Here is what I believe NCL's reopening pricing plan will be, once things get going again

[Mrdodgy]

32 minutes ago, msmayor said:

 

As a supervisor who approves vacations and helps manage the time off balances of the entire Company, that sort of request will not fly this year.  It might work in a 'normal' year, but the fact is that right now people aren't taking vacations.  They can't go anywhere, so why burn the time?

 

No, many people are saving their time to use later in the year when they are free to move about.

 

We've already warned our entire staff that they need to plan NOW for the time they want, and get their requests in, because we will be in a position this year to deny requests to keep staffing levels right.  Normal year we've never had issues, but this year we expect a lot of people are going to want to take off at the same time, and we cannot allow that to happen.  

 

People are also told that once their request is approved, if they need to change not to expect that the change will be approved.

Well that would be constructive dismissal in the UK or a strike. We have a minimum of 4 week (and most 5)   vacation and 12 i believe if you are a London Tube Driver. I can tell you denial of holiday requests would not work for us and indeed keeping staff levels right would be the employers issue. The thought of denying holiday requests gives me the shivers or a trip to the employment tribunal .

[NutsAboutGolf]

35 minutes ago, Mrdodgy said:

Well that would be constructive dismissal in the UK or a strike. We have a minimum of 4 week (and most 5)   vacation and 12 i believe if you are a London Tube Driver. I can tell you denial of holiday requests would not work for us and indeed keeping staff levels right would be the employers issue. The thought of denying holiday requests gives me the shivers or a trip to the employment tribunal .

 

My overall point was, communicate; don't just assume you can't go on a sailing in the next few weeks.  Again, communicate!  Ask what it would take to go on a cruise with little notice with a specific timeframe.  Most situations would be different and another idea would be to pick one week but leave it open the week before and after.  As I stated, make it hard for the approvers to say no 🙂

Edited April 18, 2020 by NutsAboutGolf

[8420PR]

42 minutes ago, Mrdodgy said:

Well that would be constructive dismissal in the UK or a strike.

 

Not strictly true.  At a simple level, in the UK all employers have to do is ensure employees can take all their holiday.  Some employers are making employees take holiday during the corona period, to reduce the outstanding balance when people return to work.

https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights/booking-time-off-

 

 

Back on topic:  My guess is NCL have a list of proposals to generate onboard spend that they previously thought too outrageous, but will now implement, using this crisis as the excuse.   Cruise fares will be what the market can support, and similar strategies that worked pre-Corona will be used afterwards to maximize fares (i.e. price drops after final payment).  But they will try to reduce what is included in the cruise fare, and maximize the onboard spend (which also mitigates the FCC issue).

 

Pay to use sun-loungers?  Pay for main restaurants?   Pay for theater shows?  

Edited April 18, 2020 by 8420PR

[NutsAboutGolf]

They are creative as they're trying to attract millennials so we have to give them more credit than that 😄

 

1 hour ago, 8420PR said:

Pay to use sun-loungers?

 

"For your convenience, all non-reserved sun-loungers remain COMPLIMENTARY!  Please see the staff to reserve your sun-loungers by the hour!"

  

1 hour ago, 8420PR said:

Pay for main restaurants?

 

"For your convenience, we have expanded our menu to include COMPLIMENTARY selections such as meatloaf, hot dogs, pizza and burgers!  We still offer the classics you enjoy, please ask your server for the current market pricing!"

 

1 hour ago, 8420PR said:

Pay for theater shows?  

 

"For your convenience, all NON-reserved theater shows seats remain COMPLIMENTARY!  To reserve your theater seat for the show, please contact NCL reservations at 125 days out!"

Edited April 18, 2020 by NutsAboutGolf

[mianmike]

11 hours ago, pokerpro5 said:

I have been extensively been studying the cruise industry pricing model over the years, especially NCL, and have an excellent record regarding predicting pricing trends.

 

 

I agree with the majority of your analysis.  My interest will be to see what kind of creative ways they will use to increase onboard spent.  The obvious choice is to target gamblers with deals. 

 

Del Rio has stated that people who take advantage of free or reduced air promo typically have considerably higher onboard spent.  Del Rio talking Free Air and Reduced Price promo: "The offerings strategically focus on capturing more long-haul guests -- reinforcing our strategy of sourcing the highest quality, as long-haul guests tend to be higher paying consumers both in ticket purchase and in onboard spend versus short-haul drive cruise customers."  So will the air promo return?

 

Del Rio will try to keep ticket prices high as long as he can.  “We see a direct correlation between when you have high ticket pricing, you also see high onboard revenue,” he said. “Customers who have money to spend on tickets have money to spend onboard."

 

I'm sure NCL headquarters is working feverishly trying to figure out ways to maintain higher prices (addition of Club Suite) and increase onboard spend especially for those who booked via FCC.   

[ellasmomanddad]

19 minutes ago, mianmike said:

The obvious choice is to target gamblers with deals. 

Guilty, won 1500 on day 1 lost that plus much more but casino at seas offers me stuff all the time. My first ncl experience was thru a casino.

[NutsAboutGolf]

31 minutes ago, mianmike said:

 

I agree with the majority of your analysis.  My interest will be to see what kind of creative ways they will use to increase onboard spent.  The obvious choice is to target gamblers with deals. 

 

Del Rio has stated that people who take advantage of free or reduced air promo typically have considerably higher onboard spent.  Del Rio talking Free Air and Reduced Price promo: "The offerings strategically focus on capturing more long-haul guests -- reinforcing our strategy of sourcing the highest quality, as long-haul guests tend to be higher paying consumers both in ticket purchase and in onboard spend versus short-haul drive cruise customers."  So will the air promo return?

 

Del Rio will try to keep ticket prices high as long as he can.  “We see a direct correlation between when you have high ticket pricing, you also see high onboard revenue,” he said. “Customers who have money to spend on tickets have money to spend onboard."

 

I'm sure NCL headquarters is working feverishly trying to figure out ways to maintain higher prices (addition of Club Suite) and increase onboard spend especially for those who booked via FCC.   

 

I'm a high roller and do not see NCL doing anything to make things more attractive to gamblers in the casino which is a third party.   If gamblers were the key, why didn't NCL (or any other line) create a gamblers only ship/cruise line and get filthily rich?  IMO the truth is, liberally offer the alcohol perk and hopefully many will lose it at slots.  All gambling, including NCL, is based on theo-loss, at any time, they can change that and only allow those who lose and exclude those who win.

Edited April 18, 2020 by NutsAboutGolf

[mianmike]

2 minutes ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

I'm a high roller and do not see NCL doing anything to make things more attractive to gamblers in the casino which is a third party.   If gamblers were the key, why didn't NCL (or any other line) create a gamblers only ship/cruise line?  IMO the truth is, liberally offer the alcohol perk and hopefully many will lose it at slots

 

To attract fresh meat NCL has offered people "free" (they charge a $20/day admin fee) on select cruises through MyVegas video games/apps.  We twice took advantage and the casino was packed.  Can't guarantee a direct cause and effect, but I'm sure NCL has tracked play and so far had not discontinued the promo.     

[ellasmomanddad]

7 minutes ago, mianmike said:

We twice took advantage and the casino was packed

That’s what always cracked me up about the anti smoking post. NCL doesn’t care the casino is packed.

[mildew1951]

1 hour ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

They are creative as they're trying to attract millennials so we have to give them more credit than that 😄

 

 

"For your convenience, all non-reserved sun-loungers remain COMPLIMENTARY!  Please see the staff to reserve your sun-loungers by the hour!"

  

 

"For your convenience, we have expanded our menu to include COMPLIMENTARY selections such as meatloaf, hot dogs, pizza and burgers!  We still offer the classics you enjoy, please ask your server for the current market pricing!"

 

 

"For your convenience, all NON-reserved theater shows seats remain COMPLIMENTARY!  To reserve your theater seat for the show, please contact NCL reservations at 125 days out!"

Wash your mouth out. You'll give them ideas:)

[ellasmomanddad]

2 minutes ago, mildew1951 said:

Wash your mouth out. You'll give them ideas:)

Unfortunately we all know the poster might be correct. 

[Travelling2Some]

6 hours ago, ray98 said:

. . . which means dropping the prices to the market standard.  Once you do that then all the people using the credits will have the time to have their rates adjusted.

I don't disagree with you at all but wanted to point out that many (most?) of the cruising public have no idea you can get price drops.  While we CCer's regard these things as common knowledge, I have found that even frequent cruisers among my acquaintances have no idea.   I'm sure the cruise lines are counting on keeping  most of the recipients of FCCs in ignorance regarding their eligibility for price drops.  When NCL announced Peace of Mind I did assume prices would jump to cover their sudden generosity.  A "free lunch" is always quite suspicious!

[Mrdodgy]

3 hours ago, 8420PR said:

 

Not strictly true.  At a simple level, in the UK all employers have to do is ensure employees can take all their holiday.  Some employers are making employees take holiday during the corona period, to reduce the outstanding balance when people return to work.

https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights/booking-time-off-

 

 

Back on topic:  My guess is NCL have a list of proposals to generate onboard spend that they previously thought too outrageous, but will now implement, using this crisis as the excuse.   Cruise fares will be what the market can support, and similar strategies that worked pre-Corona will be used afterwards to maximize fares (i.e. price drops after final payment).  But they will try to reduce what is included in the cruise fare, and maximize the onboard spend (which also mitigates the FCC issue).

 

Pay to use sun-loungers?  Pay for main restaurants?   Pay for theater shows?  

I presume you are UK based. Read the advice. You only have to give 4 weeks notice for a two week vacation. We wanted to  force holidays at this time and our lawyers have told us that we can do it. If we deny holiday to a family parent in school holidays it is constructive dismissal or bullying. 

[GlamorousGirl]

I don’t know about these “last minute deals.” I booked one 2 days prior to sailing, when the cruise wasn’t even up on their website anymore so the cabin I booked probably would have gone unsold.  (I saw it on the site in the morning but wanted to think about it. When I checked back later the cruise was gone, so I just called.) I ended up with an odd shaped, cramped cabin next to a noisy back room at a higher price than I would ordinarily pay booking much further in advance. 

[NutsAboutGolf]

Lol, I could tell them exactly how to save money and attract millennials:

 

1)  Casino, "Deposit $250 (in the TCs, actually spend it), get $250 and a specialty dinner" gamble and receive; whatever the numbers are, they should offer a clearly advertised "offer"

 2)  MDR premium, high fee for the first person, low substituent for additional people; MDR, filet mignon and lobster, $24.99/one, $5/person more.  Marketing trick.  Force your family and/or strangers to buy it; will usually only be one or two people, if it's strangers perhaps they'll connect!

3)  Peak time lido food, push around a cart with pizza and hot dogs on the lido deck, many will eat them because it's offered to them, thus won't eat as much at their next meal

4) $5 happy hour, 5pm-530pm ANY sub-$50 bottle drink, while discounted, you get fellow passengers to connect.  Perhaps they'll be "primed" to buy expensive wine during dinner

5)  Bingo and specialty dining, buy bingo (horrible odds) get a free specialty dining dinner!  Offer this online

 

I could go on and on, yet most things are "pro-active" offers are on the front end and which saves the ship money later.  Nothing I said hasn't brought up before in the past three decades, it all comes down to the current Board of Directors green-lighting the bean-counter suggestions 🙂

Edited April 19, 2020 by NutsAboutGolf

[pokerpro5]

3 hours ago, ellasmomanddad said:

Guilty, won 1500 on day 1 lost that plus much more but casino at seas offers me stuff all the time. My first ncl experience was thru a casino.

 

I'm happy for you, but I hope you quit gambling in the NCL casino, because the odds are way, way against you -- far worse than their land-based counterparts.

 

The NCL casino doesn't exist to give money away.

 

Signed,

A professional gambler

[pokerpro5]

1 hour ago, GlamorousGirl said:

I don’t know about these “last minute deals.” I booked one 2 days prior to sailing, when the cruise wasn’t even up on their website anymore so the cabin I booked probably would have gone unsold.  (I saw it on the site in the morning but wanted to think about it. When I checked back later the cruise was gone, so I just called.) I ended up with an odd shaped, cramped cabin next to a noisy back room at a higher price than I would ordinarily pay booking much further in advance. 

 

Correct.  Some of the so-called "last minute deals" promoted on the site are exactly this -- not-so-great deals which stuff you into the last few cabins left on the ship.

 

That's why I advocate price-watching starting from the 90-day mark before sailing, as you will typically get the best prices between the 30-90 day mark prior to sailing, and there will be sufficient inventory to where you aren't stuck in the worst cabins on the ship.

 

The problem is that a lot of people don't understand what truly is a "good deal" on a cruise ship.  If you're paying anywhere near the price you'd have paid before final payment date, it 's NOT a good deal.

 

Here's an example of an actual good deal:  On my last cruise, I got an inside cabin on deck 11 (very close to my first room, a balcony cabin) for $249 with the single supplement fee waived, plus one free-at-sea choice.

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by pokerpro5

[Mrdodgy]

4 minutes ago, pokerpro5 said:

 

I'm happy for you, but I hope you quit gambling in the NCL casino, because the odds are way, way against you -- far worse than their land-based counterparts.

 

The NCL casino doesn't exist to give money away.

 

Signed,

A professional gambler

Does any casino? Without going off topic I agree with you. If NCL comp a cruise it has to be for a reason. Basic business model . Look at the square footage covered versus income generated from it. That's why the casinos are so big. 

 

As you know loads of tables one payout booth!!

[pokerpro5]

2 hours ago, Travelling2Some said:

which means dropping the prices to the market standard.  Once you do that then all the people using the credits will have the time to have their rates adjusted.

 

I don't disagree with you at all but wanted to point out that many (most?) of the cruising public have no idea you can get price drops.  While we CCer's regard these things as common knowledge, I have found that even frequent cruisers among my acquaintances have no idea.   I'm sure the cruise lines are counting on keeping  most of the recipients of FCCs in ignorance regarding their eligibility for price drops.  When NCL announced Peace of Mind I did assume prices would jump to cover their sudden generosity.  A "free lunch" is always quite suspicious!

 

Almost all of the substantial price drops occur AFTER final payment date, so the suckers who booked for high prices are stuck.

 

This is why those booking now with FCCs, figuring, "Well, if it drops, I'll just rebook at the new rate" are missing the point.  It won't drop until you can't rebook.

[pokerpro5]

7 hours ago, ray98 said:

 

Except they can't reliably fill the ships up last minute, especially in the after final payment time frame.  Many times they struggle with that even with the limited inventory left over after a cruise has been on the market 2 years.  Vacations just require too much planning if you aren't within driving distance of the port.

 

lol what???

 

Of course they can reliably fill the ships after final payment.  We're talking about 120 days, and 90 days in the 50% penalty phase.  That's a fairly long time.  They've been "filling the ship" this way for many years.

 

The lower the price, the quicker the ship fills.  For example, if they gave away cruises for $1, they could fill an entire ship within a matter of hours.  Yes, that's obviously an extreme example, but to say they can't fill empty cabins by lowering prices 3 months before sailing is absurd.

 

And yes, plenty of people farther than driving distance can plan a cruise 1-3 months away, myself included.

Edited April 19, 2020 by pokerpro5

[Mrdodgy]

2 minutes ago, pokerpro5 said:

 

lol what???

 

Of course they can reliably fill the ships after final payment.  We're talking about 120 days, and 90 days in the 50% penalty phase.  That's a fairly long time.  They've been "filling the ship" this way for many years.

 

The lower the price, the quicker the ship fills.  For example, if they gave away cruises for $1, they could fill an entire ship within a matter of hours.  Yes, that's obviously an extreme example, but to say they can't fill empty cabins by lowering prices 3 months before sailing is absurd.

 

And yes, plenty of people farther than driving distance can plan a cruise 1-3 months away, myself included.

We are on the same page 

[pokerpro5]

11 minutes ago, Mrdodgy said:

Does any casino? Without going off topic I agree with you. If NCL comp a cruise it has to be for a reason. Basic business model . Look at the square footage covered versus income generated from it. That's why the casinos are so big. 

 

As you know loads of tables one payout booth!!

 

Yes, all casinos have the edge and everyone will be a long time loser, unless they engage in what is known as "advantage play" (which requires a lot of work, knowledge, and painstaking analysis to pull off).

 

However, cruise ship casinos (not just NCL) are notoriously bad, as their slots are tight, video poker machines have bad paytables, and table games have bad rules.  Even the poker, which you play against others, is raked FAR more heavily than land-based casinos, to where I won't even bother playing despite usually weak competition.

 

To those who enjoy gambling onboard, have fun, but be aware you the odds are more against you than they are in Vegas, and you're going to get creamed if you play long enough.  You can't beat mathematics.

[ellasmomanddad]

44 minutes ago, pokerpro5 said:

I'm happy for you, but I hope you quit gambling in the NCL casino, because the odds are way, way against you -- far worse than their land-based counterparts.

I know that but a gamblers a gambler you get hot then creamed. On a cruise I’m far more conservative than my home tables.

  That particular cruise was very boring bad weather nothing to do so I spent way more time in the safe then most cruises. I also only booked a “comped cruise” once because I found it to be more expensive with fees then if I booked it separately.

Edited April 19, 2020 by ellasmomanddad

[Travelling2Some]

28 minutes ago, pokerpro5 said:

 

Almost all of the substantial price drops occur AFTER final payment date, so the suckers who booked for high prices are stuck.

 

This is why those booking now with FCCs, figuring, "Well, if it drops, I'll just rebook at the new rate" are missing the point.  It won't drop until you can't rebook.

Still no argument here.  You are correct on both points.  Only wanted to point out that most of the cruising public is not so on top of things, which enables the cruise lines to factor in that they will get away with quite a bit when they are constructing their marketing models. 

[Mrdodgy]

1 minute ago, pokerpro5 said:

 

Yes, all casinos have the edge and everyone will be a long time loser, unless they engage in what is known as "advantage play" (which requires a lot of work, knowledge, and painstaking analysis to pull off).

 

However, cruise ship casinos (not just NCL) are notoriously bad, as their slots are tight, video poker machines have bad paytables, and table games have bad rules.  Even the poker, which you play against others, is raked FAR more heavily than land-based casinos, to where I won't even bother playing despite usually weak competition.

 

To those who enjoy gambling onboard, have fun, but be aware you the odds are more against you than they are in Vegas, and you're going to get creamed if you play long enough.  You can't beat mathematics.

Thank you for the really informative answer - my next door neighbour (old) plays BJ in the UK and the hours he spends playing and practising is testimony of what you say but he does have some big wins and I presume losses!!!