Here is what I believe NCL's reopening pricing plan will be, once things get going again

[csopi]

All of this is pure speculation.

Many people will be very reluctant to go on a cruise for quite some time.
It is not fun not knowing when you will be allowed off your ship or how many are sick on it. I was lucky we were only floating around Miami for an extra 16 hours before they let us off.

Many people will have lost a lot of their income and jobs, so cruising or vacations will not be a high priority.

I am not into predicting anything, but I doubt it will be business as usual. Cruise lines will have to compete for the reduced number of people willing to go on a cruise.

[Travelling2Some]

Of course it is all speculation.  I think we all understand that.  There is nothing wrong with people speculating/discussing what may or may not happen with cruising.  That being said, I appreciate you bringing up the massive public relations problem the industry is up against.  We mostly take land trips and I follow several travel forums.  The negativity directed at cruising on those boards is pretty overwhelming.  The general attitude is "I've never been on one of those big bad cruise ships and, see I was right!   Of course I would NEVER even consider going on a cruise after this!"  This is going to be a huge factor to overcome for the cruise lines.

[mianmike]

3 hours ago, pokerpro5 said:

 

Yes, all casinos have the edge and everyone will be a long time loser, unless they engage in what is known as "advantage play" (which requires a lot of work, knowledge, and painstaking analysis to pull off).

 

However, cruise ship casinos (not just NCL) are notoriously bad, as their slots are tight, video poker machines have bad paytables, and table games have bad rules.  Even the poker, which you play against others, is raked FAR more heavily than land-based casinos, to where I won't even bother playing despite usually weak competition.

 

To those who enjoy gambling onboard, have fun, but be aware you the odds are more against you than they are in Vegas, and you're going to get creamed if you play long enough.  You can't beat mathematics.

 

10/7 DB video poker player here.  In the late 1990's and early 2000's we did quite well with the generous cashback, comps, scratch cards and double four-of-a-kind promos.  Human nature begets greed and the full-time local pros killed the golden goose.  Now we just play for comps. 

[msmayor]

23 hours ago, Mrdodgy said:

Well that would be constructive dismissal in the UK or a strike. We have a minimum of 4 week (and most 5)   vacation and 12 i believe if you are a London Tube Driver. I can tell you denial of holiday requests would not work for us and indeed keeping staff levels right would be the employers issue. The thought of denying holiday requests gives me the shivers or a trip to the employment tribunal .

 

Let me clarify - I'm not saying denial without the opportunity to take vacation.  I'm saying denial of the specific week or period of time, and telling employees "Sorry, but there are already enough employees out that week...you need to choose another time".

 

There are many, many employers who have a limit on the number of people who can have an approved vacation at any given time.  Businesses generally need a minimum number of employees in-house to operate effectively.  I have a staff of four, and the most that can be out at any given time to operate effectively is two.  If I've already approved a week's vacation for two of the four and a third comes to me wanting a last-minute week off at the same time, I'm saying no...choose another week.

 

 

[msmayor]

22 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

My overall point was, communicate; don't just assume you can't go on a sailing in the next few weeks.  Again, communicate!  Ask what it would take to go on a cruise with little notice with a specific timeframe.  Most situations would be different and another idea would be to pick one week but leave it open the week before and after.  As I stated, make it hard for the approvers to say no 🙂

 

I would have no trouble saying No.  I've already warned all my employees that last-minute vacations may not be possible and they need to be prepared for the inability to take last-minute time off.  If I've already got the maximum number of people with an approved vacation on a specific week, I have no room to approve any more.

 

I'd tell the employee who has this awesome last-minute deal to talk to the others who already have approved time.  If one of them wants to switch, fine...but if those with already-approved time can't or won't switch, I don't care how good of a deal the employee looking for time off has.

[Shawnino]

17 hours ago, csopi said:

All of this is pure speculation.

Many people will be very reluctant to go on a cruise for quite some time.
It is not fun not knowing when you will be allowed off your ship or how many are sick on it. I was lucky we were only floating around Miami for an extra 16 hours before they let us off.

Many people will have lost a lot of their income and jobs, so cruising or vacations will not be a high priority.

I am not into predicting anything, but I doubt it will be business as usual. Cruise lines will have to compete for the reduced number of people willing to go on a cruise.

 

Yes it's speculation but if you read PP5's past stuff, it's usually spot on.

[csopi]

 
Yes it's speculation but if you read PP5's past stuff, it's usually spot on.

I doubt any of his past stuff were during a virus pandemic or speculation on what would happen after it is over.

Basing current situation on past stuff is totally ridiculous.
Yes it is good to speculate for the sake of discussion and his is just as good as any other.

[onetimearoundtheworld]

57 minutes ago, msmayor said:

There are many, many employers who have a limit on the number of people who can have an approved vacation at any given time.  Businesses generally need a minimum number of employees in-house to operate effectively.  I have a staff of four, and the most that can be out at any given time to operate effectively is two.  If I've already approved a week's vacation for two of the four and a third comes to me wanting a last-minute week off at the same time, I'm saying no...choose another week.

 

It always depends for whom the employment contract is more valuable. Sure the employer can say no but the business might end up with 3 staff members which could end up even worse if one has a approved vacation and you then have someone getting sick 😉

[Mrdodgy]

1 hour ago, msmayor said:

 

Let me clarify - I'm not saying denial without the opportunity to take vacation.  I'm saying denial of the specific week or period of time, and telling employees "Sorry, but there are already enough employees out that week...you need to choose another time".

 

There are many, many employers who have a limit on the number of people who can have an approved vacation at any given time.  Businesses generally need a minimum number of employees in-house to operate effectively.  I have a staff of four, and the most that can be out at any given time to operate effectively is two.  If I've already approved a week's vacation for two of the four and a third comes to me wanting a last-minute week off at the same time, I'm saying no...choose another week.

 

 

Thanks but in the UK the tribunal will find for the employee in most cases. our employments laws are all about employee protection. For instance we could not stop 4 out of a team of 5 going away together. It was there right. In fact we had the European court of human rights quoted!!! I respect your views but do not believe everything verbatim  you read on the gov website. 

 

Please the UK labour laws are very very different to the US. But I repeat you are right but at a previous firm the employees controlled.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Mrdodgy

[Buford T Justiice]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2020 at 10:21 AM, Até said:

What do you think will happen if the cruise lines are forced to reduce their ship's capacity for a while before they are allowed to go back to normal full ships?  I keep seeing the 50% number thrown around in conversations regarding the cruise line's plans to meet the restrictions they will likely have to meet in the near future.

 

I agree.  I think the cruise lines would be wise to slowly increase guest volume... Let the first limited number of socially distanced cruisers come back from a great time ... healthy. It will take a time to ramp up staffing as well... (Will the staff have to pre quarantine before being allowed to work?) But I agree with the OP's premise: cruise fares will remain high while (1) there is limited capacity, (2) everyone seeks to use future cruise credits from cancelled cruises and (3) those with regularly expiring FCCs want to use them up. 

[drvmywifecrzy]

Looks like new pricing to be released on Wednesday in conjunction with next wave of cancellations

 

[NutsAboutGolf]

6 hours ago, msmayor said:

 

I would have no trouble saying No.  I've already warned all my employees that last-minute vacations may not be possible and they need to be prepared for the inability to take last-minute time off.  If I've already got the maximum number of people with an approved vacation on a specific week, I have no room to approve any more.

 

I'd tell the employee who has this awesome last-minute deal to talk to the others who already have approved time.  If one of them wants to switch, fine...but if those with already-approved time can't or won't switch, I don't care how good of a deal the employee looking for time off has.

 

I understand you don't have any problem saying no and understand there are many employers will say no.  You just "communicated" to me that if another employee has that week off, it will be a no and that's my point, to communicate.  We identified the condition that two employees can't be off during the same week by communicating.  I'm simply trying to offer value to those who read this.  Communicate with your employer to determine if there are conditions; it won't work with every employer.    🙂

[graphicguy]

I think it’s fruitless to try to peer in the crystal ball.  No one can predict when this will finally subside, when ports will open, or which ones, how cruising will look, or even which cruise companies will train solvent.

 

In short, no one knows!

[Budget Queen]

On 4/18/2020 at 8:53 PM, pokerpro5 said:

 

 

 

 

Here's an example of an actual good deal:  On my last cruise, I got an inside cabin on deck 11 (very close to my first room, a balcony cabin) for $249 with the single supplement fee waived, plus one free-at-sea choice.

 

This essentially means little.     What ship,  what itinerary,  how many days???     And was it NCL?    

[mscdivina2016]

On 4/18/2020 at 8:53 PM, pokerpro5 said:

 

Correct.  Some of the so-called "last minute deals" promoted on the site are exactly this -- not-so-great deals which stuff you into the last few cabins left on the ship.

 

That's why I advocate price-watching starting from the 90-day mark before sailing, as you will typically get the best prices between the 30-90 day mark prior to sailing, and there will be sufficient inventory to where you aren't stuck in the worst cabins on the ship.

 

The problem is that a lot of people don't understand what truly is a "good deal" on a cruise ship.  If you're paying anywhere near the price you'd have paid before final payment date, it 's NOT a good deal.

 

Here's an example of an actual good deal:  On my last cruise, I got an inside cabin on deck 11 (very close to my first room, a balcony cabin) for $249 with the single supplement fee waived, plus one free-at-sea choice.

 

Well I have been sitting on the side lines and I think your analysis is OK based on the standard products.

 A cruise that sails from point A to Point A on a weekly basis would fit what you are saying, but specialty cruises are the exact opposite.

I as a rule go on longer repo cruises ( not trans) usually B2b2B. These tend to fill up quick and the prices also seem to go up not down so I always try and grab them the 1st hour they appear. I am waiting for 2022 to be released.

 On my last 3 long cruises they all went up in price.

 Right now with the extra 20% off I have managed to grab really decent deals on a 45 night and a 36 night. I doubt anyone could touch them now and even after final payment. Lastly Airfare is a concern so you can't wait last minute for half way around the world cruises.

 You mentioned your $249 above? Can you elaborate? I would like to play.😄 How long was cruise? What was total out the door including everything?

Steve

 

[pghflyer]

Generally agree with the points here - there is going to be much more capacity than demand.   We normally just straight up book the balcony room we want, but I have always wondered if I should be booking those low inside rates (or maybe a more tolerable ocean view) and bidding up instead. Of course, the real terrifying risk of the ship selling out or bid not being accepted and staying in such a room is troublesome........

[latserrof]

Not disputing, but curious the bases for OP's assertions that:

 

1. Passengers who pay lower fares tend to spend less aboard

 

2. Upcoming supply will exceed demand in the near-term (if there is one)

 

?

 

Thx

[ellasmomanddad]

4 minutes ago, latserrof said:

1. Passengers who pay lower fares tend to spend less aboard

 If your searching for cheap rates or waiting for the lowest price vs someone who identifies a cruise as once in a lifetime. Imo the once in a lifetime person is going to go all out the cheap fare person most likely has 3 more booked.
 

 

[mscdivina2016]

1 hour ago, latserrof said:

 

1. Passengers who pay lower fares tend to spend less aboard

 

 

1 hour ago, ellasmomanddad said:

 If your searching for cheap rates or waiting for the lowest price vs someone who identifies a cruise as once in a lifetime. Imo the once in a lifetime person is going to go all out the cheap fare person most likely has 3 more booked.
 

I actually can identify with both those statements. I have 9 booked now I think.

We don't spend anything on board. We do get the Booze package and always a Balcony.

I have done 59 cruises so far. The days of shopping,photos,spa, arcade,or even excursions we no longer do with the cruise line. We always book privately.

The restaurants...We usually get a dining package thrown in, we are Platinum plus so that 4 more meals per cruise.

My last cruise this past February, all we bought was 2 Gelato's. Our total bill was under $10 I think (DSC excluded)

Steve

[ellasmomanddad]

4 minutes ago, mscdivina2016 said:

My last cruise this past February, all we bought was 2 Gelato's. Our total bill was under $10 I think (DSC excluded)

Ours was $50 I think, maybe 40 all cork fees from wine we bought on shore. 

[momof3cruisers]

On 4/18/2020 at 1:31 PM, msmayor said:

 

As a supervisor who approves vacations and helps manage the time off balances of the entire Company, that sort of request will not fly this year.  It might work in a 'normal' year, but the fact is that right now people aren't taking vacations.  They can't go anywhere, so why burn the time?

 

No, many people are saving their time to use later in the year when they are free to move about.

 

We've already warned our entire staff that they need to plan NOW for the time they want, and get their requests in, because we will be in a position this year to deny requests to keep staffing levels right.  Normal year we've never had issues, but this year we expect a lot of people are going to want to take off at the same time, and we cannot allow that to happen.  

 

People are also told that once their request is approved, if they need to change not to expect that the change will be approved.

This was my thought as well. My husband’s boss would laugh in his face if he gave him that kind of vacation hold. And even if the boss allowed it, his fellow employees would be irate. Can’t take a vacation in July or August because John Smith “might be gone.” I don’t think so, 

[momof3cruisers]

4 hours ago, pghflyer said:

Generally agree with the points here - there is going to be much more capacity than demand.   We normally just straight up book the balcony room we want, but I have always wondered if I should be booking those low inside rates (or maybe a more tolerable ocean view) and bidding up instead. Of course, the real terrifying risk of the ship selling out or bid not being accepted and staying in such a room is troublesome........

My fear these days for anything less than a balcony, is that IF you get quarantined for any reason, an inside cabin would be awful. I won’t even be booking an ocean view for the foreseeable future. Because, as you say, you might get stuck with what you book. I’m not much of a gambler.

[Budget Queen]

4 hours ago, mscdivina2016 said:

Well I have been sitting on the side lines and I think your analysis is OK based on the standard products.

 A cruise that sails from point A to Point A on a weekly basis would fit what you are saying, but specialty cruises are the exact opposite.

I as a rule go on longer repo cruises ( not trans) usually B2b2B. These tend to fill up quick and the prices also seem to go up not down so I always try and grab them the 1st hour they appear. I am waiting for 2022 to be released.

 On my last 3 long cruises they all went up in price.

 Right now with the extra 20% off I have managed to grab really decent deals on a 45 night and a 36 night. I doubt anyone could touch them now and even after final payment. Lastly Airfare is a concern so you can't wait last minute for half way around the world cruises.

 You mentioned your $249 above? Can you elaborate? I would like to play.😄 How long was cruise? What was total out the door including everything?

Steve

 

 

I’ve given up a long time ago- trying to predict trends.   Since 1-2019.  I’ve been dealt so many twists and turns.    I late book- very late and cruises that we’re “thought “ to look promising- never dropped.   But- wham an unexpected gem pops up.      So I have actually gotten on some “specialty “  sailings.     

 

Only feature that works with this strategy- is full flexibility-  which I have-   Most do not.    Any limitations-  significantly cut down on possibilities.   

 

No right or wrong.  Best to just know yourself and what is important to YOU.  Me-  it’s itinerary first-  then the fun of snagging a give away deal.   

[mscdivina2016]

26 minutes ago, Budget Queen said:

  it’s itinerary first-  then the fun of snagging a give away deal.   

That sums it up for me too

 

Steve

[NutsAboutGolf]

4 hours ago, latserrof said:

Passengers who pay lower fares tend to spend less aboard

 

I would imagine the perk based model has changed spending habits and many will gladly pay for offers with perks but if it's not included in their perks, they're not going to pay for anything on board.