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TS / (Hurricane?) Isaac

Scott34787

By Scott34787,
in Carnival Cruise Lines

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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I believe track updates are only done every 6 hours. 11am/11pm & 5am/5pm

 

That would explain why the darn thing never moves

on the intermediate updates. :o

 

I will continue to post the track map for the

intermediate updates to keep it on the

current page - I just won't wont need to

type "no change from last update"

 

So be looking for track updates at 5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm.

 

Thanks for the tip, tbjl24! :)

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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5pm Update - 8-23 - Still west of Florida.. .but:

 

"DESPITE THE GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS

STILL CALL FOR ISAAC TO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS

OF THE GULF COAST"http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/231453.shtml?

 

175511W5_NL_sm.gif

 

 

Spaghetti Models:

al092012.png

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Postman806

Postman806

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Hahaha! I never worry about where the eye is, I always worry about the bands. Those cause the most destruction. The ocean is going to be all sorts of churned up this week(end).

 

But if you end up in the path of the eye aren't you going to get hit twice by the band?

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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But the picture does say 2 PM.

 

Maggie

 

I think they issue "intermediate advisories" at

2am-8am-2pm-8pm that include discussion

and warnings but the track updates are only generated

at 5am-11am-5pm-11pm.

 

I am not 100% sure of this... anyone feel free to

advise on this. I did check all the past updates

and I do not see any difference at all in the tracks

during the intermediate advisories.

 

I am checking and updating every three hours

whenever possible so we will have the latest

news here to plan and discuss.

 

I do appreciate everyone's input and helpfulness

on this thread! :)

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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But if you end up in the path of the eye aren't you going to get hit twice by the band?

 

Hi Postman - welcome to the party!

 

I am not a weather expert by any means,

but being east of the eye in Florida gets more rain,

wind and potential for tornadoes based on how the

storm "spins off" the water it picks up in the Gulf.

 

Anyone feel free to step in and expand on this.

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maxandmolly Great Review Rare

maxandmolly

Posted
Posted
I think they issue "intermediate advisories" at

2am-8am-2pm-8pm that include discussion

and warnings but the track updates are only generated

at 5am-11am-5pm-11pm.

 

I am not 100% sure of this... anyone feel free to

advise on this. I did check all the past updates

and I do not see any difference at all in the tracks

during the intermediate advisories.

 

I am checking and updating every three hours

whenever possible so we will have the latest

news here to plan and discuss.

 

I do appreciate everyone's input and helpfulness

on this thread! :)

The 2pm update had the eye clearing Cuba 8am Sunday morning, now it has it at 2pm. The track doesn't seem to be changing, although I expect the cone to get smaller once it clears Cuba-but every update seems to have it hitting the Bay area (or near it, across from it, whatever) later and later.

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maxandmolly Great Review Rare

maxandmolly

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I don't think that's a good thing :mad:

 

The longer it takes to get from Cuba to TB means

more time to feed in the Gulf, right?

 

Yes and no. The time between Cuba and TB seems to be holding the same, so I can't actually figure out where it's slowing down. Maybe over Hispaniola? I don't know. I just know I'm over it already, but today is Thursday and we're not looking at any effects until maybe Monday, probably Tuesday. Let's just get it over with.

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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FROM THE NHC:

"THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS."

 

Translation:

2 planes are doing very through checks of the

hurricanes - what they find will be reflected

in the 8pm track update.

 

I'm getting better at this! :cool:

 

 

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maxandmolly Great Review Rare

maxandmolly

Posted
Posted
FROM THE NHC:

"THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS."

 

Translation:

2 planes are doing very through checks of the

hurricanes - what they find will be reflected

in the 8pm track update.

 

I'm getting better at this! :cool:

 

 

I still maintain they won't really know anything til it clears Cuba and hits some Gulf waters.

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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FROM THE NHC:

"THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND ISAAC. THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS."

 

Thinking this means they are doing track updates

more often - maybe when new data from the

planes come in???

 

We will see at 8!

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DaDivaMom

DaDivaMom

Posted
Posted

Yes if you are in the true path of the storm (the eye path) then you get the swirling winds that come from the east side which are powerful and spawn tornados and such and get the rain bands and opposite winds from the west that then pick up and blow everything the other way. The dangerous part is that you get a lull or calm and people assume it's ok to go out and wham it comes again.

 

If it stays below a category one flooding will be our biggest worry but I am sending up petitions for those folks in Haiti who are going to really suffer.

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RMM34667

RMM34667

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I'm more worried about the system behind Isaac. It'll probably end up in the Gulf by just after Labor Day like the <i>Farmer's Almanac</i> has predicted, which means it'll rain on my wedding day. :( At least we don't leave for our honeymoon cruise until 2 weeks later - hopefully nothing else will pop up!

 

The one behind Issac is Joyce and she is should be no where near the gulf.

 

Hoping you has sunny skies for your wedding (although they do say it is lucky if it rains on your wedding day?)

 

(JOYCE BELOW)

joyce.gif

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Scott34787

Scott34787

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The dangerous part is that you get a lull or calm and people assume it's ok to go out and wham it comes again.

 

 

The "eye of the storm" is very strange when it's right

over you. You can feel the pressure drop, there

is almost no wind and a lot of times very clear skies.

It's eerily quiet and then, just like DaDivaMom said,

"WHAM".

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maxandmolly Great Review Rare

maxandmolly

Posted
Posted
The "eye of the storm" is very strange when it's right

over you. You can feel the pressure drop, there

is almost no wind and a lot of times very clear skies.

It's eerily quiet and then, just like DaDivaMom said,

"WHAM".

 

I remember it well. Lived in the only place where the eyes of Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all passed over. Got creepier each time.

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right trip

right trip

Posted
Posted
I'm more worried about the system behind Isaac. It'll probably end up in the Gulf by just after Labor Day like the <i>Farmer's Almanac</i> has predicted, which means it'll rain on my wedding day. :( At least we don't leave for our honeymoon cruise until 2 weeks later - hopefully nothing else will pop up!

 

Happy wedding day. I hope McDonough is not too hot on your big day and the tropical storms stay away during your honeymoon.

I taught history at HCHS in McDonough and retired after 30 years. Life is good.:)

Bobbie

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thepupilindenial

thepupilindenial

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Lived in the only place where the eyes of Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all passed over.

 

We must've lived in the exact same neighborhood, then! They intersected not a block from my backyard.

 

...counting my blessings that this storm is coming a week before I leave on the Legend!

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