Atlantic-Humberto

[PelicanBill]

Today we have tropical storm Humberto. It is again moved further east so the northern Bahamas are taking an unwelcome dose of wind and rain but impact to the east Florida coast is looking less and less likely. Ports remain at condition x-ray but Indoubt they will go to Yankee and the tropical storm watches were canceled. 

 

But conditions are good for development into a hurricane ans. Path toward Bermuda on Thursday.  

 

[PelicanBill]

Humberto threatening Bermuda as a Cat 2 storm Wednesday night to Thursday. Have heard one Bermuda cruise had notified passengers they are trying to get a new port in the Turks and Caicos or similar.

[Marygracie C.]

On 9/14/2019 at 7:05 AM, PelicanBill said:

Today we have tropical storm Humberto. It is again moved further east so the northern Bahamas are taking an unwelcome dose of wind and rain but impact to the east Florida coast is looking less and less likely. Ports remain at condition x-ray but Indoubt they will go to Yankee and the tropical storm watches were canceled. 

 

But conditions are good for development into a hurricane ans. Path toward Bermuda on Thursday.  

 

Do you think Humberto will still be around Bermuda this coming Saturday/Sunday.

Also leaving New York Friday;rolling seas?

 Thank you for listening.

[beacha]

1 hour ago, Marygracie C. said:

Do you think Humberto will still be around Bermuda this coming Saturday/Sunday.

Also leaving New York Friday;rolling seas?

 Thank you for listening.

I am wondering about this also.

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, Marygracie C. said:

Do you think Humberto will still be around Bermuda this coming Saturday/Sunday.

Also leaving New York Friday;rolling seas?

 Thank you for listening.

 

1 hour ago, beacha said:

I am wondering about this also.

It should be long gone from Bermuda and the seas on the trip from NY should be getting calmer by then

 

[Marygracie C.]

Thank you for positive thoughts.

[njhorseman]

3 minutes ago, Marygracie C. said:

Thank you for positive thoughts.

No thoughts on my part involved...just the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

[Marygracie C.]

Well thank you for the information.Our last cruise to Bermuda went to Canada due to Hurricane?many people came to Boston Terminal all set for Bermuda and were shocked!!We knew because of this site and the posts of kind folks who gave a heads up.

[PelicanBill]

So we know Carnival Sunrise is replanning their sailing today and departure from NYC is TBD.

 

Impact to Bermuda is expected start Wednesday, with closest and strongest winds early Thursday.  Lifting out Friday.

 

Check on this one often. Many model runs are showing an interruption in the path causing sudden turns. This is not in the forecast yet, but it mean sudden changes with short notice are coming.

 

[Marygracie C.]

Thank you.You do know your weather and we are grateful you are willing to share.Thank you.

[PelicanBill]

3 hours ago, Marygracie C. said:

Thank you.You do know your weather and we are grateful you are willing to share.Thank you.

You're welcome!

 

Sunrise is going to Charleston Wednesday and then for one day in Bermuda after Humberto passes (hope they are ready).  The storm needs to move along...

[the2006Junket]

Hi, I have a good friend on the Carnival Pride which left Baltimore for Bermuda on a 7 day sailing, planning to port in Bermuda on 9/18-9/20.   Anyone see if they have changed their itinerary due to Humberto?   Lynne

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, the2006Junket said:

Hi, I have a good friend on the Carnival Pride which left Baltimore for Bermuda on a 7 day sailing, planning to port in Bermuda on 9/18-9/20.   Anyone see if they have changed their itinerary due to Humberto?   Lynne

Per Cruise Critic's news reports today the ship will not call on Bermuda:

"Carnival Pride, which departed Baltimore yesterday (September 15) will spend two days at sea before visiting Grand Turk and Amber Cove instead of spending time in Bermuda. The ship will then spend two more days at sea before returning to Baltimore on September 22."

 

 

[the2006Junket]

Thank you!!!

[PelicanBill]

Thanks for the question and report on Pride!

 

Bad news today as the strength of Humberto is increasing and expected to be Category 3, 115 mph winds, just before arriving near Bermuda.  Later today I will study the path and wind speeds that seem likely to actually reach Bermuda - if the storm center does not pass over Bermuda, we would see something lower than 115mph winds.  How much lower, is the question.  Bermuda has a fairly good infrastructure and buildings.  The biggest danger is storm surge, and outages for electricity and water.  Those could cancel some days of cruise stops if they have such impacts.

 

There is a second storm growing and coming in this general direction, but no official forecast yet. I will study the path models today and post in the other thread.

[PelicanBill]

The graphic below will give you an idea of the difficulty of seeing the impact to Bermuda even though it is only 2 days away. The size of the hurricane force winds is relatively small, but could be growing with the increase in strength.  Forecasters place Bermuda just inside the 90-100% chance to receive tropical storm force winds.  So only a tiny wiggle in 24 hours moves it well away from, or, right onto Bermuda.

 

If it passes slightly north as presently expected:

The first impact from wind and storm surge will be the rugged west coast, where all the good watersports places are located, but there is good elevation along this coast and fewer areas prone to surge. But the island chain gets cut off from low lying bridges being flooded. Then, the impact moves to the north coast, which again, has little elevation lower than 10', so surge impact should be limited. The inner bay of islands and port of Hamilton should be protected by the west islands a bit, although the weaker back side of the storm could drive some water in from the north as it passes.

 

here is a link to an elevation map of Bermuda showing flood prone areas - light blue and dark purple.

http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=BM 

 

[PelicanBill]

They've sped up Humberto in the forecast this afternoon.

Arrival of tropical storm force winds tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.

Hurricane force later in the day and evening and past Bermuda by Thursday morning. 

[beacha]

PelicanBill, thank you for reporting this info. I am sailing to Bermuda on Sunday from Charleston. We are scheduled to arrive Weds am. Can you post info about the next storm that might be approaching Bermuda after Humberto when time gets closer?

I am wondering where we might go if the ship is diverted. Maybe the cruise will be canceled?

[PelicanBill]

Humberto has reached category 3 and approaches Bermuda tomorrow. Hoping it is far enough away to avoid anything more than category 1 winds.

[PelicanBill]

7 hours ago, beacha said:

PelicanBill, thank you for reporting this info. I am sailing to Bermuda on Sunday from Charleston. We are scheduled to arrive Weds am. Can you post info about the next storm that might be approaching Bermuda after Humberto when time gets closer?

I am wondering where we might go if the ship is diverted. Maybe the cruise will be canceled?

Please follow in the other active thread here. But it will get a new thread tomorrow when it gets named. Forecast is too far out to see where it is going after Sunday yet.

[beacha]

7 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Please follow in the other active thread here. But it will get a new thread tomorrow when it gets named. Forecast is too far out to see where it is going after Sunday yet.

Jerry is now the new storm. What is the other active thread to follow here?

[PelicanBill]

29 minutes ago, beacha said:

Jerry is now the new storm. What is the other active thread to follow here?

Yo gotta let me wake up it was only 5am!

[PelicanBill]

Humberto is beginning to impact Bermuda. Looking at the size of the wind fields, it is my opinion that Bermuda will certainly see strong tropical storm winds, and perhaps category 1 winds.  As long as it does not wobble closer, the path suggests the worse cat 1/2 winds will stay offshore.

 

Storm surge will be the main concern.  And beach erosion along the south shore.

 

[PelicanBill]

Humberto has passed Bermuda. Saw some live video late yesterday that was quite scary.

 

any reports of impact and recovery welcome here. Now keep any eye on Jerry ... will be interesting to see if any cruise visits can slip in between storms.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

 

any reports of impact and recovery welcome here

Pretty much what you'd expect. Extensive power outages, trees down, some structural damage some flooding. Buildings in Bermuda are constructed very well so the amount of damage from a storm is generally far less than you'd see almost anywhere else.  Bermuda will recover very well and relatively quickly...it always does.

 

http://www.royalgazette.com/news/article/20190919/our-country-is-resilient

 

http://www.royalgazette.com/news/article/20190918/humberto-live-key-news-on-storm

 

http://bernews.com/2019/09/live-updates-hurricane-humberto/