Rising fuel prices - a return to ship passenger service?

[ancldaca]

Ok... We all know that fuel prices are way up and will stabilize at best from here on out. The airlines are loosing billions which means they aren't charging us enough for their airfares.

 

So, once the airlines do raise their prices across the board to remain solvent and air travel returns to being the luxury it was in the beginning, do you think that regular ship passenger service will make a limited comeback?

 

I think it just might. Oh, by no means to the same degree as before air travel, but at least in some cases where it may make sense.

[Spikesgirl]

If I'm reading your question correcting, you are wondering whether or not folks will start using cruise ships (as well as other ships) as a method of getting from Point A to Point B?

 

I think that folks are in too much of a hurry to use ships as a method of transporation and I think flying will always be less expensive than a cruise. This might not hold true for freighters or other types of ships, but most folks just don't have the time in their lives to take ships as a transporation method.

 

Just my opinion -

 

Charlie

[Curro]

I think that it is aready happening, but only for shorter routes. Here in spain, ferries from the mainland to Majorca or Ibiza are gaining popularity, since the fastest ones can do the crossing in under 4 hours and people avoid the wait at the airport. The plane still takes much less, but I think is all th airport wait and restrictions on luggage (and the possibility of taking your car on a ferry) what is making the difference. Also, in a near future, there will probably be ships capable of sailing at 50 knots...

 

However, for longer routes I don't think that ships can compete with planes. Mostly because of the time issue.

[cruiserbryce]

I think the premium price for traveling by air will still be worth saving the time of traveling by ship

[GORDONCHICK]

Depends on the purpose of your travel.

[RetireeWannabee]

Seems to me that cruising was an even less affordable luxury "back in the day." We knew people that had flown but didn't know anyone that had taken a cruise.

 

From Indiana, it would be impractical for me to take a cruise ship to, say, Florida. Perhaps those living in or near port cities would indulge, but if you're referring to nothing but TAs, I don't think the market would be sustainable.

 

If fuel costs have already emptied the wallets, it's unlikely that people would book more TAs as it would be too expensive to stay at the destination city or get to the departure city (especially while the dollar is so down). It would still be cheaper and quicker for me to fly overseas than book passage for 2 on a ship.

 

Am I misunderstanding your meaning?

[Terpnut]

Rising fuel prices increase the costs of all forms of transportation. I assume that sea travel is only marginally more fuel efficient (if at all) relative to air travel so there's probably very little inherent advantage. Thus, I don't think rising fuel prices alone won't help passenger ship traffic/service.

[ancldaca]

Interesting responses so far and partially generated by too little starting info on my part I suppose. I'd like to apologize for that.

 

However, let's try it this way. I know I can book a 7 nighter on Carnival at about $500pp/d.o. So, that's roughly $72/day.

 

Ok, let's assume that one wants to take a trip out of Florida to the Caribbean (and since I live here, let's say the starting point is Puerto Rico).

 

It takes about 2 days to get from there to here, thus, with an inside cabin, the price could be about $150 each way. Call it $500 RT with extra fuel costs thrown in for good measure.

 

A regular flight SJU/MIA is now about $350 RT or so (I know, we can still get some discounts on spot sales, etc.). But let's assume it triples to $1050RT. I may not be in the airline business, but it isn't out of the realm of possibilities less than a couple of years out.

 

Ok, it's that type of scenario I was thinking of. One where airline travel is significantly more expensive than sea travel not just marginally (and yes, maritime shipping is much cheaper else all our imports would be flown in). Similarly, a flight over the pond would easily be in the $3-4,000 range in tourist class.

 

Actually, I would see this type of 'cruising' not as vacation cruising but as transportation to get from point A to point B, much in the same way that flying nowadays no longer is anything but an airborne city bus...

[Terpnut]

Interesting responses so far and partially generated by too little starting info on my part I suppose. I'd like to apologize for that.

 

However, let's try it this way. I know I can book a 7 nighter on Carnival at about $500pp/d.o. So, that's roughly $72/day.

 

Ok, let's assume that one wants to take a trip out of Florida to the Caribbean (and since I live here, let's say the starting point is Puerto Rico).

 

It takes about 2 days to get from there to here, thus, with an inside cabin, the price could be about $150 each way. Call it $500 RT with extra fuel costs thrown in for good measure.

 

A regular flight SJU/MIA is now about $350 RT or so (I know, we can still get some discounts on spot sales, etc.). But let's assume it triples to $1050RT. I may not be in the airline business, but it isn't out of the realm of possibilities less than a couple of years out.

 

Ok, it's that type of scenario I was thinking of. One where airline travel is significantly more expensive than sea travel not just marginally (and yes, maritime shipping is much cheaper else all our imports would be flown in). Similarly, a flight over the pond would easily be in the $3-4,000 range in tourist class.

 

Actually, I would see this type of 'cruising' not as vacation cruising but as transportation to get from point A to point B, much in the same way that flying nowadays no longer is anything but an airborne city bus...

First, I don't see how you can assume that airfare will triple while cruise fares are stable. Second, if the costs and fares do actually increase that much, simple economics says that demand will be drastically reduced across the board. The economics will not force consumers to move from flying to cruising--they simply force consumers to not travel at all. Thus the end result of higher prices will more likely be that all forms of transportation will see reduced demand.

 

Besides, cruising as it is today is not a form of transportation--it's a leisure activity/vacation. To make the economies work as pure transportation, they'd probably have to double or triple the passenger load and greatly reduce crew and amenities. They would have to dramatically reduce costs and increase passenger revenues to even have a chance to make this viable. Even so, I can't see this ever being a viable business.

[glgolfer]

We were on a 12 day transatlantic last April in a balcony cabin booked with a resident rate of less than $900PP. Airfare oneway back was over $1000PP. It would be great if one of the main cruise lines started doing roundtrips to Europe B2B.

You could cruise over, spend a week or 2 there and cruise back.

[pmfan]

We were on a 12 day transatlantic last April in a balcony cabin booked with a resident rate of less than $900PP. Airfare oneway back was over $1000PP. It would be great if one of the main cruise lines started doing roundtrips to Europe B2B.

You could cruise over, spend a week or 2 there and cruise back.

 

This would be great for those who are retired. ;)

[Terpnut]

We were on a 12 day transatlantic last April in a balcony cabin booked with a resident rate of less than $900PP. Airfare oneway back was over $1000PP. It would be great if one of the main cruise lines started doing roundtrips to Europe B2B.

You could cruise over, spend a week or 2 there and cruise back.

Cruise fares for less than $100/day are not the norm, and the cruise lines probably don't make very much on these specific fares or on their repositioning trans-Atlantic cruises overall. And you can't compare one-way cruises to one-way flights. In general, airlines (and car rentals) price and make money on round-trip, but and cruiselines don't so you are comparing apples and oranges. The price and time savings of round-trip flight will be better 99% of the time over a roundtrip cruise.

[Traveler Nina]

We were on a 12 day transatlantic last April in a balcony cabin booked with a resident rate of less than $900PP. Airfare oneway back was over $1000PP. It would be great if one of the main cruise lines started doing roundtrips to Europe B2B.

You could cruise over, spend a week or 2 there and cruise back.

 

Although not a mass market line there is a line that does regularly scheduled transatlantic service, Cunard from New York to Southampton on the Queen Mary 2 from Spring to Fall with a few other trips in between. Although, because of the premium nature of the line fares are usually higher then $900. However, there are times where they get close to that! (Usually early spring) For people that don't like to fly or are moving from the US to Europe or the other way around it is a very popular option. This is in additon to those who love the experience of a crossing in and of it's self. Will it be the new mode of transport? Who knows, only time will tell :)

[glgolfer]

terpnut: you missed the point. I wasn't comparing anything, just saying it would be nice for a line other than Cunard (Traveler Nina, I know about those and what the fares are) to offer regular crossings for folks that had the time and inclination.

We did get a resident rate (there was a senior rate we could have used that was the same price, the LA just booked it with the resident one) just a couple weeks before final payment was due. Obviously the cabin cat we booked was not selling too well.

Been cruising for 22 years on 6 different lines and 2 river cruises.

The next 2 to 4 or 5 years should be very interesting for the cruise industry. Rising fuel costs, bigger ships, weak USD. Have to wait and see what happens.

[dkjretired]

I saw a news article on TV and the mode of transport that is seeing a revival is bus travel. There are new bus lines in the US that pick you up in the middle of major cities and take you to the middle of another city. No bus stations, just stops on the street. One of these was offering downtown service on certain days from NY to DC for $5.00.

 

Also, I believe we will see an increase in train travel. My daughter has opted to take a train to Vermont next month rather than the plane.

[glgolfer]

There's obviously many reasons why we're where we are today, but one of them (IMHO) is the demise of the railroads. I know we still have AMTRAK and we still move products on the rails, but if we had high speed trains between major cities that ran on time and in comfort, more people would use them instead of driving or flying.

[AmoMondo]

We were on a 12 day transatlantic last April in a balcony cabin booked with a resident rate of less than $900PP. Airfare oneway back was over $1000PP. It would be great if one of the main cruise lines started doing roundtrips to Europe B2B.

You could cruise over, spend a week or 2 there and cruise back.

Cunard does this and I think P&O also. I did a 17 night transatlantic and it was so ggod to arrive back in the UK on the correct time zone and avoid all the hassles at airport security and restrictions on baggage and just get straight on the train eo home. i had lunch one day on the cruise with an American couple. the wife detests flying so they came out to Europe on the repositioning trip, were spending some time in the UK before getting on the Queen Victoria at sothhamption to go back to New York.

 

Ships also need fuel, so presumambly their prices would also have to rise?

 

I must admit I think too many people want to get to where they want to quickly so air travel will be here to stay. in addition in the UK and other parts of Eurpope there has been a change in people's habits when travelling oversea. At one time people would only go overseas once per year for usually 2 weeks ( so perhaps using ferries etc would be fine) However now many people have several trips a year and some for only 2 or 3 nights (or sometimes just a day) to other European cities and this just wouldn't be psooblie by land and sea.

 

if anything is putting people off of flying, then its the security and baggeage issues that mean you sometimes spend more time in airport buildings than you actually do travelling. I know that in Scotland, many people going to France, holland, belgiu, or Germany now get the fast overnight ferry from near Edinburgh to the continent now, because it is just more pleasant than flying and you can bring back as much luggage as you like

[glgolfer]

AmoMondo: For a transatlantic last year, we sailed from Miami to Southampton. We had to fly from Tampa to Miami. It takes 45 minutes to an hour to get to Tampa airport from where we live. Arrive 1 to 1/2 hour early for an hour or so flight. Land in Miami, wait 30 to 45 minutes for luggage. Taxi from the airport to the hotel in downtown Miami another 1/2 hour. Altogether about 4 1/2 to 5 hours total.

We can drive to Miami in 5 to 5 1/2 hours with a stop for breakfast on the way and no security hassles.

[ancldaca]

I think the time issue is very important of course. But somewhere in my thick head, I think we'll see a (partial) rebirth of maritime passenger transportation. It won't (can't) be in general, but I think we will see certain routes opening up.

 

In fact, there's already much of that going on: for example, there's that Discovery Cruise line which seems to do brisk business with their Bahamas runs which are technically passenger transportation since guests can opt to get off in the Bahamas. I could see something similar between Florida and Cuba once U.S. travel restrictions end. Here in PR, there's an outfit that runs 2 or 3 times a week from the western side of the island to the Dominican Republic. There are the English Channel, the Baltic Sea, and the Austrialia/Tasmania ones. I'm sure that there must be others but they'd all be more regional in nature.

 

I think the key is that these are mainly overnight affairs and thus can still be considered as an alternative. I suppose 2 days would be the max one could reasonably expect for us '24/7' people to "waste" on transportation from point A to B?