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Carnival to add 9 new ships


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Here is what John Heald posted on his FB page:

 

"Yesterday Carnival Corp announced that they had signed a deal with two shipyards to build 9 new generation ships for our various brands of AIDA, P & O, Cunard, Holland America, Costa, Seabourn, Princess and of course……………..Carnival Cruise Line."

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Here is what John Heald posted on his FB page:

 

"Yesterday Carnival Corp announced that they had signed a deal with two shipyards to build 9 new generation ships for our various brands of AIDA, P & O, Cunard, Holland America, Costa, Seabourn, Princess and of course……………..Carnival Cruise Line."

 

So they each get one new ship, and the article indicated that Costa was getting two 175,000 ton ships. =9. Looks like Carnival is only getting one out of this order, plus the two already on order. On the surface it looks like a huge order, but in reality, it's not really very aggresive.

Edited by EZ4
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So they each get one new ship, and the article indicated that Costa was getting two 175,000 ton ships. =9. Looks like Carnival is only getting one out of this order, plus the two already on order. On the surface it looks like a huge order, but in reality, it's not really very aggresive.

 

The stock was up $2.70 today on this news. It's actually quite aggressive; the price tag on the Brittania was about $800 million, if I recall, so you're talking about a capital outlay of easy between five and seven billion dollars spread out amongst all the Carnival Corp. brands.

 

The largest builds are going to Costa because they already have established name recognition in China, where the company is expanding most aggressively. I would anticipate that Princess might base a ship there also. Seabourne also has extensive Asian operations. So this will probably mean very little to the US market but an awful lot for stockholders.

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I read that both Europe and Asia will get some of the new ships.

Costa has the Europe portion covered, Princess, Hal, Costa and Cunard could have the Asia. I don't think you will see Carnival sailing to either in a regular basis. The biggest ah hah moment I read into this whole thing is the investment in Costa.

 

One can say that Carnival Cruise Line will never sail Med regularly based in this.

Edited by jimbo5544
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The stock was up $2.70 today on this news. It's actually quite aggressive; the price tag on the Brittania was about $800 million, if I recall, so you're talking about a capital outlay of easy between five and seven billion dollars spread out amongst all the Carnival Corp. brands.

 

The largest builds are going to Costa because they already have established name recognition in China, where the company is expanding most aggressively. I would anticipate that Princess might base a ship there also. Seabourne also has extensive Asian operations. So this will probably mean very little to the US market but an awful lot for stockholders.

 

Taken in context, it really isn't aggressive. This is an average of one ship per line, spread over the next 8-9 years. In comparison, NCL has 4 ships on order for delivery over the next 4 years. RCI had 5, but just took delivery of Quantum. MSC has 4 ships. Viking Ocean has 4 ships. Mein Schiff has 3, and just took delivery of one.

 

Granted, half of Carnival Corps lines have ships currently on order that aren't included in that nine ship order. Aida has 2, Carnival has 2, HAL has 2, Princess has 1 and Seabourn has 2, which is another 9 spread over all of their lines within the next 3-4 years.

 

This new order actually looks like a scale back, while other lines are forging ahead. Hardly aggressive.

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The stock was up $2.70 today on this news. It's actually quite aggressive; the price tag on the Brittania was about $800 million, if I recall, so you're talking about a capital outlay of easy between five and seven billion dollars spread out amongst all the Carnival Corp. brands.

 

The largest builds are going to Costa because they already have established name recognition in China, where the company is expanding most aggressively. I would anticipate that Princess might base a ship there also. Seabourne also has extensive Asian operations. So this will probably mean very little to the US market but an awful lot for stockholders.

 

1st quarter earnings were announced today as well. Up significantly over last year (which as a negative amount). The strongest news from this boards interest perspective is Carnival Cruise Line is dramatically up with a positive outlook.

Edited by jimbo5544
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Taken in context, it really isn't aggressive. This is an average of one ship per line, spread over the next 8-9 years. In comparison, NCL has 4 ships on order for delivery over the next 4 years. RCI had 5, but just took delivery of Quantum. MSC has 4 ships. Viking Ocean has 4 ships. Mein Schiff has 3, and just took delivery of one.

 

Granted, half of Carnival Corps lines have ships currently on order that aren't included in that nine ship order. Aida has 2, Carnival has 2, HAL has 2, Princess has 1 and Seabourn has 2, which is another 9 spread over all of their lines within the next 3-4 years.

 

This new order actually looks like a scale back, while other lines are forging ahead. Hardly aggressive.

 

Carnival (corp) has never been as aggressive as Royal. Look at the debt ratio with all of these new builds. Your comments of comparison are a little one sided. They have way more cruise lines and ship totals (in comparison to Royal, and even NCL with their latest acquisitions.

 

Let's face it, the market is changing, with the new players coming on board, I think the pain will be felt most with Royal.

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Carnival (corp) has never been as aggressive as Royal. Look at the debt ratio with all of these new builds. Your comments of comparison are a little one sided. They have way more cruise lines and ship totals (in comparison to Royal, and even NCL with their latest acquisitions.

 

Let's face it, the market is changing, with the new players coming on board, I think the pain will be felt most with Royal.

 

Maybe, but they all have smart people running them, now, which wasn't always the case in the past. It will be interesting to see what happens when Sir Richard jumps into the deep end of the pool.

 

The other issue that will be interesting to see will be what these cruise lines do with their older tonnage that will be due to be retiring. What are they going to do with all of the dinosaurs? There aren't a lot of start up and boutique cruise lines that are clamoring for the cast offs of the big boys anymore. Costa got lucky when Celebration Cruise Line crashed their only ship and needed to buy another (ex Celebration) ASAP. That won't be happening regularly.

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Maybe, but they all have smart people running them, now, which wasn't always the case in the past. It will be interesting to see what happens when Sir Richard jumps into the deep end of the pool.

 

The other issue that will be interesting to see will be what these cruise lines do with their older tonnage that will be due to be retiring. What are they going to do with all of the dinosaurs? There aren't a lot of start up and boutique cruise lines that are clamoring for the cast offs of the big boys anymore. Costa got lucky when Celebration Cruise Line crashed their only ship and needed to buy another (ex Celebration) ASAP. That won't be happening regularly.

 

If Sir Richard play his cards right, he will "place" his brand exactly where Carnival would be had they not chosen that wrong road in 2007. Price it and brand it right, and simply institute the pre 2007 business model, and they will immediately draw those that crave the old Carnival clientele, without having to have REMEMBER WHEN cruises.

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Maybe, but they all have smart people running them, now, which wasn't always the case in the past. It will be interesting to see what happens when Sir Richard jumps into the deep end of the pool.

 

The other issue that will be interesting to see will be what these cruise lines do with their older tonnage that will be due to be retiring. What are they going to do with all of the dinosaurs? There aren't a lot of start up and boutique cruise lines that are clamoring for the cast offs of the big boys anymore. Costa got lucky when Celebration Cruise Line crashed their only ship and needed to buy another (ex Celebration) ASAP. That won't be happening regularly.

 

There certainly are some decisions coming for the Fantasy class. My guess, and it is all it is, is that they thought they had a plan with Ibercruceros that is not longer an option. This might be part of the reason they are sampling certain markets with Fantasy class ships, i.e. Fascination doing 7 day cruises from San Juan. At the end of the day, they are older ships. I do not see Branson as competition for Carnival at all. The possible one I mentioned against a higher priced Royal (Quantum and newer Oasis class) ships is somewhat of a stretch.

 

I have seen nothing but good moves (including the new President) for Carnival over the last year. Their earnings reflect just that.

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There certainly are some decisions coming for the Fantasy class. My guess, and it is all it is, is that they thought they had a plan with Ibercruceros that is not longer an option. This might be part of the reason they are sampling certain markets with Fantasy class ships, i.e. Fascination doing 7 day cruises from San Juan. At the end of the day, they are older ships.

 

The Fascination was actually sailing out of San Juan 20 years ago, taking over that route from the Tropicale. At the time they were charging $1600 for an outside room. A year later that fate had been already cut in half. At the time, it was calling in Caracas Venezuela South America, as well as Grenada, Guadeloupe, and of corse Aruba.

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