Odds stacking up against Virgin Voyages succeeding?

[Lupush]

As an avid cruiser I am intrigued by the Virgin Voyages offering and really hope that Sir Branson is successful in his venture, more options is ultimately a great thing for all of us.  However, I do believe the odds of VV being successful are rapidly diminishing.  I just don't see how a non-established cruise line will be able to survive up against the following:

 

1) Coronavirus, which will cause disruption and decline in bookings for at least 3-4 months in the best case scenario.

2) A potential State Department ban on Cruise Travel in the US the same month VV is scheduled to launch.

3) A global economic downturn already wreaking havoc on the Hospitality Industry as a whole.

4) In the best case scenario as mentioned in #1, that would put VV in the position of trying to recover sailing out of Miami during Hurricane season.

5) A ban on Cuba sailings, after VV really hung their hat on the exclusive experiences it was going to create there.

6) Limited mass appeal given the adults only status of the cruise line.

 

I know this doesn't need to be stated, but cruise ships need to be full and out at sea in order to make money and stay afloat.  I just do not see how that is going to be possible for VV even with Sir Branson's deep pockets.  If Virgin Airways was any indication, I wouldn't be surprised if VV is short lived.

[flgrl67]

I agree with all that you are saying but hope that VV will somehow make it. I know that many cruisers have been looking forward to this line that is offering something different.  I am still looking forward to my cruise in September and have no plans on canceling. 

[garymfreedman]

Only an outright BAN, or my airline not flying, will stop me from getting on the cruise.. I told my wife if I die on the cruise,(she is not going), I will die happy.....,

[eroller]

38 minutes ago, garymfreedman said:

Only an outright BAN, or my airline not flying, will stop me from getting on the cruise.. I told my wife if I die on the cruise,(she is not going), I will die happy.....,

 

 

I leave on an 11-day transatlantic crossing a week from today.  I have every intention of going.  I'm not worried about being on the ship or airplane, or even getting the virus or dying (and young enough and healthy enough), but I do have concerns about being subjected to a 14 day quarantine or getting stuck in London for who knows how long because it becomes the next "hot spot".  Regardless I think the risk is minimal and so long as the cruise isn't canceled, I plan to be there.  

[mnocket]

I agree that is concerning, but what really stands out to me is that there are still cabins available for the cruises later this month.  Where they once sold out and people have canceled.... or have they never been sold out (really concerning)? 

 

I also notice that the inside cabins seem to be the preferred choice (generally sold out while the other categories are still available). If their demographic  leans towards the budget conscious, this may be a significant problem considering that cruise ships make their money on on-board spending.

Edited March 10, 2020 by mnocket

[eroller]

30 minutes ago, mnocket said:

I agree that is concerning, but what really stands out to me is that there are still cabins available for the cruises later this month.  Where they once sold out and people have canceled.... or have they never been sold out (really concerning)? 

 

 

 

They have never sold out ... I don't think a single voyage not even the maiden cruise.  I've been watching pretty closely since day one at least the first two months of cruises.  I take it back ... one cruise is sold out for sure.  The Atlantis Charter in May.  At least as far as VV is concerned.  They would consider it a sell out because Atlantis generally has to pay up front as if every cabin were occupied.  I can tell you the Atlantis charter is also far from sold out.  Pretty much every category still available ... and SCARLET LADY should be very attractive to the LGBTQ community, which I happen to be a part of.  

[Smiesgiy]

I’m booked for the 4/29 - 5/3 voyage.  It’s my 10 year anniversary with my wife and it was to be our first cruise.  We splurged on a nice room and I’m loaded up with sailor loot and on board drink credits.  But now with the outbreak its such an uncertainty to say where the world will be 45 days from now.   We’ve decided to not cancel now, and roll the dice assuming if it gets bad enough Virgin will delay the launch altogether. 

[westguy99]

Although Coronavirus  is terrible news for all cruise lines I would argue Virgin will the least impacted. At worst it is a delay on the launch of one ship. CV will hurt a cruise line with 10 or 20 ships much more than Virgin. It will also hurt companies which all they do is cruise like RCL or NCL over an long established company like Virgin where they have different revenue sources and one ship is a small part of their business plan.

 

With Italy being locked down and Asia being ground zero cruise lines with ships in those areas will also be hurt much more than Miami or Caribbean itineraries. Where would you rather cruise from right now Italy, Asia or Miami? 

 

The lines that have documented issues already with CV are now damaged goods especially with those ships. So far VV has no documented cases, no quarantines and no canceled sailings. The fact they have not sailed in the middle of this is a huge advantage. 

 

Finally I think the fact VV differentiate themselves from the most other cruises by being adults only helps them. I would also guess the people most likely to not travel/cancel are those with kids and the elderly who are not VV customers. 

 

Not good news for VV but they will be the least impacted and I doubt it will be more than a blip in their history. Other cruise lines may go bankrupt. 

[garymfreedman]

I think VV has a better chance surviving than all these other ships that are out to sea right now...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/11/coronavirus-cruise-ships-us-ports-entry/5015856002/

[Smiesgiy]

Hopefully Trump doesn’t put a ban in place tonight during the address...

[garymfreedman]

He won't. They are discussing things the cruise industry can do to mitigate issues, like requiring doctors okays for certain people, ie age and medical condition. 

[eroller]

23 minutes ago, Smiesgiy said:

Hopefully Trump doesn’t put a ban in place tonight during the address...

 

 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but he is actually trying to help the industry.  He knows how important the travel industry (air, cruise, hotel, etc) is to the US economy.  No one wants to see cruise lines fail, but without question challenging times are ahead.

 

Mind you the Department of State did throw the cruise industry under the bus after their meeting last weekend with Pence, but hopefully they are past that.  Airlines were almost included in that Department of State advisory but deleted at the last minute.  Talk about bringing the US economy to a standstill.   

Edited March 12, 2020 by eroller

[eroller]

Now we actually have city Port Authority's canceling cruise calls.  If this were to happen in Miami/Fort Lauderdale then we are talking even bigger issues for the cruise industry.  

 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by eroller

[garymfreedman]

I am amazed at the lack of communication from VV on the upcoming cruises.. I have already gotten two emails from Jet Suite X on what actions they are taking, including no change or cancellation fees...

[Smiesgiy]

Agree!  I called Sailor Services again today and the same line.  I urged them to put something out in writing. 

[twodjs]

eroller - Wow, that's where many cruise lines begin their extremely popular Alaska cruises. Vancouver B.C. is the other port. Several cruise lines also are based in Seattle. This could be a painful summer for Alaska. 

[garymfreedman]

10 minutes ago, twodjs said:

eroller - Wow, that's where many cruise lines begin their extremely popular Alaska cruises. Vancouver B.C. is the other port. Several cruise lines also are based in Seattle. This could be a painful summer for Alaska. 

Painful for Alaska? How about for the entire country.  It is not going to stop at Alaska.........

[eroller]

1 hour ago, garymfreedman said:

I am amazed at the lack of communication from VV on the upcoming cruises.. I have already gotten two emails from Jet Suite X on what actions they are taking, including no change or cancellation fees...

 

 

Seems odd they haven't come out with a written peace of mind cancelation policy like most of the other lines.  

 

With the Europe travel ban announced tonight, I finally threw in the towel for my transatlantic crossing next week.  I will cancel tomorrow.  I just wouldn't enjoy it at this point wondering what is going to happen after I arrive in Europe.  There will always be other cruises after all this is behind us.  

[70KToM]

I canceled yesterday. I was due to sail on May 3rd. Their current policy is that you can cancel but you can't get a refund. So you get full credit towards a future cruise which must be used within one year.

[Smiesgiy]

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/coronavirus-norwegian-cruise-line-leaked-emails-show-booking-strategy-11590056

Not a good look for Norwegian.  Pushing false info out to protect bookings.

[kwokpot]

Princess has suspended all cruisesvfir 2 months. Biking has suspended ALL river and ocean cruises.

[garymfreedman]

1 hour ago, kwokpot said:

Princess has suspended all cruisesvfir 2 months. Biking has suspended ALL river and ocean cruises.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/carnivals-princess-cruises-to-pause-global-ship-operations-for-60-days-over-coronavirus.html

[Lupush]

Makes absolutely no sense for Virgin to launch with these types of environmental disruptions.  At this point they should just delay for 60 days minimum.  I'd be so inclined as to say they should delay until after hurricane season is over.

[kwokpot]

12 minutes ago, Lupush said:

Makes absolutely no sense for Virgin to launch with these types of environmental disruptions.  At this point they should just delay for 60 days minimum.  I'd be so inclined as to say they should delay until after hurricane season is over.

Do we actually know which cruise date is officially the first sailing of the Scarlet Lady? Are those mini preview cruises still going on?

[eroller]

30 minutes ago, Lupush said:

Makes absolutely no sense for Virgin to launch with these types of environmental disruptions.  At this point they should just delay for 60 days minimum  

 

I agree a 60 day pause like Viking and Princess would be the right thing to do. Reboot and reevaluate at that time.