Polaris hit by rouge wave

[chengkp75]

I rarely rely on Wiki for source material.  But, even then, the quote mentions rogue waves to be "notorious" west of the Horn, while the Polaris was east.  Even granting your contention that rogue waves are more predominant there, what precautions should the Captain of the Polaris have made that were not made, to prepare for the unlikely event of encountering one?  Do you know if those precautions were followed?  And, was the Captain of the ship following Polaris (not sure what line) also at fault for making the crossing of the Drake passage at the same time?

 

Looked back at the "expeditions" thread, and saw that 4 other cruise ships were crossing the Drake passage that same day as Polaris.  Did they all make a mistake?

Edited December 13, 2022 by chengkp75

[Midnight Cruiser]

40 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Looked back at the "expeditions" thread, and saw that 4 other cruise ships were crossing the Drake passage that same day as Polaris.  Did they all make a mistake?

So 5 cruise ships were crossing the Drake Passage that day?  Which 5?  That seems way too high - I don't think that Ushuaia can accommodate 5 cruise ships ...

[SJD117]

1 hour ago, Midnight Cruiser said:

From Wikipedia: … In addition to these "normal" waves, the area west of the Horn is particularly notorious for rogue waves, which can attain heights of up to 30 metres (98 feet).^[23]"

This statement links to a paywall-restricted, 13 year-old article from the Economist. That magazine doesn’t normally come to mind as a preeminent source of oceanographic knowledge. And, there are more current articles on rogue wave locations than this piece. See for example the Wikipedia entry for “Rogue Waves,” which contains much more recent links than the cited entry.

[Clay Clayton]

5 minutes ago, Midnight Cruiser said:

So 5 cruise ships were crossing the Drake Passage that day?  Which 5?  That seems way too high - I don't think that Ushuaia can accommodate 5 cruise ships ...

Here is a link  to the post that is referenced (and lists the 5 ships)

 

[SJD117]

12 minutes ago, Midnight Cruiser said:

So 5 cruise ships were crossing the Drake Passage that day?  Which 5?  That seems way too high - I don't think that Ushuaia can accommodate 5 cruise ships ...

The Cruisemapper site shows 5 cruise ships in Ushuaia’s port as of December 1, 2022. So the port must have at least this capacity.

[Midnight Cruiser]

2 minutes ago, SJD117 said:

The Cruisemapper site shows 5 cruise ships in Ushuaia’s port as of December 1, 2022. So the port must have at least this capacity.

Thanks.  I was thinking of larger ships.  So with smaller ships you apparently can dock at least 5.

[Midnight Cruiser]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Looked back at the "expeditions" thread, and saw that 4 other cruise ships were crossing the Drake passage that same day as Polaris.  Did they all make a mistake?

Risk is a matter of probabilities.  So if any of the five captains knew that the probability of a passenger death that day due to the crossing was 20% (which it was), should they have taken the chance?

 

Of course, the probabilities are not equal among the ships involved.  Some ships be more seaworthy than others, and some crews more experienced with heavy weather and the Drake Passage.  So each captain would have calculated the risk differently.

[Heidi13]

18 minutes ago, Midnight Cruiser said:

Risk is a matter of probabilities.  So if any of the five captains knew that the probability of a passenger death that day due to the crossing was 20% (which it was), should they have taken the chance?

 

Of course, the probabilities are not equal among the ships involved.  Some ships be more seaworthy than others, and some crews more experienced with heavy weather and the Drake Passage.  So each captain would have calculated the risk differently.

 

When determining probability while conducting risk assessments, we do not use such a small one day sample, as any incident skews the resultant probability. When determining probability we would use a large sample, such as all crossings over a period of at least a year, or all crossings in November for the past 10 years.

 

Risk management is also only one of many factors included in the SMS that the Master must consider when determining whether the intended passage is safe. 

[Heartgrove]

35 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

When determining probability while conducting risk assessments, we do not use such a small one day sample, as any incident skews the resultant probability. When determining probability we would use a large sample, such as all crossings over a period of at least a year, or all crossings in November for the past 10 years.

 

Risk management is also only one of many factors included in the SMS that the Master must consider when determining whether the intended passage is safe. 

 

Is the Safety Management System (SMS) an individual document for each ship? Your use of "we" confuses me. Have you actually read Viking's SMS for this ship? There are four functional components of the SMS: Safety Policy; Safety Risk Management;  Safety Assurance; and Safety Promotion. SRM and SA are the key processes of the SMS. The owner of the vessel is responsible for the SMS creation although that can be passed to the master as the master will have more definitive knowledge of information to be contained in it.

 

But with the two ships being relatively new, how would determining probability specific to that vessel be determined? Is the data is borrowed from other vessels crossings for the year, or as you suggest crossing for November over 10 years, are the other ships of the same unique design? Or are generalities used which could (but may not) then also skew the results?

 

These two ships are of a singular design which, I believe, is what VO was searching for and has marketed as such on their website and elsewhere. Including that, wouldn't the Naval Architect responsible for the design be looked at as well? I am sure the inquiry will be a lengthy investigation and until the results are found, then every comment here is conjecture.

[Host Jazzbeau]

@Midnight Cruiser: you're out of your depth, but you won't give up.  So this thread is locked.