CCL stock ceo on CNBC now interview

[tidecat]

5 minutes ago, n6uqqq said:

Not only that but Carnival has diluted the amount of outstanding shares from around 710 million in 2020 to the current approximately 1.25 billion shares. That is a lot of shares to pay dividends on now. 

It's actually not so much the extra cash out for a dividend - even for a $0.50 dividend that would only be about $250 million - it's the dilution is a terrible drag on earnings per share. Carnival would have to make close to $5 billion in profit just to get to $4.00 in per share earnings. In 2019 that would have required less than $3 billion in profit. Given that the interest on the additional debt is a $1.5 billion noose, Carnival really needs to be capable of making $6-$7 billion before interest expense to get to $4.00 in EPS.

 

There is also $5 billion remaining in debt due in FY 2027, and more than $8 billion remaining due in FY 2028. After that the maturities decrease, although FY 2029 is still pretty heavy with at least $3.1 billion in maturities. The $2.03 billion due in May 2028 at 10.4% interest really needs to be paid off in 2025 or 2026. There's also $1 billion due in 2030 at 10.5% interest sitting out there, although don't see a realistic path to pay it off before 2029 given how much is due in 2027 and 2028.

 

I don't see a dividend before 2030.

[BlerkOne]

I see the dividend beginning at 0.10 and interest rates starting to decline allowing better refinance terms. So far, Carnival hasn't had trouble extending debt, yet paying it down ahead of schedule.

[firefly333]

7 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I see the dividend beginning at 0.10 and interest rates starting to decline allowing better refinance terms. So far, Carnival hasn't had trouble extending debt, yet paying it down ahead of schedule.

They have been wishing and hoping for rate cuts since the last rate hike last year. So far no rate cuts. Now they hope the fed will do one in sept. Last year they were predicting 6 this year. 

 

Jan and feb signs inflation wasnt tamed, just a few signs lately maybe under control. Many now are saying 2% a unrealistic goal. Allow more inflation,  cut soon. More numbers on economy released this morning. Everyone keeps hoping for more progress than we are seeing. 

 

If carnival paying over 10% for their debt, that's more than a mortgage. Maybe they can get thekr credit worthiness improved to drop their borrowing rates. That's really killing them. If people cant afford a 7% mortgage, 10% + is a killer. 

 

I cant wait to see more debt paid off. Talk of dividends way too early, they just barely finally turned a profit. Patience folks. Give them time for a year's worth of profits first. Put covid behind them. They need to crawl a lot further out of their debt hole before even thinking of a dividend. Years ahead. 

[BlerkOne]

7 hours ago, firefly333 said:

 

I cant wait to see more debt paid off. Talk of dividends way too early, they just barely finally turned a profit. Patience folks. Give them time for a year's worth of profits first. Put covid behind them. They need to crawl a lot further out of their debt hole before even thinking of a dividend. Years ahead. 

Carnival has been paying down debt early or they would have shown profits. The cost of a minimal dividend is minimal; the message if projects is far greater. Individual investors don't really matter; institutions do.

[tidecat]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival has been paying down debt early or they would have shown profits. The cost of a minimal dividend is minimal; the message if projects is far greater. Individual investors don't really matter; institutions do.

Repayment of debt does not reduce reported profit. The company has not been profitable until recently due to a combination of not being able to sail at full capacity everywhere until 2023 and elevated interest on the debt it took on during the pandemic.

 

The benefit of paying debt off early is to reduce interest expense in future periods, which frees up cash and raises profit.

 

Based on one of the loan agreements in the 10-Q, there doesn't appear to be a way to legally pay a dividend before August 2027 unless if the company is rated investment grade by the major credit rating agencies. Even if the rating threshold is met before then, that is going to fall in the heaviest part of the maturities in 2027-28.

[firefly333]

Still in play. Market and dow were down friday but ccl eeked out a small gain, today looks green pre market. 

 

I took a screen shot here because after today you cant see where it was right before earnings. In fact it dipped a bit after hours the night before evenings, so some bet wrong. Bullish chart.

 

[Old Fart Cruisers]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Still in play. Market and dow were down friday but ccl eeked out a small gain, today looks green pre market.

 

Down 5% in early trading today.  Still up nicely compared to pre-earnings report, but still a pretty big drop.

[firefly333]

11 minutes ago, Old Fart Cruisers said:

 

Down 5% in early trading today.  Still up nicely compared to pre-earnings report, but still a pretty big drop.

I saw, day traders took profits and ran. Hopefully will establish a new higher support level. As cramer said people keep acting like all this strong cruise booking is going to go away.  .. wouldn't last. Idk as more capacity is being added might soften prices. Still, prices seem worth it to me overall. I've still been booking. 

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, Old Fart Cruisers said:

 

Down 5% in early trading today.  Still up nicely compared to pre-earnings report, but still a pretty big drop.

Oil is up, cruise lines down. Imagine that.

[firefly333]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Oil is up, cruise lines down. Imagine that.

Actually cruise stocks dont react much to oil daily ups and downs unless oil tops 80 and starts to look like it will run.

 

CNBC says traders got wind that the hurricane is affecting some cruise ships. All 3 are down today because of hurricane beryl or whatever name. Icon and wonder lost ports and rerouted. Idk about any carnival ships. Nothing that will have a large impact on profits. 

[BlerkOne]

49 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Actually cruise stocks dont react much to oil daily ups and downs unless oil tops 80 and starts to look like it will run.

 

CNBC says traders got wind that the hurricane is affecting some cruise ships. All 3 are down today because of hurricane beryl or whatever name. Icon and wonder lost ports and rerouted. Idk about any carnival ships. Nothing that will have a large impact on profits. 

Oil is over 83, the Middle East is still a mess, and Russia is still in Ukraine. There are record breaking temperatures around the globe.

 

Obviously the hurricane is a concern, but then the season was predicted to be above normal. Shouldn't be a shocker there.

 

The Icon fire was not predicted.

 

Most people can get the same or better results than analysts by throwing darts, but if you want to believe analysts, some are expecting oil to go above $90 this year.

 

 

[firefly333]

22 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Oil is over 83, the Middle East is still a mess, and Russia is still in Ukraine. There are record breaking temperatures around the globe.

 

Obviously the hurricane is a concern, but then the season was predicted to be above normal. Shouldn't be a shocker there.

 

The Icon fire was not predicted.

 

Most people can get the same or better results than analysts by throwing darts, but if you want to believe analysts, some are expecting oil to go above $90 this year.

 

 

I'm just saying what the day traders are thinking today. I dont see oil making a strong upward break. At least not now. Day traders gotta get together and find a play. Small fire wasnt enough to move the stock. Luckily small. 

 

I'm with cramer royal Caribbean at all time highs, highest on record I think but carnival cant make $20, he thinks ccl under valued vs what rcl is doing. But today was day traders. They didn't wake up and say oil is high, let's take down all cruise stocks. They said this hurricane could be a sign of what is to come, a very active hurricane season. Day traders just act together. They all get the same alert, let's all do this today. 

 

I get it you dont day etrade or get those alerts what they will trade today. 

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm just saying what the day traders are thinking today. I dont see oil making a strong upward break. At least not now. Day traders gotta get together and find a play. Small fire wasnt enough to move the stock. Luckily small. 

 

I'm with cramer royal Caribbean at all time highs, highest on record I think but carnival cant make $20, he thinks ccl under valued vs what rcl is doing. But today was day traders. They didn't wake up and say oil is high, let's take down all cruise stocks. They said this hurricane could be a sign of what is to come, a very active hurricane season. Day traders just act together. They all get the same alert, let's all do this today. 

 

I get it you dont day etrade or get those alerts what they will trade today. 

I don't read cruise boards to learn what day traders do. Or any board. Don't 95% of day traders lose money?

 

I don't see a Middle East or a Ukraine solution this year. Oil is always in play.

 

Not just for cruise ships, hurricanes can also impact oil production.

[firefly333]

CNBC keeping hammering on their theme that hurricane hit cat 5 and cruise lines down imo influenced the sell off. Brian on last call brought it up, hes a oil bull but showed nclh down 5.9% because of the hurricane.

 

Premarket today again CNBC is on it again. Cruise lines down pre market because of hurricane and they will be keeping a eye onmthem. He also brought up oil, 1m barrels being released from reserve to ease the pain at the pump over the holiday and named off who bought them. 

 

I agree that hurricanes do affect the price of oil, but CNBC hammering negatively on cruise stocks also not helpfully. I'm sure this will pass. But knocked down the price for sure. When ccl has enough yearly profit for a pe, then hopefully it will come back more. Dont write it off, this is temporary day trading, they already moved on. 

[BlerkOne]

Of course hurricanes have an impact, but oil has been trending up for the past month - before there was a hurricane.

 

Analysts can also have an impact whether they are right or wrong.

 

Just saying...

[elcuchio24]

Hmm. Almost makes me glad I bought so much of all the cruise/airline/hotel stocks in 2020 when many were saying we would never travel again and be masked up til we died. Maybe I'll sell a tad and book another 8 cruises...