CCL offers another 1 Billion in common stock :(

[BermudaBound2014]

21 hours ago, ldtr said:

Nope.  Smart sharks are not circling.  They are getting a 9+% interest rate on a private offering.  If their was any expectation of a foreclosure they would most likely not be participating because their return would drop significantly if there was a real chance of BK and foreclosure.  

 

"most likely not be participating"............ who said they had to be expecting foreclosure in order to participate?? There are lots of possibilities to profit before BK and foreclosure.

 

21 hours ago, ldtr said:

Considering the CCL's balance sheet is in better shape than NCLH or RCL (as the number show in an earlier posting if there was to be a  foreclosure, the market for even new ships would be pretty non-existent since each of the mass market lines would be in the same shape, and the new ships are too large for the specialty lines and companies which so far have not gone after 3000+ size ships. 

 

You are not thinking outside of the box.  Cruise ships may have purposes other than carrying 3000+ passengers around the Caribbean for a week. 

 

21 hours ago, ldtr said:

Interesting how people seem to be so gleeful about the industry finances, which by the way are still a long way from even a restructure, let alone a foreclosure.

 

I would suggest that minor restructuring has already begun. And I haven't read a single person on this site who is gleeful that the industry continues to fail. Sure, some of us have used this opportunity to generate income, but gleeful is not a word I would use to describe the current fate of an industry I have loved for 30 years. 

 

 

21 hours ago, ldtr said:

The possibility of a foreclosure really only comes up if you start to see capacity leveling out below the 100% range.  At 100% average or over the cash flow is quite sufficient.  May take 10-15 years to totally return to pre-covid debt levels but it would certainly be doable.  Even below 100% if they can show positive cash flow from operations that would pretty much take foreclosure off the table entirely, though it might leave the potential for restructuring in play if occupancy does not grow enough does not grow enough.

 

 

 

 

Again, I don't see foreclosure/BK as the only possibility.  I am less optimistic that they can return to pre-covid debt levels in a 10-15 years. 40 Billion is a LOT of debt and my math just doesn't support this possibility (but admittedly a decade is a long time to predict).

 

We do agree that occupancy numbers are critical in determining the direction this takes. It's still early to know how this will play out with all three cruise lines, but the shorts continue to win the game. 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

, but gleeful is not a word I would use to describe the current fate of an industry I have loved for 30 years. 

 

I almost shed a tear when I read this.  There are very few industries when I have been a "true believer" regarding my investments.  The cruise industry is one.  My investment in Anheuser-Busch proved to be significantly superior to the same amount that I invested in another company at the same time (these were my first tip-toe into owning individual stocks).  

 

Dividends received by either CCL or RCL?  Not in my lifetime, I don't think.  OBC for shareholders?  I think that will be continued.  

[Guest ldtr]

9 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I almost shed a tear when I read this.  There are very few industries when I have been a "true believer" regarding my investments.  The cruise industry is one.  My investment in Anheuser-Busch proved to be significantly superior to the same amount that I invested in another company at the same time (these were my first tip-toe into owning individual stocks).  

 

Dividends received by either CCL or RCL?  Not in my lifetime, I don't think.  OBC for shareholders?  I think that will be continued.  

The cruiselines are a lot like airlines, as one CEO put it, a great industry to work in, not so much to invest in.

 

 

[rkacruiser]

12 minutes ago, ldtr said:

The cruiselines are a lot like airlines, as one CEO put it, a great industry to work in, not so much to invest in.

 

 

Never owned any individual airline stocks, but I have profited greatly by my cruise industry investments over the years because of the dividends paid, the OBC received, and the capital gain that I have experienced pre-Covid.  If I live long enough, those capital gains pre-Covid will return.  I do believe.  

[Guest ldtr]

48 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Never owned any individual airline stocks, but I have profited greatly by my cruise industry investments over the years because of the dividends paid, the OBC received, and the capital gain that I have experienced pre-Covid.  If I live long enough, those capital gains pre-Covid will return.  I do believe.  

If you remove the OBC which varies wildly depending upon the number of cruises you do.  One would have done better for most measured periods (you can find a few where the cruise line stock outperforms by cherry picking the dates) by investing the same amount of money in  the S&P 500 Index fund.

[rkacruiser]

23 hours ago, ldtr said:

If you remove the OBC which varies wildly depending upon the number of cruises you do.  One would have done better for most measured periods (you can find a few where the cruise line stock outperforms by cherry picking the dates) by investing the same amount of money in  the S&P 500 Index fund.

 

I appreciate reading your post.  I have been pleased with my investments in the cruise industry.  Without regard for OBC, which is "icing on the cake", I have no regrets for making the investments that I have done. 

 

One of the more interesting experiences in my life was my attendance at a CCL Annual Meeting in Coral Gables.  I was among one of the few individual shareholders in attendance.  A pre-meeting Continental Breakfast was available at The Biltmore Hotel where my tablemates and I were greeted by a member of the Board of Directors.  After the meeting, I was able to meet and speak with CEO Arison as well as Stein Kruse.  They were affable and Mr. Kruse and I reminisced about that Gala Evening at The Cistern in Istanbul during the 2008 Grand World Cruise.  

 

On 10/23/2022 at 8:17 PM, ldtr said:

by investing the same amount of money in  the S&P 500 Index fund.

 

Doing so, would not have provided me with the same personal experiences that mean much more to me than dollars.

[Mary229]

12 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

One of the more interesting experiences in my life was my attendance at a CCL Annual Meeting in Coral Gables.  I was among one of the few individual shareholders in atte

I own stock in many companies with corporate headquarters in our city just to have a seat in the room.  My favorite experiences were when Herb Kelleher was CEO of Southwest Airlines.  Oh my, he was a real rogue.  It was standing room only with press, shareholders and employees.  Then would stroll in Herb with cigarette dangling in one hand and a bottle of whiskey in the other.   He always, always, always thanked his employees first and foremost.  He would give his spiel then quickly open to questions. The man, a lawyer by training, had a remarkable grasp of all facets of the business.  I remember once there had been a mechanical issue.  He detailed his visits to the hangars where he had the mechanics walk him through the mechanical details.  Then he could explain the issue and the solution. Remarkable.  
Of course my second favorite was Frito Lay where you leave the meeting with a large swag bag of snacks.

[rkacruiser]

1 minute ago, Mary229 said:

Of course my second favorite was Frito Lay where you leave the meeting with a large swag bag of snacks.

 

😄   I know what you are saying!  I was able to attend two shareholder meetings of Anheuser-Busch at Seaworld when they still owned the Parks and the snack company.  Free admission to Seaworld for the day, Eagle Brand snacks and plentiful beer available before and after the meeting, but, don't recall getting an "official" swag bag of the snacks.  But, I did make my own.

 

I am a long time investor in Pepsico and would enjoy attending one of their Annual Meetings, I expect.  Most of the Frito-Lay products are delicious.  I think.  But, there was one recently that was tasteless in its Sour Cream and Onion version.  

 

Because of where you live, you do have an advantage of being more easily able to attend these Annual Meetings.  

[JesseLivermore]

Looks like $6.10 might have been the bottom for CCL. A rising tide raises all ships, pun intended. Hopefully macro trends are up from here and they might return  to double digits soon.

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, JesseLivermore said:

Looks like $6.10 might have been the bottom for CCL. A rising tide raises all ships, pun intended. Hopefully macro trends are up from here and they might return  to double digits soon.

Either that or this is a classic pump getting ready for rcl and nclh to release their quarterlies next week. Nclh already said they expect another loss. CCL is barely holding $8.
 

If history repeats we will see a bump on the “rahrah” part of the release and then a drop once the analysts dig their teeth into the numbers. No one can tell from here- there are just too many balls are in the air. I expect nclh will need to go after more money and all three do respond to any event in sync. 
 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Did some bottom fishing here with CCL .so far so good   . Just hard to tell to far into the future 

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, JesseLivermore said:

Looks like $6.10 might have been the bottom for CCL. A rising tide raises all ships, pun intended. Hopefully macro trends are up from here and they might return  to double digits soon.

This is very likely to be a bear market rally.  Not unusual for the market to rally during November and December.  It largely comes down to if the Fed continues to raise rates.  Expect real view into the market will occur in the 1st quarter when we start to see companies reporting. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Carnival announced the closing of the private offering today:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-announces-closing-200500661.html

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Here is the wording from Carnival's press release. They used this loan at 10.375% interest to pay off monies due at the end of this month (which they were paying 11.5% interest). So, net it's a win if you consider 10.375% interest a 'good deal'. 

 

 

The Issuer will be using the net proceeds from the offering of the New Notes to fund its previously announced tender offer to purchase up to $2,004,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 11.500% First Priority Senior Secured Notes due 2023 (the "2023 Notes"), the related consent solicitation, and the payment of accrued and unpaid interest on the 2023 Notes accepted for purchase and related fees and expenses.

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-announces-closing-24-billion-40-first

[JesseLivermore]

3 hours ago, ldtr said:

This is very likely to be a bear market rally.  Not unusual for the market to rally during November and December.  It largely comes down to if the Fed continues to raise rates.  Expect real view into the market will occur in the 1st quarter when we start to see companies reporting. 

 

fair enough. As long as I can get a few OBCs out of my 100@$7  b/f    7/23

[Mary229]

3 hours ago, ldtr said:

This is very likely to be a bear market rally.  Not unusual for the market to rally during November and December.  It largely comes down to if the Fed continues to raise rates.  Expect real view into the market will occur in the 1st quarter when we start to see companies reporting. 

I agree. This is simply a reaction to the fed indicating after the next rate hike November 2 they are going to do some reconsideration. The next rate hike is already baked in.  I think they are simply trying to avoid appearing to influence the elections.  But I think buying CCL as an OBC generator is worthwhile at this level even though my ticket for $5 continues and will not change. 

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I agree. This is simply a reaction to the fed indicating after the next rate hike November 2 they are going to do some reconsideration. The next rate hike is already baked in.  I think they are simply trying to avoid appearing to influence the elections.  But I think buying CCL as an OBC generator is worthwhile at this level even though my ticket for $5 continues and will not change. 

No reason not to if the main goal is to collect lots of OBC.  Just was pointing out that outside of the OBC cruise lines have tended to lag the market.

[mcrcruiser]

swing trading   this cruise stock, ccl ,makes money  in the short term   We dpn't see a easy path    for CCL into next year as consumers are starting to cit back on spending  which will mean more & more specials to try  & attract  new vacationers   .Then the margins will imo be slimmer  & how will CCL pay off that huge debt  ?

[Guardsy]

We recently sailed on HAL (Oct.8-22).  Bought 150 shares of CCL on Oct. 4 @ $7.79.  Figured we would hold 100 shares indefinantly for the cruise credits, and keep 50 shares to sell at some point down the road when the stock goes back up significantly.  All total, we are in for roughly $1,200 cash, and have already been credited (within a day of our stock purchase) with $250 on-board credits, and today the stock is worth $8.70, so we have also picked up $136.50 in stock increase.  So, if we cashed today, we would already be up over $380.

 

We won't sell today or anytime in the near future.  We will hold all 150 shares and see what happens.  While nowhere near rich, $1,200 in CCL stock is a tiny drop in the ocean.  Happy to collect the onboard credits for as long as CCL extends them, but even if they go away, at $7.79 per share, I doubt we will lose anything at all in the long run.  Best case, the onboard credits continue as they have (and we will use them for extras like specialty dining) and the stock price will rise nicely.

 

Maybe someday the stock will rise to $40 per share, we will book a final "stockholder" cruise in a large suite for 10-12 days, we will get our final onboard credits and after the cruise, sell all of our shares and have gotten a nice, leisurely cruise for free when all is said and done.

[BermudaBound2014]

CCL was able to kick the can into 2024 on 87 Million that was due this month. 

 

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-announces-extension-maturity-additional

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

On 10/21/2022 at 7:19 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 There were rumors months ago that the Saudi Sovereignty was interested in purchasing Seabourn. So far, just rumors.

 

 Seems the rumor of the Seabourn sale to the Saudi's has reignited. A travel agent blogger has posted that he received first hand knowledge of the sale at a conference last weekend. Apparently Seabourn sent him a cease and desist but guy isn't budging. Says it's a done deal and is sticking by his first blog.

 

Of course, this is just rumor but there has been quite a bit of interesting discussion on the state of finances for CCL and how this effects HAL so some of you may find this interesting.

 

I shouldn't link direct because this is a travel agent; but anyone can google "Seabourn's Response to "Seabourn Cruise Line Has been Sold!... and my reply". 

 

 

 

 

[Mary229]

12 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 Seems the rumor of the Seabourn sale to the Saudi's has reignited. A travel agent blogger has posted that he received first hand knowledge of the sale at a conference last weekend. Apparently Seabourn sent him a cease and desist but guy isn't budging. Says it's a done deal and is sticking by his first blog.

 

Of course, this is just rumor but there has been quite a bit of interesting discussion on the state of finances for CCL and how this effects HAL so some of you may find this interesting.

 

I shouldn't link direct because this is a travel agent; but anyone can google "Seabourn's Response to "Seabourn Cruise Line Has been Sold!... and my reply". 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if Seabourn wasn’t part of the Bermuda Carnival 12.  I feel that the recent debt package was indeed an owner financing arrangement.  7 down, who are the other 5? 

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I wonder if Seabourn wasn’t part of the Bermuda Carnival 12.  I feel that the recent debt package was indeed an owner financing arrangement.  7 down, who are the other 5? 

I was thinking that they might be carving up the Costa fleet since they have dispatched one ship to Australia and another one to the US?

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I wonder if Seabourn wasn’t part of the Bermuda Carnival 12.  I feel that the recent debt package was indeed an owner financing arrangement.  7 down, who are the other 5? 

 

Well, the Saudi's bought an 8.2% stake in CCL early on in the pandemic. If they have continued to invest at those rates, I can certainly see this rumor being true. 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I was thinking that they might be carving up the Costa fleet since they have dispatched one ship to Australia and another one to the US?

 

I tend to agree that the Costa fleet is also being carved up. They moved 3 (possibly 4) costa ships from Costa officially into Carnival and invented the "Costa by Carnival" brand. 

 

Desperate times require desperate measures. I've said all along that I can't see how CCL can come out of this looking like she did when the pandemic started. Carving up seems reasonable. It's all fine and good when you are making money, but when you are the behemoth in an industry that continues to lose money each day it's a problem. 40 Billion in debt doesn't get paid off anytime soon without pretty drastic measures.

Edited October 30, 2022 by BermudaBound2014