Help us understand why the prices are spiking on this P&O Cruise

[NewYorkOrBust]

Hi,

 

I hope you can help us understand what is happening with the prices on this cruise:-

 

http://www.pocruises.com/j614/?search=true&leadmeta=i

 

Me and my good lady both in our late 30s who have only cruised twice before on Fred Olsen had our hearts set last summer on a P & O 12 port 24 night cruise to New york, Boston, Quebec etc due to depart September the 11th this year.

 

We booked our days off work and tried to start saving ages ago in autumn 2015 but we had just moved into our first house and what with bills and an expensive christmas we had nothing saved and thought look this just isnt going to happen this year and promply decided to forget about it being an option in early January. Come late April time I cursorily looked on the P&O website to find the cruise had dropped to £2499 saving us a combined £800 and there was still 12 inside cabins available. I figured that if we both put £500 away from May to September we'd be able to pay in early september just before it sailed (we'd left the same dates in play with both our employers).

 

The wifey thought this was a crazy idea as the remaining cabins would probably slowly sell if we left it as late as 2 weeks before it sailed to pay but we knew we needed to save for a holiday if not this so started putting the money away and then saw it drop two more times down to £2199 with £325 onboard spend. Also none of the inside cabins have gone either since May. We were so elated as the months ticked by as the prices dropped a bit then stayed at £2199 for 2 months and the cabins remained available.

So we budgeted assuming it was going to come in at £2199 or maybe less. But Since the last book by offer on 1st of August past the price has gone up to £2299 for a day then next day £2399 and now its at £2599.

 

Everything I've read says that the price shouldnt be going up at this stage so what gives? Is this a fluke caused by Brexit? or something else? Do you think it will go down again? We could only just afford it when it stayed at £2199 and we are both a bit fed up now as we really canot affod it now at this price.

 

Best Regards

 

Gareth

[BrianI]

It's all down to supply and demand. A lot of people, like you, waiting for a last minute bargain and then rushing in to buy pushing the price up.

 

Brian

[mrs and mrs]

Maybe liken it to the sharemarket.

That's the big thing about cruising,so many factors are involved.

If you can afford it and are comfortable with the price book it.

And if all the stars align,(work.money.family.etc etc)its a good thing.:)

[NauticalMiss]

The locations that you will be visiting are always popular during that period, known as 'leaf-peeping season'. It is on many people's bucket list to go leaf-peeping in the Fall with the vibrant colours of the leaves, etc etc, so demand is high. It is often expensive to fly to the East Coast at this time; we try to avoid it. Basically it's the usual market forces of supply and demand, I guess.

[mandylennon]

Yes, we have found this to be exactly as you state on the previous cruises we have been on.

 

Prices drop around 3 months before departure and then back to what they were originally and then about 1-2 months before departure they jump up higher and stay high right until departure - if there are any cabins left. I think they know people book last minute and will pay if they really want to go on that particular cruise.

[NewYorkOrBust]

Thanks for all the quick responses but I've been monitoring this one for about 4 months and they haven't shifted a single inside cabin since April even when it was £2199 for 2 or 3 months. I kept going through the booking system again and again to see what cabins it gave me.

 

Do people other than the retired have the ability at the drop of a hat to have 24 days off? And most retirees arent spur of the moment people. I'm new to late minute cruise booking but do working couples really book a cruise like a spur of the moment flight or train booking? Isn't this a well planned in advance kind of a thing for most people? I could understand if it was for a 1 week cruise but for 3 and a half weeks?

 

But I really need to come to a decision on this as I have to have a Plan B holiday in place and cannot keep waiting to see if it drops.

[daiB]

This is a traditionally a popular cruise and rarely has any cheap deals. It is the only cruise which does this itinerary. The only time there were deals was when they put 2 ships on about a fortnight apart. It is one of those cruises that you should book when the price is good for you.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums mobile app

[bee-ess]

Although our next P&O cruise is a Select booking we are typically late saver bookers and have lost out on lots of deals by waiting, once a Norway cruise we were waiting for went up £50 per day for 3 days running. We have found that once they start going up they don't very often come back down as they go up normally because the cabin grade you are looking at is selling. We now buy whenever we see a price that we are happy with and try not to look again. It's a bit like dealing in shares or buying foreign currency, it's very difficult to deal at THE optimum price.

Also, as said earlier that is a popular cruise.

Edited August 5, 2016 by bee-ess

[BrianI]

Prices seem a bit crazy at times. For example I have just been looking at R620 20 Nov.

Select Price for a deluxe balcony £1899 with £80pp on board credit, free shuttles etc.

 

Early saver price £1999 with no extra benefits.

 

So is the early saver a bargain the name implies?

 

Brian

[NewYorkOrBust]

Yes BrianI prices do seem crazy at times. These are all the price movements I've seen for mine since autumn last year looking only at inside cabins grades:-

 

£2899 Starting Price

£2499 Could have had minor drops but wasnt looking until this one

£2399

£2199 Up to August 1st

£2299 After August 1st

£2399

£2599 Latest Price

 

I know they havent shifted any of the Inside cabins in 3 months!! They clearly sold the majority of the cabins early that had portholes now all thats left is the inside center cabins so bee-ess the cabins are not selling. The majority did sell and then whats left has been non movers for quiet some time.

 

I've been checking every other day! I accept this is a popular cruise due to being able to visit america with no flights and its a popular time of year but still I don't get if the cabins arent selling they'd up the price?

 

Is this maybe just protocol this is what they usually do and usually works for them on most ocassions so they'd do it on this one too?

 

But if come the last week they still have them to sell would they offer me it back at £2199 if I asked?

 

I always thought If the price dropped of a grade of cabin they'd drop for all the pevious people who paid a higher price they'd refund them back? Is that not the case then?

 

Regards

 

Gareth

[BrianI]

 

I always thought If the price dropped of a grade of cabin they'd drop for all the pevious people who paid a higher price they'd refund them back? Is that not the case then?

 

Regards

 

Gareth

No it's not the case with P&O. I know some American cruise lines give a price guarantee.

Incidentally, how do you find out which cabins have sold, or not sold, in the last three months?

Brian

[aurora2009]

Hi Gareth. P&O will have sold cabins to Early Saver and now Saver bookings since April. Cabins are still showing as 'available' because P&O have not allocated cabin numbers to these bookings. They keep them showing as a Select booker may have a preferred cabin and be willing to pay for choosing the location. I 'watch' cruises. When the price is the lowest I feel it will drop for the cabin grade I am looking at I book. Early saver can be the best option as only 15% deposit and you can book a cabin grade (thus avoiding metal fronted balconies/shower only) and you can make changes if needed. I booked our Early Saver mini-suite 26 weeks prior to sailing. The price is now £300 each more with 3 months to sailing.

[bee-ess]

 

I know they havent shifted any of the Inside cabins in 3 months!! They clearly sold the majority of the cabins early that had portholes now all thats left is the inside center cabins so bee-ess the cabins are not selling. The majority did sell and then whats left has been non movers for quiet some time.

 

 

 

Regards

 

Gareth

 

Yes, but those cabins you see are not available for saver fares, saver cabins will be allocated later. The cabins you see are available for Select fares. Also if the other grade cabins are selling they will probably put the insides up as well as the cruise is popular. They have algorithms built into the software to change the prices when thresholds are reached.

[FAB1]

I have just received notification today of a new onboard credit offer "Celebrating 180 years of P&O history".

 

Maybe the prices have increased to cover the extra onboard spend. I have just spoken to P&O and the website isnt fully updated yet. Maybe your cruise now has extra onboard spend that would cover your increased cost.

[NewYorkOrBust]

Hi BrianI,

 

To see what Cabins are available I've been going half way through the booking process everyday and I know there are 8 inside cabins on C Deck and 4 inside cabins on E and B decks. And the same 12 cabins numbers have been comming up all the time. I have to go in using Select Price rather than Saver but it shows me what's there and it hasn't changed in 3 months.

 

aurora2009 I don't care about Cabin really we'll only be sleeping in it. Quiet happy to be in steerage.

 

So based on the info I'm telling you which i know to be correct and your guys expereince of how things usually work have i got a hope in hell of getting on this boat at around the same price? As i truly cannot afford it at now £800 more combined.

 

Do they negotiate when cabins still empty a week before it sails? Can anyone throw me a bone here. After talking this up to the Wifey she''s kind of had her heart set on it but we needed to save and needed one more month to afford it.

 

Best Regards

 

Gareth

[Ray66]

Have you tried clicking on the Deals button at the top of this page? ^^^ There are some online travel agents there giving various prices for your cruise. (I think you'll have to phone them though rather than being able to book online).

 

I can't mention them by name but I got the following prices for inside cabins:

 

£2,329

£2,349

£2,399

£2,470

Edited August 5, 2016 by Ray66

[Scriv]

Hi Gareth -

 

As has already been said, I don't think you can take it that those cabins are not selling because you can see them listed on the website. The algorithms move in mysterious ways I'm afraid and as bee-ess says, those cabins are available for Select fares not for where they will slot in their Saver fares at the appropiate times. It is my understanding that they now oversell particular popular categories and then move people up and sell that category again, especially in a very popular cruise. They now offer Select Fares close to sailing as well to get maximum chance of selling at full price before reducing.

 

Another thing to note is that sometimes you can search for a cabin and it says not available or does not exist. Well of course it does and I later booked it - but it did not appear on the website. What appears on the website is not any indication of what is really still available or how full a cruise is I'm afraid and this one is very unlikely to be having problems esp as the price is rising. If they were having problems, the prices would be very low surely??

 

Sorry you missed out on a good price, but that is unfortunately today's world of fluid pricing and the only way is to buy when the price is reasonable to you at the time. It is too risky to speculate if it matters to you.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Scriv

[daiB]

My reading of the situation is this. They have 10 cabins left. They could have 8 people who have paid the saver fare but not allocated a cabin number. They are still offering 10 cabins for select passengers so those passengers still have a choice. At a given point 2/3 weeks out they allocate those cabins.

 

So I am afraid that you may have read the situation incorrectly it only looks a as if there were these cabins available when in fact the majority are sold but not allocated.

 

 

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[the english lady]

This is one of my would love to do cruises. However as it is a one off cruise they are always much more popular than the same to in and out destination.

I think Aurora does spring and Arcadia does Autumn.

I think what you may need to do is keep on saving and start looking at going in 2017. Not much joy to you now I know, but you will get there. You will then have more money saved and maybe could go for an outside cabin.

Also with out the pressure of this year...follow the prices when they come out and when it is at a price you would be happy paying then book it.

I feel select fare with obs usually works out the same as saver without obs..there or thereabouts.

You could try a couple of TA's to see what they could offer. We cannot give names on here..but where eskimos live is one.

[Teddy123]

I'm sorry this isn't a very helpful reponse, but I'm on a crusade to save the English language! If the prices have really "spiked", they have gone up and then down again so you don't have a problem. A rise without a fall is not a spike, no matter how much the media misuse the word.

[NewYorkOrBust]

Hi,

 

Thanks again for all your advice.

 

I know that an algorithm may be at play as regards pricing but I really don't think its at play with total cabin numbers after all I can trust the website when it says the higher grades are "SOLD OUT" I see no reason I should untrust the website when it appears to give me a choice of cabins and cabin numbers and asks me which one to book.

 

So I don't quiet believe that there is some hidden fluid number of cabins on the Select Price I am being offered to choose real cabins that are still available which surely will fold into saver cabins if unsold. Thanks for the steer I have looked at the travel agents and see that there is a 300 saving still to be had via them.

 

So I still have some hope that we might get onboard.

 

Thanks everyone.

[Scriv]

I'm sorry this isn't a very helpful reponse, but I'm on a crusade to save the English language! If the prices have really "spiked", they have gone up and then down again so you don't have a problem. A rise without a fall is not a spike, no matter how much the media misuse the word.

 

Thanks for doing your best to keep us on an even keel (without spikes) Teddy :)

[Scriv]

NewYorkorBust : What it does though is gives you the cabins it has chosen to make available to you for booking on the website... Out of interest, have you ever phoned them up and asked exactly what is still available because I have often booked cabins not shown as available - or even existing - on the website?

Edited August 5, 2016 by Scriv

[the english lady]

, if you do manage to get on this cruise do come back and let us know.

I am also not sure how close to sailing they still sell cabins. For security reasons I don't think it's as close as it used to be.

Also when costing this cruise please factor in the onboard gratuities, for the staff. It is £5 per person per day. As you will hopefully find out they do work very hard for it.

You can have them removed but it would be a great shame to.

[Scriv]

Updating you, t e l, auto grats are now £5.50 per day ;)