NCL stock...actually (NCLH)...tanking today.

[schmoopie17]

"NCL topped first quarter earnings estimates. However, shares dropped after quarterly revenue fell short of analysts' expectations."

 

So...in other words...they made more money than was estimated, but because it fell short of what the "experts" expected, the stock tanked.

Not being a financial whiz, I'm having a hard time reconciling those two things.

 

In any case, my whopping 100 shares that I bought at $12.90 are still making a little money (along with our OBC benefit).

[Distinctive-Destinations]

27 minutes ago, schmoopie17 said:

"NCL topped first quarter earnings estimates. However, shares dropped after quarterly revenue fell short of analysts' expectations."

 

So...in other words...they made more money than was estimated, but because it fell short of what the "experts" expected, the stock tanked.

Not being a financial whiz, I'm having a hard time reconciling those two things.

 

In any case, my whopping 100 shares that I bought at $12.90 are still making a little money (along with our OBC benefit).

It’s both good news and bad news. Happens all the time.

 

Edited May 1 by Distinctive-Destinations

[Ellis1138]

There's three types of stocks:

 

The one where it looks like a staircase going up.

The one where it looks like a staircase going down, or worse, a slide.

And then there's the Mountain Ranges.

 

NCLH has been a Mountain Range. When I saw the 2020 crash, I grabbed 100 of NCLH at 10 and 100 of CCL at 7. Not for pure investment purposes, but I knew I would be going on cruises, post-pandemic, and I had faith the industry would make it. I could not also afford to get 100 of Royal, which was 24 at the time. 

 

It's going to be rocky rides, with the stocks going up and down due to investor emotions and not based on actual performances. Just hang on for a while and get your OBCs. Right now, the industry shoud be ok and NCLH is still filling ships on NCL, Oceania and Regent.

[Yesimapirate]

1 hour ago, schmoopie17 said:

"NCL topped first quarter earnings estimates. However, shares dropped after quarterly revenue fell short of analysts' expectations."

 

So...in other words...they made more money than was estimated, but because it fell short of what the "experts" expected, the stock tanked.

Not being a financial whiz, I'm having a hard time reconciling those two things.

 

In any case, my whopping 100 shares that I bought at $12.90 are still making a little money (along with our OBC benefit).

It actually means they made LESS than expected.   They just spent less than expected. I guess not enough Haven passengers order extra lobster tails???

 

You can only cut so much.  Future profitability is based on revenue.   I wonder what new fees there will be "for your convenience ".

[mistertomatoe]

Everything is already priced in so when there's a surprise the stock moves more than usual. Good news is bad when it's not good enough. Bad news is good when it's not so bad. Then there's looking at the future and what the price should be.

 

I bought 100 shares. It'll probably go down more but I lost so much more in the casino on this cruise. 11 more days to go... 

[RocketMan275]

3 minutes ago, Yesimapirate said:

It actually means they made LESS than expected.   They just spent less than expected. I guess not enough Haven passengers order extra lobster tails???

 

You can only cut so much.  Future profitability is based on revenue.   I wonder what new fees there will be "for your convenience ".

all the cruise line stocks are down.  CCL and RCCI down more percentage wise than NCLH.

[Yesimapirate]

2 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

all the cruise line stocks are down.  CCL and RCCI down more percentage wise than NCLH.

Yes but NCLH had their quarterly report this morning and announced a revenue miss.  

Edited May 1 by Yesimapirate

[mistertomatoe]

Just now, RocketMan275 said:

all the cruise line stocks are down.  CCL and RCCI down more percentage wise than NCLH.

Hmm.. screenshot?

[schmoopie17]

26 minutes ago, Ellis1138 said:

Just hang on for a while and get your OBCs. Right now, the industry shoud be ok and NCLH is still filling ships on NCL, Oceania and Regent.

Yep...I didn't buy this stock to be able to afford to retire. (We retired in 2015). Mostly bought it for ----- and giggles...and the OBC. And the entertainment of watching the ups and downs.

[RocketMan275]

Just now, mistertomatoe said:

Hmm.. screenshot?

Hmm. Google.

[9tee2Sea]

i did not purchase NCLH to make money, I just purchased it for the OBC.  I dont care what the stock is worth once Im dead.

[mistertomatoe]

7 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Hmm. Google.

 

[Distinctive-Destinations]

1 hour ago, Ellis1138 said:

There's three types of stocks:

 

The one where it looks like a staircase going up.

The one where it looks like a staircase going down, or worse, a slide.

And then there's the Mountain Ranges.

4) Dead Money. Stock like utilities or consumer staples that stay basically flat, typically held for dividend income.

[Panhandle Couple]

Laughable decline.

The revenue "miss" was $40 million, which is 2% of the actual revenue.

Dropping 10-12% for a 2% miss is overreacting.  Time to scoop up some stock if you want some OBC.

 

The primary thing to look at for NCL is the debt schedule.  Are they paying off their debt or refinancing it?  Are they adding new debt just for operations? (vs new ships)

My quick glance:

They are paying off their debt IAW their 2023 end of year statement.

They have not refinanced any of it (moving it to out years at higher rates) which was done in the past.

Remaining 2024 debt is achievable based on current revenue levels. 2nd qtr will pay off a high rate short term "survival" debt.  4th qtr will do the same. 3rd qtr has very low debt payments required, allowing them to paydown some of the 2028 and 2029 debt, if they desire.

 

NCL goal is to focus on debt repayment, not necessarily maximize earnings per qtr.  

[luv2kroooz]

I didn't read the report. My simple mind is wondering how could they miss revenue in a period of record demand, with record bookings at substantially higher fares? Did they just overestimate their results?

[destar]

5 hours ago, schmoopie17 said:

In any case, my whopping 100 shares that I bought at $12.90 are still making a little money (along with our OBC benefit).

I hope you didn't purchase this stock thinking you were going to make money on it. I purchase for the OBC.

I purchase my 100 shares at $20.25, but when it sank to $11, I bought another 200 shares which I sold at $20+. So my original shares were basically free.

[schmoopie17]

6 minutes ago, destar said:

I hope you didn't purchase this stock thinking you were going to make money on it. I purchase for the OBC.

I purchase my 100 shares at $20.25, but when it sank to $11, I bought another 200 shares which I sold at $20+. So my original shares were basically free.

In case you missed it, go back and read post #9 in this thread. I bought it on a whim, not expecting to make much of anything (except OBC). Anything else is gravy.

 

Edited May 1 by schmoopie17

[destar]

3 hours ago, schmoopie17 said:

Mostly bought it for ----- and giggles...and the OBC.

Excellent!! schmoopie, Cruise on!

[Panhandle Couple]

54 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

I didn't read the report. My simple mind is wondering how could they miss revenue in a period of record demand, with record bookings at substantially higher fares? Did they just overestimate their results?

The next BSO is on the market, Viking cruise Lines went public (IPO) today with a limited offering.  It went up over 10% as everyone loves bright shiny objects.  Attribute some of NCL's decline to mega-fund managers "diversifying" their holdings to include the BSO.  Always sounds good on paper for their own quarterly reports.

 

In reality, this should have been a ho-hum report.  Some of the analysis I have read is hilarious,

One "expert" stated that NCL's 105.7% of available berths is due to: Like airlines, cruise companies routinely overbook, anticipating that some customers will cancel.

 

I guess this person has never been on a spring break cruise.

[luv2kroooz]

4 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

all the cruise line stocks are down.  CCL and RCCI down more percentage wise than NCLH.

Might want to recheck the math on this one.

[RocketMan275]

Just now, luv2kroooz said:

Might want to recheck the math on this one.

My post was four hours ago.

[Buford T Justiice]

I thought it was MKing8288's review of lunch and dinner service on the Prima T/A that was sinking the NCL stock today

[luv2kroooz]

They could always raise the service charge to $22 or $23 per person per day to help meet their revenue projections.

[mistertomatoe]

1 hour ago, Panhandle Couple said:

One "expert" stated that NCL's 105.7% of available berths is due to: Like airlines, cruise companies routinely overbook, anticipating that some customers will cancel.

 

I believe that's because some cabins have 3rd or 4th guests. Other cruise lines report over 100% of what I assume is the same metric. Of course you don't want it to be too high since it indicates you might be able to get more profit by raising prices.

[PartyPlannerLady]

7 hours ago, schmoopie17 said:

"NCL topped first quarter earnings estimates. However, shares dropped after quarterly revenue fell short of analysts' expectations."

 

So...in other words...they made more money than was estimated, but because it fell short of what the "experts" expected, the stock tanked.

Not being a financial whiz, I'm having a hard time reconciling those two things.

 

In any case, my whopping 100 shares that I bought at $12.90 are still making a little money (along with our OBC benefit).

 

A big non=issue.  Most likely a result of day traders who specualted and lost.  Any serious investor would love the Q1 numbers they reported.  The change form last year Q1 at a loss of 38¢ per share to a gain this year is quite impressive.  If I had money to nvest at thsi point I woudl certainly be a buyer at a great buying opportunity like this.