Why HAL dropped Turkey - breaking news and travel warnings

[Windy56]

I don't feel sorry for us missing the port of Istanbul, this year on the world voyage. Who I really feel sorry for are the people of Turkey. A perfect storm is brewing there and I fear that a civil war will erupt in the next five to ten years. The dismal future awaiting the Turkish people is far, far more disturbing than the disappointment travellers will feel about missing out on the opportunity to explore this country. It is very sad. The disruption in travel plans is nothing compared to the hardships that the citizens will most certainly face in the years ahead.

[iancal]

I think the point made about a ship being a target vs safer individual travel is a good one.

 

I believe that a ship our tour is just as much at risk at some other Med ports as it is in Turkey.

 

We have no issue with individual travel in Turkey. We feel that it is as safe as travel to most other European cities and as safe as travel to any large city in the US.

 

We do not wear blindfolds. Terrorism can strike anywhere. New York and Boston proved that. As did London. And it is not only terrorists. Recent history has shown that home grown 'nut bars' can do as much random damage/murders as can organized terrorists.

[Tom O.]

The UK FO site has travel warnings for most of the world. But still most murders happen in the US...

 

Most murders in the U.S. occur in inner cities and are either gang or drug related.

Murders in other parts of the country are usually carried out by someone the victim knows. In many cases, the victim has done something to put themselves in danger. Stranger on stranger murders are very rare, and probably don't occur in the US at a higher rate than anywhere else.

The scary part about terrorism, is that the victims are completely innocent and did nothing to put themselves in danger.

You really cannot compare murder rates to the danger of terrorism.

[cruisemom42]

Most murders in the U.S. occur in inner cities and are either gang or drug related.

Murders in other parts of the country are usually carried out by someone the victim knows. In many cases, the victim has done something to put themselves in danger. Stranger on stranger murders are very rare, and probably don't occur in the US at a higher rate than anywhere else.

The scary part about terrorism, is that the victims are completely innocent and did nothing to put themselves in danger.

You really cannot compare murder rates to the danger of terrorism.

 

Yes, but...

 

Tourism centers in the US have had their share of events: Charleston, Orlando, Boston spring to mind. And of course 9/11 in New York.

 

Like the US, terrorism in Turkey (or indeed any other nation) is most likely to occur where there is opportunity -- big cities, centers of government, tourist areas, transportation hubs.

 

But overall, the chances of any particular tourist on any particular day being impacted remain very, very tiny.

[iancal]

I don't think that you can compare acts of terrorism to murder rates.

 

But that aside, as frequent travelers, we feel just as safe in London, Paris, Barcelona, Nice as we do in any similar size US city. Actually we feel a little safer because the chance of crime may be the same however the chance of violent crime or bodily injury seems higher in the US to us. That is simply a perception and it could well be an incorrect one.

[slidergirl]

Yes, but...

 

Tourism centers in the US have had their share of events: Charleston, Orlando, Boston spring to mind. And of course 9/11 in New York.

 

Like the US, terrorism in Turkey (or indeed any other nation) is most likely to occur where there is opportunity -- big cities, centers of government, tourist areas, transportation hubs.

 

But overall, the chances of any particular tourist on any particular day being impacted remain very, very tiny.

 

You had a far more civil reply to that poster than I would have had.

[Tom O.]

You had a far more civil reply to that poster than I would have had.

 

Hello Slidergirl,

Cruisemom42 was responding to my post. I don't think I said anything irritating, so I assume you were referring to the post that first stated the high US murder rate.

[TAD2005]

I think the point made about a ship being a target vs safer individual travel is a good one.

 

I believe that a ship our tour is just as much at risk at some other Med ports as it is in Turkey.

 

We have no issue with individual travel in Turkey. We feel that it is as safe as travel to most other European cities and as safe as travel to any large city in the US.

 

We do not wear blindfolds. Terrorism can strike anywhere. New York and Boston proved that. As did London. And it is not only terrorists. Recent history has shown that home grown 'nut bars' can do as much random damage/murders as can organized terrorists.

 

Yes, terrorism can happen anywhere, anytime. But saying that you have similar chances of being involved in a terrorism strike in Turkey as in New York is ignoring the odds. Turkey borders Syria, and even in Ankara or Istanbul, you are only hours away by car from ISIS held territory. And, there's a hell of a lot more of them in relative close proximity. So, just by sheer numbers and proximity, a random terrorist attack would be much more likely in Turkey or even Europe, than in the western hemisphere. That's why bookings for individual tourism and cruises in the Med area have plummeted, and a HAL future cruise consultant told us on a very recent cruise that HAL is pulling some of their ships out of the Med, and scheduling them elsewhere in 2017.

 

Yes, the odds of a terrorism attack where you may be touring is extremely rare, but so is catching Ebola, unless you are touring western sub-Sahara Africa, where is was rampant a few years ago.

Edited December 21, 2016 by TAD2005

[cruisemom42]

 

Yes, the odds of a terrorism attack where you may be touring is extremely rare, but so is catching Ebola, unless you are touring western sub-Sahara Africa, where is was rampant a few years ago.

 

Not a great analogy. The spread of a virulent disease has a pattern that's not at all like the spread of terrorism. Much, much greater odds of catching Ebola if you are anywhere in the hot zone.

 

BTW, I'm not going to argue that there isn't potentially a greater risk of terrorism in Turkey. But the overall probability is so low to start with that even if it is tripled, you still probably face greater odds of winning the lottery than being involved in a terrorist attack. Especially when you take into account that a good many of the reported terrorism attacks in Turkey are not related to any ISIS threat but are a result of the decades-long problems between Turkey and her Kurdish population -- and those attacks (by PKK) are primarily aimed at Turkish police and Turkish government installations. Not very likely to impact tourists.

 

It also seems to me that terrorism has morphed into being more of a "lone wolf" situation. Who can predict when or where someone will bomb an airport (Brussels), plow a truck into innocent people (France, Germany), or set off a bomb at a marathon (Boston)?

[RocketMan275]

Not a great analogy. The spread of a virulent disease has a pattern that's not at all like the spread of terrorism. Much, much greater odds of catching Ebola if you are anywhere in the hot zone.

 

The hot zone for terrorism is in the Middle East, spreading to Europe, and expanding to the US.

 

BTW, I'm not going to argue that there isn't potentially a greater risk of terrorism in Turkey. But the overall probability is so low to start with that even if it is tripled, you still probably face greater odds of winning the lottery than being involved in a terrorist attack. Especially when you take into account that a good many of the reported terrorism attacks in Turkey are not related to any ISIS threat but are a result of the decades-long problems between Turkey and her Kurdish population -- and those attacks (by PKK) are primarily aimed at Turkish police and Turkish government installations. Not very likely to impact tourists.

 

Terrorists will attack tourists if it helps their agenda. For example, the attacks on tourists in Egypt.

 

It also seems to me that terrorism has morphed into being more of a "lone wolf" situation. Who can predict when or where someone will bomb an airport (Brussels), plow a truck into innocent people (France, Germany), or set off a bomb at a marathon (Boston)?

 

These are not random events. They are predictable. Perhaps not specific times and locations but the events surely are.

[cruisemom42]

The hot zone for terrorism is in the Middle East, spreading to Europe, and expanding to the US.

 

Sure -- but my point is that you cannot compare the danger of catching Ebola in an endemic area with the danger of being involved in a terrorist event in Turkey. Completely different kinds of risks and events.

 

Terrorists will attack tourists if it helps their agenda. For example, the attacks on tourists in Egypt.

 

I never said they wouldn't. My comment was related to the fact that NOT ALL terrorist events in Turkey target tourists.

 

 

are not random events. They are predictable. Perhaps not specific times and locations but the events surely are.

 

You lose me here. Predictable in what sense? In the sense that we understand a terrorist might target events like the ones I listed? Well, sure. But then is one supposed to avoid all airports, train stations, outdoor events, tourist attractions, government buildings, and so on.... on the chance that they will be unlucky enough to be there on the one day out of 365 in the one city (out of hundreds that might harbor terrorists) at the one site out of dozens that might be targeted??

[slidergirl]

Hello Slidergirl,

Cruisemom42 was responding to my post. I don't think I said anything irritating, so I assume you were referring to the post that first stated the high US murder rate.

 

The inferences about "inner city", "gangs" and "drugs"... The "inner city" and "drug related" were used quite a bit this Fall as a euphemism by certain candidates running for national office to imply certain racial groups. But, if I remember, Salt Lake City, Ogden, Provo, St. George do not have an "inner city" like most heterogeneous cities in the US. But, I'd watch my step out in parts of the suburbs of South and West Jordan and Taylorsville. And the meth-infested parts of Eastern Summit County ;-)

Edited December 21, 2016 by slidergirl

[Tom O.]

Utah is my retirement home. I lived all my life in the Los Angeles area, including my first 22 years in Compton, so I am familiar with inner cities. I am just saying that in the US most areas are just as safe as Europe because most murders occur in just a few areas.

I certainly feel safer here in Cedar City, than I ever did in So. California.

By avoiding high crime areas, and a dangerous lifestyle, you can feel safe. But terrorism, which as other posters mentioned, is not related to murder rates.

[Tom O.]

The inferences about "inner city", "gangs" and "drugs"... The "inner city" and "drug related" were used quite a bit this Fall as a euphemism by certain candidates running for national office to imply certain racial groups. But, if I remember, Salt Lake City, Ogden, Provo, St. George do not have an "inner city" like most heterogeneous cities in the US. But, I'd watch my step out in parts of the suburbs of South and West Jordan and Taylorsville. And the meth-infested parts of Eastern Summit County ;-)

 

Here are some examples of murder rates, I gleaned from the FBI web site. They are from 2010, so they are a little out of date:

 

City Murder Rate per 100,000 Pop.

Compton, CA 27

Inglewood, CA 18

Las Vegas, NV 8

Cedar City, UT 7

St. George, UT 0

Salt Lake City, UT 4

South Jordon, UT 0

Taylorsville, UT 3

West Jordon, UT 1

St. Louis, MO 41

Edited December 22, 2016 by Tom O.