How safe will a cruise on a fully vaccinated ship be.

[Windsurfboy]

Obviously safer than a pub but how safe?

 

Assumption  one, crew is quarantined and multiple tests before they get on board , they don't go ashore, and keep well away from land based staff and therefore don't pose a risk.

 

I read that by May 17th  (earliest sail date) the objective is cases drop in UK to 1 in 1000 , down from ONS current estimate of 1 in 150 , this decrease is in line with a drop of 10% to 15% a week

 

Lateral flow tests will catch roughly half of any infected passengers,  so down to 1 in 2000

 

Vaccination reduces transmission by 75% (1 out of 4) , so down to 1 in 8000

 

1 in 8000 chance of catching it , but what about being seriously ill. For over 65s without vaccination, death rate is well above average circa 10%. Vaccination reduces chance of serious illness by 95 % (1 in 20) , but as we have partly taken this into  account via transmission only an extra reduction of 1 in 5 , so death rate is 2% , vaccination reduces chance of catching it , then the deaths to that for younger people.

 

 So chance of a death from covid on Saga Ship is passenger is 2% of 1 in 8000,  that equals 1 in  160,000

 

In comparison Circa 1800 people die in road accidents  a year in UK these odds are 1 in 35,000

 

So being seriously ill and dieing of covid on a Saga ship will be much less than  chance as dieing in a road accident in a year,   we all take that chance in our stride every day

 

Of course  this assuming a cruise to nowhere or to only countries with similiary low infections to UK.

 

All a bit morbid,  but shows how safe cruises can be if done as Saga propose. One of the safest things you could do.

 

So it would be pretty irrational for government not to allow  fully  vaccinated cruises to sail.

Here's hoping by summer  Saga get the OK. 

 

 

 

 

[nosapphire]

All indications are pointing to vaccination dramatically reducing the risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid even if you catch it, and also reducing the risk of transmission, so as the vaccination rolls out, restrictions, including on cruising, should start to ease.

But the description "fully vaccinated" cannot be applied to a cruise unless everybody on board is vaccinated, which is not going to happen by May  or June- so this should not have any weight on the Gov decisions.

A (very rough) calculation based on 800 passengers and 523 crew suggests the percentage of unvaccinated persons on board will be around 40%.

Passengers may be very safe.

Crew may not be.

[Windsurfboy]

But if crew are not allowed off the ship, are quarantined for 14 days tested at least 3 times (pcr),  do not mix with shore staff they can only catch it off passengers. Thus the risk of crew catching it is same as passengers, 1 in 8000. As crew are much younger and presumebly fit  the risk of them being seriously ill is very low same as vaccinated oldies.  Any older UK crew will be vaccinated 

[wowzz]

I think you are over thinking this. 

When cruises are permitted to sail, the risks will be the same as staying in a hotel. 

Only you can determine if you will be happy to cruise, and that will be determined  by your health, and if you have been vaccinated. 

I have a cruise booked (not with Saga) at the end of October.  Unless I am specifically told I cannot go, j will be on board!    

Edited February 28, 2021 by wowzz

[Windsurfboy]

I think the risks on Saga will be much less than a hotel until the whole country is vaccinated , on a without  a vaccination policy ship same as a hotel. Of course by Autumn all  (or hopefully 90%) adults will be vaccinated, for predominantly British passengers.  

 

My worry is that whilst on land we will live with the odd covid case here and there,  the government/media may have a zero covid approach to cruises , a hangover from floating Petri dish description,  and there will be panic at even one case. Never mind what policies and precautions zero Covid is not possible with a 1000+ people on many ships

[nosapphire]

15 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

But if crew are not allowed off the ship, are quarantined for 14 days tested at least 3 times (pcr),  do not mix with shore staff they can only catch it off passengers. Thus the risk of crew catching it is same as passengers, 1 in 8000. As crew are much younger and presumebly fit  the risk of them being seriously ill is very low same as vaccinated oldies.  Any older UK crew will be vaccinated 

I think I prefer the opinion on another section (one of the American lines), where the poster said that on moral grounds they would not cruise until they knew that the crew were protected by vaccination.

Sounds better than imprisoning the crew on board.

And removes the problem of not allowing crew to mix with shore staff, which they have to do when officials come on board and supplies are delivered.

[Windsurfboy]

20 hours ago, nosapphire said:

I think I prefer the opinion on another section (one of the American lines), where the poster said that on moral grounds they would not cruise until they knew that the crew were protected by vaccination.

Sounds better than imprisoning the crew on board.

And removes the problem of not allowing crew to mix with shore staff, which they have to do when officials come on board and supplies are delivered.

 

Will they not  go into shops until all the staff are vaccinated. 

 

I bet the crew given the choice of another 6 months of no work in countries  with no unemployment benefits will jump at the chance of staying on a ship. It might seem on the face of it more moral to avoid ships until crew are vaccinated but they have to feed their families and pay school fees.

 

Given the statistics that the death rates are very  very age dependent , it's been quoted as between a factor of 5 and 10 per decade. 

 

The vaccine reduces death rate by 95%

 

A unvaccinated  40 is over 99.5% less likely to die than an an unvaccinated 70 year. So an un vaccinated 40 year-old  crewmember  is still in much less danger from covid than a vaccinated 70 year old passenger. 

 

Vaccination  doesn't eliminate  risk, it reduces it to that of someone approximately 15 years younger

Edited March 2, 2021 by Windsurfboy