The question of renewal processing times gets asked occasionally, and I have recently participated in some discussions, as I was in the renewal process. So I will share my latest experience.
I had to make the decision of whether to renew with a seven week window between travels, or cruise with a passport due to expire in three months. Travel.gov says expedited can take 5-7 weeks not including mail time, which had me uneasy, and I was not sure which option would be in my favor. Originally I thought I would not risk renewing and not getting it back in time; I would rather cruise with the soon-to-expire passport. I had several people caution me against doing this, so I decided to renew, expedited.
Anyway, On Feb 13, I expedited renewal, and I received my passport today, March 15. Not sure if I would have been turned away with the original soon to expire passport, but definitely relieved that I renewed and have received it.