Upcoming Caribean Weather

[reallyitsmema]

Just as an update to this. Something is brewing down there for this weekend. I don't leave until June 3 but if you are sailing on the Oasis or the Allure this coming weekend, it bears watching.

 

A few things:

 

1. Yes I know the boat will be fine.

2. I don't care about port changes etc. RCL will do what's right. I agree you go for the ship not the ports.

3. Yes I know I shouldn't worry its a cruise and I need to forget about such mundane things

 

All that being said. . .

 

Most of us still have to fly into Fort Lauderdale and weather definately impacts that. No one likes a rainy cruise and most of all . . .I don't like lots of ship motion. I was on the NCL Spirit out of New Orleans last year and near Belize we had huge swells. It was scary!

NCL Spirit could be one of the Allure's lifeboats.:eek:;):p Those two ships handle seas completely differently. I know being on a ship during heavy seas can be scary but the Allure will handle it.

 

Now, stop looking up weather sites and get some packing done! You are going to have a great cruise.:)

[bunker1706]

Don't panic. Its a rainstorm. The media has little catch phrases and it seems they make a new one each year:rolleyes: tropical wave, tropical depression, tropical storm ... and now this one they are saying is expected to be a subtropical storm. What the hell is a subtropical storm?! :rolleyes:

 

I have lived in hurricane zones all of my life. Realize the media LOVES a good storm story. Are hurricanes dangerous? You Betcha!

But until it is a category 2 hurricane it is nothing more then a storm.

 

I would have to look up hurricane history but off the top of my head I do not think a strong hurricane has ever hit in May/June. Hurricanes expend a ton of energy keeping their shape and strength up. That is why hurricanes do not stay at the cat 4 or 5 for very long. They can't sustain the energy they need. The warmer the waters the stronger the hurricane. Frankly the ocean isn't warm enough to have a hurricane.

 

I am sure you have had storms locally that are just as bad as a tropical system. The media just gets thrilled at using the terms as they generate viewers.

 

Keep this in mind. Next week is National Hurricane prep week. Many of the coastal areas send out info and all on how to prepare for a hurricane. The news usually runs a few stories as well. If there is a tropical system in the area during this national hurricane pre week, it gets a ton of attention from the media ;)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

 

 

If you look up the Saffir-Simpson scale (the categories) You will see the lowest rated system is the tropical depression. The winds are 0-38 mph. Places like Wyoming get those type of winds everyday. Also tropical depressions do not have a storm surge worthy of recording.

 

The system out there right now is not even near that. It is expected to be a subtropical system... which would make the winds less then 38mph.

 

Keep an eye on it but don't get worried your trip is ruined. Keep in mind the media and how they love covering stories like this :rolleyes:

 

Well said Brook. We get these types of storms all year round and they're nothing but a heavy rainstorm. But, I don't think people who live in Florida or Louisiana know this. The forecasters will say anything to get people to worry and get out and start buying water, generators, etc.

 

Of course I would love for there not to be rain while I'm on my vacation, but I'm trying to be realistic and I knew when I booked it, that in June, there is always a chance of rain. I'll deal with and be happy I'm not at work.

[praline3001]

Well said Brook. We get these types of storms all year round and they're nothing but a heavy rainstorm. But, I don't think people who live in Florida or Louisiana know this. The forecasters will say anything to get people to worry and get out and start buying water, generators, etc.

 

Of course I would love for there not to be rain while I'm on my vacation, but I'm trying to be realistic and I knew when I booked it, that in June, there is always a chance of rain. I'll deal with and be happy I'm not at work.

 

Yup!

 

I don't want people to think I take hurricanes lightly. I do not. They are very dangerous. Since I live in New Orleans and we get hit often, it is the norm for everyone here to have an evac kit. We have a full kit we keep in our office. This way I can just grab and go if they evac us out. I usually leave before they make the call so I am not stuck in traffic. I live 6 feet below sea level so I don't play around about staying ;)

 

However those types of systems do not show up until august or Sept.

I would never book a cruise in Aug or Sept. Not just due to our trip possibly being ruined but I don't want to be in the ocean when a hurricane is destroying my house. :cool:

[mtsublueraider]

I guess the thing i'm mainly worried about is the tender in Grand Cayman. What are the conditions that would make the ship decide to skip it? I'm assuming it's much easier to sail into a dock and tie up than to send the tender ships out. But... i've been wrong before!

[praline3001]

I guess the thing i'm mainly worried about is the tender in Grand Cayman. What are the conditions that would make the ship decide to skip it? I'm assuming it's much easier to sail into a dock and tie up than to send the tender ships out. But... i've been wrong before!

 

This is a map loop of the area, including the storm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

 

You can see Grand Cayman on that map even though it is very tiny.

 

The system has already past the Cayman islands. The storm is moving north East away from the Caribbean.

 

You still have a few days before you get on the ship. It will have moved a great deal by then in the Northeast direction. The system is fairly fast moving for a tropical system as well. It is moving northeast at 15-18mph. For a tropical system that is really fast moving. The smaller systems that stall are the ones that cause problems. Nothing like having a depression moving 1 mph over your house :rolleyes:

[praline3001]

If you see something like this in the Caribbean then you have my permission to worry :p That would be what a real hurricane looks like. :D

 

[Pomperaugrr]

Guaranteed forecast: There will be increasing brightness after dawn, with a chance of clouds, sun, or rain. There will be increasing darkness toward evening. Ocean conditions are predicted to be wet, with some waves and scattered sand on the beach.

 

Eric

[dmwnc1959]

I guess the thing i'm mainly worried about is the tender in Grand Cayman. What are the conditions that would make the ship decide to skip it? I'm assuming it's much easier to sail into a dock and tie up than to send the tender ships out. But... i've been wrong before!

 

Last year, even when there weren't any hurricanes or tropical storms in the Caribbean, I watched on AIS Marine Traffic as cruise ships would literally pull within sight of Grand Cayman and then keep going because the waters were too rough to tender into port. I also watched on AIS as a single ship would anchor on the south side of the island (they normally anchor on the west side) as the rest would head elsewhere and spend that day at sea. It doesn't take much sometimes to skip Grand Cayman. :(

 

Just hope for the best, remain flexible, and have a great cruise!

[FLACRUISER99]

NOAA is now saying 40% chance of developing. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[FLACRUISER99]

I use this site http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29 tons of storm information.

[praline3001]

NOAA is now saying 40% chance of developing. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

That is not what they are saying exactly. If you read it again ~

it has a 40% chance of becoming a Sub tropical or tropical depression.

 

As I said earlier ~ a Tropical depression is winds up to 38mph. it is not even sustaining winds of 30mph just yet.

 

That is nothing more then any regular storm. it is also moving 15-18mph AWAY from the Caribbean in a northeast direction.

 

Please make sure to read everything before posting about the storm. It needlessly scares people who are ready to cruise. :D

[bunker1706]

According to this it looks as though most of the storm is up near Florida's coast and it's moving pretty quickly.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USFL0338

[praline3001]

According to this it looks as though most of the storm is up near Florida's coast and it's moving pretty quickly.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USFL0338

 

Yup it is moving away from the Caribbean to the northeast at 15-18mph. That is REALLY fast for a tropical whatever they want to call it now :rolleyes:

[praline3001]

For those who are still worried or nervous here is my handy dandy map explaining the situation.

 

Yellow -cayman islands

blue- Bahamas

Red the direction the storm is going.

 

As you can see it has already passed the Caymans and will be passing the Bahamas in the next few hours. The further north it goes the more it will weaken due to the cooler water surface temps.

 

It isn't even going towards the Caribbean. I am not sure why everyone is making a big fuss and are worried? At 15-18mph it is moving so fast that even if you were on at a port when it hit it would only last a couple of hours TOPS as its small and moving fast.

 

See, no worries! Now be happy (singing Don't worry be happy song):D

 

[mtsublueraider]

For those who are still worried or nervous here is my handy dandy map explaining the situation.

 

Yellow -cayman islands

blue- Bahamas

Red the direction the storm is going.

 

As you can see it has already passed the Caymans and will be passing the Bahamas in the next few hours. The further north it goes the more it will weaken due to the cooler water surface temps.

 

It isn't even going towards the Caribbean. I am not sure why everyone is making a big fuss and are worried? At 15-18mph it is moving so fast that even if you were on at a port when it hit it would only last a couple of hours TOPS as its small and moving fast.

 

See, no worries! Now be happy (singing Don't worry be happy song):D

 

 

 

Love it, thanks for the map! I'm going out of Port Canaveral on Sunday and flying in on Saturday. Looks like we'll be ok. Storm will be out to sea on Saturday, but then the model I saw says it will come towards jacksonville and south georgia on Sunday. So it may be a little sketchy when we set sail on Sunday afternoon, but hopefully that's the end of it!

 

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!!!

[praline3001]

Love it, thanks for the map! I'm going out of Port Canaveral on Sunday and flying in on Saturday. Looks like we'll be ok. Storm will be out to sea on Saturday, but then the model I saw says it will come towards jacksonville and south georgia on Sunday. So it may be a little sketchy when we set sail on Sunday afternoon, but hopefully that's the end of it!

 

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!!!

 

I saw that too but I don't see how it could. Do you realize the kind of energy it takes for a storm to change course like that? Its basic physics. A tropical system going 15-18mph would have to expend way more energy then it has. If the storm was crawling along or stalled I could see it changing courses but really... At his current speed it would be an act of God for it to change course.

[FLACRUISER99]

That is not what they are saying exactly. If you read it again ~

it has a 40% chance of becoming a Sub tropical or tropical depression.

 

As I said earlier ~ a Tropical depression is winds up to 38mph. it is not even sustaining winds of 30mph just yet.

 

That is nothing more then any regular storm. it is also moving 15-18mph AWAY from the Caribbean in a northeast direction.

 

Please make sure to read everything before posting about the storm. It needlessly scares people who are ready to cruise. :D

I have been living in S Fl for over 15 yrs and the only thing that is predictable about storms is that they are unpredictable! What scares me is when weathermen say 0% chance of developing. Personally I don't think this storm is anything to worry about, however keep an eye on it.

[praline3001]

I have been living in S Fl for over 15 yrs and the only thing that is predictable about storms is that they are unpredictable! What scares me is when weathermen say 0% chance of developing. Personally I don't think this storm is anything to worry about, however keep an eye on it.

 

I have been living in hurricane zones for over 40 years. I have been through Betsy (as a babe) Hugo, Andrew and Katrina. Those aren't the 100 of depressions and storms, just the biggies.

My family was living on the Isle of Palms when Hugo hit.

 

Hurricanes are predictable when they are moving in the complete opposite direction of the Caribbean going 15-18mph. :D

[FLACRUISER99]

Hurricanes are predictable when they are moving in the complete opposite direction of the Caribbean going 15-18mph. :D

Read this about Jeanne in 2004 http://www.hurricanecity.com/jeanne.htm see track with loop here http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-jeanne-2004

[praline3001]

Read this about Jeanne in 2004 http://www.hurricanecity.com/jeanne.htm see track with loop here http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-jeanne-2004

 

That is exactly my point. Jeanne's top speed was 12mph. It stayed stationary over Haiti for a long time before moving directions. When a hurricane is stationary or moving at a crawl it is wanting to change directions due to high pressure systems. They act like road blocks and stalls the storm out. They take the path of least resistance and turn direction.

 

this storm is moving FAST and to the northeast. It is not stalled. If it was just sitting there stalled then i would agree.

[donaldsc]

Go to one of the many Google sites and check.

 

DON

[praline3001]

Here is another link to a radar map that is easy to figure out.

 

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/interactive-storm-tracker

if you zoom in, you will see Nassau is not even getting rain at this time. They may get some tonight but the biggest part of the storm is already north of Nassau and is effecting Freeport, which is on an entirely different island.

 

You can also see that the majority of the area covered is in green, meaning light showers. There is only a very small amount in red.

 

Right now Minneapolis has a worse storm then Florida. I guess that isn't news worthy as Tropical systems sound cooler :rolleyes:

[Sadric]

According to NOAA there is 0% of developing into and organized system due to less than favorable wind conditions...so basically there is going to be rain, about 60% which means it will be scattered probably on and off during the afternoons which is normal for the tropics but the one thing that you have to watch out for in the water is lightning but very little of that, i hope that helps.

 

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47573933/

 

NOAA was so accurate.

[Sadric]

I saw that too but I don't see how it could. Do you realize the kind of energy it takes for a storm to change course like that? Its basic physics. A tropical system going 15-18mph would have to expend way more energy then it has. If the storm was crawling along or stalled I could see it changing courses but really... At his current speed it would be an act of God for it to change course.

 

Well God is certainly acting.

Tropical Storm Beryl is due to hurtle across the northern part of Florida and then fling back to the North East.

 

The Energy and Physics you are talking about is not in the storm itself, its in the Systems around the storm. As such the High pressure system sitting in the north will fling it SW for a while then as the High pressure ridge breaks down, the storm will continue its NE track. By Thursday, it will be sitting somewhere off the coast of Virgina I would imagine.