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port (COTP) has set hurricane condition "WHISKEY" for Port Canaveral: Sustained gale force winds are predicted within 72 hours.  Port Canaveral is currently fully open and conducting normal Port operations.

 

Hope you have a wonderful cruise with no delays! I'm right up the coast so fingers crossed here too.

[Essiesmom]

There is a forum called Hurricane Zone under Cruise Discussion Topics.  Fellow there keeps things pretty updated.  EM