Casino Slots observation

[azbirdmom]

I've heard the first / last night theory before too and can tell you that I've won and lost on all days of the cruise. Mostly lost! One interesting thing that I've observed is that some of the machines that seem to be paying out too much have been taken offline. It's happened on pretty much every cruise we've been on.

[JimmyVWine]

It is nearly impossible to play a slot machine enough to draw a conclusion from a statistically significant sample size. Almost every player has too small a sample size to conclude if a machine (individually), or all the machines (collectively) are "tight" or "loose". Person "A" can play for three hours and lose $250 and conclude that a machine is "tight". Person "B" can come along and be the next player to play that same machine and win $200 within 10 minutes and conclude that the machine is "loose". Both players have their opinions, and the casino has a $50 profit.

[cactusrose]

I found them to be excessively tight on formal nights/non smoking in the casino nights. My "theory" is that non-smokers are generally non-drinkers...so they have to make up the money somehow! Just my thoughts.

 

Non smokers are not necessarily non drinkers. If that were true you'd see more empty bars on Princess ships. The percentage of people who smoke in the US was 17.8 in 2013 and it has been dropping every year. Which is why Princess can still fill their ships with a pretty strict non smoking policy.

[rvmike]

On our last 12 night cruise wife and I played penny slots. After 12 nights and $20 between us we had fun. You will not retire on a slot machine.

[rbt001]

All the machines are networked can be changed at anytime even remotely from the home office.

 

 

This is ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE!

 

The chip installed when the machine was purchased determines the payout percentage for the particular machine. Revelation that a casino ever tampered with the chip would result in the removal of the casino's license to operate. Plus, there is no need to: play long enough and the house eventually wins.

 

Casinos will order DIFFERENT payout percentages for different machines, so that some machines are "looser" while others appear "tight". Compared to land-based casinos, cruise lines have a reputation of ordering LOWER percentage pay machines.

 

There is no switch to control the payout levels in machines, they don't change because of formal nights, first nights or last nights. They don't play better or worse with or without a card inserted. Running voo-doo feathers (as I've seen in local casinos) over the face of the machine doesn't improve odds either. It's simply the player's luck to be sitting at the machine and pushing a bet when the random number generator awards a pay.

[PrincessLuver]

This is ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE!

 

The chip installed when the machine was purchased determines the payout percentage for the particular machine. Revelation that a casino ever tampered with the chip would result in the removal of the casino's license to operate. Plus, there is no need to: play long enough and the house eventually wins.

 

Casinos will order DIFFERENT payout percentages for different machines, so that some machines are "looser" while others appear "tight". Compared to land-based casinos, cruise lines have a reputation of ordering LOWER percentage pay machines.

 

There is no switch to control the payout levels in machines, they don't change because of formal nights, first nights or last nights. They don't play better or worse with or without a card inserted. Running voo-doo feathers (as I've seen in local casinos) over the face of the machine doesn't improve odds either. It's simply the player's luck to be sitting at the machine and pushing a bet when the random number generator awards a pay.

 

I agree and this is how it works in Nevada casinos:

 

Slot machines are random

 

Slot machines work like every other casino game:

 

In every round there's a random result (from dice being thrown, cards being dealt, or reels being spun). When you win, the payout is less than the odds of winning.

 

In other words, the casino has a built-in mathematical edge on the games. The casino doesn't have to screw with the dice to beat players at craps, they don't have to screw with the cards to beat players at blackjack, and they don't have to screw with the machines to beat the players at slots. The payline symbols are chosen at random, and it's the math that ensures that you're a long-term loser.

 

As humans we try to look for patterns. We "sense" that the machines run in hot or cold cycles, that they pay better (or worse) at different times of day, or that other various things influence the results—but they don't. We look for patterns because we're not comfortable with cold, hard, non-patterned randomness. But whether you like it or not, random results is what you get.

 

That means, for example, that it doesn't matter how long it's been since a jackpot hit. The odds are the same on every spin. You've got the same chance of scoring a jackpot on a machine that just hit one, as a machine that last hit one three months ago. A machine is never "due" to hit. Every spin is random. The random nature of slots also means that it's impossible to predict when the payouts will be good. Any streaks you see are pure chance, nothing more.

 

That makes sense, because the whole foundation of casino gaming is randomness. Every other game in the casino, from craps to roulette, works the same way. The outcome is random, and the odds are simply tilted in the casino's favor. There's no mystery about slots, just like there's no mystery about craps. Why would there be?

 

Even if the casinos wanted the machines to operate otherwise, they don't have a choice. Gaming regulations demand that the machines are completely random. For example, this is from Nevada Gaming Regulation 14 (PDF):

 

"[A gaming device] must use a random selection process to determine the game outcome of each play of a game...Each possible permutation or combination of game elements which produce winning or losing game outcomes must be available for random selection at the initiation of each play....The selection process must not produce detectable patterns of game elements or detectable dependency upon any previous game outcome, the amount wagered, or upon the style or method of play."

 

There you have it. Slots aren't affected by the presence (or absence) of a player's card, how long it's been since the last jackpot hit, or anything else. Slots don't have periods where they pay out more to "make up" for earlier periods where they paid out less. They're random, period. Anyone who says otherwise is simply pulling B.S. out of thin air and declaring it to be fact, with no evidence to support their delusions. :cool::):D

[MTJSR]

This may help?

 

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=783099

[chloe45]

Years ago I thought that was true. DH always won the first night. I usually won towards the end of the cruise. On our last few cruises I found that there were only a couple of machines worth playing. They were very tight. I like the 3 play 25 cent slots. Now mostly there are foo foo penny machines. It cost way more to play these machines than the 25 cent machines if you are playing max bet. I don't know how people tell that they won. Except they make a lot of noise. Mine made a whole lot of noise for a nothing win. I saved a lot of money this last cruise. I used to allow for $100 dollars a day when I was working. This trip they were lucky to get $20 a day. Towards the end I didn't go down to the casino at all except maybe to find DH.

[Sacto Rick]

So what's the best way to win?:D

[Musky Ike]

So what's the best way to win?:D

 

Don't play

[AKman2495]

Yeah: How to double your money in a casino-take it out of your pocket, fold it in half, put it back and walk away.:D

 

Actually, the "first night" theory makes little sense because for the ship, there is no "first night". As for me, I have won a few bucks from time to time. I have found that they can loosen up over time. I have done better after a few days out than in the beginning. I can remember watching a $1 wheel of fortune machine for almost 2 weeks of our 2 weeks cruise. Finally, I decided to play it. I pulled $350 bucks out of it before it turned on me.

 

I have never hit it "big", but have won enough to cover my losses most of the time, which as Kenny Rodgers said, is not bad.....

[JimmyVWine]

I agree and this is how it works in Nevada casinos:

 

In every round there's a random result (from dice being thrown, cards being dealt, or reels being spun). ...Every other game in the casino, from craps to roulette, works the same way. The outcome is random, and the odds are simply tilted in the casino's favor.

 

I agree with everything that you said with the small exception of how card games work, if the deck is not re-shuffled before each and every round of play. For example, at a Blackjack table using 4 decks of cards there are a total of 16 Aces in play. Theoretically, (and all discussion of odds dwell in the theoretical), every Ace could be dealt out and taken out of play after only the first hand played from the shoe if there are 7 players sitting at the table (plus the dealer). Were that to happen, then there is no chance whatsoever that any player (or the dealer) will draw a "Blackjack" for the remainder of the time that that shoe is being played until such time as the decks are reshuffled. That definitely alters the overall odds and payouts. (Players need the higher payouts of "Blackjacks" every so often to offset their losses.) Whereas any roll of two dice will always leave 36 combinations in play, the fifth hand of Blackjack dealt from the same shoe cannot result in the same combination of cards being dealt as the first hand, because the cards dealt in the first, second, third and fourth hands have been removed from play and cannot reappear until a reshuffle. Think of it like this. After the first roll of dice at a craps table, the dice come up "2" and "4". Now imagine if the casino picked up the dice and put a big black "X" over the 2 and the 4 such that those numbers were "null" for the next roll. The game would change. And so to with cards (in games where the decks are not reshuffled after every hand.) And this is why card counting works, and why a player can shift the odds significantly by doing so, and why casinos do not allow the practice.

 

But otherwise, your analysis was spot on.

Edited November 30, 2016 by JimmyVWine

[beg3yrs]

Completely agree with PrincessLuver and JimmyVWine.

 

I find it amazing that well thought out and well written posts like theirs get pretty much ignored.

[PrincessLuver]

I agree with everything that you said with the small exception of how card games work, if the deck is not re-shuffled before each and every round of play. For example, at a Blackjack table using 4 decks of cards there are a total of 16 Aces in play. Theoretically, (and all discussion of odds dwell in the theoretical), every Ace could be dealt out and taken out of play after only the first hand played from the shoe if there are 7 players sitting at the table (plus the dealer). Were that to happen, then there is no chance whatsoever that any player (or the dealer) will draw a "Blackjack" for the remainder of the time that that shoe is being played until such time as the decks are reshuffled. That definitely alters the overall odds and payouts. (Players need the higher payouts of "Blackjacks" every so often to offset their losses.) Whereas any roll of two dice will always leave 36 combinations in play, the fifth hand of Blackjack dealt from the same shoe cannot result in the same combination of cards being dealt as the first hand, because the cards dealt in the first, second, third and fourth hands have been removed from play and cannot reappear until a reshuffle. Think of it like this. After the first roll of dice at a craps table, the dice come up "2" and "4". Now imagine if the casino picked up the dice and put a big black "X" over the 2 and the 4 such that those numbers were "null" for the next roll. The game would change. And so to with cards (in games where the decks are not reshuffled after every hand.) And this is why card counting works, and why a player can shift the odds significantly by doing so, and why casinos do not allow the practice.

 

But otherwise, your analysis was spot on.

 

Right on!!

[diane.in.ny]

I agree with everything that you said with the small exception of how card games work, if the deck is not re-shuffled before each and every round of play. For example, at a Blackjack table using 4 decks of cards there are a total of 16 Aces in play. Theoretically, (and all discussion of odds dwell in the theoretical), every Ace could be dealt out and taken out of play after only the first hand played from the shoe if there are 7 players sitting at the table (plus the dealer). Were that to happen, then there is no chance whatsoever that any player (or the dealer) will draw a "Blackjack" for the remainder of the time that that shoe is being played until such time as the decks are reshuffled. That definitely alters the overall odds and payouts. (Players need the higher payouts of "Blackjacks" every so often to offset their losses.) Whereas any roll of two dice will always leave 36 combinations in play, the fifth hand of Blackjack dealt from the same shoe cannot result in the same combination of cards being dealt as the first hand, because the cards dealt in the first, second, third and fourth hands have been removed from play and cannot reappear until a reshuffle. Think of it like this. After the first roll of dice at a craps table, the dice come up "2" and "4". Now imagine if the casino picked up the dice and put a big black "X" over the 2 and the 4 such that those numbers were "null" for the next roll. The game would change. And so to with cards (in games where the decks are not reshuffled after every hand.) And this is why card counting works, and why a player can shift the odds significantly by doing so, and why casinos do not allow the practice.

 

But otherwise, your analysis was spot on.

 

Which is why I now stay away from the regular BJ table because of the automatic shufflers.

 

Have more fun anyway at the FUN 21 table. :)

[pablo222]

This is ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE!

 

The chip installed when the machine was purchased determines the payout percentage for the particular machine. Revelation that a casino ever tampered with the chip would result in the removal of the casino's license to operate. Plus, there is no need to: play long enough and the house eventually wins.

 

This article contradicts you:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/12/technology/from-the-back-office-a-casino-can-change-the-slot-machine-in.html

[Romansky1]

This article contradicts you:

 

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/12/technology/from-the-back-office-a-casino-can-change-the-slot-machine-in.html

 

 

It actually doesn't. First the article is 10 years old and technology has drastically changed in that period of time and it was only a test. I would like to see an article that says the test was approved for production to actually recount what was previously said.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[azbirdmom]

This is ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE!

 

The chip installed when the machine was purchased determines the payout percentage for the particular machine. Revelation that a casino ever tampered with the chip would result in the removal of the casino's license to operate. Plus, there is no need to: play long enough and the house eventually wins.

 

The casinos at sea aren't regulated so there isn't anything to lose for them. Agree with the rest of your arguments.

[Woobstr112G]

Good for you! That must have been the $$$ I left there :).

 

Ya never know.....:D

 

:):) I hit a jackpot on the CB last week, 1099'd me too, more than I paid for the cruise...only mine hasn't made it to the bank yet, still admiring all those 100's

 

Congrats on your win. I don't think I'll ever be that lucky again in my lifetime. I still remember it as if were yesterday. I had put about $150.00 in the machine and was down to my 2nd to the last spin on what I had left on my credit indicator. With this spin I hit some indicators that gave me 9 bonus spins. On my 3rd bonus spin. 10 of the same symbols came up and my credit meter started to go crazy. When I looked at it, I thought I won $$$. When it was done, it was actually $$$$. I just stared at the machine for several minutes and then looked at a nice older lady sitting at the machine next to me who said; "Young man, I think you just hit a jackpot".....:D

 

Bob

Edited December 1, 2016 by Woobstr112G

[Lucky TGO]

My friend loves to gamble at the dice tables. He once told me the Slot Machines are here to BEAT you not GREET you. So I just stay away from them.

Tony

[mrs and mrs]

I agree with everything that you said with the small exception of how card games work, if the deck is not re-shuffled before each and every round of play. For example, at a Blackjack table using 4 decks of cards there are a total of 16 Aces in play. Theoretically, (and all discussion of odds dwell in the theoretical), every Ace could be dealt out and taken out of play after only the first hand played from the shoe if there are 7 players sitting at the table (plus the dealer). Were that to happen, then there is no chance whatsoever that any player (or the dealer) will draw a "Blackjack" for the remainder of the time that that shoe is being played until such time as the decks are reshuffled. That definitely alters the overall odds and payouts. (Players need the higher payouts of "Blackjacks" every so often to offset their losses.) Whereas any roll of two dice will always leave 36 combinations in play, the fifth hand of Blackjack dealt from the same shoe cannot result in the same combination of cards being dealt as the first hand, because the cards dealt in the first, second, third and fourth hands have been removed from play and cannot reappear until a reshuffle. Think of it like this. After the first roll of dice at a craps table, the dice come up "2" and "4". Now imagine if the casino picked up the dice and put a big black "X" over the 2 and the 4 such that those numbers were "null" for the next roll. The game would change. And so to with cards (in games where the decks are not reshuffled after every hand.) And this is why card counting works, and why a player can shift the odds significantly by doing so, and why casinos do not allow the practice.

 

But otherwise, your analysis was spot on.

 

And that is why they play with 4,5,6 decks. It increase their odds and cuts ours.

And why a good counter will let a stooge play, and then cut in when the percentages favour and play or look elsewhere.

Not that I know much just read heaps of books.

Sort of explains it when a pit-boss will change a dealer and order a new shuffle, damn frustrating.

 

For what its worth we try and eek out $100 a night, and go, doesn't sound like much, but we will almost pay for one fare.

Edited December 1, 2016 by mrs and mrs

[pablo222]

It actually doesn't. First the article is 10 years old and technology has drastically changed in that period of time

 

Yes. Even 10 years ago there were networked slot machines

that could be controlled remotely.

 

Do you think technology has decreased?

[rbt001]

So what's the best way to win?:D

 

My brother's girlfriend goes home a winner EVERY time!

 

If we have dinner in the casino, we usually like to play for a bit afterwards. My brother gives his girlfriend $100 for her to play. As she thanks him, she promptly feeds the bill into the slot in her purse, then watches us play!

[rbt001]

This article contradicts you:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/12/technology/from-the-back-office-a-casino-can-change-the-slot-machine-in.html

 

As someone else pointed out, it doesn't. Today, networked machines --which are all of the machines where player cards can be inserted-- SEND information about player statistics. And while the machine is does receive information, none of that has any impact upon the machine.

 

Today, newer machines are designed in casings where all of the display surface is video (name, graphics, theme of the game, payout tables, game rules) so that the machine can EASILY be changed (say from "Blazing 7's" to "Lucky Lions") without the need to insert new panels for themes payouts... since it's all video.

 

Today, to make this change, new software is installed AT the machine and WITH a regulator present. This process does NOT touch the chip.

 

Chips CAN be replaced, so the casino wish to alter the payout percentage. Typically this is NOT done regularly. It does require a regulator to be present. And considering public relations, this is usually done when the casino is closed so that the public cannot see.

 

Chip integrity is critical, as I initially stated yesterday. And after writing that in the morning, I learned more, during my lunchtime visit to my local casino where I one a VERY large jackpot. The casino's policy required six people in attendance and part of the casino's procedure was to open the machine up so that the security camera could actually see the seal (I had heard rumors years ago that the security cameras are sharp enough to read the time from the watch on your wrist) on the chip, confirming that the seal remained in place and was not tampered.

 

Later (after a deposit at the bank) at the other casino I frequent, I shared this with a slot attendant who stated that for jackpots over a certain amount, they do the same examination of the chip.

 

 

As for casinos on ships not being regulated, I cannot believe that it's the case. I will find out and post what I learn.

[davenew]

I've only been on a few cruises, but i have noticed that the slots pay very well the first night of the cruise and somewhat tighten up a bit as the cruise goes on. I've noticed this trend on Princess, Carnival, and Royal Caribbean.

I know that the technology exists in Vegas in hotels like Aria to do complete changes of payouts on their slot machines.

Has anyone experiences something similar?

Oh and the slots are much tighter on Royal Caribbean than they are on Princess and Caribbean.

 

I was actually on a RCCI ship (no names) playing a slot, when a worker with a laptop sat close to me and plugged in to a terminal. He could see every slot and how much it was paying. He then went on to reduce the payouts.

I stopped playing at that point.

 

On a recent Britannia cruise, I went in early on the first sea day, and won £105 for two x 38p bets. I took the money and ran!! Thank you :D