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mnocket

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About mnocket

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Evergreen CO
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    Celebrity
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    Everywhere

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  1. clo, it seems you may be confused. bosslaydee was talking about DEATHS, particularly among the old and ill. It's true that 30% of COVID infections are in the 20 to 40 age group, but we're talking about deaths here. As you can see when we look at the actual death rate (which was what bosslaydee was discussing) the story is very different. I think it's clear from the above graph that bosslaydee's statement "Not everyone dies from covid. And the ones who do (elderly and immunocompromised) should stay home." is supported by the data. As for responsibility...... I understand that some people think it is the responsibility of the young to protect the elderly from COVID exposure, and in a perfect world perhaps this would be the case. However, I can understand the young and healthy, who are not at substantial risk from COVID, wanting/needing to get back to normal. I don't blame them. Accordingly, I feel it is the responsibility of the elderly and compromised (e.g. me) to protect themselves. The young may not socially distance, but I must. When leaving the house, the young may wear cloth masks, or no mask at all, but I must wear a N95 or equivalent mask. When restaurants reopen, the young can eat inside, I can't. I think it's time we stop complaining about the young and healthy returning to normal, and start taking responsibility for protecting ourselves. If we enter environments where social distancing is impossible (e.g. cruise ships), we are responsible for any outcome.
  2. IMHO the ONLY measure of the safety of cruising in the COVID world is empirical data once cruising resumes. Those who are willing to sail on the inaugural cruises will provide the hard data that allows the rest of us to judge the true safety of sailing once again. No amount of regulations, policies, practices, etc. can replace this hard data on efficacy.
  3. I wouldn't count on it. Cruise lines have taken on massive debt to survive the shutdown and they will undoubtedly have to reduce occupancy on future sailings. Both of these factors will necessitate substantially increased fares in order to return to profitability. Might there be some targeted discounting to encourage bookings? Possibly, but I don't expect this to be widespread or long lived. Even now we don't see aggressive across the board discounting to encourage bookings. Just my opinion, but I think betting on future prices to fall is a losing bet.
  4. I have no doubt that price increases will be the norm and will be substantial. Just considering two factors it's obvious that price increases are unavoidable.... 1) Cruise lines have taken on massive debt to survive the shutdown. These increased debt payments must be covered by increased fares. 2) In order to achieve even the appearance of social distancing, and meet almost certain government requirements, cruise lines will have to reduce occupancy. With high fixed costs, cruise lines cannot be profitable with reduced occupancy unless they increase fares. These price increases may alter the "value" proposition for many cruisers. Hopefully over time prices may relax somewhat, but cruise lines will face crushing debt for the foreseeable future.
  5. Keep in mind that the CDC is a government regulator just like the FAA. They are risk adverse. The FAA is now going on its second year of reviewing the 737-Max fixes and still hasn't granted approval to return to service. I don't expect the CDC will be as slow in granting cruise lines approval to return to service, but I sure don't expect approval to be speedy.
  6. Quite correct. It is highly unlikely that any eventual vaccine will be anywhere close to 100% effective against COVID. Influenza still remains a problem despite the availability of a vaccine, and COVID will still remain a problem once a vaccine is available. The hope is that a vaccine will reduce the risk associated with COVID to an "acceptable" level - just as other vaccines have done for their targeted illnesses. The threat (risk) of COVID will not be eliminated. It hopefully will be reduced. Will the post-vaccine risk be "acceptable"? That's an individual judgement each of us will have to make.
  7. Thank you for being one of the few posters to actually answer the question posed.
  8. Apparently you haven't been following the cruise industry for the past 10 years. Reduction of benefits/standards has been the norm pretty much across the board. The VV changes don't really stand out among all of the industry changes.
  9. Either. People who are booking these cruises don't know what the protocols will be. They are nonetheless planning on going.
  10. Is there room under that blanket for me? I couldn't agree more. People worrying about social distancing during embarkation are missing the obvious - social distancing while on board the ship will often be impossible. Do you think MDR seating will be spaced 6 ft apart, with only family members sharing a table? Do you think sun loungers will be spaced 6 ft apart? Do you think bar seating will be 6 ft apart with no one standing in-between? Do think you can maintain social distancing on the elevators? How many seats are within 6 ft of you when sitting in the showroom? Do you think those seats will be empty? I could go on and on. The point is...... if social distancing is still required, you don't want to be on a cruise ship - and embarkation is just one of many problems.
  11. It may be. Government regulators don't move quickly. Boeing's 737-Max re-certification is in it's 2nd year and still not cleared to fly. It's not unthinkable that risk-adverse CDC regulators could keep cruise ships "grounded" far longer than many anticipate. No way of knowing at this point.
  12. That pretty much mirrors my experience. It's interesting that on this, and other boards, people are reporting some opposite experiences. With cruise lines taking on huge debt and being required to follow some COVID precautions that will impact revenue (i.e. reduced occupancy), price increases would seem unavoidable, yet some are still finding bargains.
  13. They may be good guidelines, but I don't think they will work for me. First, running at 50% capacity is a losing proposition for the cruise lines unless they raise rates dramatically. Second, I just don't think it would be enjoyable having to wear masks while on the ship. On another note...... I was surprised by this tidbit...... No more financial goals for medical staff: A cruise ship doctor who spoke with the Herald on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation said his company has financial goals for medical staff during each cruise. If the staff meets the goal for several weeks, they get a bonus. He calls the reward system “unethical.’’ I never knew ship's doctors got bonuses for meeting revenue goals.
  14. Optimists are booking cruises now because they trust that the COVID precautions will be effective and will not degrade the cruise experience significantly. I wish I was an optimist, but I'm not wired that way. I kind of fear the worst until I have evidence otherwise. I see a high potential for COVID precautions to alter the cruise experience in a negative way. I hope I'm wrong. I very much want to take a Norwegian Fjords cruise in 2021, but I'll likely wait until 2022. I need to evaluate the cruise experiences reported by the optimists (thank you for being the trailblazers). That way I'll have a better idea if cruising still holds the value for me that it once did.
  15. In my infinite wisdom, I see 2 possibilities..... 1) Cruising resumes in late summer/early fall and demand is strong. Reviews confirm that social distancing measures have not seriously degraded the cruise experience. There are no major COVID incidents. Cruise stocks soar and never look back. 2) Cruising resumes, but there are COVID incidents/port refusals etc. Cruising is again suspended. Cruise stocks crash to below recent lows. Of course there's always the odd chance I'm wrong and something in between 1 & 2 occurs. That's what makes a market🤪
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