Upcoming Caribean Weather

[Sadric]

Weather is starting to look shaky in the Carribean for the next little while. My cruise is June 3. Anyone have insider weather knowledge? Im on the Allure which means Ft. lauderdale, Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. . .

[yogimax]

 

Anyone have insider weather knowledge? . .

 

You're kidding right?

 

In any case go to the weather uinderground site for seasonal averages.

[Sadric]

You're kidding right?

 

In any case go to the weather uinderground site for seasonal averages.

 

kidding about what?

 

There is a burgeoning tropical storm system down there and I was wondering what our resident board meteorologists thought.

[leaveitallbehind]

kidding about what?

 

There is a burgeoning tropical storm system down there and I was wondering what our resident board meteorologists thought.

 

Probably would get better and more immediate information on weather.com or on the cable tv weather stations.

[bunker1706]

If you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov the most recent report says that there is 0% chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation. The odds of this turning into something is slim to none.

[mtsublueraider]

If you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov the most recent report says that there is 0% chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation. The odds of this turning into something is slim to none.

 

 

Thanks for posting that. Makes me feel better about my Sunday Freedom of the seas departure! Ha!

[Sadric]

If you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov the most recent report says that there is 0% chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation. The odds of this turning into something is slim to none.

 

Thank you for the Noaa website. I was unfamiliar with it.

 

I was looking at this:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/watching-the-atlantic-for-new/65530

 

[bunker1706]

Enjoy your trip. I always say, a rainy day on vacation is way better than a sunny day at work.

[bunker1706]

Thank you for the Noaa website. I was unfamiliar with it.

 

I was looking at this:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/watching-the-atlantic-for-new/65530

 

 

You're welcome. Living in Florida I always start looking at this site about mid May. I actually find it interesting to follow the storms. Have a great trip.

[Eng23]

Well I don't know about "insider" weather information but I do know Hurricane Season officially starts June 1 and we have already had the first official tropical storm of the season form and quickly head out to sea off the east coast. I was just in the Bahama's this past weekend and there were a few shower's down there but nothing major to speak of.

[cb at sea]

We don't even know for sure what the weather will be tomorrow!

 

 

There's no way to tell...if a storm occurs, the ship will avoid it.

[cruisindoggie]

Weather is starting to look shaky in the Carribean for the next little while. My cruise is June 3. Anyone have insider weather knowledge? Im on the Allure which means Ft. lauderdale, Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. . .

Really? over a week away. Don't be so paranoid, the weather changes daily. Just go and have a good time!:)

[Sadric]

Really? over a week away. Don't be so paranoid, the weather changes daily. Just go and have a good time!:)

 

Good Advice. I must agree!

[rs3678]

According to NOAA there is 0% of developing into and organized system due to less than favorable wind conditions...so basically there is going to be rain, about 60% which means it will be scattered probably on and off during the afternoons which is normal for the tropics but the one thing that you have to watch out for in the water is lightning but very little of that, i hope that helps.

[praline3001]

If you go to www.nhc.noaa.gov the most recent report says that there is 0% chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation. The odds of this turning into something is slim to none.

 

Best weather site ever when it comes to tropical areas of the Caribbean.

If you listen closely ~ most TV weather people use this site for their weather reports ... including The Weather Channel. Just listen for the "NOAA")

 

I live in New Orleans and the industry shipping company along with several oil refinery and power plants all use this .. and only this to make their decisions on what to do for a storm. It is the best of the best weather scientist!

 

They also do not try and make predictions so much as give you all the information and you can decide. When there is an actual tropical storm it will give the % chance of each town in its path.. so instead of the TV weather guy saying, "Yeah this storm is expected to turn and not hit us"

NOAA will say, "Town A: 2%. town B 9%.

 

One of the best things to ever come out of my city :D

[praline3001]

Also ~ for anyone wanting to watch out for hurricanes or tropical systems in the far future (2 weeks or so) the best bet is to look at the Western coats of Africa (called eastern Atlantic on the loops on Noaa). Most of the large storms start out as tropical waves coming off of Africa. Not always but many times. Then look at the map of weather loops in the Caribbean. If a system is higher in the Caribbean it will either turn and go back out to sea or hit the east coast of USA. If the system is at the bottom of the Caribbean it will go into the gulf. The gulf stream is responsible for predicting where a system will go.

 

Most important ... the majority of tropical system fizzle out pretty quickly. If you worry over every tropical system you will make yourself crazy. Its not rare to have 3 systems out there at once and all 3 fizzle out. Even if you aren't hurricane savy no need to panic until it turns into a hurricane. Tropical waves and storms are no biggie.

Many people in New Orleans and other hurricane prone places hope that the hurricane hits just a few miles east of them. The imediate east of the hurricane gets the most beautiful weather! Not hot, beautiful breeze in the muggy heat of summer. Sun is usually out as well. I LOVE being east to any tropical storm!

 

In my life I have been in the following hurricanes. I do not mean kind of sort of but that the bullseye was right on where I was.

Hurricane Hugo: Lived 6 miles from the ocean and our home got a direct hit. I was 18 at the time

Hurricane Andrew: After Hugo, my family moved to the outskirts of New Orleans. Andrew his us strait on.

Then Katrina. Yup house was damaged..roof and windows.

 

That isn't the many smaller systems I have been through but just the major ones :D

[praline3001]

For those who have no experience with hurricanes. Remember the hurricane always looks worse on radar then it actually is. Only a very small area will be effected by the force winds. This was the case with Katrina... Katrina weakened and was not a strong storm when it hit. The disaster came in after the cities levees broke 12 hours after the storm made landfall.

 

Make sure you understand the make up of hurricanes as well. On this map (this is Andrew) you will see the outer bands on the west side of the storm. This makes Andrew look huge! The outer bands however are mostly wind and very VERY light showers off and on. The rains are very warm it it feels GREAT. The showers only last for a few minutes. The wind cools things down so folks can do their prep stuff before the actual storm hits.

Only about 20 mile area around the west part of the storm will be hurt.

http://www.ask.com/fr?q=hurricane+andrew&desturi=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FHurricane_Andrew&fm=i&ac=900&ftURI=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ask.com%2Ffr%3Fq%3Dhurricane%2Bandrew%26desturi%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fen.wikipedia.org%252Fwiki%252FHurricane_Andrew%26imagesrc%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fupload.wikimedia.org%252Fwikipedia%252Fcommons%252Fthumb%252F4%252F44%252FAndrew_23_aug_1992_1231Z.jpg%252F236px-Andrew_23_aug_1992_1231Z.jpg%26thumbsrc%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fsp.ask.com%252Fsa%252Fi%252Fhs%252Fhurricane-andrew.jpg%26fn%3D236px-Andrew_23_aug_1992_1231Z.jpg%26o%3D15527%26l%3Ddis%26f%3D2%26fm%3Di%26ftbURI%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.ask.com%252Fweb%253Fq%253Dhurricane%252Bandrew%2526o%253D15527%2526l%253Ddis

[awboater]

As a boater, we generally use the term "They don't NOAA what they are talking about".

 

NOAA, at least in my region of the country, used to be decent, but they centralized all of their meteorologists to a different area of the country a few years ago, and as a result, they lost local knowledge (and accuracy). Weather patterns form differently around the Great Lakes - which in some respects generate their own weather - and can be finicky.

 

These days, I prefer www.weatherunderground.com for my boating forecast. They have a pretty good tropical forecast section as well. The guy that runs the site (Dr. Jeff Masters) used to be a hurricane hunter that flew with the NOAA aircraft.

[praline3001]

As a boater, we generally use the term "They don't NOAA what they are talking about".

 

NOAA, at least in my region of the country, used to be decent, but they centralized all of their meteorologists to a different area of the country a few years ago, and as a result, they lost local knowledge (and accuracy). Weather patterns form differently around the Great Lakes - which in some respects generate their own weather - and can be finicky.

 

These days, I prefer www.weatherunderground.com for my boating forecast. They have a pretty good tropical forecast section as well. The guy that runs the site (Dr. Jeff Masters) used to be a hurricane hunter that flew with the NOAA aircraft.

 

Where abouts are you from? NOAA's main concern is the tropics. That is what they do and keep track of any and everything going on in the gulf and Caribbean. Since this is their focus, those who do not live near a hurricane prone area would have little use for it. Most people do not click on the NOAA links until hurricane season. So someone from Montana would have little use for NOAA unless they were going on a cruise to the tropics.

[reallyitsmema]

Thank you for the Noaa website. I was unfamiliar with it.

 

I was looking at this:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/watching-the-atlantic-for-new/65530

 

Another good weather site is Intellicast.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/

 

It has lots of radar and satellite loops that are very helpful.

[Sadric]

Just as an update to this. Something is brewing down there for this weekend. I don't leave until June 3 but if you are sailing on the Oasis or the Allure this coming weekend, it bears watching.

 

A few things:

 

1. Yes I know the boat will be fine.

2. I don't care about port changes etc. RCL will do what's right. I agree you go for the ship not the ports.

3. Yes I know I shouldn't worry its a cruise and I need to forget about such mundane things

 

All that being said. . .

 

Most of us still have to fly into Fort Lauderdale and weather definately impacts that. No one likes a rainy cruise and most of all . . .I don't like lots of ship motion. I was on the NCL Spirit out of New Orleans last year and near Belize we had huge swells. It was scary!

[mtsublueraider]

Just as an update to this. Something is brewing down there for this weekend. I don't leave until June 3 but if you are sailing on the Oasis or the Allure this coming weekend, it bears watching.

 

A few things:

 

1. Yes I know the boat will be fine.

2. I don't care about port changes etc. RCL will do what's right. I agree you go for the ship not the ports.

3. Yes I know I shouldn't worry its a cruise and I need to forget about such mundane things

 

All that being said. . .

 

Most of us still have to fly into Fort Lauderdale and weather definately impacts that. No one likes a rainy cruise and most of all . . .I don't like lots of ship motion. I was on the NCL Spirit out of New Orleans last year and near Belize we had huge swells. It was scary!

 

 

We're on Freedom of the Seas this coming Sunday and are a little nervous. And actually I'm looking forward to the ports more than the ship, but that's just me. Hopefully it won't cause too much of a disruption. I know there's nothing we can do, but I sure would hate to miss Cayman. We dock everywhere but Cayman and need to tender. That's where it gets to be yucky....

[Sadric]

In general I think you'll be alright wave forcast calls for 8' swells which isn't awful. Keep your eye here:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

[dmwnc1959]

Weather is starting to look shaky in the Carribean for the next little while. My cruise is June 3. Anyone have insider weather knowledge? Im on the Allure which means Ft. lauderdale, Labadee, Jamaica and Cozumel. . .

 

The other day a tropical storm formed overnight off of the coast of South Carolina. It can happen that quick. You are talking about something that is over a week and a half away before you even leave. A lot can change by then.

[praline3001]

Don't panic. Its a rainstorm. The media has little catch phrases and it seems they make a new one each year:rolleyes: tropical wave, tropical depression, tropical storm ... and now this one they are saying is expected to be a subtropical storm. What the hell is a subtropical storm?! :rolleyes:

 

I have lived in hurricane zones all of my life. Realize the media LOVES a good storm story. Are hurricanes dangerous? You Betcha!

But until it is a category 2 hurricane it is nothing more then a storm.

 

I would have to look up hurricane history but off the top of my head I do not think a strong hurricane has ever hit in May/June. Hurricanes expend a ton of energy keeping their shape and strength up. That is why hurricanes do not stay at the cat 4 or 5 for very long. They can't sustain the energy they need. The warmer the waters the stronger the hurricane. Frankly the ocean isn't warm enough to have a hurricane.

 

I am sure you have had storms locally that are just as bad as a tropical system. The media just gets thrilled at using the terms as they generate viewers.

 

Keep this in mind. Next week is National Hurricane prep week. Many of the coastal areas send out info and all on how to prepare for a hurricane. The news usually runs a few stories as well. If there is a tropical system in the area during this national hurricane pre week, it gets a ton of attention from the media ;)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

 

 

If you look up the Saffir-Simpson scale (the categories) You will see the lowest rated system is the tropical depression. The winds are 0-38 mph. Places like Wyoming get those type of winds everyday. Also tropical depressions do not have a storm surge worthy of recording.

 

The system out there right now is not even near that. It is expected to be a subtropical system... which would make the winds less then 38mph.

 

Keep an eye on it but don't get worried your trip is ruined. Keep in mind the media and how they love covering stories like this :rolleyes: