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Carnival Stock Down


mcrcruiser
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Morgan Stanley analyst just came out with the report that the cruise industry will slow into the 4th quarter (Carnival just reported higher earnings ) & higher fuel costs (both the cruise industry & airline industry hedge their fuel costs into the future contracts )

 

Personally ,I think this temporary dip represents a good buy into this stock .also ,Carnival corp has issued a huge buy back of their stock ;which means less shares on the open market

 

You can google today : Why has Carnival stock gone down . you can then read the reports

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From what I read today, the short term stock price will be impacted by oil prices. So, if you expect oil to drop, you should buy CCL. If you expect them to increase, hold off buying. Remember, CCL stock has run up quite a bit over the past 2-3 months, from $57+ to around $67 (around 17-18%).

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"it is far better to own wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." ~ the Wondrous Buffett

 

If you are going to own Carnival Cruises shares - at least in part because you anticipate discounts on future cruises and you'll be cruising for the next 10 years - then does it matter if you bought 100 shares for $6378 (the price today), or $6440 (the price last year) - especially since you would have picked up a tidy $200 in dividends?

 

My advice: buy when you have the money to put to work, because you can never predict the price of a company.

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If your own more than 100 shares (for the OBC) then over the last 10 years, RCL has actually been a better investment. Its gone from ~$41 to over $130 in that time, while CCL has only gone from ~$45 to $64. The prime investment opportunity to buy would have been in 2009/10 during the Great Recession when there were ~$15-$25 and $5- $15 range respectively (CCL/RCL).

 

For this reason, I own only the 100 share of CCL for the OBC and a bit more than the required 100 of RCL.

 

Cheers,

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