Timing of Price Drops

[JamieLogical]

Has anyone noticed any sort of pattern about how far out from sailing NCL starts dropping prices on Breakaway/Breakaway Plus ships if they aren't filling up? I know for all sailings, they start dropping prices on the Sail Away categories about a week or two out to fill the last few cabins. But I assume at 2-3 months out, if the ship is still only 2/3 full they might start dropping prices on non-Sail Away staterooms?

[BostonGal35]

as of late, i have only seen fares go up. we used to book much closer to our intended sail date. now, we have been booking a year out and find we get better prices, particularly for suites.

[Notnewtoit]

as of late, i have only seen fares go up. we used to book much closer to our intended sail date. now, we have been booking a year out and find we get better prices, particularly for suites.

 

Same here, I've been watching closely as I was looking to upgrade and our old suite has been ticking UP by about $100 a month... for months. If NCL happens to have a low-load factor on a particular cruise (perhaps early in the year) it may tick the other way but those appear to be rare these days and mostly limited to insides and the like (which tend to be the last to sell out).

 

That said... they might also cancel the whole shebang and start again as evidenced by a recent thread here...

[JamieLogical]

as of late, i have only seen fares go up. we used to book much closer to our intended sail date. now, we have been booking a year out and find we get better prices, particularly for suites.

 

I think you are right for popular sailings that fill up quickly. We are booked on the Bliss for next February. We booked it this past February while on the Escape. Prices for our BA have gone up $500 pp since then! But looking at that cruise it is almost fully booked already with many categories sold out or nearly sold out.

 

However, we are booked on the Escape for this October and with the sail date just over three months away, staterooms are not selling. I have been tracking them on a spreadsheet since I first started looking at booking as soon as we got back from our trip on the Gem in early June. On June 11, there were at least 155 balcony rooms, 74 mini-suites, and 41 Havens remaining. I say "at least" because the NCL web site only shows a maximum of 15 available rooms in each category. There could be 15 or 50 rooms available in that category and I'd have no way of knowing. Also, for categories that have gone into GTY, there is no way of knowing how many rooms are still available.

 

As of today, there are at least 144 balconies, 76 mini-suites, and 41 Havens left. So at least 9 fewer balcony or above rooms available, but that's in almost a full month. If they continue on this trajectory of only selling 9 rooms a month for the next three months, they will still have hundreds of rooms free by the time we sail. I'm no marketing genius, but to me it seems like dropping prices might be a way to increase sales?

[havenfan]

Jamie, how are you getting such detailed information about cabin availability? Are you doing dummy bookings in every category or do you have an API into NCL's system?

 

Regarding cruise price movements do you know about fishing for a cruise?

[fstuff1]

Jamie, how are you getting such detailed information about cabin availability? Are you doing dummy bookings in every category or do you have an API into NCL's system?

 

Regarding cruise price movements do you know about fishing for a cruise?

following for the answer

Edited July 2, 2018 by fstuff1

[BostonGal35]

if the sailing is in october, they'll try to get maximum pricing as many still prefer to book last minute. and anyone booking inside 90 days (or is it 120 now?) will have to pay the full amount at the time of booking with no refund.

[JamieLogical]

Jamie, how are you getting such detailed information about cabin availability? Are you doing dummy bookings in every category or do you have an API into NCL's system?

 

Regarding cruise price movements do you know about fishing for a cruise?

 

 

Just dummy bookings into every category and adding the info to a spreadsheet. I have a VERY unusual idea of "fun". :p

[All-ready2cruise]

Just dummy bookings into every category and adding the info to a spreadsheet. I have a VERY unusual idea of "fun". :p

 

Fun times for sure. :)

 

Have you taken into consideration the number of cabins which may have been booked as GTYs in each category? They can add up quite substantially and scew the numbers radically. Not sure how many pax will just book inside gty and hope for the best and some will get it too.

 

Cheers

[havenfan]

Jamie, if you don't already know about this, google "fish cruise". I can give you some color about the site if you haven't run across it before.

[takeadip]

Has anyone noticed any sort of pattern about how far out from sailing NCL starts dropping prices on Breakaway/Breakaway Plus ships if they aren't filling up? I know for all sailings, they start dropping prices on the Sail Away categories about a week or two out to fill the last few cabins. But I assume at 2-3 months out, if the ship is still only 2/3 full they might start dropping prices on non-Sail Away staterooms?

 

We are 11 months out from a may 25 2019 sailing on Dawn out of NYC and some of the suite prices actually just went UP!!! that is crazy to me...seems they should go down as the ship fills cause the less desirable staterooms/ locations are left..

[goofy4mickey]

Jamie, if you don't already know about this, google "fish cruise". I can give you some color about the site if you haven't run across it before.

 

ooh...thank you

[littlelulu01]

I have only seen the prices going up. The few times I see the prices going down is if a sailing is not doing well and when that happens the prices seem to be adjusted further in advance or worst case they cancel or sell the sailing to a full charter. It's harder to tell how the non suite sales are doing just because they only show 15 max in a category. When they offer up distinctive voyage, obc, take all five and lattitude bonus they are likely anticipating slow sales. Those perks seem to get removed as sales pick up.

 

The pattern I've seen in general when placing deposits November - mid January they generally offer up some pretty good perk packages and obc. As the year progresses the perks in general get reduced and prices go up. After final payment they reduce the prices back to around what they originally were but only for sail away rates. I think that's the model they would like to stick with but the occasional fire sales still happen.

 

Suites at some point either get sold or price is adjusted so that there isn't many available by final payment. Looks like they sell enough full suites to make their necessary profit and then the rest are high priced to either sell outright or go to an upgrade bid. Anytime the suites are reasonable to begin with they sell out pretty quickly, especially on the smaller ships.

 

I think the best deals are still had by booking way out and watching for price drops just in case ncl missed the mark.

[NancyW12]

Last summer I watched the Western Mediterranean cruises and saw them go down into the $350-500 range for a solo passenger (inside GTY, 1 person) about 1-2 weeks before sailing. I booked a plane ticket for this year expecting the same. Um, no. Only one week has the fare dropped for a solo below $1000. I booked a studio with a drinks package. Those are now sold out.

This year is busier than last year.

[jlkb]

I booked our November 25 cruise on the Breakaway in January. My guarantee balcony rate has gone down 4 times, saving us $700! I purposely left a small balance to pay on our account hoping for one more price drop before our July 18 final payment date. And, we got to pick our room when we booked even though it was a guaranty rate. We got one with the huge balcony, over 100 sq. ft., on deck 8. Very excited! Also, in addition to the price drops, a couple of weeks ago, they were running a special where you got all 5 on board perks, plus prepaid tips, plus double on-board credit, and an additional restaurant meal paid for! Unfortunately, we didn't get any of these since we are in the guaranty category, but our price was so low and our balcony so great, we didn't want to switch categories to get the perks.

[cathi007]

I think you are right for popular sailings that fill up quickly. We are booked on the Bliss for next February. We booked it this past February while on the Escape. Prices for our BA have gone up $500 pp since then! But looking at that cruise it is almost fully booked already with many categories sold out or nearly sold out.

 

However, we are booked on the Escape for this October and with the sail date just over three months away, staterooms are not selling. I have been tracking them on a spreadsheet since I first started looking at booking as soon as we got back from our trip on the Gem in early June. On June 11, there were at least 155 balcony rooms, 74 mini-suites, and 41 Havens remaining. I say "at least" because the NCL web site only shows a maximum of 15 available rooms in each category. There could be 15 or 50 rooms available in that category and I'd have no way of knowing. Also, for categories that have gone into GTY, there is no way of knowing how many rooms are still available.

 

As of today, there are at least 144 balconies, 76 mini-suites, and 41 Havens left. So at least 9 fewer balcony or above rooms available, but that's in almost a full month. If they continue on this trajectory of only selling 9 rooms a month for the next three months, they will still have hundreds of rooms free by the time we sail. I'm no marketing genius, but to me it seems like dropping prices might be a way to increase sales?

 

Same thing with us. We booked a year ago for Jan 2019 14 night on the Escape, and the prices have steadily gone up. I am glad we booked early, we booked mini suite and the inventory is very low on this sailing. I actually wasn't going to book so early, now I am glad we did

[girlcruiser]

Has anyone noticed any sort of pattern about how far out from sailing NCL starts dropping prices on Breakaway/Breakaway Plus ships if they aren't filling up? I know for all sailings, they start dropping prices on the Sail Away categories about a week or two out to fill the last few cabins. But I assume at 2-3 months out, if the ship is still only 2/3 full they might start dropping prices on non-Sail Away staterooms?

 

 

My experience is after final payment but it really depends on the sailing and how well it is selling

 

 

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[Son of a son of a ...]

Jamie - Watch the weather for hurricane-cruises in October for sailings out of NYC. People may book them late when the weather firms up for the week.