Newest Models Show Irma Getting Very Close To South Florida

[mafig]

If I was a betting man, I'd say this nationwide cool front dropping down today will catch up to Irma and push her towards the NE and back out to Bermuda. I live in Colorado now, but lived in Florida for 24 years. Not that that makes me an expert, but I've seen a few in my day.

 

 

Look again. Still feel the same way?

[RebelAthena]

If I was a betting man, I'd say this nationwide cool front dropping down today will catch up to Irma and push her towards the NE and back out to Bermuda. I live in Colorado now, but lived in Florida for 24 years. Not that that makes me an expert, but I've seen a few in my day.

 

I just laughed out loud at your signature. Only a lawyer would clearly state that he isn't a lawyer :'):'):')

[mafig]

Usually that's the case but the strong high pressure ridge is supposed to keep Irma south. It'll get interesting. We lived in Florida for 3 years and in West Palm Beach where we saw 3 Cat 1 and Cat 2 storms hit us with their eye wall. It was quite the experience. We also drove over to the West coast of Florida and saw the aftermath of what a Cat 4 did to Punta Gorda. We saw solid block walls on some building blown to smithereens. It was unbelievable.

 

 

We live in Punta Gorda and went through Charley. After that, if it's a cat. 3 or more, we're out of here.

Interesting is that Charley stopped outside of Captiva for about an hour and went from a cat. 2 to a 4. While we were being pummeled, the National Weather forecasters were still saying it would hit Sarasota. It was only our local weather guys who broke with the National forecasters who told us to take cover.

 

Our local channel used to have a forecaster (who has since passed away). He always said, find the place where they predict the hurricane will hit five days out and go there....it's the safest place. It'll never hit there.

[Cruise-Crazy]

Wow, they are already cleaning out the water at the grocery store.

[TomAceEsq]

Look again. Still feel the same way?

 

 

 

Not looking good for South Florida and Texas at this point, but yeah I feel the same way so far. These things are so unpredictable more than a few days out. Looking like the opposite is happening though. Irma is gonna outrun the front and it might stay south.

 

I sure hope I'm right for South FL and especially Texas' sake. Last thing the Houston and surrounding areas need is another storm.

[Towel Critter]

 

They didn't substitute another port, so we only got three of our promised four ports on that cruise.

 

Ports are never "promised," merely scheduled. Ports are often missed even outside hurricane season. HMC is an excellent example of this. If the wind is up and the water rough, no go. Ports of call that require tendering are always at risk any time of year.

[PatyCake]

I guess we will be seeing many of the Eastern scheduled cruises here in Cozumel. We are friendly people, come enjoy our island hospitality.

[Towel Critter]

I guess we will be seeing many of the Eastern scheduled cruises here in Cozumel. We are friendly people, come enjoy our island hospitality.

Headed there in three weeks. Cozumel remains one of my favorite stops. It's been a couple of years, so I'm looking forward to it.

[coevan]

I would assume all eastern itineraries will go to the western Caribbean.

[Peachypooh]

Having lived on a barrier island growing up I have seen my share of hurricanes. Here is my point of view. Always have supplies on hand in your home. Water, non-perishable food, propane, flashlights, first aid kits, plastic tarps, duct tape,etc.. I have used all of them.

However in the case of looking ahead a few days and wondering where it is going to go... For the most part until the last minute they really don't know. So be prepared and above all don't speculate and try not to worry.

I was in a hurricane once camped out in our basement when the newscaster on my battery powered radio (we had lost power) said the eye was passing overhead and to brace ourselves for even fiercer winds. NOTHING happened. It all dissipated. We had one tree down and no other damage and were warned we were going to take a direct hit with major damage. Nobody really knows but best to be prepared.

If I was going on a cruise and flying in the day before I might pack a few extra supplies in my suitcase to have in the hotel room in case it loses power.

[diannafl]

We always sail the first or second week of September. As mentioned by others we are also Grandparents who love kids but prefer to sail when kids are in school. We are set to sail out of Ft Lauderdale on Sat Sept 9...I am confident that our Captain will treat us to another fine Carnival vacation. We understand that weather happens...we live in Florida and deal with it annually as well. This is the first time that we have faced the Hurricane threat on a ship but have faced a number of Hurricane threats on the land.

[TomAceEsq]

The front is outrunning Irma. Good luck, Florida. Hopefully Carnival makes a decision quickly on the sailings because it's pretty apparent at this point a south Florida landfall is very likely. Still a chance it could turn north early but there's nothing really coming through the country to steer it that way anymore.

[grest]

thanks...we live in the Tampa Bay area....a bit scary...

[angiegal]

Godspeed to everyone cruising in the next few weeks. We're cruising the week of October 7th, an Eastern Caribbean itinerary of course. Just hope the islands and the people who live there are ok and don't feel the brunt of the storm.

 

We're headed out of Miami on October 5th on a short Key West/Cozumel trip and I'm thinking the same thing. We know there's a risk this time of year, but it was the only thing that worked for everyone's schedule.

[Moonarino]

Ports are never "promised," merely scheduled. Ports are often missed even outside hurricane season. HMC is an excellent example of this. If the wind is up and the water rough, no go. Ports of call that require tendering are always at risk any time of year.

 

Just to say, I used the word "promised" loosely. Although we do pay in advance for each port a ship docks at, as the cruise pays port fees every time it docks. But I'm sure we got reimbursed for the missed port.

 

According to one website (don't remember which one now), it's been over a hundred years since mainland USA was hit with two category 4+ hurricanes in the same season. I can't say if it's true or not, just putting it out there. Maybe somebody else can confirm or nix.

[mouche]

In a very overly simplified (randomly picked) Accuweather model, one of three big arrows shows Myrtle Beach as a near bulls-eye.

 

 

 

Yep.

 

 

 

I could agree, if our first-ever cruise in Sept 2008 hadn't deprived us of one port. Grand Turk was still recovering from a recent hurricane, so we had to bypass. They didn't substitute another port, so we only got three of our promised four ports on that cruise. Not that I cried over it, because I loved the ship we were on. And a "bad day" cruising is even better than a bad day fishing. Lol.

 

But I also got a bit tired of having to worry if our cruise plans would be modified or completely scrapped by late-summer hurricanes, so now we usually sail in October or April-May.

 

Piedmont NC represented here, born and raised Down East. I drove up through SC on I-95 in Dec 1989, a few months after Hugo ravaged through. That whole drive was a bit dismal, as Hugo had flattened so many trees for more than a hundred miles. It was a saddening clue about how much damage Hugo wreaked in populated areas, even that far inland.

 

Also spent nine years in the Cocoa Beach-Melbourne FL area, plus a little time in the Panhandle, as well as San Antonio TX, have friends and relatives in Houston and Beaumont, have sailed from New Orleans, Tampa, etc, etc. The point being, if Irma doesn't hit "us" (present company included) directly, it will hit somebody or some place we know.

 

Mostly I hope the maps of the Outer Banks won't need to be redrawn again (for the 6th or 7th time since 1900) and also that Miami isn't abnormally devastated -- remembering the city of Homestead, just southwest of Miami, which took 10+ years to rebuild after Hurricane Andrew.

 

 

Piedmont NC represented here too:D

[Moonarino]

Piedmont NC represented here too:D

 

Cruisin' Tar Heels Unite! :champagne-toast::beer-toast::cool:

Come hell or high water ;) Lol.

[winddawn]

The absolute latest models as of 0500 on 9/4 blow me away (no pun intended). It shows it tracking closer to the keys and then making a 90* turn directly north and going up the center of Florida all the way to Georgia. I have never heard of a hurricane doing that and if it does, it will cause tremendous damage from the western Miami suburbs all the way to the top of North Florida. Wow....what a model. Now it wouldn't surprise me to see later models showing it getting into the gulf, as the last few model runs have shown more and more significant Westward shifts in their model runs. That straight up the Florida Peninsula is just too far out to be able to call it that close at this time. If it does though, and as a major hurricane, it will definitely be a historical cyclone.

 

That got my attention too. That sharp turn is unusual, but here in Middle Tennessee our weather guys are saying the cold front passing through our state today will be a steering factor for Irma. That cold front is supposed to push Irma straight up through or very close to Florida. Spaghetti models have remained fairly consistent in that front turning Irma, but at this point there is less certainty in the spaghetti models about the track after Florida, but it seems much of the southeast will be impacted.

 

http://spaghettimodels.com/

[Mrs.C05]

We're as ready as we'll ever be. We're boarding up Friday, have plenty of water, flash lights, food, and gas. Need to get cash out though. Just gotta find a "safe" place in the house. 1 bathroom has a small window but we're going to stay off that side of the house because 2 large trees in the backyard could come down, and the 2nd bath has a skylight :eek:, soo.....that leaves a closet which I'll need to clear out or make a fort under the dining table.

[winddawn]

We're as ready as we'll ever be. We're boarding up Friday, have plenty of water, flash lights, food, and gas. Need to get cash out though. Just gotta find a "safe" place in the house. 1 bathroom has a small window but we're going to stay off that side of the house because 2 large trees in the backyard could come down, and the 2nd bath has a skylight :eek:, soo.....that leaves a closet which I'll need to clear out or make a fort under the dining table.

 

Choose the one that puts the most walls between you and the outside. Please keep us posted as to your safety. We are all thinking about you and praying for you.

[casino-queen]

I guess we will be seeing many of the Eastern scheduled cruises here in Cozumel. We are friendly people, come enjoy our island hospitality.

If the Carnival Magic gets diverted there for the Sept. 16th sailing I thank you for the warm welcome. I was there in 2007 and enjoyed your fine island.

 

Sent from my 2PQ93 using Forums mobile app

[Mrs.C05]

Choose the one that puts the most walls between you and the outside. Please keep us posted as to your safety. We are all thinking about you and praying for you.

 

I have cleaned out a closet just in case.....and if I don't use it, hey, I at least got rid of some stuff we don't have anymore or need. Lol! Thank you for the prayers; I'm praying for everyone and their safety who are in Irma's path.

[put me on a ship]

We're as ready as we'll ever be. We're boarding up Friday, have plenty of water, flash lights, food, and gas. Need to get cash out though. Just gotta find a "safe" place in the house. 1 bathroom has a small window but we're going to stay off that side of the house because 2 large trees in the backyard could come down, and the 2nd bath has a skylight :eek:, soo.....that leaves a closet which I'll need to clear out or make a fort under the dining table.

 

We're in Melbourne, and all we have left to do is finish putting up shutters. Got started today, mainly because we have a lot of windows, and quite a few quite large windows. Stay safe!

[riclop]

It's still early.

[easyboy]

Be safe everyone!