Newest Models Show Irma Getting Very Close To South Florida

[sonicbuffalo]

The newest models suggest at least a close brush with So Fl, before possibly heading up towards Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC and coming inland. That would put us right here near Burlington in the bulls-eye. That is, if the models GFS hold true and Irma stays out of Florida. I would say if Irma hits and comes ashore in Florida, it will probably be between West Palm Beach and more likely closer to Port St Lucy. What do I know? I've only been studying Hurricanes for 20 years.

[LUVMYGSDOG]

Since I'm sitting on my porch at Myrtle Beach right now I'm watching her very closely as well. Nasty Irma.

 

Kim

 

 

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[Purvis1231]

It is still to early to make exact prediction but in any case this storm is going to be dangerous. God's speed to anyone in its path.

[deborahjo]

Carnival is moving the Glory to a Western cruise. So all travel safe and have fun.

 

 

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[coevan]

St.Martin and the Virgins islands are bracing. The sailing message boards are on fire.

[Loonbeam]

The models are firming up for that track, but its still too far out to get a firm potential impact point for the US (if no recurve). A few models still even have it hitting the gulf. It will be wed or thurs before there is any clarity.

 

The Dominican's et al are almost certain to get hit - at the very least a glancing blow however. Almost every model agrees on that and there's no system in that area to cause a diversion right now.

[Cruisegirl6]

As a Floridian for 32 years, its too early to tell.

[jewliana]

The newest models suggest at least a close brush with So Fl, before possibly heading up towards Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC and coming inland. That would put us right here near Burlington in the bulls-eye. That is, if the models GFS hold true and Irma stays out of Florida. I would say if Irma hits and comes ashore in Florida, it will probably be between West Palm Beach and more likely closer to Port St Lucy. What do I know? I've only been studying Hurricanes for 20 years.

 

I live in Port St Lucie, I sure hope you are wrong! We did get all our supplies and check lists in order yesterday though.

[AdGuyMG]

The newest models suggest at least a close brush with So Fl, before possibly heading up towards Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC and coming inland.

 

 

What do I know? I've only been studying Hurricanes for 20 years.

 

So have NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. Longer actually. ... and no specific or accurate predictions or warnings have been issued for the areas of the US that you mention.

[Cruise-Crazy]

Still way too early for any accuracy in the models.

 

Not sayin' it won't happen that way....

[haybella1316]

The newest models suggest at least a close brush with So Fl, before possibly heading up towards Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC and coming inland. That would put us right here near Burlington in the bulls-eye. That is, if the models GFS hold true and Irma stays out of Florida. I would say if Irma hits and comes ashore in Florida, it will probably be between West Palm Beach and more likely closer to Port St Lucy. What do I know? I've only been studying Hurricanes for 20 years.

 

 

 

Stop it

 

 

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[LouisianaCruiser4200]

Stop it

 

 

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Exactly. No way in hell you can predict with such accuracy this far out

[sonicbuffalo]

The absolute latest models as of 0500 on 9/4 blow me away (no pun intended). It shows it tracking closer to the keys and then making a 90* turn directly north and going up the center of Florida all the way to Georgia. I have never heard of a hurricane doing that and if it does, it will cause tremendous damage from the western Miami suburbs all the way to the top of North Florida. Wow....what a model. Now it wouldn't surprise me to see later models showing it getting into the gulf, as the last few model runs have shown more and more significant Westward shifts in their model runs. That straight up the Florida Peninsula is just too far out to be able to call it that close at this time. If it does though, and as a major hurricane, it will definitely be a historical cyclone.

Edited September 4, 2017 by sonicbuffalo

[grandmarnnurse]

I've been following this closely myself in regards to hurricane's effects on cruise schedules. I am amazed at all the people that risk their cruise being cancelled or deverted by booking at this time of year. I will gladly pay a bit more and sail during "high season" . I usually only sail January or February and we sometimes get rain and wind storms, but never a hurricane. I'm sure people book during hurricane season for a variety of reasons, work schedule and cost probably being a main factor. I just hope you all have trip insurance. Even in the winter months, I would never sail without it, because you just never know---**** happens. Good luck to you all, and I hope you make your cruise!

 

 

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[grandmarnnurse]

The only exception to the above, is the crazy weather in the Northeast when people try to sail out of NYC in the winter. A case in point is now the infamous Anthem cruise in a blizzard.

 

 

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[sonicbuffalo]

The only exception to the above, is the crazy weather in the Northeast when people try to sail out of NYC in the winter. A case in point is now the infamous Anthem cruise in a blizzard.

 

 

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yes...I guess if you're going to compare what time of year to sail, I'd pick hurricane season over blizzard season. I'd much rather have warm water if I'm going overboard. lol

:cool:

[cruzn buckeye]

I've been following this closely myself in regards to hurricane's effects on cruise schedules. I am amazed at all the people that risk their cruise being cancelled or deverted by booking at this time of year. I will gladly pay a bit more and sail during "high season" . I usually only sail January or February and we sometimes get rain and wind storms, but never a hurricane. I'm sure people book during hurricane season for a variety of reasons, work schedule and cost probably being a main factor. I just hope you all have trip insurance. Even in the winter months, I would never sail without it, because you just never know---**** happens. Good luck to you all, and I hope you make your cruise!

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Of 28 cruises sailed, and one coming up in 10 days, I think 23 of them have been in the Sept/Oct. timeframe... mostly September. Why? Several reasons, cost is definetly one reason, i can pay about half the price, and use that money for expenses, tours, airfare... etc etc. Then, less kids onboard. i love kids. I have 5 grandchildren, 2 adults, a 4 year old, a 3 year old, and a 2 year old. So anyone who wants to post negative responses (not you) don't bother. Also, the weather is still hot, and the seas are warm like bath water in some places.

 

September is my favorite time of the year to cruise.

That being said, only 3 have been rerouted, and none cancelled. We were on one cruise where we were scheduled to go east, and went west. Only to have more storms pop up. 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm at the same time.... We did have to come through tropical storm "Georges" (I think) while passing Cuba on the way home... it was quite the ride.

I haven't lost any money or vacation time with these cruises.

 

 

So now, we are leaving on the 14th, Bahamas, not sure where we may be headed as they may be facing catastrophic damages... my prayers are with those on the islands and anyone else this monster may affect...

 

Hopefully, we will be on a ship and the Captain will find somewhere for us to go... I know he will keep us safe.. no worries there..

[cruzn buckeye]

yes...I guess if you're going to compare what time of year to sail, I'd pick hurricane season over blizzard season. I'd much rather have warm water if I'm going overboard. lol

:cool:

I agree, i live in OHIO, and that is why I don't cruise during the winter months. I have done two February cruises. When we had to wait to get the plane de-iced... that scared the crap out of me...:eek:

[lucky13elec]

Irma needs to move north. Sailing out of Tampa to Cuba in 3 days.

[TomAceEsq]

If I was a betting man, I'd say this nationwide cool front dropping down today will catch up to Irma and push her towards the NE and back out to Bermuda. I live in Colorado now, but lived in Florida for 24 years. Not that that makes me an expert, but I've seen a few in my day.

[sonicbuffalo]

Godspeed to everyone cruising in the next few weeks. We're cruising the week of October 7th, an Eastern Caribbean itinerary of course. Just hope the islands and the people who live there are ok and don't feel the brunt of the storm.

[sonicbuffalo]

If I was a betting man, I'd say this nationwide cool front dropping down today will catch up to Irma and push her towards the NE and back out to Bermuda. I live in Colorado now, but lived in Florida for 24 years. Not that that makes me an expert, but I've seen a few in my day.

 

Usually that's the case but the strong high pressure ridge is supposed to keep Irma south. It'll get interesting. We lived in Florida for 3 years and in West Palm Beach where we saw 3 Cat 1 and Cat 2 storms hit us with their eye wall. It was quite the experience. We also drove over to the West coast of Florida and saw the aftermath of what a Cat 4 did to Punta Gorda. We saw solid block walls on some building blown to smithereens. It was unbelievable.

[Moonarino]

Since I'm sitting on my porch at Myrtle Beach right now I'm watching her very closely as well. Nasty Irma.

...

 

 

In a very overly simplified (randomly picked) Accuweather model, one of three big arrows shows Myrtle Beach as a near bulls-eye.

 

Still way too early for any accuracy in the models. ....

 

Yep.

 

yes...I guess if you're going to compare what time of year to sail, I'd pick hurricane season over blizzard season. I'd much rather have warm water if I'm going overboard. lol

 

I could agree, if our first-ever cruise in Sept 2008 hadn't deprived us of one port. Grand Turk was still recovering from a recent hurricane, so we had to bypass. They didn't substitute another port, so we only got three of our promised four ports on that cruise. Not that I cried over it, because I loved the ship we were on. And a "bad day" cruising is even better than a bad day fishing. Lol.

 

But I also got a bit tired of having to worry if our cruise plans would be modified or completely scrapped by late-summer hurricanes, so now we usually sail in October or April-May.

 

Piedmont NC represented here, born and raised Down East. I drove up through SC on I-95 in Dec 1989, a few months after Hugo ravaged through. That whole drive was a bit dismal, as Hugo had flattened so many trees for more than a hundred miles. It was a saddening clue about how much damage Hugo wreaked in populated areas, even that far inland.

 

Also spent nine years in the Cocoa Beach-Melbourne FL area, plus a little time in the Panhandle, as well as San Antonio TX, have friends and relatives in Houston and Beaumont, have sailed from New Orleans, Tampa, etc, etc. The point being, if Irma doesn't hit "us" (present company included) directly, it will hit somebody or some place we know.

 

Mostly I hope the maps of the Outer Banks won't need to be redrawn again (for the 6th or 7th time since 1900) and also that Miami isn't abnormally devastated -- remembering the city of Homestead, just southwest of Miami, which took 10+ years to rebuild after Hurricane Andrew.

[pascalburns]

things change.stay tuned.

[Cruisegirl6]

Its too early to tell we need another day at least to see what happens...lets hope for Florida Irma dip more southwest and avoid Florida all together, anything is possible, time will tell.