amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4951 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 58 minutes ago, The_Big_M said: A quick loss of about US$400 if you bought yesterday. Yes a loss like that (400) in a single trading day is equivalent to one Shareholder 14 day ($250) OBC and one shareholder 10 day (approx $100) OBC. Your effectively 2 cruises of OBC down before you start. I think the advice ..Only buy Cruise line shares to get OBC if you can afford to loose. Needs to be RINGING in peoples ears. But this is not normal times. This Virus level of volatility on the stock market is exceptional. I think EVENTUALLY the Cruise industry share price will bottom, pricing in a 3month industry decline..possibly 6 month Industry decline. Or possibly a 12 month cruise industry decline. Any thing longer the Cruise ships themselves will become STRANDED assets. The other issue with Carnival stock is it pays a approx 5% dividend. I think that is over for the next few years. Edited February 25, 2020 by amatuercruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderingoz Posted February 25, 2020 #4952 Share Posted February 25, 2020 58 minutes ago, The_Big_M said: A quick loss of about US$400 if you bought yesterday. As has been mentioned previously, only a loss if you sell today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4953 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, wanderingoz said: As has been mentioned previously, only a loss if you sell today. To me a PAPER loss cuts just as deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4954 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, The_Big_M said: A quick loss of about US$400 if you bought yesterday. But only a loss if you sold again today, as I said, only do it if it is to be a long term investment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4955 Share Posted February 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said: To me a PAPER loss cuts just as deep. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Big_M Posted February 25, 2020 #4956 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, wanderingoz said: As has been mentioned previously, only a loss if you sell today. Could be a bigger loss if you sell tomorrow. Essentially, people have differing reasons for wanting to buy it, and may not want to hold it forever. But it may not recover back to profitable levels - I think it took 8 years to recover its peak the last time it went down a lot. If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Big_M Posted February 25, 2020 #4957 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 hours ago, MicCanberra said: But only a loss if you sold again today, as I said, only do it if it is to be a long term investment. Actually, it's still a loss whether you sold or not - just not realised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4958 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, The_Big_M said: If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant. I agree. The volatility of a $3900 us investment. versus a $100 (7day) Share holder benefit OBC is questionable. In the past possibly made sense but post Coronavirus correction and possible Cruise ship stigmatisation the financial benefit and unceratinty is very high. My plan is possibly in the future buy 100 share in Carnival and get the OBC as a benefit on Princess HAL, Cunard etc on cruises around Australia.. If it make financial sense if not sell the shares. As noted if the stock gets low enough Carnival may no longer offer the share holder OBC benefit. Edited February 25, 2020 by amatuercruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleFish1976 Posted February 25, 2020 #4959 Share Posted February 25, 2020 11 hours ago, ninjacat8 said: Please what is VP Yes, sorry - Voyage Personaliser. What the booked guest log-in area was called before the recent 'My Cunard' site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleFish1976 Posted February 25, 2020 #4960 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, amatuercruiser said: I agree. The volatility of a $3900 us investment. versus a $100 (7day) Share holder benefit OBC is questionable. In the past possibly made sense but post Coronavirus correction and possible Cruise ship stigmatisation the financial benefit and unceratinty is very high. My plan is possibly in the future buy 100 share in Carnival and get the OBC as a benefit on Princess HAL, Cunard etc on cruises around Australia.. If it make financial sense if not sell the shares. As noted if the stock gets low enough Carnival may no longer offer the share holder OBC benefit. But the shareholder benefits actually support the price of the stock. If they did away with the OBC shareholder benefit it would be a less attractive proposition and so less people would buy it and the price would drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleFish1976 Posted February 25, 2020 #4961 Share Posted February 25, 2020 4 hours ago, MicCanberra said: But only a loss if you sold again today, as I said, only do it if it is to be a long term investment. Thanks to your help, MicCanberra and RosieCanberra, with setting up the ANZ platform and advice on all the stuff, I bought mine a few days ago. Thanks for that - I don't care what the fluctuations are - the underlying value is there as well as the benefits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4962 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, The_Big_M said: Could be a bigger loss if you sell tomorrow. Essentially, people have differing reasons for wanting to buy it, and may not want to hold it forever. But it may not recover back to profitable levels - I think it took 8 years to recover its peak the last time it went down a lot. If you're just buying for OBC, but the actual value has fallen more than the OBC you get, what is the point? It's actually adding hassle to your life/financial management, and the tax complications are significant. If people are spending $6000 AUD on a short term investment, so they can get $250 OBC then something isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4963 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, The_Big_M said: Actually, it's still a loss whether you sold or not - just not realised. True, but then same applies to any gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4964 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said: Thanks to your help, MicCanberra and RosieCanberra, with setting up the ANZ platform and advice on all the stuff, I bought mine a few days ago. Thanks for that - I don't care what the fluctuations are - the underlying value is there as well as the benefits. I am sure the price will be back up past $45 before the year is out, even if it does drop further first, not that it matters, as we do not plan to sell for at least another ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted February 25, 2020 #4965 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4966 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, MicCanberra said: I am sure the price will be back up past $45 before the year is out, even if it does drop further first, not that it matters, as we do not plan to sell for at least another ten years. Ok based on 10 years share ownership Back Of envelope calculation. Outlay Buy 100 Carnival stock $4000 US $6000 Aus Assume 10 Year Ownership Typical Carnival share price appreciation over 10 years isnt much so lets say. $0 capital appreciation and gain. After 10 years you get just $4000 back Shareholder On Board Credit benefit over 10 years Assume three to four 14 day cruises over 10 years =3.5 X $250 OBC =$875 x 10= $8750 Carnival Shareholder annual Dividend 10 years at $2 per share = $200 US x 10 years = $2000 US Carnival Share Outlay $4000 Dividend Return $2000 OBC Benefit 10 years $8750 Assuming shares stay at same price you are $10,750 better off. Edited February 25, 2020 by amatuercruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Big_M Posted February 25, 2020 #4967 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said: But the shareholder benefits actually support the price of the stock. If they did away with the OBC shareholder benefit it would be a less attractive proposition and so less people would buy it and the price would drop. Not really. The number of personal shareholders holding minimal amounts compared to institutional and large cap holders is miniscule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Big_M Posted February 25, 2020 #4968 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, MicCanberra said: If people are spending $6000 AUD on a short term investment, so they can get $250 OBC then something isn't right. Even long term, any investment should be weighed up for its purpose, and value, not just bought because of a side benefit when there is a much larger amount at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Big_M Posted February 25, 2020 #4969 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, MicCanberra said: True, but then same applies to any gains. Indeed - though the discussion was around losses, and being aware of the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazydavo Posted February 25, 2020 #4970 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Ummm is this the elcheapo thread or the keen investor advice column 🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4971 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Hazydavo said: Ummm is this the elcheapo thread or the keen investor advice column 🙄 El cheapo and keen investor is same thing in my book!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazydavo Posted February 25, 2020 #4972 Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 minute ago, amatuercruiser said: El cheapo and keen investor is same thing in my book!! Haha good point 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazydavo Posted February 25, 2020 #4973 Share Posted February 25, 2020 But just think we may be straying a little from the original purpose of the thread?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amatuercruiser Posted February 25, 2020 #4974 Share Posted February 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hazydavo said: But just think we may be straying a little from the original purpose of the thread?? I think possibly the reason the forum strayed was the question.. Would I get the cheap Cruise fair AND get the shareholder on board credit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazydavo Posted February 25, 2020 #4975 Share Posted February 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said: I think possibly the reason the forum strayed was the question.. Would I get the cheap Cruise fair AND get the shareholder on board credit? Yep, and do we reckon that’s been answered now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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