Tips for a non-frequent air traveller

[Retiringworkingstiff]

For our early December 2013 7 days' cruise, we booked our airline tickets in May 2013, right after we firmed up the cruise booking. Paid roughly $950 for the 2 round trip tickets. (Toronto/Miami).

 

Just out of curiosity, I found out this morning that the same flights now have a much lower price today, about $250 cheaper for the 2 tickets. (Good for quite a few cocktails on the ship no doubt. Not complaining, my own fault really. Would cost about $250 to make the switch so it's not really worth doing anything).

 

I wonder if I should have waited!

 

Anyone out there who are frequent travelers ... all tips for my future reference is much appreciated. (I mean, is it a hit and miss thing?).

[frisbeewife]

The only thing harder to "time" than purchasing airline tickets is purchasing cruise tickets. I have never seen an airfare go down, personally. Generally, the earlier you book your flight the better the price. But as you've seen, that can backfire. My advice would be to get the tickets at a price you're comfortable with and don't check the prices after that. :D

 

A cruise is a different story because you can ask for OBC or maybe an upgrade if the price goes down after you book. It's a shame airlines don't work that way. :rolleyes:

[brazilgirl]

Some websites offer price protection , like Orbitz ( not sure where you bought your tickets).

 

Some airlines , like US Airways , offer a price guarantee . However , due to cahnge fees , it may not be worth it.

 

http://www.usairways.com/en-US/travelplanning/travelagent/gaf.html

[Gardyloo]

The "will prices go down/up" question is probably the most frequently asked one on this board. It's also the most difficult one to answer, because there are so many factors at play.

 

The short answer is that nobody knows, and people who say they know, don't.

 

Like any other business, supply and demand are central to pricing. How many people want to go from X to Y on a given day, and how many seats - on how many airline flights - are available on that day? The airlines spend millions and millions of dollars watching, predicting, adjusting, and comparing supply and demand factors. They know that, for example, leisure travelers want to go to warm places in the winter, or that business travel to certain destinations falls off in certain times of the year, or that holiday weekends are heavy demand periods for coach travel but less so for premium-class travel to business-heavy destinations.

 

This data, gathered meticulously by their computers over years, all goes into a black box called "yield management" (or "revenue management" - whatever) from which prices are set. The computers are thorough - they can watch every seat on every flight on every day, and see how it's going. If their models show that flights to, say, Fort Lauderdale on December 15 aren't as full as they were last year, they're able to manipulate the prices charged for seats on those flights so that they'll fill up. Or, if the flight is fuller than last year, increase prices to increase profits. It's "dynamic pricing" and the airlines have gotten very good at it.

 

While it's ultimately supply and demand, the difference from, say, a department store, is that airline seats have no shelf life. Once the plane closes its doors at the gates, the "residual value" of the empty seats on board goes to zero. So they can't set prices too high and drive people to competitors, but they can't make them super-cheap at the last minute just to fill them. If they did, people would be inclined to wait until the last minute to book, which is NOT what the airlines want. Have you been to the movies and had the box office put tickets on sale for a movie where the previews are already on the screen?

 

On the other hand, the airlines don't have perfect crystal balls, so they can't know with certainty how things that cost them money will be priced a year in advance. What if the price of oil spikes like it did some years ago? If the airlines have sold seats in November for flights next August, and set the prices at a very low point, what happens if their cost of fuel goes up by 50% in April? Seats that broke even for them now are losers. So, the answer is that they don't set prices that low in November, they hedge their bets until the computers can tell them more reliably what their cost and demand numbers are going to be. You often see airfares quite high when they're first released (usually eleven months pre-flight), then they go down as the uncertainties are removed, then they go up as the cheap seats are taken down by consumers. It's sort of a shallow "U" or "V" shaped curve.

 

But even then it's all very hard to predict, unless you're one of the boffins who program the computers in yield management departments of the airlines. (They're all graduates of Hogwarts.) You really can't out-think the YM computers.

 

The best advice (worth every penny you've paid for it) is to find a fare you can live with, and live with it. Don't assume that booking months and months in advance is somehow going to get you the best price; on the contrary it can often backfire, as in the OP's experience on this thread. Don't wait until the last minute either - in addition to the insecurity that brings, the seats will be selling all the while, so the cheap "fare buckets" can and do sell out.

 

Best case, you can take your savings and use it on that booze cruise excursion you've always wanted to take. Worst case, you need to cancel the zipline tour of Florence and walk around instead. Better for you, anyway.

[FlyerTalker]

Some websites offer price protection , like Orbitz (not sure where you bought your tickets).

Be aware that the Orbitz "protection" is a VERY tightly constructed situation. Reading some of the fine print:

If Orbitz finds, after you have booked your flight, that another Orbitz customer subsequently books the same flight(s), meaning the same dates/times of travel, on the same airline, with the same flight numbers, for the same passenger type, itinerary, cabin, and subject to the same fare refundability, or other restrictions, that is at least $5 lower than the airfare you booked on Orbitz.com, Orbitz will issue you a credit for 110% of the difference up to a maximum of a $275 credit per ticket.

Which means they have to fly the EXACT same itinerary as you, and their fare rules need to be the same ("other restrictions").

Orbitz Price Assurance does not apply to lower airfares that are available on other websites

Which means that Orbitz only "protects" you against itself.

Fare decreases resulting from changes to an air carrier's fare filing policies or practices will not be eligible for Orbitz Price Assurance.

More ways to disqualify a lower price.

 

Caveat Emptor

[FlyerTalker]

It's "dynamic pricing" and the airlines have gotten very good at it.

One small addition. There are two elements at work...the "fare", which is the published set of "price" plus "fare rules", and the inventory for each of those "fares". Airlines set multiple price points for their flights, utilizing fare codes and rules that differentiate between the various "fares". Those are relatively fixed (though they can and are modified for major pricing changes or advertised "sales"). What those YM systems do is vary the available inventory in the various fare "buckets".....if demand is strong, then we can cut back on the number of "cheap seats" we will offer, and vice versa. And if we sell out of our allocation of CS, and demand is good, then we don't need to add to the inventory - it stays at zero.

 

This is why you sometimes see that particular flights have lower pricing than others (or the other way around). Higher demand takes away the "cheap seats", while they remain for the less popular. It's not that the "fares" are different, just that there is no inventory to buy.

[EmmasNana]

I would suggest to keep watching to see if the airline makes a change to your flight that is over two hours ( I don't recall if it is a two hour difference or more...someone else will let you know). If this happens you are allowed to cancel your flight with no charge. Just make sure you are still able to get a better price.

I had this happen to me once. I had a flight booked with american and later I found a much cheaper price with Delta. The american flight changed by enough from the original booking so I was able to cancel for no charge. Before I cancelled the american flight I put the Delta flight on hold until I cancelled the american one.

I hope this isn't as confusing as it sounds to me.

[FlyerTalker]

I would suggest to keep watching to see if the airline makes a change to your flight that is over two hours ( I don't recall if it is a two hour difference or more...someone else will let you know).

Every airline has its own rules, so the only definitive answer is to check the specific airline website for details.

[Retiringworkingstiff]

I would suggest to keep watching to see if the airline makes a change to your flight that is over two hours ( I don't recall if it is a two hour difference or more...someone else will let you know). If this happens you are allowed to cancel your flight with no charge. Just make sure you are still able to get a better price.

I had this happen to me once. I had a flight booked with american and later I found a much cheaper price with Delta. The american flight changed by enough from the original booking so I was able to cancel for no charge. Before I cancelled the american flight I put the Delta flight on hold until I cancelled the american one.

I hope this isn't as confusing as it sounds to me.

Thanks everyone for posting many meaningful/educated responses. Like someone mentioned, as long as I was comfortable with the price point when I booked it initially, it doesn't really matter. Total cruise fare and air tickets combined were within my budget. Thanks again.

[Retiringworkingstiff]

Thanks everyone for posting many meaningful/educated responses. Like someone mentioned, as long as I was comfortable with the price point when I booked it initially, it doesn't really matter. Total cruise fare and air tickets combined were within my budget. Thanks again.

oops! My response was meant for everyone who responded, not just one of you. Sorry, I am fairly new to this forum.

[FlyerTalker]

oops! My response was meant for everyone who responded, not just one of you. Sorry, I am fairly new to this forum.

Stick around and keep reading. You'll get a fairly decent "education" which should serve you well, in advance of your next planned flights. I'd tend to wager this is one of the most fact-oriented forums here at CC. And to add....you're quite welcome.

[GeeDunk]

Stick around and keep reading. You'll get a fairly decent "education" which should serve you well, in advance of your next planned flights. I'd tend to wager this is one of the most fact-oriented forums here at CC. And to add....you're quite welcome.

 

Thought that I knew quite a bit about inter-national air travel.

Found out that I did not.

Outstanding info on this forum.

[travelplus]

I found a flight for $474 one way to Sao Paulo from San Francisco for an upcoming cruise via a consolidator. I went on various websites and was quoted $980-$1600. When I saw this fare I booked it knowing it couldn't really go down any further and if it did it would not be very much. Having to pay $970 and then finding it would be $500 then that would be bad.

 

The downside to consolidators is that once you book your locked in so be sure you know your dates and purchase travel insurance. Also most fares do earn miles but be sure to check this out before you book.

[FlyerTalker]

The downside to consolidators is that once you book your locked in so be sure you know your dates and purchase travel insurance. Also most fares do earn miles but be sure to check this out before you book.

Sorry, but there are more downsides than being "locked in" on your dates. Non-refundable is one thing, but you will likely also have non-reroutable and non-endorsable. Plus, you are then a customer of the consolidator first, then the airline.

 

To go and say that conso tickets have only that one drawback is a disservice to our forum readers. Take a gander at the sticky on cruiseline air, which is a form of consolidator ticket. You can get a good education on some of the other pitfalls of a conso ticket.

 

Again, as I have said many times, there are times when a conso ticket may make sense. But anyone who thinks about going that route should know that there is more than just price at work here. Caveat Emptor -- an informed consumer is the best consumer.

 

Remember...the ticket you buy through a consolidator is NOT the same ticket that you would buy from an airline, even if they are on the same flight, same date and same time.

[waterbug123]

I wonder if I should have waited!

 

Anyone out there who are frequent travelers ... all tips for my future reference is much appreciated. (I mean, is it a hit and miss thing?).

 

For the most part yes. If you decide to wait next time, hoping to see the big price drop you saw this time around, it's likely you will see the price go UP rather than down.

 

The only thing harder to "time" than purchasing airline tickets is purchasing cruise tickets. I have never seen an airfare go down, personally.

 

 

It happens, and I've seen it. The challenge is there is no real way to predict if, when or by how much it will do so.

[jsmeeker]

Airfare certainly can go down. The other week, I booked a flight DFW-LAS-DFW, flying out on the Saturday before Thanksgiving and returning the Tuesday before. The price I paid was about $100 less than what the price was just a few weeks earlier.