FDR blames Delta Variant for Earnings Miss

[marieps]

Profitability forecast and capacity projections included in article.  Hope the link works for those interested.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6cda340e-49f0-3b8f-a252-885137588af3/norwegian-cruise-line.html

[pinotlover]

We’ll Duh! You can’t sail ships with capacity of 1280 passengers with only 400-500 aboard very long and hit earnings. Actually, you can’t do it long and stay in business! 
 

All those ships with wide open availability in the 1st Qtr 2022 won’t be good for earnings either. I’m hoping my January cruise sails! 🙏

[marieps]

21 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

We’ll Duh! You can’t sail ships with capacity of 1280 passengers with only 400-500 aboard very long and hit earnings. Actually, you can’t do it long and stay in business! 
 

All those ships with wide open availability in the 1st Qtr 2022 won’t be good for earnings either. I’m hoping my January cruise sails! 🙏

Well, those factors were well known to the analysts who set the earnings bar where they did.    I've made my final on Riviera in February well ahead of deadline, hoping to help the cause!  

[PhD-iva]

1 hour ago, marieps said:

Well, those factors were well known to the analysts who set the earnings bar where they did.    I've made my final on Riviera in February well ahead of deadline, hoping to help the cause!  

Bless you!, but prepayments don’t affect earnings while they do help cashflow (also very important!) in the near term.

Companies record revenue (to simplify the explanation) when they have provided the service. So, prepaying for a future cruise does not accelerate the recognition of cruise revenue, and it only shifts the timing of the cash receipts.

This is only the second time my PhD in Accounting has come in handy on this forum. 🤑

[marieps]

44 minutes ago, PhD-iva said:

Bless you!, but prepayments don’t affect earnings while they do help cashflow (also very important!) in the near term.

Companies record revenue (to simplify the explanation) when they have provided the service. So, prepaying for a future cruise does not accelerate the recognition of cruise revenue, and it only shifts the timing of the cash receipts.

This is only the second time my PhD in Accounting has come in handy on this forum. 🤑

Thanks, Doc.   I'm sure FDR can use all the free cashflow he can raise.  BTW I love your handle.

[gbits]

On 11/3/2021 at 12:34 PM, marieps said:

Well, those factors were well known to the analysts who set the earnings bar where they did.    I've made my final on Riviera in February well ahead of deadline, hoping to help the cause!  

Me too!

[pinotlover]

I believe the Analyst believed all the pre start up hype on people wanting to sail again, and under estimated the number of hunkers that have no interest in going anywhere in 21 or even 2022. 
 

Board talk is cheap. The analyst got burned by all the ( past or ex) cruisers not putting their money where there mouth is. Fairly simple actually. 
 

Question now becomes: How do they reforecast 4th Qtr 2021 ( probably too late) and 1srt Qtr 2022?

Edited November 7, 2021 by pinotlover

[Host Jazzbeau]

32 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I believe the Analyst believed all the pre start up hype on people wanting to sail again, and under estimated the number of hunkers that have no interest in going anywhere in 21 or even 2022.

Well, there's you and then there's me:  15-night cruise completed September-October.  10-night cruise starting next week.  14-night cruise in January.  7+10-night b2b in April.  12-night cruise in August.  11-night cruise in October.  [5 different cruise lines, but Oceania is in there.]  No hunkering here!  Supporting the cruise industry and local economies around the world.  The days of living in fear are over...

[pinotlover]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Well, there's you and then there's me:  15-night cruise completed September-October.  10-night cruise starting next week.  14-night cruise in January.  7+10-night b2b in April.  12-night cruise in August.  11-night cruise in October.  [5 different cruise lines, but Oceania is in there.]  No hunkering here!  Supporting the cruise industry and local economies around the world.  The days of living in fear are over...

I sailed in July and sailing again on O in January. We’re obviously not the issue, but our anecdotal travels obviously isn’t representative of the overall early expectations . Numbers aren’t lying.