What is considered "not selling well"

[63galaxie]

I've heard folks make reference to ships not selling well in reference to possible price reductions closer to sailing.

 

We're sailing on Breeze in a few weeks, and in my mind, it seems as though there are many cabins still open.

 

Just curious if anyone knows what Carnival considers a cruise that is not selling well?

[Disconnections]

When a 4 night cruise goes down to as low as $109 per person and a 5 night down to $119-$129, the ship isn't selling too well.

[JasonV1]

Based on what I've seen, it takes a decent number of unfilled cabins to see any sort of significant last minute drop.

 

My guess on this is that when there are just a handful of balconies/suites left, those are more likely to go for loyalty upgrades, freeing up "cheaper" cabins that are easier to (re)sell.

 

Wish I could say what "decent number" means, I doubt anyone could. Some price changes (other than published sales) are determined by cabin inventory figures (including those on hold) and applied automatically, so it is difficult to know exactly when they will occur.

 

If you want to see what types of drops occur search for a website that tracks cruise prices (sorry, can't give the name. Google can find it). You'll be able to look at historical cruise prices and see how they dropped leading up to the sale date. You can't look at cruises that have already sailed, but you can look at those due to sale that same week.

[RuthlessBoss]

When a 4 night cruise goes down to as low as $109 per person and a 5 night down to $119-$129, the ship isn't selling too well.

 

We know that. The question is if anyone knows at what point do they start reducing fares.

[Disconnections]

We know that. The question is if anyone knows at what point do they start reducing fares.

 

That's great that you know that. However, the question from the OP was "Just curious if anyone knows what Carnival considers a cruise that is not selling well?"

 

If a cruise is currently selling at $109 per person, Carnival considers the cruise to not be selling well.

 

As to what point they start reducing fares, chances are, it is an automatic yield management process, similar to that of the airline industry. American Airlines was the first to implement an automatic yield management pricing structure and most companies in the hospitality industry have followed them.

 

It goes by historical data and current occupancy levels, not when someone at Carnival decides "oh, let's lower the price today."

Edited July 2, 2014 by Disconnections

[GatorGirl57]

Something to keep in mind is the people who book guarantee cabins. Their room looks "empty" up until a week or less before sailing. If there are 150 empty rooms, but 100 people who are not yet assigned for guarantee, then there are really only 50 empty rooms. People on cruise critic tend to not do guarantees, but much of the general public does because they are cheaper. They don't realize they could be under the club or whatever.

[pbsteve]

One thing my PVP told me is that people who book guaranteed cabin rates do not block a room from being booked. so for example, if there's 100 cabins that are not specifically chosen, but 99 guaranteed rate customers, all 100 will show as available, even though there's really only 1 cabin left. They'll even let 10 people book, and upgrade the guaranteed cabins to the next level up. So sadly, we never really know how full the cruise is by looking at open cabins.

[pbsteve]

Something to keep in mind is the people who book guarantee cabins. Their room looks "empty" up until a week or less before sailing. If there are 150 empty rooms, but 100 people who are not yet assigned for guarantee, then there are really only 50 empty rooms. People on cruise critic tend to not do guarantees, but much of the general public does because they are cheaper. They don't realize they could be under the club or whatever.

 

REALLY!!!! by one freaking minute... I gotta stop double checking for spelling and punctuation

[Boozebabe]

That's great that you know that. However, the question from the OP was "Just curious if anyone knows what Carnival considers a cruise that is not selling well?"

 

If a cruise is currently selling at $109 per person, Carnival considers the cruise to not be selling well.

 

As to what point they start reducing fares, chances are, it is an automatic yield management process, similar to that of the airline industry. American Airlines was the first to implement an automatic yield management pricing structure and most companies in the hospitality industry have followed them.

 

It goes by historical data and current occupancy levels, not when someone at Carnival decides "oh, let's lower the price today."

 

Carnival probably has a percentage they use. I would think maybe somewhere in the 5% open cabins range for really big cuts. Thats just my guess.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Boozebabe

[GatorGirl57]

REALLY!!!! by one freaking minute... I gotta stop double checking for spelling and punctuation

 

Haha, great minds think alike? lol

[Disconnections]

Carnival probably has a percentage they use. I would think maybe somewhere in the 5% open cabins range for really big cuts. Thats just my guess.

 

They use a percentage, based on historical data. Yield Management is an automatic process based on the ship's occupancy. Each sailing date and length could have a different occupancy level determined for when to gradually lower the price or deeply discount it.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Disconnections

[hockeyluver]

Haha, great minds think alike? lol

 

" fools seldom differ " :p :p

 

 

my dad used to say that all the time!! Great minds think alike , fools seldom difffer.

[Stallion]

yeah but showing 10+ free cabins in every category doesn't do the cruise company any good either because it reduces the fear that that you might get left behind. I'd bet on some of these cruises there are actually more open cabins than a search shows. I don't shop a year out like some of you but do they ever show more than 10 or so cabins available? Surely they never show all 1500 cabins available to purchase-they show you what they want

Edited July 2, 2014 by Stallion

[hattack]

Post #5 answers the OP inquiry IMHO...the cruiselines have developed very sophisticated yield management systems based upon historical data and each ship is assigned a profitabilty target that may mean a ship on a particular week may not have to sail full or drastically reduce it's cabin prices to generate a profit (projected onboard revenue per guest may be above goal)....that's another reason why private full charters are so critical for cruiselines to pursue

 

Cabin prices may vary by day based upon this model...the last thing the cruiselines want is for folks to "lay in the weeds" until 90 days out to wait for the price to drop to book and the model has "triggers" in place to ensure that rarely if ever happens

 

The safe advise is book as far out as you can, at a price you that fits your budget, that offers you the most flexibilty in terms of options and be able to secure the cabin location that you desire, and be happy with your decision...

[Stallion]

Rarely ever happens? I've been cruising in August-September for 20 years and it rarely DOESN'T happen if you are flexible on alternatives

[DaytonCruiser]

Rarely ever happens? I've been cruising in August-September for 20 years and it rarely DOESN'T happen if you are flexible on alternatives

 

I agree if you have flexibility its always best to wait and book last min on off season cruises. There is always a cheap cruises offering rock bottom prices.

Edited July 2, 2014 by DaytonCruiser

[hattack]

As on another thread, cruiselines are working hard on getting yields up...i.e. repositioning of Caribbean sailings during "off seasons" to reduce cabin inventories...they would also be cautious in matching MSC rock bottom pricings when they only have 1 ship in the Caribbean

 

If you cruise in August/September which is peak Hurricane Season, the National Hurricane Center projections in May also may come into play in the yield ,management formula...if they predict a busy storm season it will be factored into the model, which means more last minute deals if you have that type of flexibility...younger married cruisers with families or folks who's job requires bidding vacation 6 months or more out, don't have that option

 

The internet and social media (Facebook etc) are the game changers in terms of selling cabins and for what price...also large group bookings who fail to make their contract obligations will open up space...generally the contracts are structured that past a certain date monies paid are non refundable (another reason to have trip insurance), which means the cruiselines have covered their cost so reselling of those cabins become very lucrative

[WindsorFred]

Post #5 answers the OP inquiry IMHO...the cruiselines have developed very sophisticated yield management systems based upon historical data and each ship is assigned a profitabilty target that may mean a ship on a particular week may not have to sail full or drastically reduce it's cabin prices to generate a profit (projected onboard revenue per guest may be above goal)....that's another reason why private full charters are so critical for cruiselines to pursue

 

Cabin prices may vary by day based upon this model...the last thing the cruiselines want is for folks to "lay in the weeds" until 90 days out to wait for the price to drop to book and the model has "triggers" in place to ensure that rarely if ever happens

 

The safe advise is book as far out as you can, at a price you that fits your budget, that offers you the most flexibilty in terms of options and be able to secure the cabin location that you desire, and be happy with your decision...

 

Agree. We usually book 8-12 months out for the cabin and deck we want, am always satisified with what we pay. Have never seen a price drop yet but still consider it a "best practice" for our circumstances. Always has been a midship balcony on Verandah.

[Carnival_Brides]

I don't shop a year out like some of you but do they ever show more than 10 or so cabins available? Surely they never show all 1500 cabins available to purchase-they show you what they want

 

Carnival will only show ten cabins open at any one time per category. Only TA's and Carnival have access to the full inventory. However, I've had luck calling and having my PVP or whomever search for me (connecting ovs, certain cabin number, certain category, certain deck) with no problem.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Carnival_Brides

[63galaxie]

Thank you for all of your responses. I learned a lot!

[jimbo5544]

We know that. The question is if anyone knows at what point do they start reducing fares.

 

 

According to the new rules by Carnival management that will not happen in the future. I hope that us true.

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app from my IPhone

[63galaxie]

According to the new rules by Carnival management that will not happen in the future. I hope that us true.

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app from my IPhone

 

What new rules? Are you saying that Carnival has decided NOT to lower fares of cabins that have not sold close to sailing? Or just the opposite (they will lower fares)?

Edited July 4, 2014 by 63galaxie

[63galaxie]

According to the new rules by Carnival management that will not happen in the future. I hope that us true.

 

 

Sent using the Cruise Critic forums app from

 

That wouldn't make them competitive with other cruise lines who discount their sailings at the last minute.

Edited July 4, 2014 by 63galaxie

[jimbo5544]

What new rules? Are you saying that Carnival has decided NOT to lower fares of cabins that have not sold close to sailing? Or just the opposite (they will lower fares)?

 

 

Actually my bet is that it will are them more competitive. Trust me, all cruise lines want the same thing, a stable market in the Caribbean.

 

 

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[jimbo5544]

Actually my bet is that it will are them more competitive. Trust me, all cruise lines want the same thing, a stable market in the Caribbean.

 

I was saying that they will not severely discount fares and that they will try their darnedest not to discount fares on sailings further out.

 

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