SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[highplanesdrifters]

1 hour ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Thanks everyone for the great input on Australia I'll be back later.

If you haven't already read it, 'A Sunburned Country' by Bill Bryson is a must.  Highly entertaining and also informative.

[highplanesdrifters]

1 hour ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Bloomberg has been on this story that heavy trading in one day options has been a major catalyst for the recent intraday trading volatility.  One person said the market can get over bought or over sold in a very short period of time and that the VIX doesn't reflect it because the VIX only counts options with 27+ day expiration.  I thought one of the Bloomberg commentators nailed it when he said " Where are the regulators? This sounds like a train wreck in the making" 

 

Thanks everyone for the great input on Australia I'll be back later.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-15/one-day-options-binge-making-market-macro-tea-leaves-unreadable?leadSource=uverify wall

 

 

 

0DTE seems to be quite the hot topic. I couldn't read the Bloomberg article. Here's one from The Street folks might be able to click on.

 

https://smarts.thestreet.com/all-smarts/could-0dte-options-cause-a-black-swan-selloff

 

 

[TLCOhio]

54 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Bloomberg has been on this story that heavy trading in one day options has been a major catalyst for the recent intraday trading volatility.  I thought one of the Bloomberg commentators nailed it when he said " Where are the regulators? This sounds like a train wreck in the making" 

Thanks everyone for the great input on Australia I'll be back later.

 

Agree that so much of this options and short-selling stuff sounds very much like "Las Vegas-style Gambling" and/or highly risky.  Or, worse??  What happened to "investing for the long-run"?  Or, is everything a high-roller bet on a mystery slot machine?  And, if it all blows up, will it require a massive taxpayer "bail-out" to cover the losses and lack of proper over-sight/regulation as resulted in 2008?

 

For Australia, look forward to hearing back more.  Going down there requires some serious research, planning and smart strategies.  The good news?  It's worth it when you do it correctly.  Clearly one size does fit all.  We were very, very pleased as to how our overall mix of air, land, cruise, etc., worked so well for both Australia and New Zealand.  Happy to share more.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 256,026 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1362155-solstice-livefirst-timer-reportspix’s-italycroatian-june-7-19/

[RetiredandTravel]

Thanks again everyone.  Terry this is our first trip to Australia/NZ.  It takes 25 hours to get there and costs 15-16 k for tickets so we want to make the most of the trip.  We max out at 4 locations for land based trips so in this case it depends if we can fill 3-4 full days (4-5nights) with fun & interesting events.  I do think from Silver & Taxatty's comments that we would probably focus on SE Australia and not go to Qualia.  It looks beautiful but 3-4 beach type days probably aren't in order here.  We have to dig into this more but our initial take is that there may not be enough of interest to us to fill that many days.  Here is the SS Eastern Australian Nov '24 cruise, it has seven sea days and doesn't go to Tasmania.  Not Optimal.

 

https://www.silversea.com/destinations/australia-new-zealand-cruise/cairns-to-sydney-sn241118016.html

 

We aren't hardcore "outdoors" people.  We are both very fit but my wife has serious arthritis in her knee, not all the time but when it flares up its a major issue.  Honestly we like do some outdoors type stuff but we aren't seriously into it like some folks.  

 

Terry our initial idea was to spend several days in Australia and then do the Sydney>Auckland cruise like you recommended.  What are your thoughts on how the traditional excursions on a cruise in NZ represent the country?   I may be overthinking this.

 

I haven't looked into Sydney lodging extensively but do like to look of Spicers Potts Point. Thanks for the suggestion. I was actually comparing Spicers Sangoma Retreat in the Blue Mountains with the One & Only.

 

https://spicersretreats.com/retreats/spicers-sangoma-retreat/

 

I have noticed that the Park Hyatt is 2x the price of The Four Seasons & Langham, I guess the location is one of the reasons.   We would probably go with the cheaper choice.

 

HPD I'm looking into if I can use Amex points for Qantas flights looks like each trip is 1k+ for two.  Adds up.  We definitely won't be driving.  I will read that book thanks.

 

 

Thanks again all.

 

 

 

 

[highplanesdrifters]

Will we fill the gap, or will a free fall ensure? Or will we fill the gap and still get a freefall?

 

R&T what a shame Seabourn has so little on their Aussie/NZ itineraries.  In fact they seem to be heavily focused on the Med. Best of luck in your search.  Keep us posted.  I understand what your wife is going through. Have had many an excursion scuttled due to an arthritic knee. Im sure she's getting proper advice from her doctor but I got one of those new fangeled gel/viscosupplemtation shots and it was a game changer. 

[TLCOhio]

18 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Terry this is our first trip to Australia/NZ.  It takes 25 hours to get there and costs 15-16 k for tickets so we want to make the most of the trip.  We max out at 4 locations for land based trips so in this case it depends if we can fill 3-4 full days (4-5nights) with fun & interesting events. Here is the SS Eastern Australian Nov '24 cruise, it has seven sea days and doesn't go to Tasmania.  Not Optimal.

Honestly we like do some outdoors type stuff but we aren't seriously into it like some folks.  What are your thoughts on how the traditional excursions on a cruise in NZ represent the country?   I may be overthinking this.

I have noticed that the Park Hyatt is 2x the price of The Four Seasons & Langham, I guess the location is one of the reasons. 

 

 

Super appreciate these great details and follow-up from R&T.  Trade-offs??  Yes, you have summarized well many of the factors to consider, including the long flights and financial/time costs to reach "down-under" and get back home.  That SS Eastern Australia November '24 cruise has certain stops of strong interest/potential, but certain ports, in my view, are only OK or average.  That gets back to personal priorities and choices.  Which locations are of most interest and value??  How to maximize??

 

Given your wife's knee challenges, I understand fully.  I have had knee challenges (including the lube shots and knee replacement) over recent years, but there are a wide variety of great potentials in New Zealand that do not require super stamina, etc.  You can see so much there without being an athletic super star.  Having done many of the key must-see options in Australia AND New Zealand, I would urge you trying to maximize your "Best of the Best" for each of these two great countries.  If this might be your one and only visits down there, then put together a "package" that blends and offers the most.  It is not how many days down there that counts the most, it is what you do and how you put together the logistics/flow. 

 

For Sydney, we stayed at the Four Seasons.  It's handy and very close to the "action" in several directions.  Worked well for us. The Park Hyatt has a better location, but I doubt it is worth double the price.  For my money, that is how I would compare and evaluate.   

 

Keep it coming with your research and excellent questions.   Happy to share as much as needed and of value.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio 

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 246,097 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1172051-livesilver-cloud-norway-coastfjords-july-1-16-reports/

[RetiredandTravel]

6 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Will we fill the gap, or will a free fall ensure? Or will we fill the gap and still get a freefall?

 

 

 

S&P 500 just down a touch on the week.  Not bad given the poor information flow.  Its Fibonacci Friday (SPX) 38.2 - 4002 , 50 - 4159 & 61.8 - 4315 (close to Aug 22 high).   Commodities had a tough week.  Two year held 4.72 for now.

 

Cheers!!

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise companies during the most recent five trading days.  

 

Interesting and varied movements for these three companies during this one week period.  Not all stocks moving in the same, exact patterns.  Hard to figure out the why for these differences as the markets look at these somewhat comparable companies in the same business.  What's happening and why??

 

On January 3, 2023, RCL was at $48.71.   They peaked at this past Wednesday at $75.75.  That's a 55.5% increase in just seven weeks.  Where will things head in the next month or two?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 100,814 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the stock charts for the major cruise companies during the past five trading days.  Some rocky/jumpy moves this past week, especially for Carnival.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

Since early January, below shows their generally upward movement so far during 2023 for Royal Caribbean.:

[TLCOhio]

From the financial news website connected below, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Hold Conference Call on Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will report fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results on Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time with a conference call and webcast to discuss results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.  The conference call will be webcast via the Company’s Investor Relations website, https://www.nclhltd.com/investors."

 

More and new numbers coming!!  How will this affect the expectations and hopes of Wall Street analysts and investors for future cruise company valuations?

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-hold-213300010.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 70,998 views:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2076101-live-amazon-river-caribbean-many-pix’s-terryohio/

[TLCOhio]

As we try to figure out the future for cruise lines and their economics, it is always interesting to follow the various financial trends affecting the wallets of many consumers.  

 

From NBC-TV News earlier this past week, they had this headline: “These high-income earners are moving back into their childhood bedrooms and putting off vacations as inflation drags on" with this sub-headline: "Many of them say the goal of owning a home is a milestone worth the sacrifice.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “With high inflation and rising interest rates on consumer debt, an increasing percentage of workers considered to be high-income earners now say they live paycheck to paycheck.   According to a recent survey by the banking firm LendingClub, 64% of a representative sample of nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers now say they are just getting by. That's an increase from 61% the previous year.   Among the new cohort of people who say they are newly living paycheck to paycheck, 86% pull in more than $100,000 annually, the survey found.  Economic precariousness is nothing new in America. Since 1976, the percentage of respondents to a Gallup survey who said their finances were worse off than they were a year ago has been over 20%, except for only one year: 1999.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/high-income-earners-get-creative-to-fight-inflation-save-to-buy-a-home-rcna69597

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 53,594 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[TLCOhio]

Where are are stocks, especially the three major cruise line values, headed for the rest of this quarter and later the year??  Up or down?  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday afternoon, they had this top headline: “Dow Industrials Drop More Than 600 Points on Interest-Rate Concerns" with this sub-headline: "JPMorgan strategists warn this quarter could mark U.S. equities’ high for the year.”

 

Here are a few of their reporting highlights: “U.S. stock indexes and government-bond prices dropped Tuesday, dragged down by a disappointing forecast from Home Depot and growing concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.  After rallying sharply to kick off 2023, stocks have stumbled in recent weeks as hot economic data has made investors anxious about the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.  Although inflation has fallen from its recent peak, it remains high.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-02-21-2023-a7067caf

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 50,560 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday, below is their chart for the S&P 500 stocks during the past week.  Rather downward?.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

[TLCOhio]

As of this morning late, all three cruise stocks are down more than 3%.  That is a much deeper slide than what is happening with the overall stock market.  More later today when NY Stock Exchange closes.    

 

From the Reuters newswire this morning, they had this headline: “U.S. travel companies experience high demand but economic worries cloud outlook” with these highlights: “Fears of recession and the impact of inflation on consumer budgets could curb a rebound in travel demand reported by U.S. travel companies in the fourth quarter, although bookings are holding up so far this year, analysts said.  Several big names in the travel and leisure industry, including Airbnb Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings and Royal Caribbean Cruises are reporting faster rates of bookings in 2023 than in 2019 prior to the coronavirus pandemic.  U.S. travel spending in December 2022 totaled $97 billion, 3% above 2019 levels and 7% above 2021 levels, according to the U.S. Travel Association.”

 

Here is more from their story: "The demand contrasts with declining home improvement sales and other discretionary purchases that have hurt furniture stores and retailers like Home Depot."

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-travel-companies-experience-high-145506309.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Various visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 50,359 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[TLCOhio]

From Yahoo News and this stock analyst earlier this week, they had this headline: “Will Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Report Negative Earnings Next Week?” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line  is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2022. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.  The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 28. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.  For Norwegian Cruise Line, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -3.93%.”

 

Coming next week will be more details on the Norwegian finances and for analysis to ask detailed questions of the cruise company's top executives.  

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-nclh-report-150003618.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 49,400 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[Mr Luxury]

Interesting info on NCL.

The last time I sailed with them was on the Norway which was previously the

SS France.

NCL cut it in half and added a section in the middle.

A lovely ship back in the day.

Not sure I would want to sail NCL these days.

[jpalbny]

11 minutes ago, Mr Luxury said:

Interesting info on NCL.

The last time I sailed with them was on the Norway which was previously the

SS France.

NCL cut it in half and added a section in the middle.

A lovely ship back in the day.

Not sure I would want to sail NCL these days.

 

SS Norway was our first cruise ever - in 1992! It was a beautiful ship. The public spaces, the midnight buffets... I'm probably still carrying around some of those (memories). But we haven't sailed NCL in probably 25 years.

[silkismom]

SS Norway was also our first cruise, Dec. 1980--yes, I had to look up the year.

[Mr Luxury]

15 minutes ago, jpalbny said:

 

SS Norway was our first cruise ever - in 1992! It was a beautiful ship. The public spaces, the midnight buffets... I'm probably still carrying around some of those (memories). But we haven't sailed NCL in probably 25 years.

And some of those pounds from the midnight buffet.

[Mr Luxury]

4 minutes ago, silkismom said:

SS Norway was also our first cruise, Dec. 1980--yes, I had to look up the year.

We could start a Norway appreciation society.😁

[TLCOhio]

19 minutes ago, jpalbny said:

SS Norway was our first cruise ever - in 1992! It was a beautiful ship. The public spaces, the midnight buffets... I'm probably still carrying around some of those (memories). But we haven't sailed NCL in probably 25 years.

 

Appreciate these great memories and follow-ups for the SS Norway.  Our first cruise was not until 2006 (with Seabourn) and we have not done the Norway, nor any of those earlier ships.  We have done two cruises with NCL's Oceania brand (2018 Athens to Dubai and early 2020 Auckland to Tahiti).  Worked reasonably well for us, but fortunately these two Oceania R-class ships were not large like some of the other Norwegian parent brand's biggies.   

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon are their charts for the three major cruise companies during this past week.  Overall, it was not a positive week for these stocks.  

 

Why for the big drop, downward slide today?  Any good guesses with the recent more negative trends?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 33,138 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the stock charts for the major cruise companies during the past week.  Some roller-coaster moves?  Big drop today/Friday?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

During the past twelve months, below shows the varied Royal Caribbean movements.  Not all bad, nor completely positive?:

[TLCOhio]

As a possible explanation for why the three major cruise stocks slid downward last week, this below summary might explain and provide the needed background and future financial potential trends.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday, they had this headline: “Stocks Fall Friday to Close Worst Week of 2023" with this sub-headline: "Recent data has undermined the idea the Fed could cut rates later this year.”

 

Here is some of their reporting highlights: “U.S. stocks pulled back Friday, notching their worst weekly performance of the year, as hot economic data have rekindled worries about restrictive Federal Reserve policy.   The S&P 500 fell 42.28 points, or 1.1%, to 3970.04. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 195.46 points, or 1.7%, to 11394.94. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 336.99 points, or 1%, at 32816.92. The three indexes all dropped more than 2% in the holiday-shortened week, each logging their biggest weekly declines of 2023.  The losses are the latest in a turbulent stretch for the market. The major indexes climbed to start 2023, with many investors betting that moderating inflation could lead the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, but the outlook has muddied in recent weeks.”

 

It all gets down to questions as . . . recession or not, deep or shallow, long or shot?  Are those the right questions and doubts affecting the market?  And, potentially affecting consumer confidence that impact future cruise ship bookings?  Right questions?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-02-24-2023-22044596?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 31,790 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[TLCOhio]

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s CEO Jamie Dimon is considered one of the top business and financial leaders.  His bank is the largest private employer in Central Ohio with major parts of their operations based here. Dimon was in Columbus this past week and from our local Columbus Dispatch newspaper this morning, they had these highlights and background for his views on the overall economy: “Last year while in Columbus, Dimon expressed concerned about storm clouds ahead for the economy from higher interest rates, inflation, rising costs for commodities, wage pressures and the Ukraine-Russia war.  'I still say we have a strong economy today,; he said. 'We’re facing some serious stuff in the future. Look, we’re going to be wishful thinkers and hope that it all sorts itself out nicely. I wouldn’t be so sure.' ”

 

The newspaper's interview summary continued: "The war in Ukraine is of particular concern, he said.  'This is one of the most serious geopolitical events in our lifetime, since World War II,' he said. 'There have been other wars, but not that involved major economic nations with each other, a free and democratic nation like Ukraine and also affects the global economy deeply in terms of oil, gas, food, fertilizer, migration.'  Dimon warns that monthly economic numbers on areas such as employment and inflation are giving a distorted view of the state of the economy."

 

Dimon continued to summarize about consumers having lots of money, are spending it now, have jobs, employment opportunities being plentiful and wages going up, plus home prices rising and business being very good.  Dimon, however, is seriously concerned about the economic picture being "eroded by inflation."   This powerful CEO is very worried as to where the economic and consumer confidence will be by later this year.  Is Dimon right or wrong with his analysis?

 

Full story at:

https://www.dispatch.com/story/business/economy/2023/02/26/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-dimon-says-bank-mostly-expanding-even-with-cuts/69935603007/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 21,608 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

[highplanesdrifters]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:42 PM, TLCOhio said:

Why for the big drop, downward slide today?  Any good guesses with the recent more negative trends?

Friday was Hot print, PCE. Which supposedly the FED watches closely. That, and more sellers than buyers.🤣

 

2 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 

 

It all gets down to questions as . . . recession or not, deep or shallow, long or shot?  Are those the right questions and doubts affecting the market?  And, potentially affecting consumer confidence that impact future cruise ship bookings?  Right questions?

Your summary is exacting. That and the FED rate guessing game.

 

The S&P continues to taunt me by dancing on the neckline of this Head & Shoulder pattern. Violated the neckline but closed on it. Either hold or put me out of my misery. 🫣

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

I used to go to Banc One in Columbus from time to time.  If I recall Mitchell's Steakhouse put blue cheese in the olives for their martini's.  Awesome.

 

Fed is just following the data like we are at this point.  The S&P did hold the 200 day MA so at least there was some good news.  February is historically one of the worst months of the year.  Link to Ed Yardeni's work on the topic.

 

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf

 

 

 

 

[highplanesdrifters]

23 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

I used to go to Banc One in Columbus from time to time.  If I recall Mitchell's Steakhouse put blue cheese in the olives for their martini's.  Awesome.

 

Fed is just following the data like we are at this point.  The S&P did hold the 200 day MA so at least there was some good news.  February is historically one of the worst months of the year.  Link to Ed Yardeni's work on the topic.

 

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf

 

 

 

 

Nice batch of charts, thanks. 

But you had me at blue cheese olives. 

[TLCOhio]

22 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

I used to go to Banc One in Columbus from time to time.  If I recall Mitchell's Steakhouse put blue cheese in the olives for their martini's.  Awesome.

Fed is just following the data like we are at this point. 

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf

 

 

Great to hear that R&T has had some Columbus experiences.  Know Mitchell's somewhat well.  Personally, I am not a guy who likes either martini's and/or blue cheese.  Sorry!!  But Mitchell's used to have a very good Mac & Lobster dish that I loved.  

 

Appreciate the financial charts and other market news sharing from highplanesdrifters.  Keep it coming!  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio