How High Can They Go???

[sail7seas]

We've all commented we've noticed a considerable increase in the pricing for HAL cruises.

Some commented 9% increase and then there were folks who said the price for a comparable cruise was over 20% more than last year.

I'm sure they are carefully watching every other cruise line's pricing but wonder at what point they get too costly and there begin to be too many empty cabins. I wonder if they will be forced to reduce prices as cruise date approaches to fill those cabins.

Are the prices getting to the 'as high as you are willing to go' point yet?

[Giorgi-one]

I believe that cruise prices are still lower than they were 5 years ago. I remeber paying about $1500 per person (included air fare from Philadelphia)for a very small outside cabin on RCCL Sovereign of the Seas in 1996. I still think I can get similar accomodations for the same price today. Please don't get me wrong, I am not in favor of highter prices, but I think we had a great 5 year run and it's over unless something drives down the demand for cruises.

[lcruiser]

It is not only the price, but also the reduction on quality and service that we are experiencing throught the industry. That to me is more negative.

[jhannah]

That's an interesting question, S7S. How high is too high? I'm guessing that for each person the answer will be different. In the case of necessary things like gasoline, we'll all just grouse and pay the cost because we have to get to work. But cruising, even for us diehards who prefer this method of taking a vacation, is a discretionary expenditure. There probably aren't many of us who say "Who cares about the cost? I'm cruising regardless of what it sets me back." We can reach a point where we have to say, "I can't pay that for my cabin of choice, and I'm not willing to settle for less even though it's a little cheaper."

 

With all the efforts to attract new and younger cruisers, it stands to reason that the cruise lines will capture many newcomers who not have cruised before. They won't know about some of the great per diems we've enjoyed over the last several years. Therefore, they'll just think the price is standard. They will pay it, and be happy. So HAL and the other lines will be able to fill their cabins sufficiently to continue to turn a profit. That's my read.

 

As for me, the prices are still within reason ... for now. Once I retire, the story will be different.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Jim, I agree that prices are still within reason. I think we were all very spoiled with what happened with the pricing after 9-11. Before getting hooked on cruising we would do a lot of land based vacations especially to Hawaii. We really enjoyed the pricing immediately after 9-11, then we took our first cruise.

In just a few weeks we are going to Maui and I am amazed at the prices of Land Based Hotels. To stay at what would be considered a nice hotel in Maui the averager room cost per night, is $600 plus some of those are not with Ocean View and also includes NO FOOD. Based on that you are paying $4200 for 7 nights plus the hotel taxes PLUS the daily hotel ammenities fee of $18.00 (NO this is NOT for Tips) I think cruising is still a HUGE Bargain. I feel lucky that I am only having to pay 2 nights of the 5 nights we are staying and the company that is sending me is paying for food and entertainment for 3 of the days.

 

With those prices I guess I can afford for the cruise prices to go up 20% but to cruise frequently I may only have a S Suite once a year and the rest a A or B catagory.

[ekerr19]

Good question, Sail...

 

I recently got a promo for Europe 2005 that had unbelievably low pricing for 12-day cruises. The prices are comparable to what we are paying this summer for a 7-day Alaska. The only reason these prices have been dropped this low is because the bookings are down.

 

I think folks will still continue to pay to cruise, and I don't think current prices are too high. They were much higher in the 80's and 90's.

 

I also think these low prices bring out many people who have not previously cruised, and have no intention of cruising again unless the price is right. For them, it's not so much about a "cruise" - it's about a vacation. For those of us who consider cruising as the "only vacation", we will most likely continue to cruise, no matter what the cost.

[BCEagle78]

In the past 5 years or so, the number of people who have turned to cruising as a vacation alternative have seen a significant increase as the realization of the relative high value for low price has been discovered by many more people than ever before. They view it as a better value than other types of vacation options which have also evolved over time. (anybody recently price out a weekend in Las Vegas??? Big bucks, compared to years past when it was considered cheap to go to Vegas).

 

The lower prices of the past few years has "hooked" a lot of people who would not have been traditional cruise tourists. The demographics are younger and more affluent.

 

The result is that the cruise industry has created a following that has some momentum. Most ships are selling out, even though there are more ships than ever before. When HAL or any cruise line turns away people who want to book, they realize that they could get a higher price and that's exactly what we are seeing. Add to that the signficantly higher price for fuel and you will see big increases.

 

I believe that if the prices get higher, there will be some portion of the poplulation that is willing to cruise now that will choose not to. When we get to the point that there are cabins left unoccupied, then it will go back the other way. But for now, the momentum is in the favor of higher prices.

[Krazy Kruizers]

There was a comment on the TV the other day that the number of people cruising is a record high - especially among new cruisers. And the comment was also made that the reason so many chose to cruise was because they felt that they were getting more for their money than on a land trip - especially when children are involved. And another comment was made that the cruise prices are going up because they know that they have "hooked" a lot of new customers.

How long will everyone be willing to pay prices when they keep jumping 9% to 20%? Only time will tell.

[venicecruiser]

Perhaps if the "quality" of food, service, amenties was making an upward climb comparable to what the prices are, people would be more tolerant of higher prices. Please note that, in my opinion, this applies to all cruiselines-not just HAL.

[Jim Gallup]

In 1912, the price (per person) for a 2nd class cabin on the HMS Titanic for a 4.5 day cruise from London to New York was $2,850.00. That year the average American earned $300 in a 12 month period.

Was the service in Second Class on Titanic dramatically better than it is today on most crusie lines? From all accounts, not really.

 

25 years ago on Royal Viking Line, a typical 7-day cruise in a standard outside cabin cost about $6,000 per person. The average tip was $19.75 per passenger per day. The quality and service were spectacular.

 

Today a standard outside cabin for 7 days will cost you less than $1,000 per person. The average tip given today is less than half of what I received on Royal Viking.

 

Without even considering inflation and the nearly worthless dollar, you are paying just a small fraction today for a product that you somehow expect to be as good or better than it was in the "good old days" when you were paying far, far more. Do these expectations seem realistic to anyone here?

 

If you reduce a service employee's salary by over 50% and get an 80% price reduction on your cruise, should you expect to receive the same quality and service levels you received when you paid top dollar?

 

If your own salary was cut by over 50% in order to make your product more affordable to the lower classes, would you have the same dedication and attitude to excellence ?? I sincerely doubt it.

 

Has the quality of cruising and cruise line service deteriorated over the past century?? Absolutely. But for the money paid, it is still the best around.

 

Has the quality of cruise line passenger deteriorated over the past century.

Absolutely. We used to serve the Howells. Now it is Gilligan.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Has the quality of cruise line passenger deteriorated over the past century.

Absolutely. We used to serve the Howells. Now it is Gilligan.

 

 

Well Said!!!!

[jhannah]

We used to serve the Howells. Now it is Gilligan.

Hey! I resemble that remark! :D I agree that cruising today is a bargain compared with what it was years ago, and that we can't expect "first class Titanic service" for a price we're (most of us, I guess) willing to pay.

[shipcafe]

Well Said!!!!

Indeed, I find this poster to be one well spoken . . .

[bepsf]

I agree w/ Jim Gallup's comments to a certain extent -

Yes, cruising has certainly become more accessible to us "Gilligan"s, however "The Howells" who were perfectly fine w/ outside staterooms on Royal Viking have either moved up to Deluxe Veranda Suites on HAL, Concierge Class on Celebrity, or over to Crystal, Silversea, Radisson or Seabourne - and they aren't cheap...

Addressing S7S's question:

I believe that all the economies of scale and sourcing of staff from 2nd & 3rd world countries have pretty much maxed out any potential cost savings for the lines. That combined w/ the weak dollar results in pricing that - given the continuation of current trends and conditions - will never drop to their late-2001 level ever again.

Indeed, as the availability of raw materials and petroleum continue to decrease their prices will go ever higher, eventually to the point that cruising will be far, far beyond the reach of "Gilligan".

If alternate sources of cheap, reliable, non-petroleum-based energy aren't discovered, even "The Howells" will eventually find themselves stranded...

"...and the "Minnow" would be lost."

:(

[jhannah]

Brian, if that is the case (and I don't doubt the possibility of the scenario you present) would this signal the end to newbuilds? Would the cruise lines just let their fleet numbers drop by attrition because of the reduced demand? It does pose some interesting what-ifs.

[BellaBaci4]

My husband and I will be on our first HAL cruise, because we refused to sail with Celebrity and their non discount policy. We have been on approximately 10+ cruises on Celebrity. I priced the same ship, same category,same time of year and same itinerary as last year to Bermuda. The price was more that 50 % higher than last year. That was the impetus for us to jump lines, so we will see what happens. I could never justify an increase such as that.

 

Happy Sailing,

Bella

[RevNeal]

If alternate sources of cheap, reliable, non-petroleum-based energy aren't discovered, even "The Howells" will eventually find themselves stranded...

 

It's called "nuclear." But ... the security concerns involved cancel out that possibility.

[Oceanwench]

We have two cruises booked this year, one in May, one in November.

We upgraded ourselves to an SS, which will probably spoil us from now on!

 

If the prices for 2006 on a Vista ship reflect an slight increase [10-20 percent], we would probably cruise in the spring and fall again.

But if prices soar, we'll probably rethink our vacation plans.

 

Rather than pay $3K for two in an SS suite, we might spend a week in the Keys or over on the west coast of Florida.

We'd probably spend 5 days on vacation instead of 7.

And if the cruise bug bit, we might look for a 3-day or 4-day instead.

[bepsf]

Brian, if that is the case (and I don't doubt the possibility of the scenario you present) would this signal the end to newbuilds? Would the cruise lines just let their fleet numbers drop by attrition because of the reduced demand? It does pose some interesting what-ifs.

 

Yes, Jim -

I believe that within the next 50-60 years, there will be no more pleasure cruises on motorized ships. Perhaps a few relatively small privately owned and operated yachts will exist, but cruising as you and I know it will be a fond memory.

The lines will probably continue to build some new ships in the next 10 or even 20 years - but never again in the numbers and scale of newbuilds that occurred in the past 10 years.

What doesn't end up scrapped will lie in ports around the world rusting away because of the lack of energy to dismantle them and recycle the steel, much less move the leviathans...

[bepsf]

It's called "nuclear." But ... the security concerns involved cancel out that possibility.

 

You're right Greg--

Currently there are countries around the world that refuse to allow nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines in their ports.

Unless there is an amazing change to come, they would never allow a nuclear-powered cruiseship to come to their country...

[Classynfun1]

I know I've said this before, but I'll say it again.

 

There are just too many idiots, like me, out there for the prices to go down any time soon. I just paid $4100 for inside-shares on a Med. B2B. Yes, INSIDE SHARE!

 

I'm new to cruising and just didn't know better. I just knew I wanted to see many different places along the Med. and Aegean Seas and thought this would be the easiest way to do it. Now that I'm seeing "deals" for $999 (and shares for $1300 each) for the same trip 2 weeks earlier, I'm kicking myself. Still, I'll enjoy my cruises and learn my lesson! :rolleyes:

[venicecruiser]

The post by Jim Gallup, in my opinion, stated a valid point of view-in part.

 

My comments would be:

 

There are a great many more cruiselines/ships/itins to choose from today than in the "good old days".

 

If one is willing to pay a much higher fare on Seabourn, Silversea, Radisson, Windstar, and Queens/Princess Grill level on Cunard, then I believe the food/service/amenities must justify the higher fare.

 

When we are discussing mass-market cruiselines, a 50% increase in the price of the exact same ship, cabin category, itin, dates sailed from one year to the next with NO improvement in food/service/amenities, and in some cases a decreased quality in those areas does not make people quite as willing to tolerate the increased cost.

 

I understand that energy costs paid by cruiselines have increased. I also understand that a newbuild costs a considerable amount of money. I understand that "overall" costs incurred by the cruiselines have gone up. But when cruiselines start charging 30, 40, 50% over what they charged for the exact same product one year ago with no greatly noticeable improvments in that product, then I believe some people will decide to spend their money elsewhere and that includes making the move "up" to the luxury lines.

 

I have no problems with companies making a profit. Thats usually what they are in business to do. Some of the price increases I've seen lately along with the "no discounting" policy now being adhered to by RCI/Celebrity will, again in my opinion, come back to bite them in the proverbial hind-quarters.

 

Back in the "old days", it was understood that first-class cruising was for people with the money to pay for it. If you look at mass-market cruiseline advertising over the last few years they are selling-to the average person-the illusion that they too can experience what the first-class pax of the old days enjoyed for just a fraction of the cost. A lot of people bought into that marketing and started cruising. After experiencing a few cruises, they began to learn what they expected/desired/would accept when they were on a cruiseship as well as what they thought it was worth in terms of price. Is it any wonder that people are grumbling when the exact same experience now costs them 30% or more than it did last year?

 

Everyone has to decide for themselves how and where they want to spend their "leisure" dollars. Some people, I'm sure, will complain about the price increases and continue to cruise with whatever line they prefer. At the same time, I think others will either cruise less often or try something different. Guess time will tell..........

[RedmondCruiser]

I'm currently looking at a 1982 Alaska Brochere for HAL. An inside cabin, for a 12 day cruise from San Francisco, was $2715 PP. Port charges were $22.50. Using prices from Cruise Value.com I could stay on the Ryndam for 4 cruises and still not be up to that price.

 

The glut of new ships and 9-11 has created an artificial low price stucture that cannot last. The best rates were in 2002 and 2003, now there going back up again. Sad to see but reality has to come home some time.

 

What I have noted several times is that the lines have all come up with cost cutting measures and new streams of revenue to offset the low prices and that I HOPE that some of these approaches will be either modified or removed once rates have come back up again. Room stewards now can have up to 15 rooms to do rather than 12 and waiters have more people to serve. I hope that this can go back to a more reasonable level.