Got a move up offer but the ship is sold out

[Rick&Jeannie]

2 hours ago, gold1953 said:

there are probably a thousand people getting offers for this sailing

Yes, they are going to maximize their campaign coverage since email costs them nothing. 

[NutsAboutGolf]

You rarely have a sailing where everyone shows up, there's usually a few who have an unexpected emergency, missed flight, flight delay, etc 

[Jeremiah1212]

On 7/28/2024 at 7:57 AM, la_croisiere_s'amuse said:

Another thing to keep in mind is that even one cancelation towards the top of the "food chain" could trigger a domino effect of sorts. If one Royal Suite is cancelled, it could be taken by passengers in a Sky Suite, which would then become available for a Concierge Class, and so on down the line. So it's a smart business move to have passengers ready to move up at every step.

This is the correct answer. They are not anticipating mass cancellations or flight delays. Most people who have a travel hiccup have it occur after bids have been awarded anyway. It’s no harm no foul for Celebrity. Sending the emails is very low cost. Awarding a winning bid is just extra money. They also may award none at all. They also gain data from the bids which shows how much people are willing to pay. 

 

On 7/28/2024 at 11:23 AM, Rick&Jeannie said:

Because it is very common for travel agents to "hold" a block of cabins that are exclusive to booking through them.  The cruise line will not show them as available because they are "taken".  At some point (if the TA does not book them) they will be returned to Celebrity inventory and all of a sudden you see a bunch of cabins that weren't there before.

 

10 hours ago, gold1953 said:

these held cabins are turned in around final payment time

Group space with TA’s and MoveUps really have not bearing on each other at all. In the terms people are describing here, this is not how it works. Travel agents do not hold specific cabins in a group. You hold a certain number of cabins in a category. I’m oversimplifying, but you may hold 5 A2 cabins. You can book any A2 cabin you want up until they hit their 5. After their inventory of 5 is gone, they no longer have a group price for that category. 
 

Inventory is also returned well before final payment, especially if the category is close to selling out. Celebrity will make the TA’s return their unsold inventory early. This would happen prior to 120 to 150 days before the cruise date.

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

Group space with TA’s and MoveUps really have not bearing on each other at all.

Not in any practical sense, no, but helps to explain to the OP why a ship can appear to be "Sold Out" on the public facing cruise line web site when it really isn't, and why even if there were no cancellations, inventory can still move from one bucket to another, with cabins magically available at a later date.  If it's really possible to hit the MoveUp site directly by their portal before the emails start going out at 90 days from sail date, one could be bidding on some of this 'invisible' inventory and never know.  For other reasons plus this, if you can bid and it makes sense economically, you do so.

 

I've always been curious - are the number of cabins of a given class that a TA is permitted to hold in a group always based upon the prior year's or some rolling average of sales (would make excellent sense), or instead, sometimes a matter of knowing the CEO's brother in law, or ? 

[canderson]

24 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

Inventory is also returned well before final payment, especially if the category is close to selling out. Celebrity will make the TA’s return their unsold inventory early. This would happen prior to 120 to 150 days before the cruise date.

It's become more likely than ever to sell out a category, it seems.  That said, how late have you seen inventory left in the hands of TAs for 'under-subscribed' cruises? 

[Jeremiah1212]

14 hours ago, canderson said:

Not in any practical sense, no, but helps to explain to the OP why a ship can appear to be "Sold Out" on the public facing cruise line web site when it really isn't, and why even if there were no cancellations, inventory can still move from one bucket to another, with cabins magically available at a later date.  If it's really possible to hit the MoveUp site directly by their portal before the emails start going out at 90 days from sail date, one could be bidding on some of this 'invisible' inventory and never know.  For other reasons plus this, if you can bid and it makes sense economically, you do so.

 

I've always been curious - are the number of cabins of a given class that a TA is permitted to hold in a group always based upon the prior year's or some rolling average of sales (would make excellent sense), or instead, sometimes a matter of knowing the CEO's brother in law, or ? 

 

Group space doesn't hold specific cabins. You aren't securing cabins 1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, etc. rather you are holding inventory in the group. You can put anyone in any available cabin in the category. If your group has 10 A1 cabins, you can sell any 10 A1 cabins at the group price. You aren't required to book in specific cabins within the A1 category. The timing also doesn't support this. They could briefly lock down a category while they complete inventory reviews but this wouldn't take long. 

 

There are multiple types of groups, but no one "gives" group space. Any TA has the ability to secure it. There is a cost involved to them if they want to hold a significant number of cabins. 

 

13 hours ago, canderson said:

It's become more likely than ever to sell out a category, it seems.  That said, how late have you seen inventory left in the hands of TAs for 'under-subscribed' cruises? 

 

As far out as 8 months is when they would start, but the cutoff is 15+ day cruise are pulled back at 6 months, 9-14 days are pulled back at 5 months and 2-8 days are pulled back at 4 months out from the sail date. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

Group space doesn't hold specific cabins.

 

...

 

There are multiple types of groups, but no one "gives" group space. Any TA has the ability to secure it. There is a cost involved to them if they want to hold a significant number of cabins. 

Yes, that's why I said "cabins of a given class".

 

Would be interested in understanding more about the cost structure if you've got the time to explain.  Worked with a TA many years ago, and it appeared that they were 'buying up' (not in a literal sense, but there was some cost involved) a large number of cabins in a couple of categories for a group of us here on CC that made the same TA every year.  I always thought of it as the agency investing in 'cabin futures', if you will.  A small amount of cost to hold cabins for a bigger payday down the road when sold.

 

1 hour ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

As far out as 8 months is when they would start, but the cutoff is 15+ day cruise are pulled back at 6 months, 9-14 days are pulled back at 5 months and 2-8 days are pulled back at 4 months out from the sail date. 

I had no idea that they pulled inventory back that early.  Is it possible to add pax to a group after the inventory has been pulled back?  Or would all in a group for a 12 night cruise have to have put down a deposit at least 5 months prior to sail date?  Would an agency ever take the financial risk of putting down a deposit to hold group inventory past the 'return' date, betting that the cabin would eventually be picked up by one of their customers?  Loophole?

 

 

 

Edited July 30 by canderson

[horseymike]

Maximizing Revenue of available cabins.

[Jeremiah1212]

5 hours ago, canderson said:

Yes, that's why I said "cabins of a given class".

 

Would be interested in understanding more about the cost structure if you've got the time to explain.  Worked with a TA many years ago, and it appeared that they were 'buying up' (not in a literal sense, but there was some cost involved) a large number of cabins in a couple of categories for a group of us here on CC that made the same TA every year.  I always thought of it as the agency investing in 'cabin futures', if you will.  A small amount of cost to hold cabins for a bigger payday down the road when sold.

 

I had no idea that they pulled inventory back that early.  Is it possible to add pax to a group after the inventory has been pulled back?  Or would all in a group for a 12 night cruise have to have put down a deposit at least 5 months prior to sail date?  Would an agency ever take the financial risk of putting down a deposit to hold group inventory past the 'return' date, betting that the cabin would eventually be picked up by one of their customers?  Loophole?

 

 

 

 

There really are no loopholes in the process. At the pull back date if there is no name on the reservation, it's gone and that slot goes back to Celebrity. They also couldn't put a dummy person in and swap them out with two different people. After inventory is pulled back you can only change one name on the reservation. There are also rules and restrictions on how the deposits are paid. A TA can't pay the deposit themselves unless the booking is for them personally. You can potentially add reservation to a group after the pull back date but there are also other restrictions around that. It's a confusing process to understand from the TA perspective but it's also the key the booking cruises for substantially less than Celebrity's advertised price.