Random Thoughts on Vaccine Progress

[SirWolf]

2 hours ago, sidari said:

Kenny ... From everything I have read so far the vaccine only protects those who have it from getting a more serious form of the illness, it does not stop you getting the virus nor does it stop you from passing it on so I cannot see how the risk is eliminated given these circumstances. I think far too many people seem to believe that this vaccine is some sort of miracle cure when the reality is that  it will have to be given yearly like the flu vaccine. Friends who had their first jab this week now have to wait 12 weeks for the second one! 

Sidari, the vaccination triggers a response of the body to develop Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein if SARS-CoV-2 is present. Vaccination prevents the virus to multiply and will be fought off by the natural killer cells before disappearing.

How serious a infection will be is a combination of viral load of SARS-CoV-2 and strength of immune system of the patient who is not vaccinated. Vaccines are up to 95% effective , reducing substantially the risk of getting infected.

 

PCR molecular test shows presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus for diagnosing Covid-19 infection -> “detected/positive” or “not detected/negative”.

Lab test for Antibodies shows if the patient has developed IgM (acute Antibodies) and IgG (long-term Antibodies). IgM will disappear shortly after the infection is over but IgG will stay and protect for several months, scientists believe a minimum of 3 months.

This natural immune protection lasts not forever , that’s why it’s important to get vaccinated even after being infected.

Newly developed Lab test shows Antibody Spike Protein after vaccination.

 

Why have your friends to wait 12 weeks for the second vaccination (“booster shot”) ?  The time for the second shot is 21 days for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 28 days for Moderna vaccine. 

 

Best Regards,

Wolf

Edited January 21, 2021 by SirWolf

[sidari]

4 minutes ago, SirWolf said:

Sidari, the vaccination triggers a response of the body to develop Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein if SARS-CoV-2 is present. Vaccination prevents the virus to multiply and will be fought off by the natural killer cells before disappearing.

How serious a infection will be is a combination of viral load of SARS-CoV-2 and strength of immune system of the patient who is not vaccinated. Vaccines are up to 95% effective , reducing substantially the risk of getting infected.

 

Why have your friends to wait 12 weeks for the second vaccination (“booster shot”) ?  The time for the second shot is 21 days for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 28 days for Moderna vaccine. 

 

Best Regards,

Wolf

SW ... The UK Government have decided by making people wait 12 weeks they can vaccinate more people, a news story today says that Southampton Hospital has been warned by the Government not to give the second one at 3 weeks or their Licence Willbe removed and they Willbe stopped from giving the vaccine. Pfizer have said that they cannot guarantee that at 12 weeks immunity from the first one would be above 1%, this from a Government whose mantra when questioned throughout the pandemic has been " we are following the science" Now they choose to ignore the science and the manufacturer. 

[SirWolf]

5 minutes ago, sidari said:

SW ... The UK Government have decided by making people wait 12 weeks they can vaccinate more people, a news story today says that Southampton Hospital has been warned by the Government not to give the second one at 3 weeks or their Licence Willbe removed and they Willbe stopped from giving the vaccine. Pfizer have said that they cannot guarantee that at 12 weeks immunity from the first one would be above 1%, this from a Government whose mantra when questioned throughout the pandemic has been " we are following the science" Now they choose to ignore the science and the manufacturer. 

Sidari, thank you for explaining the situation in the UK. It all comes down to the availability of vaccines and the distribution system to administer the vaccines.

The State of Florida supplies the vaccine in limited quantities to each county but the Health Departments in the counties are overwhelmed and struggle to get a system in place which is effective and works.

They still try to give the second vaccination according to manufacturers recommendation.

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, KennyFla said:

 

Yes.  I'm not a doctor, but nothing can prevent you from breathing in a virus (unless you want to live inside a plastic bag)....  

 

From the WHO:

"Vaccinated people are protected from getting the disease in question and passing on the pathogen, breaking any chains of transmission. Visit our webpage on COVID-19 and vaccines for more detail. "

 

 

 

Kenny,

 

You're not a doctor. You should read the literature CAREFULLY. 🙄

 

An N95 mask is almost 100% effective against virus. A medical mask can be as good as 98%. The problem comes where and when we take the mask off. 

 

BTW, the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines did not measure the efficacy against the disease itself (the presence of covid living in your body). The participants were only tested when they reported symptoms. So, no one knows whether people vax with Pfizer/Moderna will infect others.

 

Astrozeneca actually tested their population of participants. Reporting only 62% efficacy against INFECTION...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55302595

 

So, 1/3 people who were vax will not be protected! 

[Linda the Book Lover]

3 hours ago, sidari said:

Kenny ... From everything I have read so far the vaccine only protects those who have it from getting a more serious form of the illness, it does not stop you getting the virus nor does it stop you from passing it on so I cannot see how the risk is eliminated given these circumstances. I think far too many people seem to believe that this vaccine is some sort of miracle cure when the reality is that  it will have to be given yearly like the flu vaccine. Friends who had their first jab this week now have to wait 12 weeks for the second one! 

So true about the vaccine not being a cure all. Just like the flu vaccine, I get every year this will be in my vaccine cycle, hopefully at the same time unless the doctor deems not a good idea. My husband and I had to get a two-part Shingles vaccine because of a new strain or something or another after we had the original one years ago. There is no cure all to anything while we live. 

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Kenny,

 

You're not a doctor. You should read the literature CAREFULLY. 🙄

 

An N95 mask is almost 100% effective against virus. A medical mask can be as good as 98%. The problem comes where and when we take the mask off. 

 

BTW, the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines did not measure the efficacy against the disease itself (the presence of covid living in your body). The participants were only tested when they reported symptoms. So, no one knows whether people vax with Pfizer/Moderna will infect others.

 

Astrozeneca actually tested their population of participants. Reporting only 62% efficacy against INFECTION...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55302595

 

So, 1/3 people who were vax will not be protected! 

Kenny,  Even assuming a N95 or KN95 mask is at least 95% effective at stopping a virus from entering the nose or mouth, that assumes the wearer knows how to properly fit and wear the mask.  From what I have seen most folks do not wear any mask correctly.   I say this having some training (I was a Paramedic in another life) and always wearing a N95 mask myself.

 

All that being said, COVID can likely be transmitted through eye contact (most viruses can enter the body through the eye) which is why you will see surgeons often wearing eye protection.  Some cautious folks do wear a decent mask and also a face shield...but the face shields allow a lot of airflow so are really not very effective against any aerosolized virus.

 

Personally, DW and I always wear masks when appropriate (especially indoors when around other people) but recognize that this is not 100% effective.  Bottom line is that nothing is 100%....but each effort at mitigation improves the odds of one not contracting the virus.  If everyone on a ship was vaccinated (100% of passengers and crew) the likelyhood of COVID cases on that vessel with be very small.  The reality of life is that all we can do is seek to lower the COVID risk as much as reasonably possible and then must just accept that this is one more bug in our world which will likely always co-exist with humans.

 

Hank

[KennyFla]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Kenny,

 

 

 

So, 1/3 people who were vax will not be protected! 

 

This is an extremely irresponsible statement.  As was said before, the vaccine can not stop the virus from entering your body, it protects you against the ravages of the disease.  There is some question what infection actually means, the post by Sir Wolf earlier I took to mean infection as an advanced stage the virus has reached in your body.  The vaccine prevents that.

 

 

[KennyFla]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

  If everyone on a ship was vaccinated (100% of passengers and crew) the likelyhood of COVID cases on that vessel with be very small.  The reality of life is that all we can do is seek to lower the COVID risk as much as reasonably possible and then must just accept that this is one more bug in our world which will likely always co-exist with humans.

 

Hank

Agree.  I think that's why the cruise lines will go the vaccine route.

[sidari]

1 hour ago, KennyFla said:

Agree.  I think that's why the cruise lines will go the vaccine route.

That being the case families will be unable to cruise with kids, as there is currently no vaccine for them.

[Preziosa]

There Will not Be many people to sail with because in the first many month it s only elderly and sick people who get the vaccine. Why not start with a 24 hour test result and when people have Got the chance to get the vaccine They Can ask for a vaccine passport.

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, sidari said:

That being the case families will be unable to cruise with kids, as there is currently no vaccine for them.

Very good point for which I have no answers.  But it is likely that one or more of the vaccines will soon be approved for children.   Testing is currently underway.

 

Hank

[sidari]

50 minutes ago, Preziosa said:

There Will not Be many people to sail with because in the first many month it s only elderly and sick people who get the vaccine. Why not start with a 24 hour test result and when people have Got the chance to get the vaccine They Can ask for a vaccine passport.

MSC currently have protocols that have worked well so far and have only been undone by a few passengers failing to follow the rules, this system to me seems the way forward for the time being and excludes few people.

[Linda the Book Lover]

3 hours ago, sidari said:

MSC currently have protocols that have worked well so far and have only been undone by a few passengers failing to follow the rules, this system to me seems the way forward for the time being and excludes few people.

I was so sad when MSC canceled our March cruise but then it was leaving from the US. 

 

[HappyInVan]

I'm not a medical person. Still, let me offer this perspective.

 

Covid19 is not the typical respiratory illness. It is freaking dangerous because the virus travels to a number of vital organs, replicates, causing serious complications and possible death/disability eventually.

 

As someone who was infected in May, I can offer some information about toes that turned black like gangrene. Fingers that turned into sausages. The mental confusion that resulted in serious burns on my forearms. In early December, my pulse suddenly hit 150, as I sat at my desk.

 

Therefore, it is not enough for a vaccine to give relief from respiratory symptoms by moderating the infection.

 

Ideally, a vaccine should stop covid19 from replicating altogether. A sniffle and/or an elevated temperature means that the infection is advancing. Signaling that the person is possibly infectious, at least at close range.

 

Eventually, the body may defeat covid. But, has anyone else been infected?

 

What about the new strains that are proliferating?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-concern-canada-1.5879223

 

We have made quick and major progress on the vaccines. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the war is won. Let's not forget that covid has no interest in movies or social media. It's only purpose in life is to replicate. Becoming more infectious makes that possible.

 

 

 

[KennyFla]

11 hours ago, sidari said:

MSC currently have protocols that have worked well so far and have only been undone by a few passengers failing to follow the rules, this system to me seems the way forward for the time being and excludes few people.

 

I understand.  I have not gotten the vaccine yet either.  But a bad experience on a ship that sails out of the US, at least at first, will be catastrophic to an industry that is hanging on by it's fingernails.

[KennyFla]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

I'm not a medical person. Still, let me offer this perspective.

 

Covid19 is not the typical respiratory illness. It is freaking dangerous because the virus travels to a number of vital organs, replicates, causing serious complications and possible death/disability eventually.

 

As someone who was infected in May, I can offer some information about toes that turned black like gangrene. Fingers that turned into sausages. The mental confusion that resulted in serious burns on my forearms. In early December, my pulse suddenly hit 150, as I sat at my desk.

 

Therefore, it is not enough for a vaccine to give relief from respiratory symptoms by moderating the infection.

 

Ideally, a vaccine should stop covid19 from replicating altogether. A sniffle and/or an elevated temperature means that the infection is advancing. Signaling that the person is possibly infectious, at least at close range.

 

Eventually, the body may defeat covid. But, has anyone else been infected?

 

What about the new strains that are proliferating?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-variants-concern-canada-1.5879223

 

We have made quick and major progress on the vaccines. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the war is won. Let's not forget that covid has no interest in movies or social media. It's only purpose in life is to replicate. Becoming more infectious makes that possible.

 

 

 

 

I am sorry you had such a bad experience.  I have not been infected, but know quite a few that have.  They ranged from almost no symptoms to the full blown can't smell, difficult to breathe.  Thankfully, they all made it.

 

It is a nasty disease.  

 

The best weapon we have to fight it is the vaccine.  Time will tell if it is very effective, right now most people think so.  We have tried the mask and lockdown route, the fact that we are 1 year into this and the virus is still raging I propose means that they do not work.

For different reasons.

[SirWolf]

@HappyInVan

Hi,

I am sorry to hear that you have been infected. I had the virus last year with mild to moderate symptoms. 3 weeks after the first symptoms the result was “Not detected/ Negative” but I stayed another week at home to fully recover. My Antibodies increased during and after the infection. The worst part of the infection was psychological, not knowing what to expect and what’s coming next. Covid is not like any other infection, it’s “sneaky” attacking with multiple symptoms. I didn’t go to bed on two nights because of trouble breathing, I was afraid that it will get worse when I sleep and maybe not waking up anymore.. I fully recovered including my sense of smell and taste which I lost for 2 weeks.

 

I got the first dose of Moderna vaccine last week, I am in group 1A as per CDC due to my work in Health Care with direct patient contact. I am not a fan of vaccinations and shots in general but after being infected I couldn’t wait to get the needle in my arm.

 

By the way.. it’s not a new strain of Covid-19 virus, it’s a variant.. BIG difference when it comes to testing and vaccination.

Existing Lab tests will detect the variant and the vaccines are effective against the new variant as per manufacturer.

 

Best Regards,

Wolf

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by SirWolf

[DCGuy64]

1 hour ago, SirWolf said:

@HappyInVan

Hi,

I am sorry to hear that you have been infected. I had the virus last year with mild to moderate symptoms. 3 weeks after the first symptoms the result was “Not detected/ Negative” but I stayed another week at home to fully recover. My Antibodies increased during and after the infection. The worst part of the infection was psychological, not knowing what to expect and what’s coming next. Covid is not like any other infection, it’s “sneaky” attacking with multiple symptoms. I didn’t go to bed on two nights because of trouble breathing, I was afraid that it will get worse when I sleep and maybe not waking up anymore.. I fully recovered including my sense of smell and taste which I lost for 2 weeks.

 

I got the first dose of Moderna vaccine last week, I am in group 1A as per CDC due to my work in Health Care with direct patient contact. I am not a fan of vaccinations and shots in general but after being infected I couldn’t wait to get the needle in my arm.

 

By the way.. it’s not a new strain of Covid-19 virus, it’s a variant.. BIG difference when it comes to testing and vaccination.

Existing Lab tests will detect the variant and the vaccines are effective against the new variant as per manufacturer.

 

Best Regards,

Wolf

 

Sorry to barge in, but I have a question for Sir Wolf: how were you able to get another test done 3 weeks later that showed a negative result? Where I live, you are ineligible to have a follow-up test unless you still have symptoms. (I'm talking about tests that are covered by insurance, BTW, not private labs where you can just pay to get a result). Thank you.

 

[SirWolf]

4 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Sorry to barge in, but I have a question for Sir Wolf: how were you able to get another test done 3 weeks later that showed a negative result?

@DCGuy64

Hi,

my situation is different since I work in a private Clinical Laboratory and I established office policies including Covid-19 PCR testing for staff on regular base and if somebody has symptoms. I have monitored my infection (PCR detected / not detected) and Antibodies (IgM & IgG). To protect patients and staff I waited another 7 days after “not detected / negative” result before going back to the Lab.

Since most employers require “negative” PCR test before employees can come back to work the primary physician should write Lab Order for PCR Test to confirm “negative” infection. No symptoms doesn’t mean that the virus is no longer in the body. Health Insurances should be interested in preventing spread of the virus and making sure only “negative” tested patients go back to work.

Best Regards,

Wolf

 

[sidari]

SW ... What is the % of false positive tests with PCR ? I have read a large number of items that say the figure is very high.

[DCGuy64]

1 hour ago, SirWolf said:

@DCGuy64

Hi,

my situation is different since I work in a private Clinical Laboratory and I established office policies including Covid-19 PCR testing for staff on regular base and if somebody has symptoms. I have monitored my infection (PCR detected / not detected) and Antibodies (IgM & IgG). To protect patients and staff I waited another 7 days after “not detected / negative” result before going back to the Lab.

Since most employers require “negative” PCR test before employees can come back to work the primary physician should write Lab Order for PCR Test to confirm “negative” infection. No symptoms doesn’t mean that the virus is no longer in the body. Health Insurances should be interested in preventing spread of the virus and making sure only “negative” tested patients go back to work.

Best Regards,

Wolf

 

Ah, thank you, your situation is a bit different than the average person, I suspect.

My company is not requiring proof of a negative test in order to return to work, so I probably wouldn't qualify for a test. Thanks for the information, I appreciate it.

[SirWolf]

7 hours ago, sidari said:

SW ... What is the % of false positive tests with PCR ? I have read a large number of items that say the figure is very high.

@sidari

PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) is a highly accurate molecular test and detects genetic material (RNA) of SARS-CoV-2 virus. PCR is considered “Gold Standard” , airlines and countries require negative PCR test for travel/immigration. The accuracy of PCR tests is >99% , false positives are only seen if the test detects fragments of the virus after a patient has been infected and recovered.

That said.. there is no 100% accuracy of any Lab test. Every test is only as accurate as the sample, it starts with the collection of the sample (nasal swab, mouth swab, blood draw). Another factor is cleanliness in the laboratory. Contaminated samples are usually found in cluster of false positive results which reflects on improper handling of specimens and/or reagent.

Each run of patient samples is done with calibrated controls (1x positive and 2x negative) to verify the accuracy of measuring the samples. Each sample gets tested for integrity and the virus. A unusual number of positive results will raise a red flag and highly trained technologists (Laboratory Scientist) will analyze the problem and re-run samples if results are inconclusive or questionable.

[SirWolf]

7 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Ah, thank you, your situation is a bit different than the average person, I suspect.

My company is not requiring proof of a negative test in order to return to work, so I probably wouldn't qualify for a test. Thanks for the information, I appreciate it.

We have patients with Lab Order (Prescription) for Covid-19 re-testing and/or Covid-19 screening on daily base. Health Insurances will most likely cover the test if the physician certified medical necessity by using the correct diagnosis code. Please consult with your primary physician.

[sidari]

Just read that the Deputy Medical Officer for the UK Jonathan Van Tam has said that those who have had the first vaccine have to stay in the house for three weeks for the vaccine to kick in, what are you being told in the US ?

[gotta cruise again]

1 hour ago, sidari said:

Just read that the Deputy Medical Officer for the UK Jonathan Van Tam has said that those who have had the first vaccine have to stay in the house for three weeks for the vaccine to kick in, what are you being told in the US ?

My DH works in a hospital in both a clinic and with critical care patients. He received his 2nd Pfizer shot 8 days ago. He worked the entire time; we aren’t being told in the US to stay home during the 3 weeks between 1st & 2nd shots.