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JamieLogical

Think the price will drop?

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2 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:


Sure. I think what wouldn't be a violation.

 

Awesome. Thank you! 🙂

Edited by dcipjr
email removed because, ya know, public BB

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But it could be news for others reading this thread so I think it's important to note.

 

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I track prices on NCL (and other lines) all the time to see if they fit into my travel budget at any given time.

 

As such, a couple of observations.....

 

-NCL tends to drop pricing the closer sail alway gets.  The downside, cabin inventory becomes very limited so you may not get the cabin and/or the location you want

-other cruise lines offer their best pricing the longer the lead time

-bidding is the best way to get the best price on the cabin of your choice with NCL.  The downside, you might lose the bid, so be happy with your original choice of cabin

 

Fortunately, none of this bothers me.  I shop because I like to see what deals are available and am willing to roll the dice.  

 

I've booked less than 2 weeks out (like I just did) and got the best perks and cabin price I had seen for 90 days on the same cruise.

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29 minutes ago, dcipjr said:

 

Awesome. Thank you! 🙂

Thanks Jamie!! I didn't think to check them, our cruising friends use them as well (to actually book though).

Edited by tomservo

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Here is a fun graph for us math nerds for this sailing courtesy of cruiseplum (lowest base fare for each category):

image.thumb.png.a24936b8e636ea980a8ea24c6b07c2e8.png

 

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15 minutes ago, tomservo said:

cruiseplum

 

That looks like a very useful site. The UI is a bit funky, but there's a lot of good data there. 

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21 minutes ago, tomservo said:

Here is a fun graph for us math nerds for this sailing courtesy of cruiseplum (lowest base fare for each category):

image.thumb.png.a24936b8e636ea980a8ea24c6b07c2e8.png

 

 

I wonder what caused the huge spike just before October.

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3 minutes ago, dcipjr said:

 

That looks like a very useful site. The UI is a bit funky, but there's a lot of good data there. 

It's a super awesome site, I use it for all my cruise-related research.

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1 minute ago, RedwingHockeyFan said:

 

I wonder what caused the huge spike just before October.

I was wondering that myself, could have been a glitch in the data feed, who knows...

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51 minutes ago, tomservo said:

Here is a fun graph for us math nerds for this sailing courtesy of cruiseplum (lowest base fare for each category):

image.thumb.png.a24936b8e636ea980a8ea24c6b07c2e8.png

 

What a great site.  Thanks!

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@JamieLogical

Is there a section on the site that lists available inventory for each cabin class, or do you have to check for each cabin category?

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18 minutes ago, tomservo said:

@JamieLogical

Is there a section on the site that lists available inventory for each cabin class, or do you have to check for each cabin category?

 

I check each category.

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I had been keeping an eye on Escape prices and I thought about this thread. It looks like they've pretty much held so far for your sailing, I'm seeing BE's with 2 FAS perks for 949pp. However what really shocked me was the sailing the week before on 3/31 has Inside GTYs starting at 349pp, which is the lowest I've seen on any cabin for this class of ship on NCL since I started tracking prices about 6 months ago. I'm still trying to get a handle on cruise pricing but seeing this makes me never want to book more than a month out ever again.

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Thanks for reminding me that it had been a while since I posted to this thread! Almost a full month and there has been a lot of movement on prices and inventory. Here's the inventory changes since I last posted on February 22:

 

  • Inventory for Inside rooms has declined by 97
  • Inventory for Oceanview rooms has declined by 11
  • Inventory for Balconies has declined by 306
  • Inventory for Mini-suites has declined by 116
  • Inventory for Havens has declined by 13

In total, the inventory has dropped by 543. The ship is now 88% full. 9% of Inside rooms, 11% of Oceanview rooms, 10% of Balcony rooms, 12% of Mini-suites, and 59% of Havens are still available.

 

The fact that there are so many Havens remaining makes me wonder about why they haven't dropped prices on them more significantly. I think the decreases in inventory have been a result of lowered prices across the board in other categories:

 

  • The price for IX has dropped by $50
  • The price for IF has dropped by $50
  • The price for OX has dropped by $30
  • The price for OB has dropped by $150
  • The price for O2 has dropped by $50
  • The price for BF has dropped by $150
  • The price for BE has dropped by $180
  • The price for BD has dropped by $190
  • The price for BC has dropped by $150
  • The price for BB has dropped by $100
  • The price for BA has dropped by $80
  • The price for B9 has dropped by $150
  • The price for B1 has dropped by $150
  • The price for MX has dropped by $30
  • The price for MC has dropped by $80
  • The price for MB has dropped by $240
  • The price for MA has dropped by $150
  • The price for M3 has dropped by $80
  • The price for M2 has dropped by $80
  • The price for M6 has dropped by $80

  • The price for M9 has dropped by $200

  • The price for M1 has dropped by $80

  • The price for H9 has dropped by $600

  • The price for H6 has dropped by $400

  • The price for H5 has dropped by $400

  • The price for H4 has dropped by $800

  • The price for H3 has dropped by $300

Haven pricing in some categories has dropped pretty significantly. The problem is, they were just so woefully overpriced in the first place that even with the big price drops, they are still too much to be likely to sell out prior to sailing in 18 days. I assume most of them are going to end up going to bidders through Upgrade Advantage.

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I was talking to my TA yesterday about NCL pricing in general and he said a couple of interesting things:

 

-once the ship hits 80% full they stop aggressively pricing it to fill it further, and at that point will start offering cabins to employees at employee rates, agents at agent rates, etc

-NCL would rather sail with empty Haven rooms because if they lower the price too drastically they don't want the people who got it for really cheap to go around telling the people who paid "full price" how little they paid

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On 12/7/2018 at 8:48 AM, JamieLogical said:

 

 

The gamble would be possibly giving up some perks and paying a *higher* fare in the end, not skipping the cruise altogether.

I for one am always checking on the price. I always book with the free 50 dollars excursion perk and WIFI so if the price goes down i am willing to give up the perks. I also check the price for possible upgrade, like on my next cruise i went from inside guarantee to a Balcony guarantee because the price of the balcony became cheaper than the inside cabin ....do what is best for you, is your money, your trip.

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