Greek Economy could affect travel plans

[CruiserBruce]

There is no way you can predict what will happen in town when YOUR cruise ship hits the dock ,

 

YIKES!!!!:eek::eek::eek:

[MANURULES]

What is the TA Athensl forum? Thanks

 

Trip Advisor Athens forum.

[TLCOhio]

THANKS for the various added posts and comments. The major breaking news this morning is how Greece has been forced to accept tough, new belt-tighting standards by the IMF. There are pictures out there of added strikes and angry union reactions in Athens, etc. Time will tell how all of this works out for those visiting Greece. Our past experiences in Europe have been that these strikes tend to be hit and miss, short-notice things. I would suggest moving forward, hoping for the best and good luck.

 

The euro is moving up a little this morning and is now above $1.33.

 

From the Wall Street Journal, they have this headline: "Greece Agrees to Austerity Moves" with these highlights: "Greece has agreed with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union to take additional austerity measures expected to yield "around €23 billion" ($30 billion) as a precondition for financial assistance, a Greek official familiar with the talks on aid said. The austerity measures, which will range from pension overhauls to wage cuts, come at the end of two weeks of talks between the Greek government and a visiting "troika" of negotiators from the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. 'There was not much room for us to negotiate,' the Greek official said. 'This is the way the IMF works—if you want the money, you go by their terms.' However, Greek labor unions vowed to fight further cuts in spending and entitlements. Union actions such as strikes and protests aren't expected to derail government overhauls. But political commentators say labor unrest, combined with Greece's slow-moving bureaucracy, might cause roadblocks that delay the implementation of austerity policies."

 

From the Reuters newswire, they have this headline: "Greece needs austerity measures to survive--PM" with these highlights: "Greece needs austerity measures to survive, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on Friday, rejecting calls from unions and opposition parties to resist EU/IMF demands to raise taxes and cut public sector wages. The Socialist government, elected in October on a promise to tax the rich and help the poor, has already announced three sets of austerity measures since revealing last year that the budget deficit had shot up to more than twice previous forecasts. The public sector union ADEDY, which represents half a million workers, called on Friday for a four-hour work stoppage on Tuesday to protest against the belt-tightening, on top of a 24-hour nationwide strike already decided for Wednesday. Opinion polls show a majority of Greeks oppose resorting to the IMF and disagree with the sacrifices."

 

Also from the Wall Street Journal this morning, they have this headline: "Greece Braces for Protests Over New Austerity Measures" with these highlights: "As a bailout deal draws closer, Greeks have begun to see the full impact of the harsh conditions laid down by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. The Greek government is bracing for a wave of protests as details now spell out years of higher taxes and cuts in jobs, wages, welfare and pensions amounting to about 10% of the national economy over the next two years. In an early sign of unrest Thursday night, police fired tear gas to drive away roughly 500 left-wing protesters from the doors of the finance ministry. Another nationwide strike, also sure to feature mass demonstrations, has been set for next Wednesday."

 

From the New York Times, they have this headline: "As Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?" with these highlights: "With new European Union leaders practically invisible and some national leaders acting largely for domestic political reasons, the burden of shaping a rapid and credible restructuring program for Greece has fallen primarily to the International Monetary Fund — exactly where proud European Union leaders had insisted it should not be. Criticism is rising about the competence of European leaders, which has worsened the plight of all the countries in the euro zone."

 

You can get more info from these full articles:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704302304575214050314448316.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63T0UR20100430

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703871904575215872933910344.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/world/europe/30europe.html?hp

 

Terry in Ohio

[Rocket4Oh]

Trip Advisor Athens forum.

Thanks MANURULES for the link. This is a great and topical way to stay up to date with what's happening in the street.

[Fblack]

I have a friend flying to Athens soon. Does anyone know if the taxi drivers participate in the strikes and protests? I told her to hire a private car service.

[TLCOhio]

I told her to hire a private car service.

 

Good, smart suggestion on the private car service. The public-sector and larger company unions will be the ones more likely to be involved in the strike actions. Hope folks get lucky there. I just checked with one major cruise line operating in Greece with full cruises in May and they say it's business as usual. BUT, they are monitoring things daily with their local service suppliers and are ready to make adjustments in schedules, as and if needed. Clearly, passenger safety is the top priority in seeking to avoid any serious problem areas. Many of the strikes are more for publicity attention than physically harming people or visitors.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

[MANURULES]

There are no guaranties.

AS long as we all understand that ,I can give you the "norm" there.

.

The short answer is no, it is very rare for the taxis to strike on the same day as public transport.

I do not honestly remember when that happened there last,but i am certain it has happened.

To help you understand how things work there "usually" let me provide some additional info.

 

Strikes,work action of all kinds,demonstrations and police presence in the center of Athens is a very common occurrence there.

I have never heard of a tourist being targeted .NEVER.

It is difficult to explain this fact to someone not familiar with life there.

Almost every demonstration there involves a clash with the police,not by the main demonstrating body ,

but almost always by a tiny part of young extremists and anti authority young punks.

This is a fact,not an opinion.

You can have a peaceful demonstration of 100000 people and the police will end up chasing 100-200 kids

or young adults around the streets of the Polytechnic school of Athens (The area is called Exarhia).

NEVER ,NEVER has anything happened close to the main sites with the exception of Syndagma square where the Parliament building is located.

This is normal for Athenians,and has been happening there since forever.

What will end up disrupting your cruise is a work action by port workers at the cruise port which is also rare.

The action at the port this week was initiated by a new measure ( lifting the cabotage on foreign owned cruise ships)

that targeted the cruise port workers directly.At least this is how they saw it.

Trust me it will pass.

Taxis rarely strike, and when they do, a good portion does not honor the strike anyway.

Mass transit is a different story.When they go they all go.

It needs to be mentioned that mass transit work action is very often a"work stoppage " that lasts a few hours once or twice on a certain day.

All actions are usually announced ahead of time,about a week notice is often provided.

It used to be that the ATC at the airport would strike from 6-8 am and 5-7 pm and always midweek.

Strikes and demonstrations this time around have been scarcely attended.

The crowds have been relatively small.

This is due ( in my opinion ) due to the fact that the socialist party government is in charge.

It is my opinion that if the last right wing party government was still in charge,Athens would be practically burning.

 

 

 

Having said all that for now ,let me tell you how this will play.

Some of you will go there and come away thinking ,what all the fuss was all about,some might experience few

and mild disruptions,and a few unfortunate souls will be saying very bad things for a very long time.Hopefully very few of you.

Does that mean you should change plans?Heck no!

What's the worst thing that can happen?

The Euro will keep falling?Let it.

Strike wont let you get off the boat in Athens?

What do you do when the heavy seas cancel the cruise visit to, lets say Grand Cayman?

Stay on the boat and eat, drink and get a tan to boot?

Visit a different port instead ? Let it come baby!

My advice is not to agonize as much,and just let life come to you and enjoy.

It will all work out in the end,and hopefully with out disruptions.

Relax, its your vacation!

[TLCOhio]

My advice is not to agonize as much,and just let life come to you and enjoy. It will all work out in the end,and hopefully with out disruptions. Relax, its your vacation!

 

THANKS for the background and insights! It will all work out, but I would hate to miss a key stop in Athens will all of its great treasures. Agree with you that much of this is for "show" and domestic political theatre in Greece. BUT, many less experienced travelers do not like as much or any uncertainty in their travel plans. They find it harder to adjust to these type of things. It will work out, but it causes worries for many. Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

[MarkBearSF]

There are no guaranties.

AS long as we all understand that ,I can give you the "norm" there.

...

My advice is not to agonize as much,and just let life come to you and enjoy.

It will all work out in the end,and hopefully with out disruptions.

Relax, its your vacation!

 

Well said, Manu.

I AM a bit curious to what we'll see in July. We made our hotel reservations many months ago. Over the past weeks, I've realized that if there are any mass demonstrations, it's likely we'll have a front-row seat from our hotel on Syntagma Square.

[numbersix]

Manu:

 

Thanks for a very measured, pragmatic overview of the realities of the current situation. I agree--very often reality is often not what we get here on the news.

 

Kevin

[pennsylvaniamimi]

Thank you for the comforting information. We fly over in a week and am looking forward to peace and tranquility for our first time visit.

[TLCOhio]

Thank you for the comforting information. We fly over in a week and am looking forward to peace and tranquility for our first time visit.

 

Are you doing the Crystal Serenity, Athens to Venice, May 18-25, with Santorini/Thíra, Bodrum/Turkey, Corfu/Greece, Dubrovnik/Croatia? Looks like a great cruise and the Crystal people are real pro's at dealing with any of the "special situations", making proper adjustments, etc.

 

From the New York Times this afternoon, they have this headline: "Greece Is Said to Be Close to Deal on a Rescue Plan" with these highlights: "As negotiators tried to wrap up the details of a letter of intent with the fund, the Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, began warning of new spending cuts and tax increases to keep the country afloat. A crucial feature of the latest plan is a measure that would free the Greek government to lay off public sector workers, according to one Greek government official, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the discussions. The low levels of productivity and high wages of Greece’s large public sector have been a primary contributor to the country’s debt problem."

 

Good luck with your cruise and Greece. Great people and country. It will all work out. THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

[pennsylvaniamimi]

We are on the Louis Cristal On May 14 after some time on a bus exploring the Peloponese ( Meteora, Olympia, Thermopoli Etc.) and some time in Athens. Hopefully our Company, Central Holidys is up to the challenge here.

[TLCOhio]

We are on the Louis Cristal On May 14 after some time on a bus exploring the Peloponese ( Meteora, Olympia, Thermopoli Etc.) and some time in Athens. Hopefully our Company, Central Holidys is up to the challenge here.

 

Sorry, I mixed up Louis Cristal versus Crystal Serenity. Have you talked with Central Holidays and how on top of things do they seem? Are they U.S. or Europe based? Do you have travel insurance? Hopefully it will work out, but I would be as best "prepared" as possible for adjustments, etc., as needed. The Greek unions will be protesting up a storm over the financial deals being done right now.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

[TLCOhio]

Here are the latest, breaking news stories on the situation in Greece. Things will continue to be "tense" between now and Wednesday when the major national strike is scheduled.

 

From the London Times with pictures this morning, they have as their lead story this headline: "Riot police clash with Greek protesters over cuts" with these highlights: "Tear gas has been fired at demonstrators in Greece protesting against the government’s planned austerity cuts to save their failing economy. Thousands of left-wing and union demonstrators have descended on Athens for a march to oppose the wage cuts, tax rises and pension reductions being proposed. Riot police deployed tear gas into the crowds after protesters hurled rocks at the Finance Ministry this morning. There were similar scenes in the northern city of Thessaloniki as youths attacked business premises, smashing store fronts and ATMs."

 

From the Reuters newswire, they have this headline: "Greece sees rescue deal on Saturday, thousands protest" with these highlights: "Police fired teargas at a group of about 20 protesters who were trying to reach parliament, a Reuters witness said. Greece's public sector union has also called a 4-hour strike for Tuesday, on top of a nationwide strike set for Wednesday, highlighting the challenge the government faces in pushing through the cuts it has promised potential lenders."

 

From the highly-respected Financial Times, they have this headline: "Escalation of Greek debt crisis sparks volatility" with these highlights: "A dramatic escalation of the Greek sovereign debt crisis triggered huge volatility in financial markets this week, even as corporate earnings and economic releases offered fresh evidence that the global recovery was on track."

 

You can read the full details at:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7113822.ece

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE64000E20100501

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96bb45bc-54b7-11df-8bef-00144feab49a.html

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

[Fblack]

Here's a short and interesting video news story dated May 1, 2010. More protests.

 

[TLCOhio]

Coming in the Sunday New York Times will be this rather interesting story on the tax collection, etc., problems that exist in Greece. There are more details on how they pay and accept "cash on the side" and bribes are needed to get things done by government officials, etc.

 

This story will have this headline: "Greek Wealth Is Everywhere, Just Not on Tax Form" with these highlights: "In the wealthy, northern suburbs of this city, where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools. So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools."

 

The story continues with these details: "That kind of wholesale lying about assets, and other eye-popping cases that are surfacing in the news media here, point to the staggering breadth of tax dodging that has long been a way of life here. Such evasion has played a significant role in Greece’s debt crisis, and as the country struggles to get its financial house in order, it is going after tax cheats as never before. Various studies, including one by the Federation of Greek Industries last year, have estimated that the government may be losing as much as $30 billion a year to tax evasion — a figure that would have gone a long way to solving its debt problem"

 

You can read the full story at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/world/europe/02evasion.html?hp

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

[TLCOhio]

Here are the latest stories about events in Greece and how they might impact those planning and worrying about upcoming trips there. The strikes are coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. These three stories give more background on what is happening and why the next week will be key for how these "adjustments" are accepted by the Greek people and others in Europe.

 

As of 11:17 am EDT, the euro had dropped to $1.315.

 

From the Associated Press newswire, they have this headline: "Greeks and the state: an uncomfortable couple" with these highlights from this interesting and insightful analysis: "Greece, a historical patchwork of Balkan, Mediterranean, and even Middle Eastern influences that failed to follow the European rule book. Scratch the veneer of slick highways and gleaming euro coins, and there's also a broad culture of cutting corners that helped push it into financial crisis. Go to the root, and you find this: Greeks, though fiercely patriotic, have a problem with being told what to do by the government. That could have profound consequences for the course of the crisis: Greeks often strike when told to tighten their belts. Its ancestors are superstars of the ancient world. Herodotus, Thucydides, Aristotle and Sophocles are a few. But Greeks think to more recent times, the centuries under Ottoman rule that ended in independence in 1829, long after other European countries were refining democratic institutions. It was a time, they say, when Greeks became allergic to state authority. Some historians agree to a trend."

 

This AP articles makes these added key points to understand "why" in Greece now: "In modern Greece, patronage and extended families have rivaled the state for authority at the local level, and personalities dominated charisma-driven politics in the last century. Greece is not alone, though. Mediterranean culture tends to be easygoing; Italians have a reputation for brazenly ignoring rules they consider too trivial to obey. Greece's Harvard-educated prime minister, George Papandreou, whose father and grandfather held the same job, wants to undo the habits of the past, and present. Yet he has tailored rhetoric to his compatriots' taste for defiance, asking Parliament to support reforms that he said will deliver a "genuine revolution" in Greek history."

 

From the German Der Spiegel magazine, they have this headline: "Huge National Debts Could Push Euro Zone into Bankruptcy" with these highlights: "Greece is only the beginning. The world's leading economies have long lived beyond their means, and the financial crisis caused government debt to swell dramatically. Now the bill is coming due, but not all countries will be able to pay it." Much of this analysis is about the Chief IMF negotiator with Greece as the article details: "He has negotiated aid packages with Iceland, Ukraine and Romania in the past, and when he and his 20-member delegation landed in Athens on April 18, they had come to impose a rigorous austerity program on the Greeks, not to devise long-term growth programs. Thomsen's mandate is to save the euro zone. And any Greek resistance is futile. If the emergency surgery isn't successful, there will be much more at stake than the fate of the euro. Indeed, Europe could begin to erode politically as a result. The historic project of a united continent, promoted by an entire generation of politicians, could suffer irreparable damage, and European integration would suffer a serious setback -- perhaps even permanently. European governments agree that saving Greece is imperative. They are worried about the euro, and the Germans are concerned about their banks, which, lured by the prospect of high returns, have become saturated with government bonds from Greece and other southern European countries." This is a very in-depth, detailed look at the whole situation that, if not solved, could destroy the euro and their current economic structure.

 

From Reuters newswire, they have this headline: "Greek union extends strike, to 'intensify' struggle" with these highlights: "Greece's main public sector union extended plans for nationwide strikes in response to a government austerity package that cuts wages and pensions. The ADEDY union, which represents about half a million public sector employees, said it would stage a 48-hour walkout starting on Tuesday, instead of the one-day strike it had previously planned for Wednesday. Greece has a history of violent protests and the government's ability to implement its draconian programme depends heavily on how the public reacts to the new steps. Greek President Karolos Papoulias warned Papandreou on Monday that his government would have trouble winning over the population unless pain for average workers was accompanied by a crackdown on corruption, which is estimated to have cost the economy $1 billion last year. Several hundred rubbish collectors marched through central Athens on Monday behind a dozen garbage trucks, holding banners reading "hands off our salaries" and chanting 'parliament is where the rubbish is.' "

 

You can read the full articles at:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9FF7K681.htm

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,692666,00.html

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE64222U20100503

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

[Fblack]

In case you want to know what are the planned cuts that they are all protesting over, read this story. Here's a few examples.

 

Public sector pay freeze extended until 2014.

 

Christmas, Easter and summer holiday bonuses in the public sector, also known as 13th and 14th salaries, are abolished for those earning above 3,000 euros (about $48,000+/- a year US) a month and will be capped at 1,000 euros for those earning less

 

Public sector allowances ( I think it was about 500 euros a year) to be cut by an additional 8 percent. These allowances, which account for a significant part of civil servants' overall income, were already cut by 12 percent under the latest round of austerity measures announced in March.

 

The main VAT rate is increased by 2 percentage points to 23 percent

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6411WS20100502

[Hlitner]

I hope many carefully read FBlacks prior post. VAT tax is going from 21 to 23% . Vat tax is even worse then a national sales tax because it is applied to every step of manufacture and sales so it compounds. This is the same kind of tax favored by many in our current government. Imagine adding over 40% to the price of a new car (this is the real impact of a European style VAT taxi). Greece has dug itself in a hole so deep that it will never fully recover and the country will suffer for many many years. The USA is heading in this same direction...since this is what happens when government keeps spending money they do not have. We notice that FBlack is in CA, which means he will have an even larger burden because his state is already bankrupt.

 

Hank

[patseacruiser]

Anybody trying to get to Athens today? My friend was at the airport at 9 am for a noon flight out of BWI to JFK to Athens. It's 6:45 and she just got to JFK less than an hour ago. No idea where her luggage may be since the flight it should have been on was never connected to. She is pretty much resigned to the fact that she will be on Voyages to Antiquity with what she is wearing and what she has in her carry on.

[loerie]

We agree whole heartedly with you!!! Lived in belgium for a few years VAT is a killer !!!!

[TLCOhio]

Anybody trying to get to Athens today? My friend was at the airport at 9 am for a noon flight out of BWI to JFK to Athens. It's 6:45 and she just got to JFK less than an hour ago. No idea where her luggage may be since the flight it should have been on was never connected to. She is pretty much resigned to the fact that she will be on Voyages to Antiquity with what she is wearing and what she has in her carry on.

 

Keep us posted on how things progress for her on her "Greek Adventure".

 

YES, that VAT is double-bad. Costs lots and is hidden. At least with a sales tax, you know it's there and can know its cost.

 

From the Business Week/Bloomberg News, they will have this headline tomorrow: "Greek Government Workers to Escalate Protests Over Budget Cuts" with these highlights: "Greek government workers plan to shut down hospitals and schools today and disrupt flights as protests escalate after 30 billion euros ($39.5 billion) of additional wage cuts and tax increases were unveiled this week. Tomorrow’s general strike could disrupt public transport, air traffic, ferry sailings and other services as workers from shopkeepers to sportswriters walk off the job. Employees at Public Power Corp SA, the state-controlled electricity company, also will strike. An air-traffic controllers’ strike will mean all flights at the Athens International Airport, the country’s biggest, will be cancelled. Greek carrier Aegean Airlines SA, which cancelled 17 flights for today, won’t operate any flights tomorrow."

 

The full article is at:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-03/greek-government-workers-to-escalate-protests-over-budget-cuts.html

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

[TLCOhio]

The big bail-out, that has not been fully approved, yet, might not be enough money to solve the finance problems facing Greece.

 

From the Tuesday Wall Street Journal, they will have this headline: "Greece's Costs Seen Exceeding EU-IMF Help" with these highlights: "The €110 billion ($147 billion) three-year Greek bailout by euro-zone countries and the International Monetary Fund won't be enough to cover Greece's costs, an examination of Greek financial figures shows, setting Europe up for more tough choices if private markets don't start lending again. The bailout announced here over the weekend will solve one pressing problem: Greece will have enough cash to repay an €8.5 billion bond that comes due in two weeks. But the bailout package is based on assumptions that by the end of 2011 Greece will be able to borrow again from capital markets. That may be optimistic, say some bond-market specialists. Greece's big test over coming months will be putting in place massive budget cuts and tax increases announced Sunday that are the price of the bailout. If they are able to do so, and bring the budget deficit down swiftly, 'that would give investors a lot more confidence' about lending, says analysis Yelvington. Still, 'they were supposed to make these cuts 10 years ago.' "

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703612804575222331434882588.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLEThirdNews

 

Terry in Ohio

[TLCOhio]

Hopefully, current travelers didn't put down a cash, advance payment/deposit on private tours in Athens or the Greek Isles. Cruise lines will need to be able to adjust schedules and adapt for what's available and where as these strikes impact local services and port stops. It's also good to check on what travel insurance you have and what it will cover or not. Read the policy details and ask questions.

 

Here is the latest within the hour from the AP newswire on the strikes starting today in Athens. This Associated Press story has this headline: "Greek protesters drape banners on Acropolis" with these highlights: "Angry Greeks took to the streets Tuesday and unfurled banners at the ancient Acropolis, the country's most famous monument, to protest harsh new austerity measures as strikes began across the country. About 4,000 teachers and students marched to Parliament to protest the cuts, carrying black flags and holding banners reading: 'Send the bill to those responsible.' Scuffles broke out as they approached the Parliament building, with demonstrators throwing stones at riot police, who responded with small bursts of pepper spray to keep the crowd back. Wednesday's strike is expected to shut down services across the country. Public transport will halt in the morning and evening, government offices will remain closed throughout the day and state hospitals will function with emergency staff."

 

From the Irish Times, they have this headline: "Euro hits one-year low against dollar" with these highlights: "The euro hovered close to a one-year low against the dollar today on concerns about Greek debt problems and fears of possible contagion to other vulnerable euro zone countries. The euro's weakness helped propel the US dollar to a near one-year high on a trade weighted basis."

 

The full stories are at:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iXUJvBknZVGqsBenIusBgBvWj5WQD9FG0LQ00

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0504/breaking37.html

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio