BermudaBound2014

My point was that currently, the greater commonality for Covid hospitalization at University of Michigan is comorbidity, not vaccination. Therefore, those with a comorbidity (regardless of vaccination status) may want to take extra caution. Interesting side note, the data I provided in the link above was updated today and hospitalizations doubled (from 18 to 36). So, yes hospitalizations are on the rise, but I see no need to panic as there are still a grand total of 36 people hospitalized in a major metropolitan area. And, of those 36 people hospitalized, 75% are double vaccinated and boosted. No longer can it be said that those who are vaccinated are less likely to need hospitalization. The better predictor is comorbidity.

Add me to the group that would like to know the percentage. The rational is quite simple. The higher the percentage, the more likely I am to take additional precautions. To suggest cruise lines (all of them) are failing to announce the percentage who have tested positive due to confidentiality is ridiculous. But it does make perfect sense why cruise lines will not release the data. Cruising has taken a beating from Johnny Public in terms of perception as a 'petri dish' and more bad press is, at this point, yet another nail in the coffin. Since the CDC uses data thresholds in their color coding system, it is not out of line to release this information to passengers. Note: the threshold data is very interesting because the CDC has built in TONS of wiggle room before having to declare a ship 'red'. Currently all HAL ships are Orange. Currently the vast majority of ships sailing with passengers are Orange (see link). Yet not one has reached the threshold for red. It is impossible to keep covid off cruise ships. I do agree that anyone who feels that cruise lines are being completely transparent in reporting all the data is naïve. One just needs to read the forums to realize that cruise lines are manipulating the data. This is Strictly business. Anyone with a comorbidity, or anyone highly adverse to a possible quarantine, may want to consider a vacation with lower population density. Cruise ship dashboard link: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html#faq-1

To see up to date information on color coding for the cdc data on covid see the chart located here. BTW: Only a government agency would come up with a color coding system and then fail to color code the data lol. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html NCL is a very small data set. Be sure to look at how things are going across the entire industry. This supports what I've been saying since cruising resumed. There is absolutely nothing cruise lines can do to keep covid off ships. That doesn't mean cruising is unsafe, but it does mean that anyone with a comorbidity (or someone strongly adverse to quarantining) should proceed informed.

@TheJamesGang I just want to say how truly happy I am that you are alive and doing well. That is a horrific story, but it needs to be told. Your story may save someone elses life. Thank you for sharing.

Firstly, I'm sorry to hear about your current medical condition and do wish upon you healing energy. Second, If you look at current hospital stats, of those admitted to University of Michigan for Covid, 86% have a comorbidity and nearly half are double vaxed and boosted. There are currently more patients admitted who are vaccinated than who are not. This trend holds true across the nation. Unfortunately, I can see where your oncologist is coming from because those with comorbidities are occupying hospitals at a greater rate than those who are not vaccinated. Comorbidity seems to be the variable in play. Here is raw data, no politics, just the facts, I'm sure you can triangulate with other hospitals around the country: https://www.uofmhealth.org/coronavirus/covid19-numbers Third: Please take a look at Holland, Celebrity, Princess, and Carnival forums for additional threads about quarantining. Quarantining is ramping up tremendously, but serious illness from those who test positive has yet to be reported. Of those reporting from quarantining, it appears most have mild flu like symptoms. Whether or not you want to risk this is a personal choice. I can understand needing a vacation. Fourth: You may consider join various social media sites also to keep track of covid numbers. There may even be a site specific to the Pearl. If your heart is not set on cruising, I'm sure you know that there are lots of choices in land vacations which offer much lower population densities. A week at a spa retreat sounds lovely to me. Who knows, you may even find something you like better than cruising! Best to you

That is incorrect. Del Rio is speaking of all three; NCL, Oceania, and Regent. Marketing to fill has been NCL's marketing strategy for quite some time. He is very specific about this in the conference call (linked below). There are basically two pricing strategies used. "Price to Fill" (discounting) and "Marketing to fill" which is maintaining pricing integrity thru targeted marketing (not discounting). Del Rio keeps stating that NCL is using "Price to Fill' and will not lower prices for the sake of increasing occupancy. What we do know is that this isn't entirely true since there are excellent last minute prices to be had. I do agree that "Marketing to fill" seems to be the strategy until final payment, but then there is a quick flip to "Price to fill" (ie, discounting to increase occupancy). Since so many people have FCC's, cruise next, and next cruise certs to burn, I can understand why NCL would want prices to remain high. To some degree, the cruise lines have a captive audience in this regard. But what we also know is that NCL's strategy did not work Q1 in terms of getting passengers onboard since RCL load factors were significantly higher. In Q1 RCL load was 68%. NCL load was 54%. In Q2 RCL expects 75-80% while NCL only expects 65%. From Del Rio: “We have stood firm on our go-to-market strategy of marketing to fill and maintaining price integrity by emphasizing value over price,” said Frank Del Rio, president and CEO, on the company’s first quarter earnings call. “You have heard me say time and time again that we will not sacrifice our industry-leading pricing to temporarily bolster our load factors and I continue to stand behind that philosophy. "Our go-to-market strategy of marketing to fill, versus discounting to fill and emphasizing value over price is paying off in droves, with pricing meaningfully higher for all future periods when compared to the comparable pre-pandemic periods." Here is the transcript from the earnings call if interested: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509672-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-nclh-ceo-frank-del-rio-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call

FWIW: You did not draw any wrong conclusions. He responded similar when I posted the sane link last month. It makes no sense at all, but I did get a giggle because I wasn't the only one @Homosassawas confused by 🙂 🙂 🙂

Currently there are more people admitted into University of Michigan Hospital for covid who are vaccinated and boosted than there are who are unvaccinated. The actual predictor of hospitalization from covid is comorbidity. If cruise ships really wanted to keep their ships free from possible serious covid illness, they need tp prevent everyone who has a comorbidity from boarding (and we all know that will never happen because that includes everyone over 65). https://www.uofmhealth.org/coronavirus/covid19-numbers

This is only partially correct. It is a common misunderstanding that a vaccination is required of US citizens. Vaccination is not required for US citizens returning regardless of transport. When returning by air you are only required to show a negative test or document of recovery. When returning to the usa via land or ferry nothing is required (no vaccination/no test... wide open boarder). From the department of homeland security: https://www.dhs.gov/news/2021/10/29/frequently-asked-questions-guidance-travelers-enter-us

You and I both know that positive cash flow is no where near the same as profitability and dipping their toes in positive cash flow still means sinking 1 billion dollars a quarter into more debt. That's billion with a B. Each quarter not annually. Interesting note about occupancy: RCL said they need their ships to sail at 90% occupancy to begin to reach profitability (they could reach profitability at 80% pre-covid). RCL said they expect to be sailing 75-80% next quarter while NCL lags behind at 65%!!! But, I do agree that they likely aren't going anywhere Q2 so I really should have worded that differently. Something along the lines of..... "How much longer can they withstand 65% occupancy?" My last minute pricing comment was in regard to this statement: "We have stood firm on our go-to-market strategy of marketing to fill and maintaining price integrity by emphasizing value over price” because they really aren't standing firm and maintaining price integrity after final payment lol. How is that go-to-marketing strategy working if they only expect 65% occupancy? BTW: Did you listen to the conference call? I thought Franks Del Rio's explanation of how they spin the 'record breaking sales' pitch very interesting. NCL stock is down nearly 50% since resuming cruising. I surmise that none of the big 3 can ever reach 90% occupancy on a consistent basis until vaccine, testing, and quarantining are removed. I still don't see the silver lining.

Morning @At Sea At Peace, This is interesting because NCL is deeply discounting last minute cruises. How the heck can withstand another quarter at 65%? The numbers just don't add up for me. We started a thread in the floataway lounge where we can discuss all cruise line stock (and others) in one place. I'd like to, once again, personally invite you to join us there (pretty please lol). No pressure, but I always appreciate your input. I have some thoughts on MSC/NCL.

I didn't suggest it was popular. Obviously more and more people want to dine with just their party, which is why cruise lines are moving toward 'my time' dining. You wondered why cruises offer the option of dining with others and my response is that some people like that tradition, which was set forth on cruise ships. Since dining with others was never the standard at Disney (that I'm aware of); no tradition was established. Seems very simple to me. Some people want a 'traditional cruise' experience where they dine with others so the cruise lines are keeping this as an option. However the cruise lines have heard what other people want and are offering more choices.

The very simple answer is history. Sharing tables was how it 'was' done exclusively for many many years. Some people like keeping with tradition.

@At Sea At Peace It looks to me like NCL load factors are significantly less than RCL. Note: Thestreet article I quoted of 68% was for rCL (in response to crazy planning mom question). Please do come join us in the floataway lounge you are better at explaining most things than I am :). And by 'most' I mean all 🙂

I'm clearly behind the times. When did they start charging for northstar and ifly?

The whales won't be back in time for this cruise. But I do agree that a snorkeling catamaran is a lovely day and I also like Trilogy directly from Lahaina. I just want you to be aware that Black Rock has the highest rate of drowning death in all of the Hawaiian islands. The current just outside the peak is extremely strong and very deceptive. Don't get me wrong, I still snorkel black rock fairly consistently, but it is one place where EXTRA caution is needed. https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/Destination-may-be-Hawaii-drowning-capital-17020271.php From Lahaina I would plan on at least ten hours, likely more. It's a crank just to get to the start of RTH and then the road itself is a slow (beautiful) crawl. I've driven it many times since January because every one who comes to visit me wants to go here, so I am fairly familiar with this drive. Give yourself LOTS of time and please be off the RTH by dark. It's ok to drive from Kahalui back to Lahaina in the dark, but make sure you are at Paia by sunset. Also, buy the shaka or gypsy app for this drive. I'd still be lost without it. Best $15 you will ever spend. Have fun!!

Anyone listening to the press conference? The spins are terrific! I'll wait for the transcript to be released so I can cut and print the quotes from Frank and company.

This is funny. Yesterday I said that I didn't believe RCL was already averaging 75-80% occupancy and that I was betting occupancy is closer to 65-70%. Based on today's press release looks like the actual number is 68%. They are hoping that next quarter will average 75-80%. We just can't trust what is in print anymore (not just cruise stock). "Load factors improved throughout the first quarter, and we finished the month of March at a load factor of 68%," the CEO said. "We expect our load factors to continue to build, averaging between 75% and 80% in the second quarter, and reaching triple digits by the end of the year." https://www.thestreet.com/investing/how-crowded-will-my-cruise-be-royal-caribbean-answers?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Here's a link to the conference call if interested: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=Iw0nOsxA

Morning! Glad your BP is fine 🙂 🙂 🙂 Big gains at opening bell!! Side note, I do believe you are incorrect when you say "in a move no other line did' regarding Omicron. All of the cruise lines shut down cruise ships for Omicron. NCL did shutter the most, but that is likely because they are so small comparatively. CCL and RCL had extra ships in the caribbean and they used these ships to rotate crew. In other words, they could staff ships with negative covid crew after they spent 5 days on one of the isolation ships. But I do agree that they shut down more ships, but that's because they had fewer options. I started this thread in the floataway lounge which allows for other discussions. We can see if it gets any legs.

As always, thanks @At_Sea ... it looks bad on the surface but I haven't dug in to find out if it's better or worse than I expected. The conference call is at 10 a.m. EST and that is always interesting. I'm going to try to listen in for a bit. I believe both CCL and RCL gave a financial outlook for second quarter. I did a little head tilt with this statement: The company said it could not provide a financial outlook given uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, but it does expect a net loss for the second quarter. The stock has dropped 23.1% year to date through Monday, while the S&P 500 SPX, 1.03% has shed 16.3%. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-stock-gains-despite-wider-than-expected-loss-revenue-miss-2022-05-10?siteid=yhoof2

I'm so cynical because Frank is the best salesman in the lot. :). And we can not have you getting High blood pressure. This will turn around. We are both up from the covid knock down so we need to keep that perspective. But, it is hard to watch some days so you have my empathy. And I hope you know that I want nothing but the best for your portfolio. I didn't load up on shorts for tomorrow. The stock is already just under $16. I don't trust it moving a lot either way. This will be the second release I haven't added shorts. It's just soooo squirrely.

Here you go: This wasn't the article I was referring to, but it is a good summary of the issues: Basically it's all the copy cat excursions that have risen based on Exuma. So that would be for both the land based and cruise based excursions. For sure the one from GSC and Coco Cay has been under attack by animal rights activists (I believe both RCl and NCL share those pigs, but I could be wrong). https://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl-bz-bahamas-swimming-with-pigs-under-fire-20190426-story.html And then there was this incident that made headlines were several pigs died due to tourists feeding them things they shouldn't have. The activity just got too popular too fast and people were willing to cash in on tourists. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/swimming-pigs-bahamas-death There are lots more publications out there, but the first one I linked is probably a good summary for anyone considering this tour.

Let me see if I can find the article. The animal rights people made it sound like the conditions were terrible 😞

Last minute rates appear to be discounted. This is May: This is July