Southwest cancellations...

[Trueblueky]

On 12/28/2022 at 9:47 PM, CajunOyster said:

 

Depends on what you're counting.  You're right that they're fourth in most categories like fleet size and daily departures.  I think they're still third in passenger count though.  Either way I still think they're TBTF though.

First in passengers carried within the US.

 

If you think they're too big to fail, remember Eastern, TWA, PanAm.

[CajunOyster]

4 hours ago, bguppies said:

I'm sure those of us old enough to remember, thought that exact same thing in the 70's and 80's about Pan-Am and TWA

 

I'm old enough to remember.  I'm also old enough to remember both TWA and Pan Am going through multiple bankruptcies, Carter deregulation, the oil embargo, and unspeakable disasters (TWA 800, Pan Am Lockerbie).  Southwest's current troubles don't hold a candle to what those two went through.

[CajunOyster]

3 hours ago, Trueblueky said:

First in passengers carried within the US.

 

If you think they're too big to fail, remember Eastern, TWA, PanAm.

 

Eastern was a hot mess of financial malfeasance for a decade before it went under.  It also suffered from deregulation and the oil embargo just like TWA and Pan Am.  The  commonality between all of these failures is they all played out over two decades of industry-wide problems.  Comparing them to SWA's current problem is a bit disingenuous.  Apples and oranges.

[jsglow]

Southwest ran a clean day yesterday cancelling 43 flights representing 1%. They have one flight canceled today.

 

They need an 'all hands' approach on this crew software problem. Every airline takes a couple days to recover from the storms that were experienced at Christmas. No problem. Southwest's challenge is not having the necessary computing power and modern tools to make that as seamless as possible. There are numerous stories of aircraft and crew being available at airports but no decent way to marry them up. Gary Kelly was foolish not to heed the October '21 Florida thunderstorm event and Bob Jordan has only been on the job a few months. New management will heed this one at the cost of lots of lost money, customer loyalty, and increased government oversight. Lessons learned the hard way.

 

Southwest needs to hope for stable weather. This problem will probably take a few years to really fix. Modernized software and new systems don't come from Amazon in a box. Candidly, I'd quietly take a step back on my scheduling commitments.  They would benefit from some slack in the system until they can get this all implemented.

Edited December 31, 2022 by jsglow

[RCmommy]

We don’t fly out until the 20th from Detroit to Hobby, but we have a layover in Denver. We live in Ontario and driving is not an option.

 

Fingers are crossed.

[jsglow]

20 minutes ago, RCmommy said:

We don’t fly out until the 20th from Detroit to Hobby, but we have a layover in Denver. We live in Ontario and driving is not an option.

 

Fingers are crossed.

Interesting that you're not routing through MDW.

[DallasGuy75219]

22 minutes ago, RCmommy said:

We don’t fly out until the 20th from Detroit to Hobby, but we have a layover in Denver. We live in Ontario and driving is not an option.

 

Fingers are crossed.

They are back to a small number cancellations, less than 1% of daily flights.  

 

Of course there's always the risk of weather issues in Detroit or Denver in January on any airline.  But after this event you can bet Southwest is going to do everything they can to prevent this from happening again, even if that means cancelling flights right before a storm so they can get crews in position to restart operations immediately after the storm.

[RCmommy]

3 minutes ago, jsglow said:

Interesting that you're not routing through MDW.

Nope.  I originally had us booked on a later flight out and that had a stopover in Nashville.

[RCmommy]

3 minutes ago, DallasGuy75219 said:

They are back to a small number cancellations, less than 1% of daily flights.  

 

Of course there's always the risk of weather issues in Detroit or Denver in January on any airline.  But after this event you can bet Southwest is going to do everything they can to prevent this from happening again, even if that means cancelling flights right before a storm so they can get crews in position to restart operations immediately after the storm.

Weather can always play a role.  
 

I’m optimistic things will be just fine.

[jsglow]

23 minutes ago, DallasGuy75219 said:

They are back to a small number cancellations, less than 1% of daily flights.  

 

Of course there's always the risk of weather issues in Detroit or Denver in January on any airline.  But after this event you can bet Southwest is going to do everything they can to prevent this from happening again, even if that means cancelling flights right before a storm so they can get crews in position to restart operations immediately after the storm.

I think your 100% right Dallas. SWA is going to proactively protect the system rather than 'push through' if a weather event hits.  I've also read stories about the baggage handlers in DEN and the supposed 'doctors note' rule that might have been a factor as well. Wonder how that got ironed out?

[KKB]

We fly Sat OMA to LA.

First had Long Beach via Denver booked...changed to LAX via PHX last week. 

Figured smaller airports more likely to be cancelled plus COULD drive from PHX if need be.

Now things seem to have settled down.

We have friends who live near LGB, and Denver weather looks fine next weekend so changed back...

I'll take the luxury of SWA letting me choose what flight I want for free right now!

[DallasGuy75219]

2 hours ago, jsglow said:

I think your 100% right Dallas. SWA is going to proactively protect the system rather than 'push through' if a weather event hits.  I've also read stories about the baggage handlers in DEN and the supposed 'doctors note' rule that might have been a factor as well. Wonder how that got ironed out?

The "doctor's note" rule was real.  Apparently Southwest has the contractual right to implement a "state of operational emergency" in specifically at DEN.

 

However Southwest is denying the rumor that over 100 rampers walked out over the rule and working conditions.  They're saying the ramp was understaffed because they basically needed twice the regular staffing level to be able to rotate employees on and off ramp in the extreme cold.

 

I'm pretty sure the DOT will investigate the cause(s) of the meltdown (besides the crew scheduling system) at some point but for now the focus is on reuniting people with their luggage and issuing refunds, reimbursements, and probably goodwill vouchers to everyone affected by the meltdown. 

[KKB]

56 minutes ago, DallasGuy75219 said:

 

I'm pretty sure the DOT will investigate the cause(s) of the meltdown (besides the crew scheduling system) at some point but for now the focus is on reuniting people with their luggage and issuing refunds, reimbursements, and probably goodwill vouchers to everyone affected by the meltdown. 

I don't think the causes are terribly surprising:

Holiday crowds

Major storms across much of the country

Higher than usual absenteeism due to flu, COVID, etc. 

Antiquated IT

 

It was the "perfect storm"

 

Now, the one thing that needs to be prioritized once customers squared away (luggage, refunds, etc) is to update the IT ASAP. Unfortunately it isn't something that can be done quickly.

[DallasGuy75219]

3 minutes ago, KKB said:

I don't think the causes are terribly surprising:

Holiday crowds

Major storms across much of the country

Higher than usual absenteeism due to flu, COVID, etc. 

Antiquated IT

I was referring to more specific causes liked whatever happened in DEN.  All the things you cited were acknowledged by Southwest, but exactly what happened in DEN (other than the state of operational emergency requiring a doctor's note for absences) seems to be mostly rumor, conjecture, and/or rabble rousing. 

 

I expect the DOT will dig below the surface, especially because they'll need more than high-level causes if they decide to fine Southwest. 

[KKB]

Just now, DallasGuy75219 said:

I was referring to more specific causes liked whatever happened in DEN.  All the things you cited were acknowledged by Southwest, but exactly what happened in DEN (other than the state of operational emergency requiring a doctor's note for absences) seems to be mostly rumor, conjecture, and/or rabble rousing. 

 

I expect the DOT will dig below the surface, especially because they'll need more than high-level causes if they decide to fine Southwest. 

Exactly.

Oh I fell certain there will be further investigation. 

I was calling for the CEO to step down & when I realized he inherited much of this mess, I was more compassionate. 

The future will tell.

[DallasGuy75219]

10 minutes ago, KKB said:

Exactly.

Oh I fell certain there will be further investigation. 

I was calling for the CEO to step down & when I realized he inherited much of this mess, I was more compassionate. 

The future will tell.

If any head needs to roll, it's probably the CIO's.  From my research she's been in that role since 2017, so she can't say she just inherited this mess.

[KKB]

5 minutes ago, DallasGuy75219 said:

If any head needs to roll, it's probably the CIO's.  From my research she's been in that role since 2017, so she can't say she just inherited this mess.

Can't argue that

[staceyglow]

7 minutes ago, DallasGuy75219 said:

If any head needs to roll, it's probably the CIO's.  From my research she's been in that role since 2017, so she can't say she just inherited this mess.

Not necessarily.  It could be that she has been pushing for the changes and has been shot down.

[icft]

5 minutes ago, staceyglow said:

Not necessarily.  It could be that she has been pushing for the changes and has been shot down.

You could very well be right though only those on the inside will know. But during my working life I saw several instances in which they came after the heads of departments, and sometime everyone in a department, for their failure to do something the head and the whole department had been begging to be allowed to do for years.

 

When the top guy is the guy that stopped them the underlings usually take the full blame. In this case the top guy is relatively new so hopefully he'll make a fair call.

[RCmommy]

If Denver is known to be a difficult zone for them, would we be better switching to a flight with a different layover in another city?  I really don’t want to cruise with only the clothes I am wearing.  Ugh.

 

Things should settle to their “normalcy” by then, yay or nay?

[jsglow]

27 minutes ago, RCmommy said:

If Denver is known to be a difficult zone for them, would we be better switching to a flight with a different layover in another city?  I really don’t want to cruise with only the clothes I am wearing.  Ugh.

 

Things should settle to their “normalcy” by then, yay or nay?

That's really hard to say other than to know that you're more likely to get a snow situation in Denver rather than somewhere else. 

 

Here's the reality. I think it's fairly safe to assume SWA will be running 'fine'.  This was a cascading event with Denver, holiday travel, the big multi city storm, and their inadequate crew matching software all causing the 'meltdown'. IF Denver has a specific problem that day, Customer Service will simply reroute you. Planes simply aren't at 105% the third week of January.

[DallasGuy75219]

1 hour ago, RCmommy said:

If Denver is known to be a difficult zone for them, would we be better switching to a flight with a different layover in another city?  I really don’t want to cruise with only the clothes I am wearing.  Ugh.

 

Things should settle to their “normalcy” by then, yay or nay?

If you can change flights without paying more (which should be the case because the Nashville one-stops are both the cheapest flights at $109), I'd pick Nashville (BNA) over all the other choices for connecting cities (MDW, STL, DEN, and BWI) based on the likelihood of winter weather.

[Oldsweets]

On 12/29/2022 at 12:58 PM, jsglow said:

OP, I was wondering why you didn't simply jump into the family truckster? Were you simply out of time (like flying 'day of')? Was the 'fog of war' such that you, like everyone else, didn't appreciate the severity early enough to shift gears? Are you potentially at an age where a drive that far would be too much?

 

My sincere hope is that lots of folks were able to successfully implement Plan B in time. I genuinely feel for those who could not. As I had indicated elsewhere, our son's Christmas trip to his grandparents turned into a New Year's trip.  As my BIL said, 'audible at the line of scrimmage'.

 

[Oldsweets]

We had plenty of notice to try and book another airline but “every

’ airline was sold out except American who wanted $2200 per person for tickets.  Simply not able or willing to pay that price to fly.  Sadly, we have reached a point in life when a 13 hour drive was simply not as wise as it would have been even 2 years ago.  The easy decision was to take our licks and wait for the next cruise which luckily is mid January.  

[jsglow]

42 minutes ago, Oldsweets said:

We had plenty of notice to try and book another airline but “every

’ airline was sold out except American who wanted $2200 per person for tickets.  Simply not able or willing to pay that price to fly.  Sadly, we have reached a point in life when a 13 hour drive was simply not as wise as it would have been even 2 years ago.  The easy decision was to take our licks and wait for the next cruise which luckily is mid January.  

Thanks for getting back.  I hear ya on the drive situation. In retirement, we've learned to try to zig when others are zagging. Heading off on a Journeys ourselves in a couple weeks during 'slow' January.  Might I suggest any of the 3-4 Journeys cruises scheduled for next December/January.  All avoid the holidays are are during the slow weeks around them.