markeb

Back to the OP, I don't recall anything in the dress suggestions that say anything about sneakers. And it's not like you're ever going to see the people you're dining with again in your life anyway! And if you do and they care about sneakers, do you really want to see them again?

Just got back from Germany, wearing jeans and NB running shoes everywhere. Hardly alone, and most people talked to me in German. Twenty years ago that look would have everyone starting in English. Twenty years ago I wouldn't have worn that look to avoid looking like an American.

I don't recall tacos in August on Equinox, but we were mostly grabbing salads and the very good Indian food. Those look pretty good, though! I guess we'll see in November!

Rum old fashioned… Was Zacapa Old Fashioned. Rumor is that Zacapa is no longer the rum, but it’s always been a great drink.

Which ship? Is there a World Class Bar?

You can read their last year's SEC filings (RCG level; they don't report subsidiaries separately). The two primary variable operating expenses are food and fuel (personnel costs are largely fixed in the short to midterm). They reserve the right to collect a surcharge when fuel prices go above a threshold. They don't reserve that right for food. Food prices are up. Beef prices are way up and supply is down (there's an ongoing drought in much of the US cattle country and no one expects real relief in beef production until at least 2024, and it will take several years to return to pre-drought conditions). Revenue for many cruises was largely set as long as two years ago when the ships went on sale, and before food prices took off. And the highest priced cabins have largely been the quickest to sell, even at the current high prices. I have no idea if it's impacting RCG more than Carnival, for instance. If it is, then Carnival did something right that RCG didn't. Or RCG is under more pressure from creditors. Someone flippantly said money, but that's almost certainly why. And it's not greed; RCG had an operating loss of $764M last year. After counting interest, their net loss was over $2B. The good news is that's a lot better than the almost $6B loss in 2020 and over $5B loss in 2021. The RCG leadership is made up of former CFOs and Operations people. This is what they do. I don't think they can get out of this mess by becoming uber efficient, but that's the leadership they have. And if their board didn't support them, they'd be gone. What's interesting from Jeremiah's post is at the same time they're pushing efficiency, they're also trying to improve their F&B operations. Curious to see if they can somehow do both.

This thread just popped to the top again. I just returned from a week in Germany with a side trip to Salzburg. I did use actual Euros, but pretty much only because we went to Oktoberfest which is still cash only. We used a handful of Euros 4-5 times for small purchases (bottles of water, Lebkuchen in Salzburg) and one meal in Munich where they may have had a card reader but didn't offer (and by that time I had Euros in spite of myself). I'm reasonably sure if I'd gotten away from Munich out into one of the small towns I would have been better off with cash, but most places even took my AMEX. Contactless and Apple Pay. Zero issues with the ATMs for cash withdrawals. I will continue to be confounded by my fellow countrymen who insist on ordering currency in the US and traveling to a physical bank to pick up currency they could easily lose before even arriving.

Probably. Most of the world doesn't devote grain production that could be used for human food to produce (mostly) corn to finish cattle. Grain fed cattle will have more intramuscular fat (marbling), a different texture to the beef, and a different flavor. A lot of the world largely grass feeds cattle. There are also age differences at slaughter around the world. Too much information for a cruising board, but your observation is probably correct. I grew up on beef, but don't eat that much of it anymore for a variety of reasons, so I'm better at the theory here than observing the actual state of beef. It's not surprising that people would see a difference in a steak this year from two years ago. The droughts of the last couple of years led to major sell offs of beef cattle and a decreased supply in general. It takes a lot of food and water to get a calf to choice, much less prime, and prices have gone up accordingly. I don't really know if that problem is hitting cruises (Celebrity in particular) disproportionately. Or if some business have done a better job of hedging.

Curiosity got the better of me. Beef keeps coming up as a major topic of consideration for quality and price, so I did a little looking. Beef prices are up over 6% since this time last year; that may finally be moderating slightly. They started rising dramatically in early 2020 and have trended aggressively upward since then. The draughts in the Southwest led to major beef sell offs, which ultimately decreased supply. Logically there would have been a large bolus of beef cattle entering the market all at once, which usually leads to a lot of lesser quality beef in the first place, and more frozen/processed products. One article specifically mentioned huge increases in the price of beef roasts, such as you'd use for prime rib. It hasn't been a good year for beef in general. Food and fuel are the two big cost drivers for the cruise industry; I'm lumping labor into essentially a fixed cost for the short to midterm. The cruise industry business model encourages cruise sales well in advance, but that also fixes the price and revenue for a significant part of the inventory. They would project their expenses for food and fuel on historical norms. We've gone through a long period of low inflation so at a macro level you should be able to project your food costs with a (WAG) 2% annual increase. But that's not what's happened with food costs. AND beef supplies in general are down. Is it hitting Celebrity worse than other beef consumers? If so, what did the others do different? The food service for the fleet is almost certainly operating on a per person per day allowance that's more reflective of revenue than actual costs (remember the motto do more with less?). Does any of that explain delivering cold meals? No. That's a different problem.

@marieps There were some earlier replies, including from me, that veered into territory that resulted in some pruning, so very simply… It’s complicated. TSA and CBP officers are considered essential by the DHS. Air traffic controllers are considered essential by the FAA. They can be compelled to work but can’t be paid without an appropriation, but thanks to a law passed in 2019 during the last lapse in appropriations they (and all federal employees) will get back pay once there are appropriations. Most of the administrative staff would be subject to furlough but they’d also eventually get paid. This year’s potential complication is the periodic reauthorization of the FAA also expires on Saturday. I’ve seen mixed opinions on that but that authorization includes the FAA’s ability to collect and use fees involved in air travel. Not my area at all but that’s separate from their annual appropriation. Short answer as others have stated, I wouldn’t expect much change for travelers initially. Government employees should be paid Friday and the first financial impact would be October 13, the first playdate after any lapse. The biggest issue in the short term is you generally can’t take on a new obligation without an appropriation and in the past I’ve seen that result in freezing hiring actions, which could result in short staffing in some places. There are likely impacts on processing passports, Global Entry, and TSA Precheck related to travel. There are always potential impacts beyond paying personnel but that can be very agency and department specific. Beyond that, OMB will have implementation guidance standing by and federal agencies will have their contingency plans ready for Sunday and Monday if needed.

I’m on a slow connection. What about Aqua and the retreat? Are insides ever profitable on their own?

I know you love the uber long B2B2B2B2B cruises, Ken, but most people don’t have that kind of time off. They need people to consider a cruise as a vacation who otherwise wouldn’t, and many of those folks are more likely to do a short cruise using fewer vacation days. Creativity is going to take a back seat to revenue for awhile…

Maybe for people who don’t have a lot of time off? Why does it have to be a booze cruise?

Depends. The drinks are all free (for the most part; I’m sure there’s a limit) in the retreat. Food can be better depending on the airline and location (overseas better than domestic). Centurion is probably better than either, but they’ve become too crowded.

There are never 10 unsold seats. That's the point. I'm second priority for free domestic upgrades; haven't been upgraded even using my premium upgrade points on a domestic flight in years. Waitlisted for international, never cleared. I'm watching a flight for this evening. I'm near the top of the waitlist for Polaris (my wife one lower, so let's hope THAT doesn't happen). There "may" be two seats at this point, but they could just as easily sell them before boarding.

I don't know where you're flying. Rooms sometimes. Seats almost never. I've seen sold out flights with 50 elite flyers on the upgrade list (United)...

I guess it's the dream of most corporations to find themselves with a product with essentially inelastic demand. And, like it or not as a consumer, they'd be crazy not to milk that. But it won't last, and the ultimate backlash could be a bear. Of course, it's entirely possible this phenomena is hitting all or many cruise lines. We'll see.

Zeniths receive a premium drink package (and premium Wi-Fi) so no cost.

Actually, yes. Not sure why that matters.

What were they charging for the Pappy?

The VAT refund is for items purchased in the EU and taken out of the EU. Things like hotels, restaurants, and other goods “consumed” in the EU don’t count. If you take home shoes from Mallorca, you can refund the VAT. If you pay to have your shoes shined, you won’t get a VAT refund. If you take a case of wine out of the EU, you can get a VAT refund. If you drink a case of wine in the EU, no refund.

They do their random, be five minutes away when you get the text, product drops for Blanton's. And sometimes Wellers. I enter the lottery for Pappy, and laugh hysterically when I do it...

Yeah. Me too. Forgot there was a Costco in DC. Blasted VABC!

I can't add to the transportation, but if you're considering going to the Churchill War Rooms or the HMS Belfast, I'd get an IWM joint adult membership. The main IWM is free, but Duxford, the war rooms, and the Belfast all have admission fees. The war rooms at least used to have a separate line for members; admission was otherwise reserved and could sell out. But not for members. If you visit at least two of the admission fee sites, you should come out ahead on the membership.

That's Virgin Atlantic. Virgin America is now part of Alaska Airlines and doesn't exist as an independent company.